Covid 19 Part XXVI- 50,993 ROI (1,852 deaths) 28,040 NI (621 deaths) (19/10) Read OP

WoollyRedHat · 17-10-2020 07:40PM

Dr Maria Casey on Twitter:

'At the level of 2000 a day there will not be capacity to manage outbreaks.

At current levels, our local knowledge of what's happening is disappearing and it's getting impossible to connect cases. This means we can't implement targetted control measures.

When that happens we move from situation specific controls to blunt population tools, like lockdowns.

We badly need population buy in to get the numbers down.

Testing and tracing is not enough to get this under control.' This is justification for moving up a level, to regain control. Climbing cases makes it impossible for more targeted controls to be applied.

Also, apparently NPHET recommended sick pay to government and then flagged the failure to act on that recommendation subsequently to them! The government are in charge, the buck stops with them, this blaming NPHET for everything going wrong is growing old fast.

stephenjmcd · 17-10-2020 07:41PM

niamh247 wrote: »

How dare you talk about schools ... Did you forget that you need to leave all your reasoning and common sense aside when talking about schools?

My apologies, we have the best covid safe schools in Europe. Nothing to see here, move along.

Gael23 · 17-10-2020 07:43PM

Any leaks from the meeting today?

frank8211 · 17-10-2020 07:43PM

manniot2 wrote: »

They have a bigger population than us. Will be some achievement if they pull it off.

This is an important recent measure there..... Secondary schools will switch to distance teaching as of Monday, October 12, until further notice. Kindergartens and primary schools will continue to meet in person as usual. At eight-year grammar schools, in-person teaching continues for grades one through four.
All pupils at primary schools (including first-fourth grade) will be required to wear masks during classes. The only exception will be given to deaf pupils and pupils with autism or special needs.
Masks will not be required in kindergartens, but children are recommended to wear them. CAlso, children younger than three years of age will not be required to wear masks.
All school activities, like school trips and ski courses, as well as various extracurricular activities, will be cancelled.
Čítajte viac: https://spectator.sme.sk/c/22507697/masks-outdoors-no-mass-events-special-hours-for-seniors-slovakia-reintroduces-strict-measures.html

WoollyRedHat · 17-10-2020 07:49PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Even if its level 4, its essentially the same as 5. There are very few differences.

Why close retail? That just doesn't appear to be an issue and it's really all you hit in level 4 while adding hundreds of thousands onto social welfare. Closing retail isn't going to make much difference at all.

Elephant in the room is the schools, you can do what you want but in my opinion nothing works while they're open.

Even if students attending school by and large have a smaller infection range than those out of school, the sheer numbers of students in a class around the country without adequate measures still means they represent a transmission risk. When rates are as high as they are now, schools being kept open is a risk to public health and CDC have said as much. That's the Centre for Disease Control for those wondering.

Czech Republic have begun plans to move to distance learning as cases rise there.

Mullaghteelin · 17-10-2020 07:51PM

Ohmeha wrote: »

Exactly what I seen with my eyes in Dublin City Centre this morning in the shops and shopping centres like Jervis and Ilac, couldn't wait to get out. Too much of the population and retailers still do not get it or do not give a fck

Also too many still on the DART today heading out to Howth for a day out with no masks on or wearing them below the nose or chin

The same people spreading this virus around now will continue to spread it in December, next February, next April, next June... I give up.

You can't complain if you had the bright idea of going out shopping the same time everyone else goes out. Crowds of people moaning about the crowds that they are all guilty of being part of. If you want a quiet shopping experience go to a less popular place at an off peak time. Did you really need to go the city centre on a Saturday morning?
Was there no where closer with a Tesco, Dunnes, Lidl or whatever?
Don't condemn others for doing exactly what you've done.

mr_edge_to_you · 17-10-2020 07:51PM

marno21 wrote: »

I am at a loss as to what can be achieved by Level 5 that can’t be achieved with Level 3 with enforcement?

The 5km rule, shuttering of businesses etc are not going to reduce the R number. Actual enforcement of Level 3 measures would be more beneficial than putting hundreds of thousands on the PUP.

The problem is we didn't enforce level 2 when we should have, we let it fester and result in level 3. Then we implemented level 3, we made a balls of that. The virus is now spreading like wildfire in the community. I think we need level 5 to clean the slate and then revisit a strictly enforced level 3.

I am currently unemployed as a result of Covid19. My wife is a nurse in a major hospital which brings a whole other level of stress. My father in law who lives next door has COPD. Our house has been, and continues, to be seriously impacted by the virus.

If the government don't want level 4/5 or whatever that's fine. Just tell me what your plan is.......

