Relaxation of Restrictions, Part VI - Read OP for Mod Warnings

Captain_Crash · 17-10-2020 03:33PM

charlie14 wrote: »

As I said already ratios are the relationship between verifiable numbers

One of which is verifiably incorrect!

walus · 17-10-2020 03:34PM

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

I’ve been trying to do this for months. I’m trying to find out what people think is going to reinstate social normality.

From what I can gather it won’t be happening for a couple of generations unless people’s attitudes change immensely

That is exactly what I’m trying to get a sense of here. Experts this, experts that. So far most of them were wrong. This whole thing is just to complex for them to comprehend, therefore their narrow field expertise is useless. This is we’re the wisdom of the crowd science comes in handy.

Vestiapx · 17-10-2020 03:37PM

walus wrote: »

If you compare the excess deaths figures for the same period with previous couple of years you will find out that the actual number will be bellow 1000. It is the death from and death with covid semantics. Which will make it on par with number of deaths from flu in the period mentioned.

Excess deaths? So you subtract the all causes number for 2019 from 2020 and the excess is covid ?

That seems wrong as are things like traffic mortality down ?

walus · 17-10-2020 03:38PM

charlie14 wrote: »

A bit childish is it not when those here who are looking for an exact date from others on vaccines, have not put forward a single credible alternative to vaccines for a time anywhere in the future.

Not an exact date but your personal expected date. Your estimation, your best guess etc. If you don’t see the difference, I will not be able to help you.

charlie14 · 17-10-2020 03:38PM

3xh wrote: »

I’m content that the adult posters here will see where you’re wrong in your Covid understanding and where I’m correctly coming from.

Thanks.

So like your credible alternative it`s a mystery that you will revel sometime in the unknown future.

Very adult.

MadYaker · 17-10-2020 03:39PM

walus wrote: »

That is exactly what I’m trying to get a sense of here. Experts this, experts that. So far most of them were wrong. This whole thing is just to complex for them to comprehend, therefore their narrow field expertise is useless. This is we’re the wisdom of the crowd science comes in handy.

Lets unpack this a bit. So the people who have spent their whole lives studying this sort of stuff and working in the field should be ignored, this problem is too complex for them, lets listen to the wisdom of the crowd? Whatever that is????

If you broke your leg would you go to a hospital?

bucketybuck · 17-10-2020 03:41PM

Vestiapx wrote: »

Excess deaths? So you subtract the all causes number for 2019 from 2020 and the excess is covid ?

That seems wrong as are things like traffic mortality down ?

Or as the joke goes, nobody has died from old age in Ireland since March...

walus · 17-10-2020 03:42PM

Vestiapx wrote: »

Excess deaths? So you subtract the all causes number for 2019 from 2020 and the excess is covid ?

That seems wrong as are things like traffic mortality down ?

In principle it is correct. Inaccurate if you don’t take provisions for traffic mortality, you could assume a flat monthly rate for that if needs to be. I would argue however that it is far more accurate method than putting all the deaths from, with, related to COVID in one vpbasket as it has been done thus far.

For example influenza outbreak can add 1-1.5 month of excess deaths. That is obviously country, demographic etc. dependent.

Vestiapx · 17-10-2020 03:42PM

To answer the question floating around I think the vulnerable should self isolate and that we should have the original level 2 but enforced with financial benefits to employers who instate work from home and real punishments for house parties. I think that the vaccine will be out in about a year from now and that by this time two years we can go back to normal .

I'm surprised at the schools thing and I wonder why the kids are being let use single layer cloth where they should be using propper masks

Vestiapx · 17-10-2020 03:44PM

bucketybuck wrote: »

Or as the joke goes, nobody has died from old age in Ireland since March...

I have heard various statements on this, is it true?

walus · 17-10-2020 03:46PM

MadYaker wrote: »

Lets unpack this a bit. So the people who have spent their whole lives studying this sort of stuff and working in the field should be ignored, this problem is too complex for them, lets listen to the wisdom of the crowd? Whatever that is????

If you broke your leg would you go to a hospital?

No, that is not what I said. A broken leg is a simple problem and one that has happened million times before. Easy to build up an expertise on past cases. Experts with narrow expertise have been proven to be crap at dealing with complex problems for which they don’t have enough experience with. Say, when was the last time Fat Tony and McDonkey had to deal with a pandemic? Or when was the last time you have heard an economist whose predictions have been proven correct 3 years later? Too complex, too volatile, too unknown.

Vestiapx · 17-10-2020 03:46PM

walus wrote: »

In principle it is correct. Inaccurate if you don’t take provisions for traffic mortality, you could assume a flat monthly rate for that if needs to be. I would argue however that it is far more accurate method than putting all the deaths from, with, related to COVID in one vpbasket as it has been done thus far.

For example influenza outbreak can add 1-1.5 month of excess deaths. That is obviously country, demographic etc. dependent.

