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Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

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Comments

  • #1922
    iamwhoiam
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,282 ✭✭✭✭iamwhoiam


    https://www.irishexaminer.com/opinion/commentanalysis/arid-40068212.html


    Couldn’t have put it better myself
    Anger is where my emotions are stuck too now


  • #1923
    pc7
    Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 14,293 Mod ✭✭✭✭pc7


    mfceiling wrote: »
    Can anyone advise me on this?

    I'm self employed and I need to get all my paperwork and laptop to my accountant tomorrow night.

    Would I be ok to travel 30kms to drop off everything to his house so he can complete my end of year returns?

    Thanks.


    of course you will be fine, but the deadline for returns has been extended to December according to our accountant. Maybe check with yours.


  • #1924
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,802 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    caveat emptor wrote: »
    Gonna be honest (again).

    I don't like you for minimising reasons. :eek:

    That really made me laugh.] Thank you.

    Good man/ woman.
    I am shocked that you don't like me


  • #1925
    Polar101
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,101 ✭✭✭Polar101


    Boggles wrote: »
    Contact tracing has utterly collapsed.

    Swabs today will be a guesstimate of how much disease there is out there.

    While it's a shambles, I think that's overplaying the situation a bit. They haven't stopped to do contact tracing, they are still doing as much as they can - even if it means not everyone will be traced. Some of the ones who aren't contacted will be able to inform their contacts. Non-traced contacts who are positive will still be contacting their GPs if they display symptoms. And testing capacity seems to have increased from the previous 100k a week to something like 120k a week.

    So a lot of the cases are still being detected.


  • #1926
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 5,121 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    AlphaDelta1 wrote: »
    The Russians are already successfully using a vaccine with good results. They are actually sending out a second vaccine shortly also. Not sexy enough for western media though.

    I think that this is a realistic expectation setting piece on how a vaccine would work and how it would not be a magic wand to bring us back to the old normal

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/21/covid-vaccine-immunisation-protection


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  • #1927
    Softshoulder
    Site Banned Posts: 49 ✭Softshoulder


    mohawk wrote: »
    Some regulatory bodies set higher standards than others. I wouldn’t say it’s just Europe and USA but Brazil and Japan have reputations for high standards.
    The fact is the Russian and Chinese vaccines have not been put forward their vaccines for approval in Europe or USA. Maybe they don’t feel they have the production capacity or maybe they don’t feel their results will satisfy the EMA or maybe it’s another reason.
    People can talk all they like about those vaccines but it doesn’t look likely they will be rolled out to EU.

    Brazil have said Chinas vaccine is safe ;)


  • #1928
    manniot2
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 713 ✭✭✭manniot2


    eagle eye wrote: »
    Do you want the hospitals to get overrun?
    If you want to compare our lockdown the other countries then go find one with a health service as bad as ours and see how that works out for you.

    You missed my point, which was about BALANCE. We are now engaged in destroying society and our economy leading to misery and deprivation. The aim of this is to get to 100 cases a day which would basically mean nobody is in hospital with COVID (as per the later summer months). There is therefore no balance in this logic, especially when you consider that (as seen in the Southern Hemisphere) there is likely to be little or no flu around this year.


  • #1929
    Boggles
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 42,595 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Best test of this will be if positive rates rise further.

    Why?

    We are doing a pretty standard amount of testing per week, 100k roughly.

    The bulk of that is serial testing. The positivity rate from GP referrals is far more than the 7 odd percent. The bulk of instances of the disease is now in the community.

    If contacts of confirmed cases are not being tracked you don't get more confirmed cases you get less and so on.

    The headline figures on testing are no longer an accurate representation of the level of disease out there.

    When we were adequately testing and tracing we were finding 7/8 cases out of 10.

    Wouldn't be a stretch to say that has slipped significantly, we are are probably missing a case for every case we pick up.

    Given the situation on tracing is deteriorating further that number is not going to improve for the forseeable.


  • #1930
    cnocbui
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,163 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Softshoulder wrote: »
    Brazil have said Chinas vaccine is safe ;)

    There is a reason Chinese consumers get into fights while emptying baby formula and vitamin supplements from Australian supermarket shelves, the minute they are re-stocked.


  • #1931
    marno21
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 14,749 Mod ✭✭✭✭marno21


    Deleted User wrote: »
    I think that this is a realistic expectation setting piece on how a vaccine would work and how it would not be a magic wand to bring us back to the old normal

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/21/covid-vaccine-immunisation-protection
    Perhaps it might be time for this gentleman to take a walk down to the Treasury and take a look at the planned national accounts for 2020 & 2021.

    Ireland is borrowing in excess of €20bn in 2021. 2021 will be the last year of such an endeavour. It cannot continue. Should there be no vaccine for us, we will have to start massive cutbacks including to the advanced healthcare that's keeping much of the population who are vulnerable to Covid-19 alive. There is a very good reason why mortality rates in slums in Asia and in large areas of Africa are so low; there is no quality healthcare to treat their primary underlying conditions and they have low life expectancy. The difference between Ireland and those countries is first world healthcare funded by a strong, advanced economy.

