Covid 19 Part XXVI- 50,993 ROI (1,852 deaths) 28,040 NI (621 deaths) (19/10) Read OP

Strumms · 16-10-2020 12:19PM

alentejo wrote: »

If we go to level 5 and the rest of Europe muddles on, this will cost Ireland a lot more money as we will need to borrow extra cash. It will also put a lot of Irish Companies at a completive disadvantage as they would be forced to close while Euro competitors would remain open. The impacts could be very long term.

The last time was easier as all of Europe was closed so no completive loss.

Truth but you can say to an Swedish car accessories manufacturer in Stockholm... “ listen covid is stable where you are, very stable, well done but it’s running amok in Ireland, let’s in the interest of fairness shut you down”

Covid is on the rise here because there are a significant number of people here who lack self discipline, who lack the ability or want to behave in a fashion that safeguards the health and wellbeing of themselves and their fellow citizens and businesses. Why should the Swedes be penalized for that ?

You can’t turn around to the Swedes “ here, we fuçked up, in the interests of fairness we need to fûck YOU up !!!”

Ireland is putting itself at a disadvantage. Again, the virus doesn’t ring your doorbell and crawl down your airway when you answer. Transmission is from one contact to another, ‘contact’.

duffman13 · 16-10-2020 12:20PM

bennyl10 wrote: »

A balance that fills up our ICUS in October? Prior to the flu outbreak

That’s not feasible

Flu is another joke! A vaccine, which apparently ample amounts whre secured, is in extremely low supply! HSE are the last public service organisation I want leading the way. Revenue would probably manage it better despite the lack of relevant knowledge

caveat emptor · 16-10-2020 12:20PM

Here's the chart with the exponential. Doubling time is 12 days.
6% increase each day. Looks like a good fit. Restrictions are coming either way. Capacity not there.

Should put to bed the debate.

Widdensushi · 16-10-2020 12:20PM

Swab results were down yesterday, I presume they are back up with that announcement

Necro · 16-10-2020 12:21PM

Balagan1 wrote: »

Please explain it to me in simple terms. Who released info that NPHET recommended Level 5 for six weeks? I thought it was abundantly clear since the Level 5 leak recently that the only way we would know all or part of what NPHET had recommended to Gov when the Gov announced the parts of the recommendations that it was accepting and implementing.

Government have more leaks than a broken bucket, they will always 'leak' the info to gauge public opinion before Cabinet.

Politics 101.

16-10-2020 12:21PM

Proximity to Northern Ireland was always going to be one of our main problems. It wouldn't have mattered how low we managed to keep the rate of infection 'down south' so long as the North were following Borris's game plan, and the border between the north and the south remained open.

Also, failure to enforce a rule of 2 weeks mandatory self isolation on entering the country was a big mistake.

Finally, the rule that we are not allowed to visit each other's houses, but at the same time its ok to send our children to school where they can spend 5 - 6 hours in other children's company, pretty much defeats the purpose of restricting house visits.. or am I wrong?

ACitizenErased · 16-10-2020 12:22PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Open letter from Pfizer chairman, third week in November a big week for the vaccine with submission for emergency approval to follow soon after

https://www.pfizer.com/news/hot-topics/an_open_letter_from_pfizer_chairman_and_ceo_albert_bourla

Fantastic.

So let me be clear, assuming positive data, Pfizer will apply for Emergency Authorization Use in the U.S. soon after the safety milestone is achieved in the third week of November. All the data contained in our U.S. application would be reviewed not only by the FDA’s own scientists but also by an external panel of independent experts at a publicly held meeting convened by the agency.

bennyl10 · 16-10-2020 12:22PM

CountingCrows wrote: »

More people are dying from lockdown consequences than COVID

COVID isnt the issue

Covid causes people to go to hospital and ICU, which leads to people who would otherwise need that care being unable to get it, with what happens every winter

so, we can either, do a lockdown, reduce the numbers who need admission from Covid, and ensure capacity for other patients

Or

Keep as we are, have full ICU's, in more than we already have, and have countless numbers more die

Harry Palmr · 16-10-2020 12:22PM

duffman13 wrote: »

Flu is another joke! A vaccine, which apparently ample amounts whre secured, is in extremely low supply! HSE are the last public service organisation I want leading the way. Revenue would probably manage it better despite the lack of relevant knowledge

Flu vaccine availability is fine, there was a choke point a few weeks back but that's been got over.

Longing · 16-10-2020 12:23PM

People in here giving out about NPHET recommendations for the coming weeks is laughable. Tony and NPHET are trying to save your life simple has that. No wonder this country is going down to this virus when you have the likes and mind sided people who only think of number 1.

