Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

10000maniacs · 23-10-2020 12:04AM

bfa1509 wrote: »

RTE must have read your post. For the first time in the 9 months of coronavirus they had a man with a dissenting opinion that didn't fall in line with RTE and, more specifically, George Lee's apocalyptic agenda they have been peddling relentlessly. (a side note on this, George Lee is a complete and utter poison. I hope one day the history books will expose him for the vile, unscientific fear-monger he has been throughout his career, especially in the last 5 years on the "climate crisis" and Covid19)

I reluctantly give RTE some credit here for finally having a somewhat diverse, constructive and frank debate about the topic this evening. Hopefully it continues. For anyone who didn't see, here's a very interesting snippet from Professor John Lee, a retired consultant pathologist from Sheffield and the NHS who explains the futility of a lockdown:

He is pulling figures out of the air. These are the facts.

Arghus · 23-10-2020 12:09AM

10000maniacs wrote: »

He is pulling figures out of the air. These are the facts.

Yep, saw the interview. He was talking absolute bollocks. Couldn't believe I was hearing him spouting off the same totally incorrect talking points that you'll hear repeated ad-nauseum off random ejits on the internet. Kinda stunning really.

awec · 23-10-2020 12:09AM

majcos wrote: »

Yes. You are right. Comparisons of overall cases numbers are flawed when criteria used to decide who is tested is different. One thousand cases now is probably the equivalent of a few thousand cases in April.

Hospitalizations are a better comparison but also there are still some differences. It was only for a very short period that everyone was hospitalized. That was quickly stopped as numbers rapidly climbed. Relatively sicker people are discharged now with home monitoring so the relative number of hospitalisations now should be lower.

Probably the most accurate comparison is ICU admissions. Differences in this cohort are much less. Anyone admitted to ICU even in April was tested. Broadly the same criteria will lead to someone being in ICU now as it did six months ago.

Hasn't there also been changes in how it's treated though? In terms of what drugs are given, but also around putting people on ventilators? Did they not figure that ventilators may actually be detrimental for patients?

Genuine question, not trying to subtly make a point.

If that were the case, then there were likely people who ended up in ICU in April who would not end up in ICU today, given what we've learnt about the best ways to deal with this virus.

CalamariFritti · 23-10-2020 12:10AM

10000maniacs wrote: »

He is pulling figures out of the air. These are the facts.

As much as he is pulling numbers out of thin air - which he isn't by the way, he is referring to WHO numbers - the only thing you know about your numbers is that they certainly aren't correct.

10000maniacs · 23-10-2020 12:14AM

CalamariFritti wrote: »

As much as he is pulling numbers out of thin air - which he isn't by the way, he is referring to WHO numbers - the only thing you know about your numbers is that they certainly aren't correct.

One thing China has is good scientists.
Based on all 72,314 cases of COVID-19 confirmed, suspected, and asymptomatic cases in China as of February 11, a paper by the Chinese CCDC released on February 17 and published in the Chinese Journal of Epidemiology has found that the risk of death increases the older you are, as follows:

Funsterdelux · 23-10-2020 12:15AM

awec wrote: »

But in June we were still essentially locked down. Social activities, cafes, restaurants etc didn't come until the very end of June.

Again I don't think it's a fair comparison.

Aye, its just statistical

Underattack · 23-10-2020 12:20AM

10000maniacs wrote: »

One thing China has is good scientists.
Based on all 72,314 cases of COVID-19 confirmed, suspected, and asymptomatic cases in China as of February 11, a paper by the Chinese CCDC released on February 17 and published in the Chinese Journal of Epidemiology has found that the risk of death increases the older you are, as follows:

Hardly believe a word out of the CCP's mouth as much as Id like to.

10000maniacs · 23-10-2020 12:21AM

Underattack wrote: »

Hardly believe a word out of the CCP's mouth as much as Id like to.

Ok Donald. :rolleyes:

440Hertz · 23-10-2020 12:23AM

MOR316 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/franmcnulty/status/1319400403088400385

If you’re looking for a good Irish one, Ovelle is a very reliable cosmetics company that also makes Elave, the sensitive skin products.

It’s probably not the best idea to buy no name or unheard of brands of sanitisers if you avoid it.

Tesco for example stocks Garnier hand sanitisers too.

Underattack · 23-10-2020 12:24AM

10000maniacs wrote: »

Ok Donald. :rolleyes:

You blindly believe China?
Ive a bridge to sell you.

10000maniacs · 23-10-2020 12:25AM

Underattack wrote: »

You blindly believe China?
Ive a bridge to sell you.

I have no reason not to, well the scientists anyway.

WoollyRedHat · 23-10-2020 12:25AM

majcos wrote: »

Is all tracing not retrospective from the index case?

Cases that had not been contact traced up to two days ago are being left to alert contacts themselves. The system was ‘reset’ so that HSE tracers are dealing with more recent cases. Terrible that they had fallen behind but the idea of a reset is logical.