Hellrazer · 17-10-2020 07:54PM

niamh247 wrote: »

How dare you talk about schools ... Did you forget that you need to leave all your reasoning and common sense aside when talking about schools?

The governments have put all their eggs in one basket with regards to the schools.
They are determined to keep them open at all costs. Their tunnel vision in this regard has us where we are today. Maybe if they shut the schools for 4 weeks and left us all at level 2 or 3 they would see the truth about having this many people congregating every day.

In March children were super spreaders - now they don't pass it on at all.

Make up your minds - which is it?

Pinch Flat · 17-10-2020 07:55PM

I'm guessing level 4 for the whole country. We can't move to level 5. it'll be a disaster.

eagle eye · 17-10-2020 07:56PM

ACitizenErased wrote:

This is my biggest issue to be honest. NPHET have no plan.

NPHET react to data. They'll give advice two weeks in advance as regards removing restrictions. How can they possibly give advice on removing lockdown measures before we see how it's working?

DebDynamite · 17-10-2020 07:57PM

cannotlogin wrote: »

One of the most disappointing things about this is the realisation that we will never have a functioning health service in Ireland.

Never before had there been more need, focus, and money available to get it together and if we didn't do it now, we never will.

We had a 6 month window of opportunity to get it together and the government/NPHET squandered it.

So true. It’s extremely frustrating. We have among highest paid hospital consultants in the world (who were due to get a huge payrise this year before the **** hit the fan), and we are amongst the spenders on health per person in Europe, but yet we’re left with this situation. We’d still be in the situation of having bed shortages and people waiting on trollies this winter even if COVID didn’t exist.

Let’s not be under any illusions here - the reason for the proposed lockdown is not to stop people dying from COVID, it’s to stop our pathetically under equipped hospitals becoming overwhelmed. If the hospitals last had greater capacity, there wouldn’t be the calls to lockdown as there are now.

Sierra Oscar · 17-10-2020 07:57PM

is_that_so wrote: »

This is something they really have to get past, either to manage the message better, this could be 8 weeks but we hope 4 weeks will be enough or to just stop using arbitrary week numbers - so a Level 5 is just that and we have no end date to it.

It’s likely that we will have periods of rolling lockdowns until there is a vaccine. It’s terrible but a real possibility nonetheless.

There’s little else that can be done considering ‘zero Covid’ seems an impossibility to achieve here.

People will have to make peace with this possibility. We’re in this for the long haul unfortunately.

Goldrickssan · 17-10-2020 07:58PM

What time does Leo generally start leaking stuff?

niamh247 · 17-10-2020 07:59PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

My apologies, we have the best covid safe schools in Europe. Nothing to see here, move along.

Yep, also we have very safe sand in here, to stick our heads in.. dig along...

The Wordress · 17-10-2020 08:02PM

Donegal is on Level 4, it might as well be Level 5 because the place is dead.

We went to a cafe earlier and the owner said she was closing up for this year as she just wasn't making the revenue she usually would, she also couldn't predict what she needed to order food wise and she didn't want to be left with excess stock. She also didn't want to run the risk of catching the virus herself and passing it on to someone else.

I feel for people in business, I really do.

It was sad to go into shops on Thursday and see their Christmas stock on the shelves, knowing the next day their business would be closed

We need to shop local as best we can.

I Am The Law · 17-10-2020 08:04PM

Goldrickssan wrote: »

What time does Leo generally start leaking stuff?

Yuk, far too much info.

iamwhoiam · 17-10-2020 08:13PM

Strictly is back ! God it looks so normal like in olden days . Oh if only

niallo27 · 17-10-2020 08:15PM

eagle eye wrote: »

NPHET react to data. They'll give advice two weeks in advance as regards removing restrictions. How can they possibly give advice on removing lockdown measures before we see how it's working?

How about a plan if numbers are not down and another plan if numbers are down. You know some kind of forward thinking so we might have an actual clue what the **** is going on.

WoollyRedHat · 17-10-2020 08:19PM

Excellent article that was retweeted last week by Cillian DeGascun, touches upon superspreading as defining feature of the virus, with overdispersion (k) as the key metric and backward tracing necessary for effectively controlling pandemic.

