Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

Cluedo Monopoly · 23-10-2020 12:23PM

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Tony Holohan back for another nice easy state of the nation interview on the Late Late tonight

That is a complete nonsense. No need for it.

Tubridy has been a dose all through this. Patronising.

Roger_007 · 23-10-2020 12:23PM

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Tony Holohan back for another nice easy state of the nation interview on the Late Late tonight

Maybe he’s eying up the job of president the next time it comes up. He’s certainly cultivating his celebrity profile.

JimToken · 23-10-2020 12:23PM

It's looking like a shortage of essential workers is going to cripple us here not covid patients

In our effort to contain the virus we've also mothballed the most essential staff

23-10-2020 12:24PM

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

Speaking of hospitals on another thread

310 yesterday
31 admissions
24 discharges
311 today

Presuming 6 deaths but it might not be.

There is no use trying to reconcile admissions and discharges with total numbers, there a myriad of factors that make it a fools errand. Maybe there are some people who had covid, have recovered from the virus, but have other issues that need to be addressed, or have lasting impacts of the virus that require them to remain in hospital, but they can now be included with the general hospital population as they are clear of the virus.

Boggles · 23-10-2020 12:24PM

JDD wrote: »

Well, true. But it might increase the positivity rate also.
Think about it. Say we carry out 10,000 tests a day. 4.000 of those are referred by GPs because they had symptoms. 6,000 are close contacts of positive cases.

I would expect a much higher positivity rate from the GP referrals, because those people actually have symptoms. This was borne out by the first wave, where you could only get a test if you had symptoms, even if you were a close contact. We had a positivity rate of about 15% at the time.

I would expect a lower positivity rate from close contacts, just because most of them are tested before they have enough antigen in their system, and a big proportion of those negative tests don't come back for a second one. Plus the majority of close contacts just didn't catch it.

So if we continue have 4,000 referrals from GPs, and go down to 3,000 close contact tests, our positivity rate should go higher.

I know that's a lot of assumptions though. It could go either way.

GPs don't contact trace.

They have enough to be doing.

normanoffside · 23-10-2020 12:25PM

Roger_007 wrote: »

Maybe he’s eying up the job of president the next time it comes up. He’s certainly cultivating his celebrity profile.

I've been saying this for months. I have no doubt about it.

JP100 · 23-10-2020 12:28PM

Same hand sanitizer being used in Circle K.

https://www.thejournal.ie/circle-k-virapro-5242704-Oct2020/?amp=1&__twitter_impression=true

JDD · 23-10-2020 12:28PM

Boggles wrote: »

GPs don't contact trace.

They have enough to be doing.

? I wasn't suggesting that GPs contact trace.

There'll be less tests carried out on close contacts if the HSE don't actually make contact with those people. Because of the contact tracing system failing.

GPs just refer people who show up on their doorstep. I know that.

KrustyUCC · 23-10-2020 12:28PM

Cluedo Monopoly wrote: »

That is a complete nonsense. No need for it.

Tubridy has been a dose all through this. Patronising.

Yup 100%

Another rallying cry from Tubridy and Holohan incoming

suicide_circus · 23-10-2020 12:28PM

seamus wrote: »

Tbh at this stage, I'd nearly forgive someone for getting into conspiracy theories.

We've seen The NPHET giving briefings saying things are deteriorating, while displaying graphs that show the opposite. Claims that growth was exponential, when the data for that day showed that it had actually stalled.

For months we had a pattern where the daily cases announced were typically 10-20% lower than the number of positive swabs. Then maybe once a week the "backlog" might get cleared in a big numbers day.

Now this week, just as the numbers start to improve, we've had five solid days where the cases announced, exceeded the number of swabs. In one instance, by 30%.

One would definitely be forgiven for thinking that there's a deliberate drive to make things look as bad as possible to try and scare people into compliance.

There is a fair argument that if they started saying, "Uhh...actually it looks like thing are stabilising", then people might take their eye off the ball. But honesty is still required.

If we see another day where the positivity rate is dropping, but the message is still doom and gloom, then my confidence in NPHET's approach will take quite a hit.

Even Joe Soaps who are a lot less au fait with the figures and methodologies than you clearly are can sniff out skulduggery (even well meaning skulduggery) in public messaging which in my estimation is a bad strategy - breeding fear as a governance method is a dark path;
Fear is the path to the dark side…fear leads to anger…anger leads to hate…hate leads to suffering.

giveitholly · 23-10-2020 12:29PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Can anyone imagine the likes of Michael Lowry, Healy Rae's or a Mattie McGrath being elected in Germany.

Or Richard Boyd Barrett,Brid Smith and Paul Murphy

Johnboy1951 · 23-10-2020 12:30PM

JDD wrote: »

Surely it's not the number of tests, but the proportion of positives from the number of swabs carried that will tell us whether we are stabilising or not. Therefore the government can't just reduce the number of tests being carried out and then say "oh look, case numbers are falling".

