Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

polesheep · 27-10-2020 05:44PM

Wolf359f wrote: »

We don't actually know what restrictions are causing the bigger decreases in infection rate. I'm sure if we stayed at level 3 and cases increased at a faster pace you would be holding the government to account for not following NPHET's advice. And it's advice in the end, blame falls solely on the government either way.

The government failed to hold its nerve in the face of a bully. We should not have jumped into level 5 before intensifying level 3.

OwenM · 27-10-2020 05:44PM

Treepole wrote: »

2nd wave is over. Level 3 was working, but NPHET panicked when their tracing system collapsed and bounced the government into a further lockdown. They should be held to account for destroying large sections of the economy at a critical time of year. Hopefully things will be dropped back to Level 3 in a couple of weeks.

It hadn't even collapsed when they made the first or second recommendation, NPHET have an asymmetrical risk, no deaths and they smell of Roses even if there is no economy to fund a health system 2-3 years from now.

polesheep · 27-10-2020 05:45PM

AdamD wrote: »

I wasn't in favour of level 5, but looking at the rest of Europe it seems to be inevitable, so we've probably done well to get in started earlier.

Its all lose lose for the government

This makes no sense when numbers are dropping as a result of level 3 and a bit.

Treepole · 27-10-2020 05:46PM

Wolf359f wrote: »

We don't actually know what restrictions are causing the bigger decreases in infection rate. I'm sure if we stayed at level 3 and cases increased at a faster pace you would be holding the government to account for not following NPHET's advice. And it's advice in the end, blame falls solely on the government either way.

All the messaging from NPHET and Government up to that point was changes in restrictions needed 3 weeks to start having an effect on case numbers.

They panicked at the end of week 2, low and behold case numbers started dropping in week 3, so these are most definitely the result of level 3 restrictions.

Reckless Abandonment · 27-10-2020 05:48PM

froog wrote: »

Does it not seem awfully coincidental that tracing completely collapsed last weekend and now we have a massive drop in cases? Bear in mind this the effect of a half assed level 3 we are seeing, not level 5.

Anyone i know who's tested positive has contacted everyone the feel could be a close contact. I agree it was a shambles but I don't think to many people will slip the net because of it. This time

caveat emptor · 27-10-2020 05:48PM

screamer wrote: »

I’d love to share your optimism I really would, but I’ll hang tough for a few more days.

I'd love to share the optimism on here too but it let me down before.I'd say we'll have to wait and see. Makes me feel like this the last few days though.

Wolf359f · 27-10-2020 05:49PM

polesheep wrote: »

The government failed to hold its nerve in the face of a bully. We should not have jumped into level 5 before intensifying level 3.

The government took a gamble, they tried level 5 in Dublin for well over 3/4 weeks and didn't see a significant reduction in cases. Every week they prolonged could have caused larger and larger increases in cases.

Tell me, if level 3 didn't reduce cases (as we're not entirely sure it has to a large extent) and cases stayed at 1k a day and hospitals and ICU started filling up, would you still encourage the government to hold their nerve?
And for another week, maybe 2?

Sweet.Science · 27-10-2020 05:49PM

Sir Tony

US2 · 27-10-2020 05:49PM

Amirani wrote: »

I'm not sure that you know what the word 'source' means.

"My wife said" from some random profile on a discussion site isn't what I'd call a source.

Dr Holohan is my dad and he said they test everyone.. see how this works ?

Stheno · 27-10-2020 05:50PM

caveat emptor wrote: »

I'd love to share the optimism on here too but it let me down before.I'd say we'll have to wait and see. Makes me feel like this the last ]

I'd say see what the numbers are like by Friday

We've now had 10 or 11 days with continual drop in the positivity rate which started before the tracing issues

polesheep · 27-10-2020 05:52PM

Wolf359f wrote: »

The government took a gamble, they tried level 5 in Dublin for well over 3/4 weeks and didn't see a significant reduction in cases. Every week they prolonged could have caused larger and larger increases in cases.

Tell me, if level 3 didn't reduce cases (as we're not entirely sure it has to a large extent) and cases stayed at 1k a day and hospitals and ICU started filling up, would you still encourage the government to hold their nerve?
And for another week, maybe 2?

But hospitals are not filling up. I also said that they could have intensified level 3. The cost of going to level 5 doesn't seem to register too well with those who are not badly affected.

froog · 27-10-2020 05:53PM

Reckless Abandonment wrote: »

Anyone i know who's tested positive has contacted everyone the feel could be a close contact. I agree it was a shambles but I don't think to many people will slip the net because of it. This time

huge amounts of close contacts have not been turning up to get tested for months now. but i admire your optimism.

27-10-2020 05:53PM

A bit of glee misplaced here with Level 3 restrictions proven to be working. There is an opportunity now for level 5 to amplify the effect seen at level 3 and drive cases to below the 100 per day level ahead of expectations. Hold our ground for 3 weeks and see where we are would be my opinion. With the potential for rapid testing to be available next month as a complimentary measure, the opportunity is there for a better December than many believed possible. The worst thing we can do through is declare "wave 2" over prematurely

polesheep · 27-10-2020 05:54PM

Deleted User wrote: »

A bit of glee misplaced here with Level 3 restrictions proven to be working. There is an opportunity now for level 5 to amplify the effect seen at level 3 and drive cases to below the 100 per day level ahead of expectations. Hold our ground for 3 weeks and see where we are would be my opinion. With the potential for rapid testing to be available next month as a complimentary measure, the opportunity is there for a better December than many believed possible. The worst thing we can do through is declare "wave 2" over prematurely

As I said above, the cost of going to level 5 doesn't seem to register too well with those who are not badly affected.

