Covid 19 Part XXV-44,159 ROI (1,830 deaths) 21,898 NI (598 deaths) (13/10) Read OP

SeaBreezes · 07-10-2020 12:41PM

polesheep wrote: »

It would be great if you could devote a little of your time every day to discrediting fake science. You do a very good job of it. It's appreciated.

You know thats the study done on the coronavirus for the common cold following these people over a number of years, right?

Theres no argument in science on length of immunity from the common cold as far as I know.

How on earth is that fake science?

07-10-2020 12:41PM

SeaBreezes wrote: »

So, we know of reinfection cases, we know antibodies wane, we know Tcells and CD8 cells are damaged and aged by 10 years with each infection. All science fact.
We know other coronavirus immunities last for about a year.

What are you basing your 'reinfection isnt the norm' on?
Belief?

We know of reinfections yes but so far they are extremely rare and almost all did not progress beyond mild. Antibodies waning is normal. You're immune system is more complicated than that. Per your own link the effect on T-cells was only observed in severe cases and only in a small subset of cells. The long term effects of that are hard to say without further study. The "aged 10 years with each infection" bit you added yourself.

As for coronavirus immunities that's oversimplifying it a bit. We do become vulnerable to reinfection over time but subsequent infections tend to be shorter with less viral shedding so we do retain some immunity. The common cold coronaviruses were likely once every bit as deadly as Covid. One (OC43) is the main candidate for the Russian Flu pandemic in 1889/90. Over time our adaptive immunity well....adapted.

Funsterdelux · 07-10-2020 12:48PM

funnydoggy wrote: »

Great stuff. Should've been policy everywhere from the start.

I guess they waited to see what way the wind was blowing

i'll get my coat

KrustyUCC · 07-10-2020 12:52PM

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

I think that is the biggest issue with going to level 5. People mostly followed the rules last time around, but I don't believe they'll do it again. The house parties, social visits will continue.

So, level 5 could lead to only a slow and gradual drop in case numbers. This would leave us in level 5 for months, disastrous for the economy. People might accept a well flagged, circuit breaker Level 5 lockdown for a maximum of 3 weeks. It could include school closures to maximize the impact. I think people would go with that if they were given certainty it would end quickly.

The biggest issue there is that the circuit breaker wouldn't just be for three weeks

NPHET want at least 4 minimum

Even if it was successful and only at 4 weeks then we would go for level 4 for four weeks then level three for 4 weeks etc

That's all going exceptionally well

NPHET and Tony Houlihan were very reluctant to ease restrictions the first time around and would be even more cautious this time

I don't think anybody would expect it to be just short, sharp, over and out circuit breaker

SeaBreezes · 07-10-2020 12:53PM

Hardyn wrote: »

We know of reinfections yes but so far they are extremely rare and almost all did not progress beyond mild. Antibodies waning is normal. You're immune system is more complicated than that. Per your own link the effect on T-cells was only overserved in severe cases and only in a small subset of cells. The long term effects of that are hard to say without further study. The "aged 10 years with each infection" bit you added yourself.

As for coronavirus immunities that's oversimplifying it a bit. We do become vulnerable to reinfection over time but subsequent infections tend to be shorter with less viral shedding so we do retain some immunity. The common cold coronaviruses were likely once every bit as deadly as Covid. One (OC43) is the main candidate for the Russian Flu pandemic in 1889/90. Over time our adaptive immunity well....adapted.

No, the aged 10.years was a comment from Dr Anthony Leonardi the guy with the Doctorate in Tcell immunology. See previous post

Did you even read the guardian article I posted?
What they say about severity of second infection? And why?

And did OC43 age Tcells in the same way?
Leave the same organ damage?

Look, I hope hes wrong. I really do.
But saying the norm is immunity once youve had it is just NOT proven. And theres more data in regards sarscov2 to be cautious.

Your argument for herd immunity is a completely differemt virus. Yes, once you have measles your immune too. But thats a whole different virus.

Anyway, stepping back here. Getting attacked for providing info. I hope theyre wrong. But (shrug) its up to you what you want to do with the info.

bb1234567 · 07-10-2020 12:58PM

Strumms wrote: »

100% A clinical/psychological evaluation is the only way to diagnose a person with a medical or mental health issue.

I can’t rock up to my best mate tomorrow and say.... “I am depressed”. Nor can I say “I have heart disease”.. in both scenarios I’ll need the view of a qualified practitioner following a consultation / examination.

“Im so depressed”

“I have heart disease”

“I have asthma”

You have none of those illnesses unless you are diagnosed by a currently qualified psychologist, doctor etc.... if they TELL you that you are depressed or suffering from cancer or asthma then you have been diagnosed with those conditions. Like you can have suicidal thoughts and tendencies because of certain infrequent triggers too

If you haven’t been and are feeling unwell, seek help. But let’s not kid ourselves too many people are using the mental heath angle, in particular as it relates to covid so they may absolve themselves and others around from having to be a team player.

