Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

ShayNanigan · 23-10-2020 06:44PM

mloc123 wrote: »

Well if you have an issue with it, report to the guards

None of my business really and doubt they'd do a thing.

Stheno · 23-10-2020 06:44PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I can't believe there's actually people on here who think none of the cases identified last weekend have notified their contacts. Like seriously?

That would be backed up by the GPS saying they were swamped with calls from close contacts this week

But hey its only one day

Hellrazer · 23-10-2020 06:44PM

mloc123 wrote: »

I *assume* the plan will be - level 5 to get the rates back in the 1-200 cases a day range and then level 3 to keep it there.

Plan? They cant even plan what they are having for breakfast never mind a long term plan for dealing with covid.

ACitizenErased · 23-10-2020 06:44PM

Just for people's reference:
Community referrals for the first 4 days this week are already higher than the first 4 days last week. Almost as if people are coming forward for testing :rolleyes:
https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/integrated-information-service-testing-and-contact-tracing-dashboard-23-october-2020.pdf

Sardonicat · 23-10-2020 06:44PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Cases reported yes, not positive tests.

OK. You're going to have to explain the difference to a dope like me.

Russman · 23-10-2020 06:45PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

You're assuming that every single contact at the weekend is not getting tested, a bizarre and unbelievable assumption.

How are you getting that from my post ? I never said anything of the sort.

ACitizenErased · 23-10-2020 06:46PM

Sardonicat wrote: »

OK. You're going to have to explain the difference to a dope like me.

The labs report positive swabs to the HPSC each day. Today it was something like 1030. The HPSC then reports the case. Of the 1030 positive swabs today, the HPSC reported 777 cases. So it's not like cases have magically decreased, the HPSC simply haven't reported some.

Wolf359f · 23-10-2020 06:47PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I can't believe there's actually people on here who think none of the cases identified last weekend have notified their contacts. Like seriously?

You're wasting your time trying to explain, ACE.
If they missed 20,000 close contacts during the week and none came forward, we would see a significant drop in tests done this week and a significant increase in the positive rate. The latter 2 hasn't happened and it's not like they will just randomly swab people to keep up capacity.

ACitizenErased · 23-10-2020 06:47PM

Russman wrote: »

How are you getting that from my post ? I never said anything of the sort.

fewer people will be informed they (may) need a test

Positive cases last weekend were told to tell their contacts to come forward for testing, so that sentence assumes that contacts don't come forward, which is the opposite of what GPs and the referral data says.

Boggles · 23-10-2020 06:48PM

15,000 cases in the last fortnight.

At between 3-5% hospital rate.

Could be a tough couple of weeks for the health service, hopefully the "right" people are getting infected.

ACitizenErased · 23-10-2020 06:48PM

Wolf359f wrote: »

You're wasting your time trying to explain, ACE.
If they missed 20,000 close contacts during the week and none came forward, we would see a significant drop in tests done this week and a significant increase in the positive rate. The latter 2 hasn't happened and it's not like they will just randomly swab people to keep up capacity.

I don't think some on here know that the positivity rate reflects the volume of disease in the community :rolleyes:

froog · 23-10-2020 06:50PM

Wolf359f wrote: »

You're wasting your time trying to explain, ACE.
If they missed 20,000 close contacts during the week and none came forward, we would see a significant drop in tests done this week and a significant increase in the positive rate. The latter 2 hasn't happened and it's not like they will just randomly swab people to keep up capacity.

close contacts are the most likely group of people to test positive. if a load of them are missed and don't present the overall positivity rate goes down.

rob316 · 23-10-2020 06:51PM

lawred2 wrote: »

that's a bit of a facebook post

what have you heard?

I've sold virapro and the supplier was in touch and stated this batch that was tested didn't actually make it into the marketplace.

Russman · 23-10-2020 06:52PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Positive cases last weekend were told to tell their contacts to come forward for testing, so that sentence assumes that contacts don't come forward, which is the opposite of what GPs and the referral data says.

Yes but I never suggested every single contact is not getting tested as you stated I did. I was making the point that not only, as you correctly stated, if tracing collapses, you have widespread community transmission and therefore more cases, but also that if tracing even partially collapses you could have contacts not being informed and not being tested and subsequently miss asymptomatic cases.

ACitizenErased · 23-10-2020 06:52PM

froog wrote: »

close contacts are the most likely group of people to test positive. if a load of them are missed and don't present the overall positivity rate goes down.

