Share Picks 2020

RIGOLO · 14-10-2020 04:58PM

Deleted User wrote: »

You're missing the point. IF you believed the price was right, and assuming no fundamental change, then it makes sense to buy on the Dip.

With that said, it falls down because nobody can fully know the share even with significant research. And it's a generalisation for sure, but there's a logic to it.
Enjoy your cycle.

I understand the point , but some here seem to be arguing you should always buy the dip if you believe in a company.
I still stand over my position, thats not always the case, not every dip is worth chasing. I may be wrong, but we all have to make our own decisions.

You have NO IDEA who is on the opposite side of any trade.
Irrespective of whether you belive in the fundamentals of a company or not, if the market makers have decided they want to bring it down, they will and they can and they can keep it down for a very very long time, longer than you can stay solvent.

So every dip IMO is not always a buying oppurtunity, it depends on many things, how you guage the strength of whos bringing it down, short ratio, options market, whats happening in the real world, your time frames, how much cash is on the side etc...

Wall St has everyone investing in companies that have never made a profit and may never will with PEs in the 100s mcaps in the billions, pennies for EPS , theres no fundamental basis for that. We are all coining it, for now.
But equally they are holding back the SP of plenty companies with better balance sheets, better sales and better future with single digit PEs.
Its a rigged game.
cycle was great, Covid numbers are at their record numbers in the city near where I live and I got stuck in traffic cars parked on the kerbside cos everyone was rushing to a circus.. yes believe it or not a circus/fun fair had setup shop in the local playing fields and young uns falling over themselves to get into it for the Wed half day .. I grinned to myself and thought of all my investments in COvid testing companies , thats a dip I will follow.

best of luck to all.

The Phantom Jipper · 14-10-2020 05:24PM

One of the things I struggle with is coming up with an exit point for the stocks I'm in. Does anyone have any site or source that they've found to be reasonably reliable for suggesting target prices?

14-10-2020 05:28PM

The Phantom Jipper wrote: »

Does anyone have any site or source that they've found to be reasonably reliable for suggesting target prices?

It's the reverse of the buy decision? Why did you buy it at that price. If it goes beyond what you think is fair value then sell.

Some stocks will remain relatively stable and people stay with them for Dividend purposes.

The only "rule" I remember someone saying years ago was to sell at 40% gains regardless. But, that was just a personal choice of theirs.

The Phantom Jipper · 14-10-2020 05:54PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

It's the reverse of the buy decision? Why did you buy it at that price. If it goes beyond what you think is fair value then sell.

Some stocks will remain relatively stable and people stay with them for Dividend purposes.

The only "rule" I remember someone saying years ago was to sell at 40% gains regardless. But, that was just a personal choice of theirs.

Aye I'd have a rough idea where I'd see it going when I buy after doing my due diligence but it's nice to have a shortcut to check in from time to time to see if my exit price is still realistic or underamibitious. Yahoo and CNN do aggregations of analysts price targets but I find them to be a bit all over the shop.

Kilboor · 14-10-2020 06:52PM

The Phantom Jipper wrote: »

One of the things I struggle with is coming up with an exit point for the stocks I'm in. Does anyone have any site or source that they've found to be reasonably reliable for suggesting target prices?

Selling your winners and holding/adding to your losers is like cutting the flowers and watering the weeds - Peter Lynch

Jim2007 · 14-10-2020 07:30PM

RIGOLO wrote: »

You have NO IDEA who is on the opposite side of any trade.
Irrespective of whether you belive in the fundamentals of a company or not, if the market makers have decided they want to bring it down, they will and they can and they can keep it down for a very very long time, longer than you can stay solvent.

It should not matter who is on the other side of the deal. And if it does, then you are playing with penny stock and you should not even be there.

Jim2007 · 14-10-2020 07:37PM

The Phantom Jipper wrote: »

One of the things I struggle with is coming up with an exit point for the stocks I'm in. Does anyone have any site or source that they've found to be reasonably reliable for suggesting target prices?

Have a look at the logic behind this book Take Stock. Unfortunately they don't ship it outside the States, but you can sometimes find it on EBay or get someone you know in the States order it and ship it to you.

RIGOLO · 14-10-2020 07:45PM

Jim2007 wrote: »

It should not matter who is on the other side of the deal. And if it does, then you are playing with penny stock and you should not even be there.

Tough day on the market . .dow,nasdaq,s&p all red
Among many other things market has jitters over the stimulus bill not getting signed.

but when your portfolio is still green when the broader market is red then you know all those penny stocks (:rolleyes:) and dips (;)) you didnt buy are working out just the way you planned...thank you LAKE, NCYT, NIO

If variety is the spice of life, diversity is the essence of a portfolio.
have a great powerhour everyone.

