Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

Will Yam · 23-10-2020 04:21PM

Boggles wrote: »

I can show you 4 days of corresponding data in Dublin to show that it had slumped completely.

That's why people don't make concrete assumptions on 4 days of data.

The reality is we dropped the positivity rate by 0.4% but we did 16,000 more tests.

There is a test for everyone in the audience now if they want one.

Also I'm pretty sure the metric used is confirmed positive cases, not swabs.

I’m not suggesting that 4 days data forms the basis for a decision. One would need at least a 14 day average fall to make that sort of decision.

My point is that nphet and Rte focus exclusively on the negative side of it. There are tentative positive signs here (which could be dashed) but no mention is made of it.

Boggles · 23-10-2020 04:23PM

Will Yam wrote: »

My point is that nphet and Rte focus exclusively on the negative side of it. There are tentative positive signs here (which could be dashed) but no mention is made of it.

Nolan referenced the falling positive rate twice last night.

He also echoed your concerns that it is too early to tell.

So what exactly do you want NPHET to say?

CIARAN_BOYLE · 23-10-2020 04:23PM

Will Yam wrote: »

I think you may be right here.

But why do rte ignore any positive news?

I believe the estimation is that it's unimportant.

Let's say we missed contact tracing 2k people over the weekend and asked them to do their own contact tracing. An average person has 5.6 contacts. The average positivity rate among contacts is 13%.

11,200 people who should have gotten a test over the last few days didn't get one. This probably means 1450 cases was missed over a few days. Now they may have been picked up again by people doing their own contact tracing. Or people doing their own contact tracing misses close contacts and instead tests a lot of extra casual contacts.

Either way I feel that the last few days of results are heavily distorted and am refusing to get too tied into the stats of them.

Mullaghteelin · 23-10-2020 04:27PM

Will Yam wrote: »

But why do rte ignore any positive news?

RTÉ's job is to scare us into staying at home and obey the rules. RTE is a mere arm of the government's propaganda machine. Considering how dependent the older generations are on RTÉ for news, RTE's output is akin to elder abuse.

Widdensushi · 23-10-2020 04:30PM

Boggles wrote: »

I can show you 4 days of corresponding data in Dublin to show that it had slumped completely.

That's why people don't make concrete assumptions on 4 days of data.

The reality is we dropped the positivity rate by 0.4% but we did 16,000 more tests.

There is a test for everyone in the audience now if they want one.

Also I'm pretty sure the metric used is confirmed positive cases, not swabs.

But the amount of positives is dropping also, not just the positivity rate

Boggles · 23-10-2020 04:34PM

Widdensushi wrote: »

But the amount of positives is dropping also, not just the positivity rate

Over what time period?

Benimar · 23-10-2020 04:38PM

Widdensushi wrote: »

But the amount of positives is dropping also, not just the positivity rate

Well, not really.

Last 5 days swabs were 970, 905, 1,105, 1,040 and 1,038.

If anything, we had a drop early in the week and it’s creeping back up again.

We had a biggish day in the middle of the week and yes it has dropped from then but there has only been 6 days with a figure higher than today, one of which is yesterday, with a difference of 2.

fabo1thecross · 23-10-2020 04:39PM

Not much wonder with so much confusion around the rule/advice that it got out of hand.

bb1234567 · 23-10-2020 04:43PM

mikekerry wrote: »

Take it as you like that's what I heard.
couldn't give a hoot if you think it's made up I'm just taking it from someone else.

I don't believe rumours unaccompanied by evidence, nor should anyone including you

bodhrandude · 23-10-2020 04:43PM

What happened to the posters who used to give the new case numbers early in the afternoon from a month back, I think Yourdeadwright was one of them.

Boggles · 23-10-2020 04:44PM

bodhrandude wrote: »

What happened to the posters who used to give the new case numbers early in the afternoon from a month back, I think Yourdeadwright was one of them.

Leo had him arrested.

Only room for one leaker in these parts.

Wolf359f · 23-10-2020 04:46PM

Will Yam wrote: »

In the UK they have a better record right now than we do. About 800 cases per day (pro rata) vs c 1200 here.

Where are you getting the UK at 800 vs 1200 in Ireland. What metric are you using?

Widdensushi · 23-10-2020 04:46PM

Benimar wrote: »

Well, not really.

Last 5 days swabs were 970, 905, 1,105, 1,040 and 1,038.

If anything, we had a drop early in the week and it’s creeping back up again.

We had a biggish day in the middle of the week and yes it has dropped from then but there has only been 6 days with a figure higher than today, one of which is yesterday, with a difference of 2.

What were the previous days 1506 and 1370 I think?

Jim_Hodge · 23-10-2020 04:49PM

Will Yam wrote: »

Yes, but you cant say they didnt give level 3 a chance in Dublin. They gave it 5 weeks.

I would accept its too early to say in the case of dublin but the overall drop nationally since Tuesday is encouraging.

My main question is - is there really a correlation between restrictions and number of cases.

In the UK they have a better record right now than we do. About 800 cases per day (pro rata) vs c 1200 here.

And all their pubs restaurants open.

Something doesn’t add up here.

You need to look at those UK figures again. Pro rata they would be 1550-1600 per day for us.

seamus · 23-10-2020 04:54PM

Will Yam wrote: »

I doubt nphet will be referencing this improvement

It'll be interesting to see if they're digging under the mattress for a few extra cases again today.

Happydays2020 · 23-10-2020 04:56PM

seamus wrote: »

It'll be interesting to see if they're digging under the mattress for a few extra cases again today.

Indeed, especially with The Leader on the Late Late Tonight....

Cerco · 23-10-2020 05:03PM

s1ippy wrote: »

More shameful behaviour by the HSE to control the figures surrounding schools.