    If there is no vaccine in 2021, or the usual academic waffle in that article comes to pass, we will have 2 options:

    1. Continue locking ourselves in our houses and borrowing into economic collapse in which healthcare provision goes out the window anyway
    2. Find another route out of this mess, whatever you're having yourself that doesn't involve economic shutdowns.


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  • #1932
    niallo27
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,138 ✭✭✭✭niallo27


    eagle eye wrote: »
    Do you want the hospitals to get overrun?
    If you want to compare our lockdown the other countries then go find one with a health service as bad as ours and see how that works out for you.

    OK Sweden.


  • #1933
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,802 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    Boggles wrote: »
    Why?

    We are doing a pretty standard amount of testing per week, 100k roughly.

    The bulk of that is serial testing. The positivity rate from GP referrals is far more than the 7 odd percent. The bulk of instances of the disease is now in the community.

    If contacts of confirmed cases are not being tracked you don't get more confirmed cases you get less and so on.

    The headline figures on testing are no longer an accurate representation of the level of disease out there.

    When we were adequately testing and tracing we were finding 7/8 cases out of 10.

    Wouldn't be a stretch to say that has slipped significantly, we are are probably missing a case for every case we pick up.

    Given the situation on tracing is deteriorating further that number is not going to improve for the forseeable.
    Of 100k tests a week less than 20% is serial testing. 65% is community swabs and the rest is hospitals.

    https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/covid-19-testing-contact-tracing-update-15-october-2020.pdf


  • #1934
    tayto lover
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 55,079 ✭✭✭✭tayto lover


    Still no word on whether golf clubs will be forced to close or not.
    GUI still unsure by all accounts.


  • #1935
    Boggles
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 42,595 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    Polar101 wrote: »
    While it's a shambles, I think that's overplaying the situation a bit. They haven't stopped to do contact tracing, they are still doing as much as they can - even if it means not everyone will be traced. Some of the ones who aren't contacted will be able to inform their contacts. Non-traced contacts who are positive will still be contacting their GPs if they display symptoms. And testing capacity seems to have increased from the previous 100k a week to something like 120k a week.

    So a lot of the cases are still being detected.

    Contact tracing collapsed 3 weeks ago.

    The term used by public health was "threw in the towel". This didn't happen yesterday.

    The vast majority of testing are serial and have nothing to do with tracing.

    In terms of wide spread community transmission we are half blind.


  • #1936
    Boggles
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 42,595 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    Of 100k tests a week less than 20% is serial testing. 65% is community swabs and the rest is hospitals.

    https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/covid-19-testing-contact-tracing-update-15-october-2020.pdf

    Community swabs means care homes, residential, care, etc. 35,000 odd.

    The number you need is GP referrals and tracing referrals.


  • #1937
    polesheep
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,950 ✭✭✭polesheep


    Sheepdish1 wrote: »
    I looked up contact tracing jobs and the vacancies I saw advertised seemed to be only recruiting people from a public health background or healthcare. This surprised me as I also thought it could be the type of job possible to do it from home after initial training. Maybe there is a need for people to have this level of knowledge about healthcare but I wouldn’t have thought so until last night. I thought it would be more an administrative job and data recording.

    It smacks of the same thinking as when we had a list of 'special' people who could sign your passport form. Can't be letting the great unwashed near it.


  • #1938
    wadacrack
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,172 ✭✭✭wadacrack


    pauldry wrote: »
    Still hopeful that by mid to late November these 1,000 cases a day will be behind us. I dont think the virus cares much about mini lockdowns but we can help flatten the curve with our actions.

    Some people think we will have thousands of cases a day by December. I cant see it myself so hope they are wrong and not me.

    I think this lockdown will not be very effective. Not much will change from level 3 which appears to have done very little. A few obstacles compared to the first lockdown.

    1. Schools open and some Colleges/courses 1 to 2 days a week on campus. Student accomodation. House parties.

    2.International travel from countries with posivity rates at 20%.

    3. Lack of public buy in


  • #1939
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 10,049 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Boggles wrote: »
    Why?

    We are doing a pretty standard amount of testing per week, 100k roughly.

    The bulk of that is serial testing. The positivity rate from GP referrals is far more than the 7 odd percent. The bulk of instances of the disease is now in the community.

    If contacts of confirmed cases are not being tracked you don't get more confirmed cases you get less and so on.

    The headline figures on testing are no longer an accurate representation of the level of disease out there.

    When we were adequately testing and tracing we were finding 7/8 cases out of 10.

    Wouldn't be a stretch to say that has slipped significantly, we are are probably missing a case for every case we pick up.