If cases are being missed the volume of disease in the community increases, which means the positivity rate increases.

ACitizenErased · 23-10-2020 06:53PM

Russman wrote: »

Yes but I never suggested every single contact is not getting tested as you stated I did. I was making the point that not only, as you correctly stated, if tracing collapses, you have widespread community transmission and therefore more cases, but also that if tracing even partially collapses you could have contacts not being informed and not being tested and subsequently miss asymptomatic cases.

Which would result in the positivity rate increasing, and as a result, cases increasing, which isn't happening.

froog · 23-10-2020 06:53PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

If cases are being missed the volume of disease in the community increases, which means the positivity rate increases.

eventually. you will see a drop first.

ACitizenErased · 23-10-2020 06:55PM

froog wrote: »

eventually. you will see a drop first.

I'll talk to ya in a week so ya?

Sardonicat · 23-10-2020 06:55PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I don't think some on here know that the positivity rate reflects the volume of disease in the community :rolleyes:

You're being very smug about having a better grasp of how this works than some of us, TBH. You still haven't explained why the all positive cases wouldn't be reported, for example. I'm sure the reason is blisteringly obvious to you and my asking will give you a good chuckle . I'm not doubting your knowledge or information at all, BTW, I just don't understand why several hundred positive swabs have been left out of today's reported 'cases".

Widdensushi · 23-10-2020 06:59PM

froog wrote: »

close contacts are the most likely group of people to test positive. if a load of them are missed and don't present the overall positivity rate goes down.

People are sensible enough to do their own contact tracing for the most part, a case near me this week where the community ensured all contracts were tested

Wolf359f · 23-10-2020 06:59PM

froog wrote: »

close contacts are the most likely group of people to test positive. if a load of them are missed and don't present the overall positivity rate goes down.

Symptomatic people are the most likely to test positive.
If the 20,000 close contacts of a confirmed case didn't request a test we would see a big drop in testing figures/community referrals and and a result we would see an increase in positivity rate.

The number of positive cases whose close contacts were not traced by track and trace was 2500. With an average of 4 close contacts, that could be 10,000 people needing a test. Of which ~12% will be positive (1200), of the 1200, ~60-80% (720-960) will develop symptoms and I would assume seek a test.

seamus · 23-10-2020 07:00PM

froog wrote: »

eventually. you will see a drop first.

Because?

sonofenoch · 23-10-2020 07:03PM

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

Are clothes non essential anymore, nude all around so

Far less likley to spread the Coov buying spuds and cabbage than going for jeans and a tee shirt .....................imo

Boggles · 23-10-2020 07:04PM

Tracing collapsed nearly 3 weeks ago and by the sounds it has got worse.

We simply are finding less cases now then we were before that.

Track and Trace 101.

How many more indicators of a clusterfúck behind the scenes do we need before we declare it a clusterfúck?

NPHET are very protective of the public health officials doing the tracking and tracing and Nolan especially goes out of his way nearly every briefing to praise them to the nth degree because he well knows how much pressure they are under and if they down tools we are proper fúcked.

froog · 23-10-2020 07:08PM

seamus wrote: »

Because?

because a collapse/slowdown in contact tracing will have an immediate impact on cases.

it could take 1-2 weeks to see an increase due to the impact of untested positives infecting other people.

Away With The Fairies · 23-10-2020 07:09PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I can't believe there's actually people on here who think none of the cases identified last weekend have notified their contacts. Like seriously?

People are arseholes, if they don't have symptoms, people will think they're fine and carry on.

seamus · 23-10-2020 07:10PM

froog wrote: »

because a collapse/slowdown in contact tracing will have an immediate impact on cases.

it could take 1-2 weeks to see an increase due to the impact of untested positives infecting other people.

That's not what you said.

You claimed it would cause a sudden drop in cases. Why?

ACitizenErased · 23-10-2020 07:11PM

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

People are arseholes, if they don't have symptoms, people will think they're fine and carry on.

Thinking that about people is incredibly naive.

niallo27 · 23-10-2020 07:13PM

froog wrote: »

because a collapse/slowdown in contact tracing will have an immediate impact on cases.

it could take 1-2 weeks to see an increase due to the impact of untested positives infecting other people.

Will you stop being so miserable and just try be a bit optimistic for once.

pjohnson · 23-10-2020 07:13PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Thinking that about people is incredibly naive.

???

People have been shíting around the place with symptoms while waiting for (their positive) test result.

Why do you suddenly think people are gunna behave responsibly?

Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

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