There are COVID-19 incidents in which a single person likely infected 80 percent or more of the people in the room in just a few hours. But, at other times, COVID-19 can be surprisingly much less contagious. Overdispersion and super-spreading of this virus are found in research across the globe. A growing number of studies estimate that a majority of infected people may not infect a single other person. A recent paper found that in Hong Kong, which had extensive testing and contact tracing, about 19 percent of cases were responsible for 80 percent of transmission, while 69 percent of cases did not infect another person. This finding is not rare: Multiple studies from the beginning have suggested that as few as 10 to 20 percent of infected people may be responsible for as much as 80 to 90 percent of transmission, and that many people barely transmit it.
This highly skewed, imbalanced distribution means that an early run of bad luck with a few super-spreading events, or clusters, can produce dramatically different outcomes even for otherwise similar countries

Hitoshi O****ani, a member of the National COVID-19 Cluster Taskforce at Japan’s Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare and a professor at Tohoku University who told me that Japan focused on the overdispersion impact from early on, likens his country’s approach to looking at a forest and trying to find the clusters, not the trees. Meanwhile, he believes, the Western world was getting distracted by the trees, and got lost among them. To fight a super-spreading disease effectively, policy makers need to figure out why super-spreading happens, and they need to understand how it affects everything, including our contact-tracing methods and our testing regimes.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/

First part of successful contact tracing is 'Investigate'.

IrishStuff09 · 17-10-2020 08:20PM

Mother has just tested positive now. Leads me to believe that I have actually been re-infected. Bit of a balls.

owlbethere · 17-10-2020 08:23PM

The scenes from the news with people filling up shopping streets and shopping scenes probably people shopping for Christmas before a level 5 looked like a headache. Also a little bit pointless and defeats the public health guidelines and fairly dangerous and risky for infections. The news replaying the scenes is just going to get more people panicking and rushing into the cities to do more of the same and tomorrow will be much and the same no doubt with people panicking.

People need to relax and take it to fcuk easy. Keep Christmas low key and there's also online shopping. The government will want to cop on and come out fairly lively and tell the public what their decision is of either staying St level 3 or going up. Instil some confidence and calmness in the people who are beginning to panic about Christmas.

Away With The Fairies · 17-10-2020 08:24PM

IrishStuff09 wrote: »

Mother has just tested positive now. Leads me to believe that I have actually been re-infected. Bit of a balls.

Did you have covid earlier in the year?

froog · 17-10-2020 08:25PM

marno21 wrote: »

I am at a loss as to what can be achieved by Level 5 that can’t be achieved with Level 3 with enforcement?

The 5km rule, shuttering of businesses etc are not going to reduce the R number. Actual enforcement of Level 3 measures would be more beneficial than putting hundreds of thousands on the PUP.

agree. surely some people in government must realize this.

IrishStuff09 · 17-10-2020 08:25PM

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

Did have covid earlier in the year?

I did yes, she didn't! Very strange altogether, but sure look we'll just have to wait it out.

niallo27 · 17-10-2020 08:25PM

IrishStuff09 wrote: »

Mother has just tested positive now. Leads me to believe that I have actually been re-infected. Bit of a balls.

Ring rte quick, they will love that. You will be famous.

OscarMIlde · 17-10-2020 08:28PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Rapid testing would allow our sporting organisations to work with no setbacks. It would allow teachers, healthcare workers, Gardai etc to be tested at very short notice with fast results. If presumed positive, test with PCR.
Every other country is doing it.

It's very inaccurate. It would allow people who are positive to think they are negative and would behave accordingly. I also don't think they would be completed that quickly if that level of testing was taking place.

Plumbthedepths · 17-10-2020 08:29PM

niallo27 wrote: »

Ring rte quick, they will love that. You will be famous.

No point unless they have serious after effects, you know like appendages falling off or forgetting how to play the piano.

Queried · 17-10-2020 08:29PM

IrishStuff09 wrote: »

Mother has just tested positive now. Leads me to believe that I have actually been re-infected. Bit of a balls.

Hope your mam makes a quick recovery! Have you tested positive twice? Hope you are okay too if so!

Funsterdelux · 17-10-2020 08:30PM

owlbethere wrote: »

The scenes from the news with people filling up shopping streets and shopping scenes probably people shopping for Christmas before a level 5 looked like a headache. Also a little bit pointless and defeats the public health guidelines and fairly dangerous and risky for infections. The news replaying the scenes is just going to get more people panicking and rushing into the cities to do more of the same and tomorrow will be much and the same no doubt with people panicking.

People need to relax and take it to fcuk easy. Keep Christmas low key and there's also online shopping. The government will want to cop on and come out fairly lively and tell the public what their decision is of either staying St level 3 or going up. Instil some confidence and calmness in the people who are beginning to panic about Christmas.

March comes but twice a year

AlphaDelta1 · 17-10-2020 08:30PM

Posters obsession with RTÉ is fairly laughable tbh.

Covid 19 Part XXVI- 50,993 ROI (1,852 deaths) 28,040 NI (621 deaths) (19/10) Read OP

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