I haven't followed daily swab numbers, or the positivity rate over the past few days. Is there somewhere handy one would find them?

It appears to me that it is neither the number of tests or the number of positives that matter at all.
They are just headline figures used to 'warn' us of some danger.
Some have called it scare-mongering.

It seems to be the number of vulnerable people who contract Covid that matters.
While we can know that older age causes greater vulnerability as do certain known underlying ill-health issues, there is probably an unknown number of people who have undiagnosed health issues which make them vulnerable also.
That cannot be reasonably estimated I think, although I am open to correction on that thought.

The most reasonable option we have, it seems to me, is to control the spread of the virus to the extent that our health system can cope with the numbers needing treatment, with the eventual aim of the virus touching the whole population.

No restrictions whatsoever would let the virus go like wild fire and overwhelm our health system.
L5 slows it greatly and is good to help start management of the spread, but is impossible to maintain.

What appears to be needed is a full lockdown for a few weeks, then a step back to less restrictions causing an initial spike in manageable hospitalisations, which would drop again allowing a further lessening of restrictions to allow another spike and fall off and so on. Rinse and repeat.
We are in the unfortunate position that this would take a very long time, because our health system cannot really cope with Winter spikes without Covid, so is unlikely to be able to cope, even badly, if Covid becomes an additional factor in Winter.

A lot of money should have been spent on bolstering our health service capacity during the Summer when the virus was not spreading.
We missed the boat and will have a long, drawn out attempt at managing this as a consequence.

Funsterdelux · 23-10-2020 12:31PM

Cluedo Monopoly wrote: »

That is a complete nonsense. No need for it.

Tubridy has been a dose all through this. Patronising.

We've been suffering from "Long Tubridy for far too long.

Funsterdelux · 23-10-2020 12:33PM

JP100 wrote: »

Same hand sanitizer being used in Circle K.

https://www.thejournal.ie/circle-k-virapro-5242704-Oct2020/?amp=1&__twitter_impression=true

They must have some leftover from making biodiesel

Paddygreen · 23-10-2020 12:35PM

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Yup 100%

Another rallying cry from Tubridy and Holohan incoming

I think Tubridy and Dr Hulahoop are doing a great job reminding people that fun + Covid19 = agonized death. The science is settled. You are now TEN TIMES MORE LIKELY to get the terrifying and deadly death inducing disease than you were in march according to Mr T’s new sidekick, don’t recall her name. I miss Rónán guys, his fifth year nerd persona took the edge of the fear for me. He just wasn’t scary enough, they had to get rid of him.

seamus · 23-10-2020 12:42PM

Deleted User wrote: »

The wheel has come off. We can only assume that the virus is now rampant in the community and it will take its own course. The country wont be able to manage this.

You're overstating this really. We're certainly creaking, but we're far from out of control.

The NVRL only does a proportion of the testing, and it is unavailable this weekend and next weekend.

It's obviously not ideal, but it's not like we won't be doing any testing.

Likewise with the contact tracing.

With case numbers starting to reduce, both of these issues are less of a concern. Squeaky bums for the next week or two, but shouldn't be an issue overall.

It does tell us what we need to work on though in preparation for a third wave.

Boggles · 23-10-2020 12:43PM

JDD wrote: »

? I wasn't suggesting that GPs contact trace.

There'll be less tests carried out on close contacts if the HSE don't actually make contact with those people. Because of the contact tracing system failing.

GPs just refer people who show up on their doorstep. I know that.

Well that's not what the GPs are saying.

I'll give you an example.

Tom works in factory in his team is 49 other people. 21 other family he has some contact with.

Tom test positive, has to do his contact tracing, tells his boss, boss says fúck it ye are all getting tested, family says fúck it we are all getting tested.

GPs have been told send them all through.

Now in normal times, the public health experts determine only 8 people fit the criteria of close contacts and Séan who Tom had lunch with and failed to contact and was actually infected would have been picked up on.

So in effect you miss cases you increase the volume of tests and dilute the positivity rate.

With such a high positivity rate anyway we are missing cases, with contact tracing collapsing and now the largest test center in Ireland apparently going part time, the headline figures are not longer a reliable indicator of how much disease is in the community.

It's a double edged sword, certain places will be given priority, care homes, etc.

But we are been told it is impossible keep the virus out of these settings with large uncontrolled community transmission.

That's why it is an absolute scandal further compounded by the absolute cabbage who over saw the muppetry getting off the hook by half apologizing and saying he is aiming to get 70% of things right.

Funsterdelux · 23-10-2020 12:43PM

s1ippy wrote: »

If he's not you, he's definitely Funsterdelux's dark alter ego.

.

Just to confirm

]

HBC08 · 23-10-2020 12:46PM

NIMAN wrote: »

It will take very brave politicians to extend this level 5 beyond 1st December.

I think it would be political suicide.

