Covid 19 Part XXV-44,159 ROI (1,830 deaths) 21,898 NI (598 deaths) (13/10) Read OP

spookwoman · 07-10-2020 07:09PM

Arghus · 07-10-2020 07:09PM

I could foresee a pincer movement on Donelley soon enough. Feels like things might align for him to be the blood sacrifice.

07-10-2020 07:09PM

So Nolan’s modelling has an r0 of around 1.2. Prevent 20% of current infections and it stops growing. Why the need for level 5?

landofthetree · 07-10-2020 07:10PM

manniot2 wrote: »

I see the latest round of shaming has commenced. This time bullying people out of trick or treating with their kids. Xmas next, paddy’s day, Easter. We won’t feel it till we’re shamed out of going on holidays next summer.

Trick or treat is American rubbish.

It should be banned forever.

khalessi · 07-10-2020 07:10PM

Icyseanfitz wrote: »

was there any questions on schools?

around the 54 minute journalist from Jrnl.ie

is_that_so · 07-10-2020 07:11PM

landofthetree wrote: »

Trick or treat is American rubbish.

It should be banned forever.

Actually it's not. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trick-or-treating#Origins

martingriff · 07-10-2020 07:11PM

Thierry12 wrote: »

It still wouldn't make 20 days

Would have to be a load of people over 20 days to make it an average, as in loads of people with 30/40 day stays

I made all patients average in my model :pac:

Ya you be right there I was more explaining averages and why he was multiplying patients by days as there would be more then one patient in hospital. It must be ICU and high dependency they meant though that still seems high

bennyl10 · 07-10-2020 07:11PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

So Nolan’s modelling has an r0 of around 1.2. Prevent 20% of current infections and it stops growing. Why the need for level 5?

Because our health service can’t handle further serious growth!

Wolf359f · 07-10-2020 07:12PM

Thierry12 wrote: »

20 days average hospital stay for Covid can't be right?

3,676 patients have went to hospital with Covid

That's 73,520 hospital days

Covid is here what 200 days, nearly 7 months?

367 patients daily on average have been staying in hospital over the last 7 months

I don't get it, anyone good at the math?

Using the most recent stats I could find, there's been 48328 hospital days with covid patients (215 days in total with an average of 224.74 patients per day). There was a total of 3701 patients in that timeframe, gives me an average stay of 13 days.
My math or understand could be wrong, but I'm open for correction.

manniot2 · 07-10-2020 07:13PM

landofthetree wrote: »

Trick or treat is American rubbish.

It should be banned forever.

Using Covid to get rid of things you don’t enjoy. Seems a running trend with the lockdown people.

Spanish Eyes · 07-10-2020 07:13PM

Maybe good enough for the over indulged kids. Halloween, NO. Communion and loadsa moolah No, Confirmation and moolah No. Christmas, not sure.

I reckon the parents are more worried than the kids. Just throw them a few bob yourself in fivers and there will be no Mental Health issues for the kids.

Said with the utmost respect for those who actually ARE suffering MH wise, but kids? Nah.

JP Liz V1 · 07-10-2020 07:16PM

Funsterdelux wrote: »

What time do you take a dump at?

Was that asked :eek:

Thespoofer · 07-10-2020 07:17PM

Maybe its the weather , maybe it's just me but who here thinks we'll be in full lockdown again ?

Ficheall · 07-10-2020 07:18PM

I see Donnelly tweeting to celebrate his 100th day in the role :rolleyes:

landofthetree · 07-10-2020 07:18PM

Number of available general beds in our hospitals was 316 two days ago. It was 262 at the start of September.

https://mobile.twitter.com/DavQuinn/status/1313900877850312704

Blondini · 07-10-2020 07:19PM

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

Was that asked :eek:

Lol

07-10-2020 07:19PM

bennyl10 wrote: »

Because our health service can’t handle further serious growth!

Growth rate is 1.2 - so we don’t need to change much to get it below 1. And if it’s below 1 it’s not growing

Icyseanfitz · 07-10-2020 07:20PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Growth rate is 1.2 - so we don’t need to change much to get it below 1. And if it’s below 1 it’s not growing

surely its going to continue growing for a while yet, 1.2 won't be the peak r number

JP Liz V1 · 07-10-2020 07:21PM

Blondini wrote: »

Lol

Given this year I genuinely think it could be asked

:D

Randle P. McMurphy · 07-10-2020 07:21PM

manniot2 wrote: »

I see the latest round of shaming has commenced. This time bullying people out of trick or treating with their kids. Xmas next, paddy’s day, Easter. We won’t feel it till we’re shamed out of going on holidays next summer.