If they kept trying to deal with backlog and did not catch up with recent cases, the tracers would be spending time with people whose contacts if positive had already exposed their contacts. If catch and trace more recent cases, then there is opportunity to limit the exposure of the contacts to others before that exposure occurs or if positive, while they are still less likely to be infectious.

Yes that would be the goal but it seems we have been massively lagging on this regard. Did a quick search on this and got the following from IT:

www.irishtimes.com/news/health/investment-in-more-detailed-contact-tracing-needed-to-reveal-key-covid-19-trends-1.4360792%3fmode=amp

I think we have used retrospective tracing previously but lost the ability as soon as the case load became unmanageable. At 1,000 cases it becomes much harder to do. The more public health doctors the more manageable it becomes, it's a multidisciplinary effort involved . We need antigen testing in parallel to increase in public health doctors to achieve an effective retrospective tracing programme, with a clear isolation policy but I believe we won't be able to achieve this until cases come down.

Underattack · 23-10-2020 12:28AM

10000maniacs wrote: »

I have no reason not to, well the scientists anyway.

Dont get me wrong...you already have calling me donald!!

Id love nothing more than those figures to be correct.
Chinese scientists all under the thumb of the party,if not they get suicided.

CalamariFritti · 23-10-2020 12:30AM

10000maniacs wrote: »

One thing China has is good scientists.
Based on all 72,314 cases of COVID-19 confirmed, suspected, and asymptomatic cases in China as of February 11, a paper by the Chinese CCDC released on February 17 and published in the Chinese Journal of Epidemiology has found that the risk of death increases the older you are, as follows:

But of course you know that number of confirmed infections and true number of infections are not the same. And that the true number is obviously bigger than the confirmed number. WHO estimates that 10% of the world population have been infected but only 5% of those 10% are actually confirmed. 790m infected. 1m dead. That would make it 0.013% IFR.

The Ioannides numbers (also WHO) that the doctor is quoting go higher as they are based on seroprevalence studies and partial estimates. He goes with 0.05% for < 70s and 0.23% overall.

If you ran the numbers from the HSE reports over the last 3 months you wouldnt even get to your numbers or anywhere near.

Not saying covid is nothing and covid doesnt kill people and not saying we truly know for sure how small or big the numbers really are. But we know its nowhere near any of your numbers. Not even remotely.

10000maniacs · 23-10-2020 12:31AM

Underattack wrote: »

Dont get me wrong...you already have calling me donald!!

Id love nothing more than those figures to be correct.
Chinese scientists all under the thumb of the party,if not they get suicided.

Science is science. I believe what they have published.
And because of their unique lockdown in the Spring, their figures would be more accurate than most.

23-10-2020 12:31AM

Im just wondering if they are using that Virapro in Nursing homes for staff and patients, and if so, could prolonged use of that be making staff and patients more vunerable to Covid?

Wonder will we be told what levels of Methanol where in the product and what if any dangers it has posed to children and teachers in schools.

10000maniacs · 23-10-2020 12:32AM

CalamariFritti wrote: »

But of course you know that number of confirmed infections and true number of infections are not the same. And that the true number is obviously bigger than the confirmed number. WHO estimates that 10% of the world population have been infected but only 5% of those 10% are actually confirmed. 790m infected. 1m dead. That would make it 0.013% IFR.

The Ioannides numbers that the doctor is quoting go higher as they are based on seroprevalence studies and partial estimates. He goes with 0.05% for < 70s and 0.23% overall.

If you ran the numbers from the HSE reports over the last 3 months you wouldnt even get to your numbers or anywhere near.

Not saying covid is nothing and covid doesnt kill people and not saying we truly know for sure how small or big the numbers really are. But we know its nowhere near any of your numbers. Not even remotely.

But your point is irrelevant, because all of those 72,314 people were infected with the virus.

Sawduck · 23-10-2020 12:34AM

What's going on up in Dublin, hearing that the guards were attacking people, surely that's lies our country hasn't become America has it

Underattack · 23-10-2020 12:36AM

Sawduck wrote: »

What's going on up in Dublin, hearing that the guards were attacking people, surely that's lies our country hasn't become America has it

Hardly...guards attacking people with what?..they havent got anything lol

majcos · 23-10-2020 12:39AM

awec wrote: »

Hasn't there also been changes in how it's treated though? In terms of what drugs are given, but also around putting people on ventilators? Did they not figure that ventilators may actually be detrimental for patients?

Genuine question, not trying to subtly make a point.

If that were the case, then there were likely people who ended up in ICU in April who would not end up in ICU today, given what we've learnt about the best ways to deal with this virus.

None of the treatments have individually made a major impact so far. Most recent HSE guidance document on treatment has advised against use of some of the medications which were used in early phases such as hydroxychloroquine, azithromycin and lopinavir/ritonavir.

This guidance lists use of steroids either dexamethasone or hydrocortisone but this would not be something new. Steroids have been used for respiratory illnesses for many years and many physicians would have instinctively tried them in patients with Covid as far back as April.