I get what you mean particularly the last line bolded as I feel that is being used a lot and thrown around lately. But in reality it's not so clear cut, you can experience depressive symptoms and episodes without having full depression or for example be mentally stable but experience suicidal thoughts or tendencies brought on by infrequent but severe triggers

Non solum non ambulabit · 07-10-2020 01:03PM

KrustyUCC wrote: »

The biggest issue there is that the circuit breaker wouldn't just be for three weeks

NPHET want at least 4 minimum

Even if it was successful and only at 4 weeks then we would go for level 4 for four weeks then level three for 4 weeks etc

That's all going exceptionally well

NPHET and Tony Houlihan were very reluctant to ease restrictions the first time around and would be even more cautious this time

I don't think anybody would expect it to be just short, sharp, over and out circuit breaker

There is zero chance of Tony recommending a Level drop in the middle of winter. It just won't happen.

Level 3 is now as low as we'll go until well into 2021.

caveat emptor · 07-10-2020 01:04PM

More Leo lies.....

https://twitter.com/GabrielScally/status/1313735137599918080?s=20

Cluedo Monopoly · 07-10-2020 01:05PM

I think there is a lot of confusion around the new Level 3 restrictions. A colleague of mine was shocked today when he heard inter-county travel was restricted to essential travel only. Dublin have already had this for weeks. I think a lot of people haven't bothered to read up on what the new levels and restrictions are.

Cluedo Monopoly · 07-10-2020 01:06PM

Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »

There is zero chance of Tony recommending a Level drop in the middle of winter. It just won't happen.

Level 3 is now as low as we'll go until well into 2021.

I agree. I doubt we will fall below Level 3 until April 2021 at earliest.

07-10-2020 01:08PM

SeaBreezes wrote: »

No, the aged 10.years was a comment from Dr Anthony Leonardi the guy with the Doctorate in Tcell immunology. See previous post

Did you even read the guardian article I posted?
What they say about severity of second infection? And why?

And did OC43 age Tcells in the same way?
Leave the same organ damage?

Look, I hope hes wrong. I really do.
But saying the norm is immunity once youve had it is just NOT proven. And theres more data in regards sarscov2 to be cautious.

Your argument for herd immunity is a completely differemt virus. Yes, once you have measles your immune too. But thats a whole different virus.

Anyway, stepping back here. Getting attacked for providing info. I hope theyre wrong. But (shrug) its up to you what you want to do with the info.

Apologies then. I missed that quote. As for that Guardian article, it is full of supposition and very little facts. I'm not sure what the point of it is.

Also I've never at any point been an advocate for herd immunity. Please do not misrepresent me.

brookers · 07-10-2020 01:10PM

caveat emptor wrote: »

More Leo lies.....

https://twitter.com/GabrielScally/status/1313735137599918080?s=20

I did think that myself that it didnt sound right, but because leos performance was so good I doubted myself. I wonder will leo push the button on level 5 around the end of october when schools are on mid term break, thats if level 3 doesnt work. These nursing homes are a worry and of course will push the
numbers up and the icus in hospital. Im off to the school now to collect children where loads of parents and grandparents chat for ages wearing no masks and all on top of each other. Some of the grandparents shout because they dont hear so well and spray everybody.

:)

Thierry12 · 07-10-2020 01:15PM

Cluedo Monopoly wrote: »

I agree. I doubt we will fall below Level 3 until April 2021 at earliest.

No indoor dining for next 6 months

You must be joking?

screamer · 07-10-2020 01:19PM

Thierry12 wrote: »

No indoor dining for next 6 months

You must be joking?

I’d agree, we are headed into flu season when viruses spread easily, that lasts till March.

SleetAndSnow · 07-10-2020 01:20PM

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1313816008814194689?s=20

So there are plans after all. The amount of mis-information from this government is ridiculous. They say one thing and a few hours later they say another

Non solum non ambulabit · 07-10-2020 01:22PM

Thierry12 wrote: »

No indoor dining for next 6 months

You must be joking?

Unfortunately not. Restrictions on indoor dining were very reluctantly removed during the summer when hospitals had huge excess capacity. In the middle of flu season with hospitals full of non covid issues there is no way restrictions will be eased.

Cluedo Monopoly · 07-10-2020 01:22PM

Thierry12 wrote: »

No indoor dining for next 6 months

You must be joking?

No. Possibly some local exceptions but I doubt it.

A winter of discontent and takeaways.

Blondini · 07-10-2020 01:23PM

156 in hospital
25 in ICU

Small increase since yesterday.

Wolf359f · 07-10-2020 01:24PM

caveat emptor wrote: »

More Leo lies.....

https://twitter.com/GabrielScally/status/1313735137599918080?s=20

Since when is Greece considered Western European?