No other workplace is given this level of careful oversight in how it's handled. If only they were investing the same energy in actually managing the outbreaks instead of suppressing the information and making excuses for not testing.

Nothing at all shameful about this. It merely reflects the priority afforded to a service which is deemed essential to maintain for the good of children and parents. The Dept of Health are doing an excellent job in the current difficult circumstances. I trust the teachers will respond accordingly.

Signore Fancy Pants · 23-10-2020 05:07PM

Theres still a few "non essential" shops open in Dun Laoghaire. Two shoe shops, a greeting card shop, etc.

Hows yer places?

Benimar · 23-10-2020 05:08PM

Widdensushi wrote: »

What were the previous days 1506 and 1370 I think?

Yeah, they were the two ‘biggies’. Was hovering around 900 prior to that.

Stheno · 23-10-2020 05:08PM

Covid cases in half the schools in NI

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/covid-19-found-in-half-the-schools-in-northern-ireland-health-agency-says-1.4389515

Coronavirus has been identified in half of all schools in Northern Ireland since the beginning of term, according to the North’s Public Health Agency (PHA).

Data published by the PHA showed there were 2,030 confirmed cases of Covid 19 in schools between their reopening on August 24th, and October 18th, when schools closed for an extended, two-week half-term holiday.

In total, 608 Covid 19 incidents involving 519 schools were reported, the PHA said.

Almost 40 per cent of those incidents were clusters of between two and five cases, and 11 per cent were clusters of five or more.

Of the 1,789 school-based cases where a pupil/staff breakdown was available, 1,218 cases - or 68 per cent - were among pupils. This equates to 0.37 per cent of school-aged children in Northern Ireland.

There were 390 cases among primary school children, 803 among post-primary, and 25 among pupils attending special schools.

RobertKK · 23-10-2020 05:14PM

Paddygreen wrote: »

But it was the public that failed to listen to the guidelines guys. The reality of the matter is it was rule breaking house party animals and their lack of social distancing and being in it together holding firm that has resulted in us now all wondering if deaths cold grey hand will reach out from the frozen mist for us when the dark cold nights of a grim black winter close in on us all as we all watch the situation get even more stark, hopeless, and sobering on RTE going forward.

Is it the public that lost control of the track and trace system?

It is not like we were warned there would be a second wave and here it is and it is clear the state did feck all to prepare and it is why we are in this lockdown.

The politicians had powers to give the Gardai more powers with house parties, they could have brought in high fines, but no lets blame the public for the state not doing anything meaningful to slow down or prevent unwanted behaviour and for not having the health systems prepared for it.

This current mess stems from both the previous and current governments.

Funsterdelux · 23-10-2020 05:21PM

RobertKK wrote: »

Is it the public that lost control of the track and trace system?

It is not like we were warned there would be a second wave and here it is and it is clear the state did feck all to prepare and it is why we are in this lockdown.

The politicians had powers to give the Gardai more powers with house parties, they could have brought in high fines, but no lets blame the public for the state not doing anything meaningful to slow down or prevent unwanted behaviour and for not having the health systems prepared for it.

This current mess stems from both the previous and current governments.

Hear, hear

babyboom · 23-10-2020 05:21PM

Signore Fancy Pants wrote: »

Theres still a few "non essential" shops open in Dun Laoghaire. Two shoe shops, a greeting card shop, etc.

Hows yer places?

Local flooring shop open here. Bike shop open in the neighbouring village. My daughter works in a bookshop who are staying open as newspapers are apparently an essential service. This despite the fact that there are two supermarkets next door both selling papers. Had to bring shopping to my mother in Beaumont today and traffic was at normal volumes.

mloc123 · 23-10-2020 05:21PM

Stheno wrote: »

Covid cases in half the schools in NI

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/covid-19-found-in-half-the-schools-in-northern-ireland-health-agency-says-1.4389515

Hardly a surprise... I think something like 1 in ever 150 people in the north tested positive in the past 2 weeks?

MerlinSouthDub · 23-10-2020 05:23PM

Benimar wrote: »

Well, not really.

Last 5 days swabs were 970, 905, 1,105, 1,040 and 1,038.

If anything, we had a drop early in the week and it’s creeping back up again.

We had a biggish day in the middle of the week and yes it has dropped from then but there has only been 6 days with a figure higher than today, one of which is yesterday, with a difference of 2.

On the days with 970 and 905, the + rate was higher than it has been for the last 2 days. So, it was just lower numbers of tests on those days.

MerlinSouthDub · 23-10-2020 05:23PM

mloc123 wrote: »

Hardly a surprise... I think something like 1 in ever 150 people in the north tested positive in the past 2 weeks?

Yep - massive community spread will result in cases in schools.

What Username Guidelines · 23-10-2020 05:26PM

Italy really pushing those big numbers now, even after they picked up pace in September they had some suppression, but now it's building very fast.

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1319667404486619136?s=20

Kh1993 · 23-10-2020 05:27PM

Signore Fancy Pants wrote: »

Theres still a few "non essential" shops open in Dun Laoghaire. Two shoe shops, a greeting card shop, etc.

Hows yer places?

Dunnes in Finglas being forced to close off their clothes section today by gardai according to management. You have to queue and enter the supermarket anyway to get to the clothes/home so seems pointless. Bookshop and two clothes shops open as ‘click and collect’.

Tony might tell us later why picking up a jacket in the clothes section after your shopping is so dangerous.

frank8211 · 23-10-2020 05:28PM

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

Yep - massive community spread will result in cases in schools.

Or Cases in schools resulting in massive community spread maybe

poppers · 23-10-2020 05:28PM

Great site with updates on swabs and cases poitivity rate turning hopefully it continues

https://covid19.shanehastings.eu/api/swabs/

Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

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