SeeMoreBut · 16-10-2020 12:23PM

Lets say we go level 5 for 6 weeks. Unless HSE build capacity then it is pointless as we go around and around and around every couple of months.

I find it crazy that 250-300 people going to hospital out of 5 million can bring our health service to it knees.

The standup hospitals should have remained open.

FF/FG/GP putting the blame on people when they've caused the lack of beds but it is great for them to make it all our fault

CIARAN_BOYLE · 16-10-2020 12:23PM

duffman13 wrote: »

Just actually looked into who is in NPHET, 32 members is a hefty group, id wonder how they vote and what's the ratio of the 32 making this recommendation.

There is also a subgroup responsible for getting acute hospitals prepared for increase in admissions, what the heck have they been doing that our capacity has barely increased.

I'm not anti NPHET whatsoever but would like a bit of clarity from them. It will be hard for the government to ignore a second recommendation from them at this point

Playing around with surge capacity plans since they can't get funding to increase capacity.

TonyMaloney · 16-10-2020 12:23PM

Widdensushi wrote: »

Swab results were down yesterday, I presume they are back up with that announcement

The number of tests done was down yesterday to 13,428.
The positivity rate was still high at 7.19%

It wasn't a good day, much in line with what you'd expect

mr_edge_to_you · 16-10-2020 12:25PM

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Fair point but it’s just if we lockdown for I think they said six weeks(that’s a long time in winter) what’s to say if we open up again before Christmas that by the start of the new year things will be going back the wrong way. People need to know that an action like this will have delaying effect. If nothing else for peoples mental health and well-being. People need something/sometime in the future to keep to.

If the existing restrictions were enforced I think we could live with the virus. There is, very unfortunately, going to have to be an acceptable level.

I had a phone consultation with my local GP this morning for a back injury because he's had to close his surgery as a result of an outbreak in the area, caused largely by local GAA supporters acting the b****x.

eggy81 · 16-10-2020 12:25PM

NPHET should be disbanded. All they ever suggest is tighter restrictions. Anyone can suggest that. Need a far more nuanced approach to this and some form of penalty for individuals breaking rules. Cant be locking down the country because certain people can't stick to a few rules for for a few months. It'll lead us to ruin.

Kermit.de.frog · 16-10-2020 12:25PM

Boggles · 16-10-2020 12:27PM

eggy81 wrote: »

NPHET should be disbanded

Here, here.

Replace them with the Vintners.

polesheep · 16-10-2020 12:27PM

The Nal wrote: »

It'll work in the short term, then they'll ease restrictions, cases will rise again, then they'll have to have another lockdown and it will just go on like that.

So we can either accept this or they need to come up with another plan. EG the 30% of people who are at risk need to be identified and take action. The damage this is currently doing to the country is going to last for a decade. Could take a lot longer than 10 years to recover if we have to do this for another year.

Usually the quoted risk group is 40% or even more, but it's far from correct as there is a wide range of risk among that group. It would be better to grade the level of risk and plan accordingly.

MerlinSouthDub · 16-10-2020 12:27PM

Widdensushi wrote: »

Swab results were down yesterday, I presume they are back up with that announcement

This is a NPHET letter from yesterday (they met yesterday afternoon) - they won't have known today's swabs at that stage.

Kermit.de.frog · 16-10-2020 12:27PM

SeeMoreBut wrote: »

Lets say we go level 5 for 6 weeks. Unless HSE build capacity then it is pointless as we go around and around and around every couple of months.

I find it crazy that 250-300 people going to hospital out of 5 million can bring our health service to it knees.

The standup hospitals should have remained open.

FF/FG/GP putting the blame on people when they've caused the lack of beds but it is great for them to make it all our fault

Every country in Europe is heading the same direction.

duffman13 · 16-10-2020 12:27PM

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Flu vaccine availability is fine, there was a choke point a few weeks back but that's been got over.

I'd love to know where your getting your info, even the IPU and GPs were complaining yesterday. There's also no private vaccination supply readily available in the country.

Edit

IPU statement
https://ipu.ie/home/article/uncertainty-over-flu-vaccine-deeply-concerning-pharmacists/

HSE confirming yesterday there is a delay:
https://www.thejournal.ie/flu-vaccine-delay-5234518-Oct2020/

Supply chain issue apparently

Royale with Cheese · 16-10-2020 12:27PM

eggy81 wrote: »

NPHET should be disbanded. All they ever suggest is tighter restrictions. Anyone can suggest that. Need a far more nuanced approach to this and some form of penalty for individuals breaking rules. Cant be locking down the country because certain people can't stick to a few rules for for a few months. It'll lead us to ruin.