Jim2007 · 14-10-2020 07:53PM

The Phantom Jipper wrote: »

Aye I'd have a rough idea where I'd see it going when I buy after doing my due diligence but it's nice to have a shortcut to check in from time to time to see if my exit price is still realistic or underamibitious. Yahoo and CNN do aggregations of analysts price targets but I find them to be a bit all over the shop.

Sorry but these guys know no more that you do and in some cases may be less!

Over thirty years, I had analysts admit to me:
- They only read the company press release....
- They did not read the notes to the accounts
- They have never seen an actual 10-K
- They have never visited any of the company's operations
- They have no knowledge of the competitors etc...
- They only keyed the data from the press release into a pre build model which spewed out the answer! But understanding the model... no not really.

So you got a bunch of guys sitting in an office spewing out reports based on press releases etc... and punishing the stock when they get it wrong.

Personally I never pay any attention to these guys because they are more likely to mess up your thinking than to provide any real insight.

14-10-2020 07:55PM

RIGOLO wrote: »

Tough day on the market . .dow,nasdaq,s&p all red
Among many other things market has jitters over the stimulus bill not getting signed.

but when your portfolio is still green when the broader market is red then you know all those penny stocks (:rolleyes:) and dips (;)) you didnt buy are working out just the way you planned...thank you LAKE, NCYT, NIO

If variety is the spice of life, diversity is the essence of a portfolio.
have a great powerhour everyone.

But, if you bought the stock previously and it now dipped one of two things apply.

1. You got your DD wrong previously and bought at too high a price.
2. The stock is oversold and trust your DD and fill your boots.

If you didn't hold the stock previously it's irrelevant in this scenario

Jim2007 · 14-10-2020 07:59PM

RIGOLO wrote: »

Tough day on the market . .dow,nasdaq,s&p all red
Among many other things market has jitters over the stimulus bill not getting signed.

but when your portfolio is still green when the broader market is red then you know all those penny stocks (:rolleyes:) and dips (;)) you didnt buy are working out just the way you planned...thank you LAKE, NCYT, NIO

If variety is the spice of life, diversity is the essence of a portfolio.
have a great powerhour everyone.

Yea, you will eventually learn just how wrong you are.... but the problem is it will take you about thirty years.

Shedite27 · 14-10-2020 09:19PM

Shedite27 wrote: »

Yeah having a great run for myself too, +15% in October and we're only halfway through. I underperformed in August when big tech had its massive run (Tesla, Apple), so nice to be getting the bounce.

Spoke too soon!

Fastly announced tonight that the TikTok issue resulted in lower usage in TikTok so less income for Fastly - down 28% currently.

Other TikTok customers (that I hold) taking a hit also...
Datadog down 8%
Cloudfare down 8%

No movement in Trade Desk yet but suspect that will take a hit tomorrow too

14-10-2020 10:52PM

IF you can buy in AHs it might be worth buying EDSA. Insiders released SEC records of buying significant Share Options at Market value just before close. I see huge growth for this company, wouldn't rule out a company buy out.

Mickiemcfist · 14-10-2020 11:42PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

IF you can buy in AHs it might be worth buying EDSA. Insiders released SEC records of buying significant Share Options at Market value just before close. I see huge growth for this company, wouldn't rule out a company buy out.

Holy hell thats had a rough ride over the last few years

crushproof · 15-10-2020 12:04AM

Shedite27 wrote: »

No movement in Trade Desk yet but suspect that will take a hit tomorrow too

Superb performance recently so hopefully just a minor dip before continuing its rise

RIGOLO · 15-10-2020 08:15AM

Jim2007 wrote: »

Yea, you will eventually learn just how wrong you are.... but the problem is it will take you about thirty years.

ohh that struck deep...

Yesterdays Financial Times had a very amusing article, quite timely given yesterdays back and forth on this same topic..

and to think some posters on this thread claim it doesnt matter who is on the other side of your trade... tut tut tut :rolleyes:

its paywall .. well worth the expense, I snipped a bit below..

https://www.ft.com/content/0a14e904-5fac-41bd-a9b4-a8a588db15c5

Hedge fund short sellers target pandemic winners.
Shares linked to home computing and gym equipment, grocery retail and healthcare soared when the pandemic forced countries into lockdown earlier this year. Many were lifted by hopes that changing behaviour and shopping patterns as a result of Covid-19 would feed through into stronger, long-term earnings growth, even though some companies have until recently been unprofitable.

But some hedge fund managers are now betting against those stocks, in the belief that the boost to company earnings will fade away faster than many investors anticipate.

so people in black and pink (pun intended) fyi your up against the whales with billion dollar wallets, long term strategys to take down some of your 2020 winners .
And in an alternate universe this information doesnt matter to your portfolio

Kickstart1.3 · 15-10-2020 08:36AM

Good time to Buy Peloton so

15-10-2020 08:56AM

Mickiemcfist wrote: »

Holy hell thats had a rough ride over the last few years

I think you might be taking the share price drop over the years at face value. This is STILL a very small cap company with news for a potential game changing Covid Therapy (amongst others). They have issued some shares over the last few years, which will affect how the chart looks which may confuse some people (cough).