Western Europe 14 day incidence rate:
Czech Republic: 346.1
Netherlands: 270.2
France: 248.7
Belgium: 232.8
United Kingdom: 189.9
Austria: 119
Luxembourg: 156.9
Ireland: 112.8
Liechtenstein: 36.5
Germany: 36.3

Funsterdelux · 07-10-2020 01:24PM

Roger_007 wrote: »

If Sam Becket was still around he could rewrite and retitle his famous play as ‘Waiting for a Vaccine’.

(As we know Godot never appeared).

Or he could leap back in time and prevent the virus jumping to humans in the first place!

07-10-2020 01:25PM

SeaBreezes wrote: »

And did OC43 age Tcells in the same way?
Leave the same organ damage?

.

Have a read
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7252012/

That date isn't the only thing linking OC43 with Russian flu. Many patients of that pandemic had pronounced symptoms affecting their central nervous system. Today, although mostly associated with mild colds, OC43 is also known to infect nervous tissue. It is a suspect in nervous system conditions such as chronic demyelinating disease and multiple sclerosis.

What this virus does is not atypical of other coronavirus strains, just more severe effects are more frequent. We hear a common cold and assume sniffles, but these are more common with Rhinovirus and others. Coronavirues that cause the common cold tend to result in coughs, fevers, bronchitis and in severe cases pneumonia. There is no reason to think these viruses were not just as serious as SARS-CoV-2 when they first emerged in humans.

Roger_007 · 07-10-2020 01:29PM

Cluedo Monopoly wrote: »

No. Possibly some local exceptions but I doubt it.

A winter of discontent and takeaways.

“Now is the winter of our discontent, pizzas, currys and buffalo wings”.

stephenjmcd · 07-10-2020 01:30PM

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1313816008814194689?s=20

So there are plans after all. The amount of mis-information from this government is ridiculous. They say one thing and a few hours later they say another

"In terms of traffic and things like that"

Its so vague its barely worth mentioning.

This morning proved these checkpoints probably won't last long. It was a shambles.

In a family members hosptial, nurses and doctors over an hour late for work because of it. People do need to travel early in the morning for multiple reasons. Big own goal this morning in my opinion. It'll only annoy people more.

https://twitter.com/SeanDefoe/status/1313813067021651968?s=19

pauldry · 07-10-2020 01:32PM

I know Ill be ridiculed for saying this but I honestly think

1. The peak is being reached and by November numbers will be lower not in thousands like NPHET say.

2. Closing pubs and restaurants is a huge factor in supressing this virus. I dont care if no one believes this or says Im boring or what about all the jobs. Its the truth. Pubs were allowed open (even with food) and it is NOT a safe environment AT ALL. I said this to people a few weeks back and they all said "God you are such a killjoy"

I want the virus gone. Opening pubs and restaurants spreads it like wildfire.

Leave all pubs and restaurants closed until there is a vaccine.

Zebra3 · 07-10-2020 01:33PM

Boggles wrote: »

Calm down Leo.

Paddy Power banter writer your day job?

FintanMcluskey · 07-10-2020 01:34PM

Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »

There is zero chance of Tony recommending a Level drop in the middle of winter. It just won't happen.

Level 3 is now as low as we'll go until well into 2021.

Yeah fully agree here.

The hospital's always have and always will at and over capacity during Winter.

There is no "out", officially at least until May/June.

That's applying the previous months logic to the next few months

Azatadine · 07-10-2020 01:36PM

Funsterdelux wrote: »

Or he could leap back in time and prevent the virus jumping to humans in the first place!

Wonder how many get this. Blast from the past!

mr zulu · 07-10-2020 01:37PM

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Yeah fully agree here.

The hospital's always have and always will at and over capacity during Winter.

There is no "out", officially at least until May/June.

That's applying the previous months logic to the next few months

Jesus, one poster says March, another one April now it's gone to May or June, won't be much of a economy left at stage.

is_that_so · 07-10-2020 01:38PM

SeaBreezes wrote: »

I think the opposite. Stamp it out fast over 2-4 weeks then we CAN open up for xmas.

The only countries that have managed it have reacted hard and fast initally, then strict test, trace isolate.

To my mind Its like wildfire, we are trying a controlled slow burn, prob there is, sparks up and we are fire fighting again.

Even where they "stamped it out fast" - NZ & OZ they had to extend the period, by quite a bit is Melbourne's case. The problem is nobody can guess accurately nor give a guaranteed time commitment. Whatever else people criticize Varadkar for, he did ask for guideline metrics.
If it's all down to the public health side decisions we could be at Level 5 until well after Christmas. If, as we have here, it's a government call we may yet end up at Level 5 anyway, but there is more interest in trying to manage our way through it.

bb1234567 · 07-10-2020 01:38PM

Thierry12 wrote: »

No indoor dining for next 6 months

You must be joking?

There's not a chance of indoor dining before early Spring

As somebody who naively thought this would all be mostly over by late summer even I can see that

Covid 19 Part XXV-44,159 ROI (1,830 deaths) 21,898 NI (598 deaths) (13/10) Read OP

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