Boggles · 27-10-2020 05:55PM

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

Well, I'm sure we can all agree that the reproductive rate is now below 1. Happy days indeed . I look forward to Dr Nolan's modelling on Thursday.

Nuance wouldn't be a tool you'd use too often would it?

Amirani · 27-10-2020 05:56PM

Treepole wrote: »

All the messaging from NPHET and Government up to that point was changes in restrictions needed 3 weeks to start having an effect on case numbers.

They panicked at the end of week 2, low and behold case numbers started dropping in week 3, so these are most definitely the result of level 3 restrictions.

It's not 3 weeks until you start seeing any effect, more like to see the full effect.

A move to level 5 can have an impact in as little as 1 week. Someone who is infectious on the day the new restrictions are brought in are immediately hampered in their ability to spread the infection to someone else, who would end up likely getting tested 4-5 days after getting infected.

This "3 weeks to see any effect" thing is yet another example of people not understanding how statistics work.

prunudo · 27-10-2020 05:56PM

froog wrote: »

huge amounts of close contacts have not been turning up to get tested for months now. but i admire your optimism.

Are these the same people who arrived at test centres to be given out to for missing slots that they knew nothing about on previous days.

caveat emptor · 27-10-2020 05:57PM

Deleted User wrote: »

A bit of glee misplaced here with Level 3 restrictions proven to be working. There is an opportunity now for level 5 to amplify the effect seen at level 3 and drive cases to below the 100 per day level ahead of expectations. Hold our ground for 3 weeks and see where we are would be my opinion. With the potential for rapid testing to be available next month as a complimentary measure, the opportunity is there for a better December than many believed possible. The worst thing we can do through is declare "wave 2" over prematurely

In three weeks time we should also see the effect of the schools closing so it might be artificially lower as it's estimate it has quite an effect on the R number (~.45 on the R number SAGE UK version of NPHET) .

That would be perfect for Christmas shopping season. Not so sure about Christmas though as there is quite a way to go. Fingers crossed big time for that.

Goldrickssan · 27-10-2020 05:57PM

I ****ing hate level 5 and was against it. But were in it now so lets just do the thing. If level 3 has already softened up the numbers level 5 for 6 weeks should have us in a far better position than Sir Tony and friends had predicted. They certainly don't seem to have predicted these drops from level 3

iamwhoiam · 27-10-2020 05:58PM

Stheno wrote: »

I think we all have days like that. Its the never endingness of it, with no finish line in sight for me

Hopefully we'll get some good news about vaccines soon and there will be an end in sight however long it takes

Take care

Thank you ! I think I will just go to bed early and start again tomorrow .
Take care too

27-10-2020 05:59PM

polesheep wrote: »

As I said above, the cost of going to level 5 doesn't seem to register too well with those who are not badly affected.

The benefit may be a level 2/3 over Christmas though

polesheep · 27-10-2020 05:59PM

Goldrickssan wrote: »

I ****ing hate level 5 and was against it. But were in it now so lets just do the thing. If level 3 has already softened up the numbers level 5 for 6 weeks should have us in a far better position than Sir Tony and friends had predicted. They certainly don't seem to have predicted these drops from level 3

Are you still working during level 5?

Sweet.Science · 27-10-2020 06:00PM

polesheep wrote: »

Are you still working during level 5?

Of course they are

polesheep · 27-10-2020 06:01PM

Deleted User wrote: »

The benefit may be a level 2/3 over Christmas though

But it won't be a joyful Christmas for those whose jobs or businesses are gone. The government should have held its nerve. Ramped up level 3 if they felt it necessary, but jumping to 5 was not necessary.

iamwhoiam · 27-10-2020 06:02PM

tigger123 wrote: »

Think everyone has days like that sometimes. I had it myself yesterday; it won't last forever though!

Thank you . Sometimes I think offloading on here helps . I hate to bug people around me and worry I will drag them down with me

Wolf359f · 27-10-2020 06:02PM

caveat emptor wrote: »

In three weeks time we should also see the effect of the schools closing so it might be artificially lower as it's estimate it has quite an effect on the R number (~.45 on the R number SAGE UK version of NPHET) .

It can also show once and for all if school kids are driving the spread.
If they have a lower positivity rate than the community, you would expect the effect of schools closed for a week would have a noticeable increase in their positivity rate.

Goldrickssan · 27-10-2020 06:03PM

polesheep wrote: »

Are you still working during level 5?

Define work

polesheep · 27-10-2020 06:03PM

Goldrickssan wrote: »

Define work

Being paid for your labour.

Amirani · 27-10-2020 06:04PM

US2 wrote: »

"My wife said" from some random profile on a discussion site isn't what I'd call a source.

Dr Holohan is my dad and he said they test everyone.. see how this works ?

It may not be a source you like, or one you believe, but it is a source. Take a look in the dictionary when you get a chance.

As regards your "see how this works"; a source isn't something that automatically has implied credibility or veracity. So no, you haven't shown how something works at all, other than your English comprehension.

froog · 27-10-2020 06:06PM

if some posters seem pessimistic maybe it's because we've already been complacent once this year and look where it got us.

Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

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