TLDR Be careful how you read charts.

RIGOLO · 15-10-2020 09:44AM

Kickstart1.3 wrote: »

Good time to Buy Peloton so

I will pass on PELOTON I am already heavily invested in bicycle stock, 11 at the last count,

not including the kids.

Yesterdays FT article certainly made me sit up and rethink.
The FT is always prescient on what way the wind will blow down the road.

It made me rethink the whole cloud market, will these unprofitable companies eventually be exposed like the Emperors new clothes.
The 5G and IOT 'boom' we are promised, will it materialise or is it all locked in a 'proof of concept' cycle (TheReg wrote on this) but still 5G&IOT are far off from penetrating society.
For now balance sheets dont matter to Wall St., maybe one day soon they will.
But isnt that the game , there are no rules only profit.

Shedite27 · 15-10-2020 12:22PM

RIGOLO wrote: »

I will pass on PELOTON I am already heavily invested in bicycle stock, 11 at the last count, not including the kids.

Yesterdays FT article certainly made me sit up and rethink.
The FT is always prescient on what way the wind will blow down the road.

It made me rethink the whole cloud market, will these unprofitable companies eventually be exposed like the Emperors new clothes.
The 5G and IOT 'boom' we are promised, will it materialise or is it all locked in a 'proof of concept' cycle (TheReg wrote on this) but still 5G&IOT are far off from penetrating society.
For now balance sheets dont matter to Wall St., maybe one day soon they will.
But isnt that the game , there are no rules only profit.

I hate the word "cloud". Every synopsis of a company you read now has "cloud based" in the first 10 words. It's a bit like saying "uses technology" at this stage. Every modern company has moved to cloud now. In the end it boils down to what the company does. Remove the words "cloud-based solution" and see if the company still makes sense.

With regards to 5G, I agree we're miles off getting benefit from 5G. Does it really matter that I can watch cat videos without buffering in Dublin? Coz that's all 5G is gonna do in 2020/21. The real benefit of 5G hasn't even been developed yet.
- allowing cars to talk to car companies in real time to aid driverless cars.
- ensure constant speed to allow a surgeon in Europe perform an operation via robots on a patient in America.
- allow police cameras to be consistently monitored in real time to prevent crimes before they happen.
- traffic lights that can be adjusted remotely to allow for traffic flow.

All these are done to some extent at the moment but 5G will give us the consistency for these to be commonplace and reliable. I'm sure Elon Musk and Silicon Valley have ideas that we can't even fathom right now. 5G will be the infrastructure that allows their ideas come to fruition.

RIGOLO · 15-10-2020 01:21PM

Shedite27 wrote: »

I hate the word "cloud". Every synopsis of a company you read now has "cloud based" in the first 10 words. It's a bit like saying "uses technology" at this stage. Every modern company has moved to cloud now. In the end it boils down to what the company does. Remove the words "cloud-based solution" and see if the company still makes sense.

With regards to 5G, I agree we're miles off getting benefit from 5G. Does it really matter that I can watch cat videos without buffering in Dublin? Coz that's all 5G is gonna do in 2020/21. The real benefit of 5G hasn't even been developed yet.
- allowing cars to talk to car companies in real time to aid driverless cars.
- ensure constant speed to allow a surgeon in Europe perform an operation via robots on a patient in America.
- allow police cameras to be consistently monitored in real time to prevent crimes before they happen.
- traffic lights that can be adjusted remotely to allow for traffic flow.

All these are done to some extent at the moment but 5G will give us the consistency for these to be commonplace and reliable. I'm sure Elon Musk and Silicon Valley have ideas that we can't even fathom right now. 5G will be the infrastructure that allows their ideas come to fruition.

I concur. To some degree its become a meaningless term at this point. They covered your exact point on CNBC SquakBox this AM, they got to the point where they were discussing if they themselves the 'physical presenters' were in the cloud. I love when they just riff stream of conciousness on whats happening in the market and go off on tangents.

Looks like the market are following our lead, who knew Boards was so trendsetting . FSLY is taking a big hit as are many tech and 'fluffy things in the sky' companies.

5G wil have benefits but the jurys out on when, its like many silicon valley creations .. Its a great solution looking for a problem!
GLTA .. pay heed , the hedge funds and shorts are coming for your lunch money and there are no teachers around .
afternoon cycle time.. portfolio is green so far lets see how much we lose on this spin when the US opens

Treppen · 15-10-2020 01:25PM

Shedite27 wrote: »

I hate the word "cloud". Every synopsis of a company you read now has "cloud based" in the first 10 words. It's a bit like saying "uses technology" at this stage. Every modern company has moved to cloud now. In the end it boils down to what the company does. Remove the words "cloud-based solution" and see if the company still makes sense.