Ok so can we get the all deaths figures for April -september 17 18 19 and subtract traffic and suicide and and then average them and put them against 20 for the same
That seems to be the figure I'd like to see

charlie14 · 17-10-2020 03:46PM

walus wrote: »

Not an exact date but your personal expected date. Your estimation, your best guess etc. If you don’t see the difference, I will not be able to help you.

I have answered this already. I expect at least one vaccine will be licensed early 2021. Perhaps even sooner.
After that when it is my turn I will avail of it.

Now I have humored you, perhaps you would be good enough to do the same. What is your viable alternative to vaccines and how and when will this occur. I wont hold you to a day or month.
A year will suffice.

charlie14 · 17-10-2020 03:50PM

Captain_Crash wrote: »

One of which is verifiably incorrect!

Which one is that ?
Verifiable is simply that, verifiable.
Estimates are guesswork.

Edit : With your mention of WHO are you not overlooking a glaring problem with the flu and Covid-19 argument.
The Who estimates yearly flu deaths as between 250,000 and 500,000. In 8 months we have over 1.1 Million verified deaths due to Covid-19.

17-10-2020 03:56PM

bucketybuck wrote: »

"We need to do X until we get a vaccine and then we will be able to do Y"
"Ok, when will we be getting this vaccine?"
"I'm not answering that".

I would say within the first 6 months of next 2021 would be a reasonable estimate.

walus · 17-10-2020 03:57PM

charlie14 wrote: »

I have answered this already. I expect at least one vaccine will be licensed early 2021. Perhaps even sooner.
After that when it is my turn I will avail of it.

Now I have humored you, perhaps you would be good enough to do the same. What is your viable alternative to vaccines and how and when will this occur. I wont hold you to a day or month.
A year will suffice.

I would say the vaccine would be out next year. Summer time probably. Available to general public 12 months later. That would be if everything goes well, which it won’t. That is my scientific guess. Personal expectation - don’t care, will not take it anyway.

MadYaker · 17-10-2020 04:00PM

walus wrote: »

No, that is not what I said. A broken leg is a simple problem and one that has happened million times before. Easy to build up an expertise on past cases. Experts with narrow expertise have been proven to be crap at dealing with complex problems for which they don’t have enough experience with. Say, when was the last time Fat Tony and McDonkey had to deal with a pandemic? Or when was the last time you have heard an economist whose predictions have been proven correct 3 years later? Too complex, too volatile, too unknown.

You have absolutely no idea what sort of situation we'd be in if we didn't have scientists and doctors guiding the response. Do you have any understanding of what its like to study science? Direct experience is not the only way we can learn about things believe it or not. The fact that you feel the need to call them childish names tells me all I need to know about your level of comprehension here.

Do you have an alternative plan as to how we should respond to this problem if we aren't going to base our response and facts and evidence?

FintanMcluskey · 17-10-2020 04:05PM

MadYaker wrote: »

You have absolutely no idea what sort of situation we'd be in if we didn't have scientists and doctors guiding the response.

Just like Sweden I think.

Slightly better maybe, Ireland has a very young population, a natural immunity

Micky 32 · 17-10-2020 04:08PM

walus wrote: »

I would say the vaccine would be out next year. Summer time probably. Available to general public 12 months later. That would be if everything goes well, which it won’t. That is my scientific guess. Personal expectation - don’t care, will not take it anyway.

Are you hoping the vaccine won’t work,? I’m curious about your picture of the future. Do you see Tony going to the government every few weeks recommending level 5 for the next 100 years and you’re ok with that?

Personally i think like all pandemics throughout history after 2/3 years it will weaken and fade out anyway.

charlie14 · 17-10-2020 04:13PM

walus wrote: »

I would say the vaccine would be out next year. Summer time probably. Available to general public 12 months later. That would be if everything goes well, which it won’t. That is my scientific guess. Personal expectation - don’t care, will not take it anyway.

I really wasn`t that interested in when you expected vaccines to be available or whether you will avail of it or not.

What I was interested in is after me humoring you, that you would do the same as to my question of what was your credible alternative to a solution without a vaccine, and when could we expect this to occur.

I do not mean to labor that point, I have asked it often enough here of late without any viable credible answer, so if you just do not have an answer, then fair enough.

charlie14 · 17-10-2020 04:16PM

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Just like Sweden I think.

Slightly better maybe, Ireland has a very young population, a natural immunity

Yeah, just like Sweden we would have herd immunity in one or two months.
How is that working out in Sweden?

MadYaker · 17-10-2020 04:30PM

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Just like Sweden I think.

Slightly better maybe, Ireland has a very young population, a natural immunity

Their response is also guided by doctors and scientists

walus · 17-10-2020 04:46PM

MadYaker wrote: »

You have absolutely no idea what sort of situation we'd be in if we didn't have scientists and doctors guiding the response. Do you have any understanding of what its like to study science? Direct experience is not the only way we can learn about things believe it or not. The fact that you feel the need to call them childish names tells me all I need to know about your level of comprehension here.