As for our ability to get the R down to 0.5, I don't think we are going to manage it. Still far too busy on the roads and city centres for that too happen.

I dont think there's a chance of getting the R number to .5.
This lockdown is a bit if a joke,the difference between level 3 and level 5 in reality is the barbers/hairdressers and gyms are closed,that seems to be pretty much it.
The amount of shops ive seen declare themselves essential services is a bit of a farce (I dont blame them by the way)
People (myself included ) will ignore the 5k rule also.All the above combined plus lockdown fatigue,plus the schools staying open plus the 10% of the population who are ****wits in general(see the restrictions thread for example) mean we won't see the R0 num go below 1 by the time this is over in my opinion.
Now despite the rant im staying as positive as possible but also realistic,the next 12 months or so are going to be grim.

E36Ross · 23-10-2020 12:50PM

Swabs NOT being tested this weekend,

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40069895.html?fbclid=IwAR2hFx2Ar8-d3yDAFm3baFj6rSqRLJauiSci5Fi-TVQxTRkRXr0ANUjU69M

Signore Fancy Pants · 23-10-2020 12:52PM

I have been in favour of whatever NPHET and the HSE have advised from the start. Lockdown? No problem, restrict movements? No problem, wear a face mask? No problem.

My wife was recently told that someone from her small gym class tested positive for covid. The class was in a small unventilated room for 45 or so minutes.

She rang her GP and the HSE to see if she needs a test. She was told she would be classed as a casual contact and not to get a test.

Fcuk me, 45+ minutes in a small room with someone with covid yet theres no risk....yet I have to put a mask on to go into the shop for 3 minutes.

The inconsistencies are now starting to annoy the cock off me.

funnydoggy · 23-10-2020 12:52PM

E36Ross wrote: »

Swabs NOT being tested this weekend,

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40069895.html?fbclid=IwAR2hFx2Ar8-d3yDAFm3baFj6rSqRLJauiSci5Fi-TVQxTRkRXr0ANUjU69M

Seriously wtf have they been doing the last six months?!

23-10-2020 12:52PM

mikekerry wrote: »

I heard from 3 people that didn't make the test that they got text messages later that day to say they were positive.
strange.

I believe they are given that message, in that the hope that they behave as if positive, but its not the case that they are counted as positive cases, else there would be a massive discrepancy between positive swabs and confirmed cases

s1ippy · 23-10-2020 12:52PM

Funsterdelux wrote: »

Just to confirm
]

Damn I was sure I had you

is_that_so · 23-10-2020 12:53PM

E36Ross wrote: »

Swabs NOT being tested this weekend,

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40069895.html?fbclid=IwAR2hFx2Ar8-d3yDAFm3baFj6rSqRLJauiSci5Fi-TVQxTRkRXr0ANUjU69M

Message has always been if you've been tested, self-isolate. It amuses me to imagine MoH Louise O'Reilly facing that challenge.

Boggles · 23-10-2020 12:53PM

E36Ross wrote: »

Swabs NOT being tested this weekend,

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40069895.html?fbclid=IwAR2hFx2Ar8-d3yDAFm3baFj6rSqRLJauiSci5Fi-TVQxTRkRXr0ANUjU69M

3 days of tests.

40,000 odd.

We will be the fúcking first country who will have to bring in a harsher lockdown than back in March.

23-10-2020 12:54PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Thanks to hmmm on the vaccine thread for the initial link to this.

Germany getting its house in order for vaccination centres to begin rollout by year end. Looks like Pfizer well on its way to EU approval so.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-germany-vaccine-idUKKBN277342

My wife commented as she queued for the test at Carnmore airport, that the setup was ideal for vaccine rollout

Boggles · 23-10-2020 12:55PM

is_that_so wrote: »

Message has always been if you've been tested, self-isolate. It amuses me to imagine MoH Louise O'Reilly facing that challenge.

People have been ignoring the message wholesale.

It's why it's important to you know.

Test - Trace - Isolate.

23-10-2020 12:55PM

seamus wrote: »

You're overstating this really. We're certainly creaking, but we're far from out of control.

The NVRL only does a proportion of the testing, and it is unavailable this weekend and next weekend.

It's obviously not ideal, but it's not like we won't be doing any testing.

Likewise with the contact tracing.

With case numbers starting to reduce, both of these issues are less of a concern. Squeaky bums for the next week or two, but shouldn't be an issue overall.

It does tell us what we need to work on though in preparation for a third wave.

I hope you are right, my initial reaction was one of 'what else can go wrong now'. I suppose people like to feel reassured that the resources are there and the country is prepared for the worst. There is also an air of covid fatigue in the community.

seamus · 23-10-2020 12:57PM

Decent hospital numbers so far today., 37 in ICU, 311 in hospital.

ICU numbers have only increased 20% in the last 14 days.

Some faint signs that they're stabilising; which would match the stabilisation in cases. But it could just be random correlation. We could easily see another leap in hospital numbers next week.

Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

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