I could knock some code in an hour that reads the daily numbers and then emails mícheal to tell him to go to level 5. Would probably save the taxpayer a fair bit.

440Hertz · 16-10-2020 12:27PM

Piehead wrote: »

6 week lockdown at level 5 may not be enough. Probably need 3+ months at level 5

That really makes no sense. If transmission has stopped, the virus can’t survive for more than a few weeks.

The big issue I would see is if we do enter another attempt to lock down, we need to start testing at airports and ports.

We cannot waste people’s time with another lockdown, clear the virus and then allow it straight back in again, which is exactly what we did this summer.

The airport testing & quarantine is extremely important and I don’t know why we have dragged our feet on it for all these months.

You don’t have to stop travel. You have to stop viruses with pre departure screening or if you arrive untested, quarantine & test.

Xenji · 16-10-2020 12:28PM

You would think that if the lockdown came into effect next Tuesday and finished on the 1st of December we would still probably be on level 3 for December into January nationwide.

owlbethere · 16-10-2020 12:28PM

Necro wrote: »

I know this has been said repeatedly but without actually enforcing the restrictions as per the levels it isn't going to make any feasible difference.

Anyone that has been following the guidelines isn't the problem, they will continue to do so - crack down on those openly flouting the restrictions and maybe just maybe we can get this under control.

This 100%.

A lot of spread is occurring from household settings. I don't know if that's from someone picking up the virus outside the home and bringing it in or if it's from house parties and gatherings. I suspect its a mixture of both.

There's too many people online and I presume also in real life believing this virus is nothing and it's blown up out of proportion and its just a little cold at most it's a flu and that's not it.

If you were to read a hiv forum, there's something called seroconversion, it's the time from being infected to showing symptoms. It's your bodies way of dealing with an infection. Some people don't have any symptoms after a hiv infection, others feel slightly unwell, others come down with rashes, others come down with full blown flus. Basically everyone's experiences is different after an infection.

Something similar is happening with this coronavirus. Everyones bodies is going to have different responses to an infection. I'm off the opinion that it's something that you don't want to catch or mess with. I think a lot of people is failing to understand the seriousness and the threat that this virus brings about. We absolutely need our authorities to implement enforcement.

I hope you're doing well Necro by the way.

bb1234567 · 16-10-2020 12:28PM

polesheep wrote: »

Usually the quoted risk group is 40% or even more, but it's far from correct as there is a wide range of risk among that group. It would be better to grade the level of risk and plan accordingly.

Yes, increased risk does not mean high risk. Lots of young people have serious health conditions yet there are still very few young covid deaths, clearly age trumps health issues in terms of risk factor

Hulk Hands · 16-10-2020 12:28PM

Longing wrote: »

People in here giving out about NPHET recommendations for the coming weeks is laughable. Tony and NPHET are trying to save your life simple has that. No wonder this country is going down to this virus when you have the likes and mind sided people who only think of number 1.

Tell that to a hairdresser who's spent thousands kitting out the place to be Covid safe and is facing the prospect of months of closed doors again. Possibly losing their business. Spare us the pontificating. You can just as easily be called selfish for having your narrow-minded viewpoint

eggy81 · 16-10-2020 12:28PM

Boggles wrote: »

Here, here.

Replace them with the Vintners.

Why would we do that.

Necro · 16-10-2020 12:29PM

MattS1 wrote: »

It is feasible. Direct more money to ICUs and expand capacity to 2500. Then keep things open and let people live to even a basic degree? Are we all going to live our lives in this shadow for 5 years or just take our chances. I know what I'll be doing.

How? We don't have the trained staff for that many ICU beds - it isn't beds that are the problem

titan18 · 16-10-2020 12:29PM

eggy81 wrote: »

NPHET should be disbanded. All they ever suggest is tighter restrictions. Anyone can suggest that. Need a far more nuanced approach to this and some form of penalty for individuals breaking rules. Cant be locking down the country because certain people can't stick to a few rules for for a few months. It'll lead us to ruin.

They can't do much else. All they can do suggest. They can't create further hospital capacity. That's down to the government, and then even if they suggest penalising people breaking the rules, the Gardai go no we dont want that power

Covid 19 Part XXVI- 50,993 ROI (1,852 deaths) 28,040 NI (621 deaths) (19/10) Read OP

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