Covid 19 Part XXV-44,159 ROI (1,830 deaths) 21,898 NI (598 deaths) (13/10) Read OP

seamus · 08-10-2020 01:53PM

Looney1 wrote: »

If they are any way consistent and considering the worsening numbers they must recommend 5 again

The numbers are going to continue worsening regardless of what level we're at.

NPHET will continue recommending level 5, because they've blown their load now and they cannot get any more alarmed.

The only thing that will change the government's approach is evidence that the numbers are getting substantially worse than their models forecast on Sunday.

At the moment, they're not.

stephenjmcd · 08-10-2020 01:53PM

Eod100 wrote: »

3 weeks becomes 10 days https://twitter.com/MichealLehane/status/1314175676623269889?s=19

Well its quite simple you won't see any impact of level 3 in 10 days

440Hertz · 08-10-2020 01:53PM

The biggest problem is that this thing expands exponentially and not at a steady pace and from what I can see in Ireland and elsewhere we can’t seem to get out puny political minds around that.

It goes 1, 2, 3, 4, .... 156 .... 252... 497 ... 634 ... seeding and then boom, it’s everywhere! It’s done this before and it will do it again and again and again. Our treatment regimes are a bit better, but that’s all.

From what I can see we're damned if we do and we’re damned if we don’t when it comes to lockdowns.

If this gets very bad this winter it’s going to be a social and economic disaster both in Ireland, Europe and anywhere else regardless.

At this stage I’m just not sure any of us really knows how to manage it. Our societies can’t really be just shut down over and over, at least not without serious economic impact and on the other side of if loads of us start getting very sick, to the point that we can’t cope with that in healthcare, the economy will falter anyway.

It’s an absolute mess. We should have locked down in the early days of the crisis ans prevented inward spread in the first place, but human exceptionalism and unfamiliarity with pandemics meant that was politically and economically impossible. We didn’t calculate the risk properly.

So it just seems we are in a total mess and there’s no exit strategy until vaccines or some magic bullet drug treatment.

Kermit.de.frog · 08-10-2020 01:53PM

The north is now in a crisis due to ignorance of a significant minority who simply refuse to follow the rules.

The health minister there today rightfully calling those people out

https://twitter.com/healthdpt/status/1314151226339192832

It's time politicians here were also more fortright about our significant minority who put this country at risk.

Every time one of those demented mask protests take place in Dublin, for example, it's your health and livelihoods being put at grave risk by those individuals.

I don't know how much clearer the message has to be for some people.

odyssey06 · 08-10-2020 01:53PM

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Level 5 weekends countrywide is way to go, While staying at Level 2 weekdays,
except in Dublin and those other level 3 places, they should be at Level 3, with Level 5 weekends.

Interesting idea, but I think it'd just compress parties, surge of non-essential retail etc into Thursday nights.

TonyMaloney · 08-10-2020 01:54PM

Boggles wrote: »

The effects won't have kicked in by then.

This is what happens when Muldoons pretend they are scientists.

He must - MUST - know this

We all think we're living through a pandemic, but actually it's really just Leo's quest to become taoiseach for a second time

weldoninhio · 08-10-2020 01:55PM

Mwengwe wrote: »

Can we not just ban this kind of stupidity?

Can't argue the point, resorts to name calling. Bravo. :rolleyes:

seamus · 08-10-2020 01:57PM

Curious thing I found this morning.

The HSE algorithm for under-13s says that if someone meets the criteria for a COVID test, but refuses the test, then the GP must treat them as a confirmed case.

This immediately brings up two questions

- Does this also apply for adults?
- How many confirmed COVID cases reported to the HPSC have NOT been tested?

bennyl10 · 08-10-2020 01:57PM

Gael23 wrote: »

The numbers in Dublin are reducing so Level 3 works.

All the lockdown merchants will be disappointed

The 14 incidence is not dropping by anywhere near what we need it to, so no it’s not.

Hasn’t worked in Donegal as of yet either

No one wants lockdown

But it is becoming very clear it is the only way to protect our health service.

weldoninhio · 08-10-2020 01:58PM

odyssey06 wrote: »

It's pretty obvious they are looking at hospital and ICU capacity.
If \ when that is exceeded, start adding bunches of those in the last 2 months who were treated and recovered in hospital to the death % - cos the capacity won't be there to treat them.

Disaster is always just around the next corner, and when it doesn't happen, its around the next corner. We're going in circles.

Roots 2020 · 08-10-2020 01:58PM

Gael23 wrote: »

The numbers in Dublin are reducing so Level 3 works.

All the lockdown merchants will be disappointed

Stabilising, not reducing.

Jinglejangle69 · 08-10-2020 01:59PM

TonyMaloney wrote: »

He must - MUST - know this

We all think we're living through a pandemic, but actually it's really just Leo's quest to become taoiseach for a second time

Or maybe their using Dublin and Donegal as a gauge as they have been in 3 weeks already.

So in 10 days they will look at those numbers and decide.

weldoninhio · 08-10-2020 01:59PM

ixoy wrote: »

Not sure how you run a museum or the libraries, including the National Library, from home..

My library was doing a delivery system while it was closed down.

is_that_so · 08-10-2020 01:59PM

TonyMaloney wrote: »

He must - MUST - know this

We all think we're living through a pandemic, but actually it's really just Leo's quest to become taoiseach for a second time

It's a different kind of message, not the usual next 7 days critical thing, it's 10 days or else. There's no real reason to doubt him in this either as it's been flagged. They need to annoy us day and night with reminders!