It also lists remdesivir but the data in this is still very mixed. US FDA have just approved it based on study showing it cut recovery time from 15 days to 10 days but WHO had announced a few days earlier that death rates were not improved with it. WHO data has been critiqued as it pooled data from hundreds of hospitals in over 30 countries so comparison between patients may be flawed.

Tocilizumab listed in HSE guidance as a possibility and it has been used in some patients as far back as April but NEJM study published yesterday with 243 patients did not show a difference in outcomes.

Awareness of the coagulation/clotting increased over the first few weeks so that may have helped a bit as hospitalized sicker patients are put on anticoagulation preemptively although that would be a common measure in sicker hospitalized patients anyway long before Covid.

Spanish Eyes · 23-10-2020 12:41AM

Underattack wrote: »

Hardly...guards attacking people with what?..they havent got anything lol

The usual rent a mob again...

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/crime-and-law/nine-charged-following-clashes-between-garda%C3%AD-anti-lockdown-protesters-1.4388742

majcos · 23-10-2020 12:47AM

awec wrote: »

Hasn't there also been changes in how it's treated though? In terms of what drugs are given, but also around putting people on ventilators? Did they not figure that ventilators may actually be detrimental for patients?

Genuine question, not trying to subtly make a point.

If that were the case, then there were likely people who ended up in ICU in April who would not end up in ICU today, given what we've learnt about the best ways to deal with this virus.

Re ventilation, it would only be used as a last resort when someone is in respiratory failure that hasn’t responded to oxygen so at that point you have nothing to lose as patient is going to die of hypoxia if not ventilated. I doubt anywhere in Ireland was ventilating people too early in April as ICU was already at a critical capacity so only those who really needed ventilation and were not maintaining oxygen levels even with high percentages of oxygen through masks and non invasive ventilation were ventilated.

Underattack · 23-10-2020 12:51AM

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

The usual rent a mob again...

Link not working for me,but i assume you mean the anti mask retards?

majcos · 23-10-2020 12:52AM

awec wrote: »

But in June we were still essentially locked down. Social activities, cafes, restaurants etc didn't come until the very end of June.

Again I don't think it's a fair comparison.

I think that was the point of the comparison. When things were restricted the chances of catching Covid dropped very low because of the restrictions with a 14 day incidence rate of 3 per 100,000 but now NPHET see a reason to recommend increasing restrictions again as chances of catching it are much higher with the 14 day incidence rate of 302 per 100,000.

Spanish Eyes · 23-10-2020 12:58AM

Underattack wrote: »

Link not working for me,but i assume you mean the anti mask retards?

Gemma's luvvies. See the Gemma thread for very satisfying feeds of the Gardai having a go at these lunatics on Grafton Street tonight. We need to be saved from them! Substances involved or other issues in their heads. Who the feck would be bothered with this kind of nonsense. But there's nowt quare as folk I suppose.

stephenjmcd · 23-10-2020 01:01AM

Underattack wrote: »

Link not working for me,but i assume you mean the anti mask retards?

Yeah anti mask / anti lockdown whatever they've called themselves this week. They were blocking roads around the city and then tried to block the roads at the port and were met by Gardai so they then walked back into town and again blocked from Kildare Street by Gardai, a few of them ended up on Grafton street and decided to have a go at the Gardai.
Public order unit got involved along with regular officers, few videos going around, safe to say the Gardai got a good few digs in.

Anyway 9 charged

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/nine-people-due-in-court-and-two-cautioned-after-gardai-forced-to-intervene-during-anti-lockdown-protest-in-dublin-39657380.html

Underattack · 23-10-2020 01:05AM

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Gemma's luvvies. See the Gemma thread for very satisfying feeds of the Gardai having a go at these lunatics on Grafton Street tonight. We need to be saved from them! Substances involved or other issues in their heads. Who the feck would be bothered with this kind of nonsense. But there's nowt quare as folk I suppose.

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Yeah anti mask / anti lockdown whatever they've called themselves this week. They were blocking roads around the city and then tried to block the roads at the port and were met by Gardai so they then walked back into town and again blocked from Kildare Street by Gardai, a few of them ended up on Grafton street and decided to have a go at the Gardai.
Public order unit got involved along with regular officers, few videos going around, safe to say the Gardai got a good few digs in.

Anyway 9 charged

Not keen on the lockdown myself but yeh them clowns need a few slaps of the baton to soften their cough

Kickstart1.3 · 23-10-2020 01:08AM

We`re the clowns.

stephenjmcd · 23-10-2020 01:08AM

Underattack wrote: »

Not keen on the lockdown myself but yeh them clowns need a few slaps of the baton to soften their cough

Decent video there of the Gardai getting a few slaps in

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=649137669126024&id=100020893912279

Underattack · 23-10-2020 01:11AM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Decent video there of the Gardai getting a few slaps in

Filmed on a potato.

Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

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