With regards to 5G, I agree we're miles off getting benefit from 5G. Does it really matter that I can watch cat videos without buffering in Dublin? Coz that's all 5G is gonna do in 2020/21. The real benefit of 5G hasn't even been developed yet.
- allowing cars to talk to car companies in real time to aid driverless cars.
- ensure constant speed to allow a surgeon in Europe perform an operation via robots on a patient in America.
- allow police cameras to be consistently monitored in real time to prevent crimes before they happen.
- traffic lights that can be adjusted remotely to allow for traffic flow.

All these are done to some extent at the moment but 5G will give us the consistency for these to be commonplace and reliable. I'm sure Elon Musk and Silicon Valley have ideas that we can't even fathom right now. 5G will be the infrastructure that allows their ideas come to fruition.

At the moment Microsoft are moving from selling consoles for money to selling gamepass subscriptions for money. I can stream from the Xbox library now to my mobile, pc , Android TV box.

Jesper · 15-10-2020 01:28PM

RIGOLO wrote: »

I concur. To some degree its become a meaningless term at this point. They covered your exact point on CNBC SquakBox this AM, they got to the point where they were discussing if they themselves the 'physical presenters' were in the cloud. I love when they just riff stream of conciousness on whats happening in the market and go off on tangents.

Looks like the market are following our lead, who knew Boards was so trendsetting . FSLY is taking a big hit as are many tech and 'fluffy things in the sky' companies.

5G wil have benefits but the jurys out on when, its like many silicon valley creations .. Its a great solution looking for a problem!
GLTA .. pay heed , the hedge funds and shorts are coming for your lunch money and there are no teachers around .
afternoon cycle time.. portfolio is green so far lets see how much we lose on this spin when the US opens

Personally I think FSLY will be oversold today and might be a buying opportunity - but everything in the clowd is overvalued so who knows.

Your CNBC comment made me think of the new Amazon TV show uploaded. I enjoyed series 1 at least. Very smart.
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt7826376/

Shedite27 · 15-10-2020 01:34PM

Shedite27 wrote: »

Been a good one to buy the dips. Since July it's gone $78 - $102 - $78 - $116 - $78 - $95 - $78 - $95.

You can see where it's got very solid support, will break out north eventually (probably once the moving averages catch up)

Updating my Fastly tracker, YTD is now...
$78 - $102 - $78 - $116 - $78 - $95 - $78 - $128 - $86 (currently, might even bounce to $78 again today?)

neris · 15-10-2020 01:53PM

Shedite27 wrote: »

I hate the word "cloud". Every synopsis of a company you read now has "cloud based" in the first 10 words. It's a bit like saying "uses technology" at this stage. Every modern company has moved to cloud now. In the end it boils down to what the company does. Remove the words "cloud-based solution" and see if the company still makes sense.

We Work was & is the best & prime example of a company pigging backing on "Tech" when its core business was so far removed from tech or the cloud

DutchYurt · 15-10-2020 04:31PM

Shedite27 wrote: »

Updating my Fastly tracker, YTD is now...
$78 - $102 - $78 - $116 - $78 - $95 - $78 - $128 - $86 (currently, might even bounce to $78 again today?)

What's your thoughts, will it go lower or bounce back? I'm tempted to go in but think there might be some pain tomorrow

Nemeses2050 · 15-10-2020 04:44PM

DutchYurt wrote: »

What's your thoughts, will it go lower or bounce back? I'm tempted to go in but think there might be some pain tomorrow

In the same boat was hoping it would touch 78-79 levels, would just hold jumping today though.

with Red everywhere, what are folks looking at? I'm down 5% this week

Kilboor · 15-10-2020 04:49PM

Nemeses2050 wrote: »

In the same boat was hoping it would touch 78-79 levels, would just hold jumping today though.

with Red everywhere, what are folks looking at? I'm down 5% this week

I'm still green on this red day, thank God for GameStop and Providence.

Only thing I want to buy more of is UpWork as I've said before. Haven't had the time to research as much as I would have liked in recent weeks

Timmaay · 15-10-2020 04:59PM

Kilboor wrote: »

I'm still green on this red day, thank God for GameStop and Providence.

Only thing I want to buy more of is UpWork as I've said before. Haven't had the time to research as much as I would have liked in recent weeks

Thank God for NIO here, green 5% when absolutely every other stock of mine is red lol.

Kilboor · 15-10-2020 05:06PM

As a matter of interest how many stocks are people holding at any one time ? I don't like to go above 5 personally, and usually love holding 3 well researched long plays leaving 2 for some swing trading if I'm up for it.

Share Picks 2020

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