Funsterdelux · 08-10-2020 02:00PM

weldoninhio wrote: »

Disaster is always just around the next corner, and when it doesn't happen, its around the next corner. We're going in circles.

Thats nonesense

Circles dont have corners

Jesus christ its basic geometry

Stheno · 08-10-2020 02:01PM

seamus wrote: »

Curious thing I found this morning.

The HSE algorithm for under-13s says that if someone meets the criteria for a COVID test, but refuses the test, then the GP must treat them as a confirmed case.

This immediately brings up two questions

- Does this also apply for adults?
- How many confirmed COVID cases reported to the HPSC have NOT been tested?

Hold on - Going by that criteria, is it possible that the 25% of close contacts who do not attend for a test could be counted in the positive figures?

08-10-2020 02:01PM

Gael23 wrote: »

The numbers in Dublin are reducing so Level 3 works.

All the lockdown merchants will be disappointed

Plateaued - too early to say they are reducing

ClancyPants · 08-10-2020 02:01PM

Gael23 wrote: »

The numbers in Dublin are reducing so Level 3 works.

All the lockdown merchants will be disappointed

Wrong. They are not reducing. The rate of growth as compared to 2 weeks ago is reducing. But having seen your comments across a few threads, it's unlikely that you really understand the difference.

Icantthinkof1 · 08-10-2020 02:02PM

seamus wrote: »

Curious thing I found this morning.

The HSE algorithm for under-13s says that if someone meets the criteria for a COVID test, but refuses the test, then the GP must treat them as a confirmed case.

This immediately brings up two questions

- Does this also apply for adults?
- How many confirmed COVID cases reported to the HPSC have NOT been tested?

Strange why would a parent refuse to have their child/ children tested?
I would understand why maybe before as the nasal test is quite invasive for a child but not with the way the test is now for children

caveat emptor · 08-10-2020 02:04PM

So seen as though NPHET recommended level 5 last time and we went with level 3, i suppose they’ll recommend level 6 and we’ll go with level 4?

is_that_so · 08-10-2020 02:04PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Plateaued - too early to say they are reducing

They may shoot up over the next few weeks anyway. I believe a new test kit is on the way next week which will reduce lab time substantially.

weldoninhio · 08-10-2020 02:04PM

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Make it forceable so.

We have lost a large amount of people at this stage.

Only thing that will change their mind is fines and jail.

Isn't excess mortality at the same rate as every other year??

caveat emptor · 08-10-2020 02:05PM

is_that_so wrote: »

They may shoot up over the next few weeks anyway. I believe a new test kit is on the way next week which will reduce lab time substantially.

And decrease accuracy so it’s hardly worth doing.

completedit · 08-10-2020 02:05PM

As someone who is anti-lockdown and pretty much believes the whole thing is mass hysteria, I have to ask myself, what would I consider an acceptable amount of deaths to proceed with the course we(by and large the whole of Europe) have. My view is that it is not the Spanish Flu but why is the Spanish flu a reference point? How do you even run a cost benefit analysis with something like this? This is my attempt to counter my own view on the situation. I find myself too dogmatically being anti-lockdown, anti-restrictions etc. because I genuinely believe the cost outweighs the benefits, but that's just my general eyeballing of the situation. Really, it's a philosophical and moral debate. Some could even say that a reduction in population would ultimately benefit mankind as a whole as we face down the barrel of climate catastrophe.

Very scattered thinking above but it is a complicated situation.

08-10-2020 02:06PM

Stheno wrote: »

Hold on - Going by that criteria, is it possible that the 25% of close contacts who do not attend for a test could be counted in the positive figures?

Even if it were the case, which I doubt, they wont be included in positive swab data

Roots 2020 · 08-10-2020 02:07PM

is_that_so wrote: »

They may shoot up over the next few weeks anyway. I believe a new test kit is on the way next week which will reduce lab time substantially.

Do these things make much difference though..

Back in the summer the amount of back slapping about the contact tracing app, we had over 1 million downloads etc. Has that made any real difference?

is_that_so · 08-10-2020 02:07PM

caveat emptor wrote: »

And decrease accuracy so it’s hardly worth doing.

If you have information please share otherwise this is just a snarky one liner.

Kermit.de.frog · 08-10-2020 02:08PM

North reports 923 new cases and 1 new death.

Paddygreen · 08-10-2020 02:08PM

Eod100 wrote: »

NPHET expect adherence to drip over Christmas. They're thinking is whether thsts 50 cases or 500 cases entering Christmas makes a huge difference with exponential growth

Christmas will inevitably have to be canceled, it’s just too risky as we are aware that all forms of fun and joy spread the virus. We should use that time to reflect on the death and misery of the past number of months. We could put candles in our windows as a moving symbol of national mourning, that would be great. It would also be a great time for the hundreds of thousands newly unemployed to get their arses in gear and think about looking for a job. Those of you who had what are now obsolete jobs like Bar workers, Chefs, hotel staff, tour guides, musicians, artists, non essential retailers and their staff, wedding planners, etc etc etc to think about reskilling, cleaning is booming atm guys.

Boggles · 08-10-2020 02:08PM

seamus wrote: »

Curious thing I found this morning.

The HSE algorithm for under-13s says that if someone meets the criteria for a COVID test, but refuses the test, then the GP must treat them as a confirmed case.

This immediately brings up two questions

- Does this also apply for adults?
- How many confirmed COVID cases reported to the HPSC have NOT been tested?

GPs don't determine who is Covid positive or not.

How could they?

GPs are told who are positive by a confirmed laboratory test.

Covid 19 Part XXV-44,159 ROI (1,830 deaths) 21,898 NI (598 deaths) (13/10) Read OP

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