Do you have an alternative plan as to how we should respond to this problem if we aren't going to base our response and facts and evidence?

What I’m trying to say had nphet had previous experience they would have been doing a better job now. Do you agree? They are doing the best they can. Having said that the group think and tunnel vision holds them back and the Bill Gates effect that Tony H has in nphet should have no place in there either. It pure and simple dangerous. Experts or not unexpected and previously unknown phenomena are difficult to deal with the first few times. Again, economists or analysts always get it wrong.

As fir the science and education issue. I think I saw your cv a couple of pages back. First degree drunk and stoned, 2.1, right? I can assure you my collection of degrees is more impressive than yours. And all were maxed out with much different attitude to yours. More importantly, Personally I don’t see a connection between intelligence and thinking for yourself, and education. My own father is only 2 points off my own IQ and he has no degrees. I will not tell you which way though.
Just for the record, I don’t find this relevant to having a thoughtful and insightful conversation here.

walus · 17-10-2020 04:53PM

Vestiapx wrote: »

Ok so can we get the all deaths figures for April -september 17 18 19 and subtract traffic and suicide and and then average them and put them against 20 for the same
That seems to be the figure I'd like to see

That is pretty much the method. It will be inaccurate, but I’d argue that less so than the current COVID deaths figures.

walus · 17-10-2020 04:55PM

Micky 32 wrote: »

Are you hoping the vaccine won’t work,? I’m curious about your picture of the future. Do you see Tony going to the government every few weeks recommending level 5 for the next 100 years and you’re ok with that?

Personally i think like all pandemics throughout history after 2/3 years it will weaken and fade out anyway.

From experience I know that things that haven’t been done before I.e. genuinely new products take longer and often way longer 2-4x than most people anticipate.

Blut2 · 17-10-2020 04:56PM

charlie14 wrote: »

Yeah, just like Sweden we would have herd immunity in one or two months.
How is that working out in Sweden?

Seems to be working out pretty well for them.

Especially considering their society is currently open, and not facing into more lockdowns of indefinite duration like Ireland. Other health services like cancer screening haven't collapsed, and mental health isn't suffering.

moonage · 17-10-2020 04:56PM

MadYaker wrote: »

I wonder why the Swedish government are looking for 6 million doses of AstraZeneca’s vaccine so?

Regarding AstraZeneca’s vaccine, all volunteers haven't yet even been recruited onto the Phase 3 trial. The estimated completion date of the trial is October 2022.

So, this vaccine isn't due to be availabe until at least early 2023.

On top of that, if it ever comes to market there's a fair chance it won't be very effective or it would be too dangerous for the elderly, who are the ones that need it.

Clearly, depending on a vaccine to get us out of this mess is the wrong approach.

MadYaker · 17-10-2020 05:04PM

moonage wrote: »

Regarding AstraZeneca’s vaccine, all volunteers haven't yet even been recruited onto the Phase 3 trial. The estimated completion date of the trial is October 2022.

So, this vaccine isn't due to be availabe until at least early 2023.

On top of that, if it ever comes to market there's a fair chance it won't be very effective or it would be too dangerous for the elderly, who are the ones that need it.

Clearly, depending on a vaccine to get us out of this mess is the wrong approach.

Sweden's health minister says they are rolling out their vaccine program at the start of next year just like everyone else and over 70s are getting it first.

Your last 2 sentences are both completely wrong.

3xh · 17-10-2020 05:05PM

charlie14 wrote: »

So like your credible alternative it`s a mystery that you will revel sometime in the unknown future.

Very adult.

You’re the kind of adult that would think buying an item with an inflated price tag but then a subsequent large discount applied is better value than a similarly priced item without a discount because ‘it was on sale’

Other, more patient posters here, have kindly tried to teach you something about statistics and how you’re wrong in your understanding of the death rate. It’s your prerogative to ignore them and keep harping on about how others are wrong instead.

Maybe somebody who thinks this covid stuff is all so deadly and level 5 is needed will PM you and tell you to stop embarrassing yourself.

Anyway, our to-and-fro is over before The Mod here comes in to tell us to stop.

MadYaker · 17-10-2020 05:09PM

3xh wrote: »

You’re the kind of adult that would think buying an item with an inflated price tag but then a subsequent large discount applied is better value than a similarly priced item without a discount because ‘it was on sale’

Other, more patient posters here, have kindly tried to teach you something about statistics and how you’re wrong in your understanding of the death rate. It’s your prerogative to ignore them and keep harping on about how others are wrong instead.

Maybe somebody who thinks this covid stuff is all so deadly and level 5 is needed will PM you and tell you to stop embarrassing yourself.

Anyway, our to-and-fro is over before The Mod here comes in to tell us to stop.

He's being a bit obtuse alright but the point he is making is that we have no idea what the actual death rate is and we won't until this is over, all we have at the moment are guesses and estimates.

Relaxation of Restrictions, Part VI - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part VI - Read OP for Mod Warnings