Why would anyone need to be bullied out of trick or treating with their kids? Surely no parents are even contemplating that.

polesheep · 07-10-2020 07:21PM

On the first day of Christmas my true love gave to me,
A virus beginning with a C.

gizmo23 · 07-10-2020 07:22PM

Thespoofer wrote: »

Maybe its the weather , maybe it's just me but who here thinks we'll be in full lockdown again ?

100% there will be. And it's not because of this goverment its not because of NPHET its because of the failings of the last 20 years to make our health service fit for purpose.

The goverment probably know level 4/5 is needed despite what people here think they are not all morons.... but on to announce level 5 on monday without details of how they would deal with business's the unemployed, schools etc. Would have sent us into a far far worse position.

I always taught level 3 was a time buying exercise after that briefing I am now sure of it

spookwoman · 07-10-2020 07:22PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Growth rate is 1.2 - so we don’t need to change much to get it below 1. And if it’s below 1 it’s not growing

He also said that the drop in Dublin numbers could be skewing the national number and it could be 1.4.

Hurrache · 07-10-2020 07:22PM

manniot2 wrote: »

I see the latest round of shaming has commenced. This time bullying people out of trick or treating with their kids. Xmas next, paddy’s day, Easter. We won’t feel it till we’re shamed out of going on holidays next summer.

It's basic cop on for jaysus sake. Get off the cross.

JP100 · 07-10-2020 07:22PM

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Maybe good enough for the over indulged kids. Halloween, NO. Communion and loadsa moolah No, Confirmation and moolah No. Christmas, not sure.

I reckon the parents are more worried than the kids. Just throw them a few bob yourself in fivers and there will be no Mental Health issues for the kids.

Said with the utmost respect for those who actually ARE suffering MH wise, but kids? Nah.

Spot on.

s1ippy · 07-10-2020 07:24PM

Icyseanfitz wrote: »

was there any questions on schools?

Rubbish ones. Here's a synopsis I quickly transcribed.

Q. Do we have a definitive number around covid 19 cases arising from schools?

A. They gave figures up to 28th September, 183 schools who had undergone mass testing.

18 schools and 9 childcare facilities had more than one linked case.

In many instances a case will have arisen through other activities in the community. It can be difficult to determine that the case occurred within the school setting.

Q. Is the fact that the numbers increased in the school aged group from 567pw at the end of August (age 5 - 14) to 1323 to 4th August (more than double) significant?

A. Glynn said the absolute number of cases across all age groups are increasing.

Q. Journo said if you look at the cohort it rises from 1.97% to 3.43% of all cases

A. 2-Friends Nolan leapt in to say that you can't just look at the raw numbers, the proportion of cases in children as a percentage of the age structure of the population. How much is each cohort contributing to the overall incidence which is growing quickly and the incidence in primary and secondary school children is growing more slowly than in the overall population.

Prof Numberwang is going to put together a big load of nonsense and present something to verify what they want to prove there with schools not being a driver of transmission, but good and all as he is on other fronts I'd say that modelling might as well go in the bin. He has been an absolute tosser for jiggery pokery with school numbers.

langer91 · 07-10-2020 07:24PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Growth rate is 1.2 - so we don’t need to change much to get it below 1. And if it’s below 1 it’s not growing

He also said take Dublin out and the R number is closer to 1.5 for every other county

07-10-2020 07:24PM

Icyseanfitz wrote: »

surely its going to continue growing for a while yet, 1.2 won't be the peak r number

The r number is less now than it was in August. It was nearly 2 at one point. Cases are growing, but the average person with this virus is transmitting to less people now than they were in August. Despite 1 million disease vectors returning to schools

Gods Gift · 07-10-2020 07:25PM

polesheep wrote: »

On the first day of Christmas my true love gave to me,
A virus beginning with a C.

chlamydia

verizon · 07-10-2020 07:25PM

spookwoman wrote: »

He also said that the drop in Dublin numbers could be skewing the national number and it could be 1.4.

But that's also a view of optimism. We should be praising the drop in numbers of Dublin and encourage the likes of Cork, Galway and Donegal to follow suit.

The counties that have previously been very low are also remaining low. It's the unfortunate high cases in Cork, Galway and Donegal that account for these the high R number.

I feel like the County by County levels should not be thrown away so quickly

Covid 19 Part XXV-44,159 ROI (1,830 deaths) 21,898 NI (598 deaths) (13/10) Read OP

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