    Given the situation on tracing is deteriorating further that number is not going to improve for the forseeable.

    If contacts of confirmed cases aren't being referred, only GP referrals of symptomatic cases will be tested, and as you say, these are far more likely to be positive, therefore the % of positive tests will go up.

    Now the hope is that what essentially has been hit is a circuit breaker on the contract tracing system to allow a reset by clearing a cohort of cases, and allowing a somewhat capable system from now on. This should be aided by that fact that from tomorrow, most peoples contacts will be within their own home, freeing up resources to deal with the lower number of complex cases as a result of level 5


  • #1940
    gibgodsman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 584 ✭✭✭gibgodsman


    Honestly it is becoming laughable how many businesses are using this click and collect excuse to stay open but have no way to implement it. Just seen a local jewelers use it to say they are open, they don't even have a website


  • #1941
    polesheep
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,950 ✭✭✭polesheep


    gibgodsman wrote: »
    Honestly it is becoming laughable how many businesses are using this click and collect excuse to stay open but have no way to implement it. Just seen a local jewelers use it to say they are open, they don't even have a website

    Did you really expect the same buy-in this time around?


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  • #1942
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,802 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    Boggles wrote: »
    Community swabs means care homes, residential, care, etc. 35,000 odd.

    The number you need is GP referrals and tracing referrals.
    No it doesn't.
    18,107 taken as part of serial testing of staff in meat and food plants, residential care facilities and residents and staff in direct provision centres.


  • #1943
    speckle
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,251 ✭✭✭speckle


    ok contact tracing having a break down is definetely not good,but one potential positive long term is de stigmatising having covid, a bit like cancer or TB used to be.

    So for you who have to now do your own contact tracing...

    Chin up you have the strenght and can do this.
    If unwell ask for help.
    Do not feel embrassed,this is an highly transmissiable virus.
    And for you who will be on the receiving end of a phone call ,please dont shame the person, just act on the advice promptly.


  • #1944
    gipi
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,435 ✭✭✭gipi


    tayto lover wrote: »
    Still no word on whether golf clubs will be forced to close or not.
    GUI still unsure by all accounts.

    If members live over 5km from the club, then it's immaterial whether they open or not, since they couldn't travel? Wasn't that the case last time round?


  • #1945
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 10,049 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Boggles wrote: »
    Community swabs means care homes, residential, care, etc. 35,000 odd.

    The number you need is GP referrals and tracing referrals.

    530070.JPG


  • #1946
    gibgodsman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 584 ✭✭✭gibgodsman


    polesheep wrote: »
    Did you really expect the same buy-in this time around?

    It will be the same idiots complaining when the lockdown is extended by 2-4 weeks because they couldn't be bothered to follow the rules


  • #1947
    Plumbthedepths
    Closed Accounts Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭Plumbthedepths


    Softshoulder wrote: »
    Brazil have said Chinas vaccine is safe ;)

    That's not quite true. The Brazilian president wants nothing to do with Chinese vaccine where as the mayor of Sao Paulo signed a deal with the Chinese company making a vaccine.


  • #1948
    polesheep
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,950 ✭✭✭polesheep


    gibgodsman wrote: »
    It will be the same idiots complaining when the lockdown is extended by 2-4 weeks because they couldn't be bothered to follow the rules

    But did you really expect people would buy-in to the same degree? Calling people idiots doesn't change facts. The authorities themselves stated that they would only get one good shot at a lockdown. Now they are back for a second shot they can hardly expect it to be as successful as the first one.


  • #1949
    SortingYouOut
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,405 ✭✭✭SortingYouOut


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    I think that this is a realistic expectation setting piece on how a vaccine would work and how it would not be a magic wand to bring us back to the old normal

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/21/covid-vaccine-immunisation-protection

    A dose of realism that some don't want to hear. Many think a vaccine is going to bring about an abrupt end to this pandemic. We'll be dancing around Covid-19 well into 2022 and potentially for the rest of our lives.

    Beverly Hills, California



  • #1950
    Boggles
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 42,595 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    Deleted User wrote: »
    This should be aided by that fact that from tomorrow, most peoples contacts will be within their own home

    I don't think there will be the significant drop off in contacts from today compared to tomorrow that some people think there will be.

    There is much open compared to last "lockdown" and far less appetite for compliance.

    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    No it doesn't.

    I stand corrected, they use to lump them in with community referalls.


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  • #1951
    Golfman64
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 314 ✭✭Golfman64


    SortingYouOut wrote: »
    A dose of realism that some don't want to hear. Many think a vaccine is going to bring about an abrupt end to this pandemic. We'll be dancing around Covid-19 well into 2022 and potentially for the rest of our lives.

    The last 5 significant pandemics lasted between 1 and 2 years. I think it's reasonable to estimate, given the advances in medicine, technology and communication that we may end this sooner.


This discussion has been closed.
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