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Covid 19 Part XXIV-37,063 ROI (1,801 deaths) 12,886 NI (582 deaths) (02/10) Read OP

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Comments

  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 18,098 Mod ✭✭✭✭ixoy


    Level 4 looks inevitable now. This will go on until people are mature enough to act accordingly
    I struggle to see what difference Level 4 will make unless they're of the belief it's spreading in IKEA.
    There's precious little chance people won't meet up at all, which is effectively what it's asking for.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,209 ✭✭✭Neddyusa


    patnor1011 wrote: »
    Take a perfectly healthy person with no particular symptoms and swab the inside of their nose. If the culture shows the presence of staphylococcus aureus, do we insist they have a staph infection? When someone drives to work without incident or accident, do we create statistics about their exposure to traffic?

    A virus is not a disease. Only a very small percentage of those exposed to the virus itself - SARS-CoV-2 - show any kind of acute respiratory symptoms, or what we can call "coronavirus disease."

    The only meaningful statistics show the incidence of serious illness, hospitalizations, and deaths. The single most important statistic among these is the infection fatality rate (IFR). Data collected through July shows that the IFR for those under age forty-five is actually lower than that of the common flu. The covid-19 IFR rises for those over fifty, but it is hardly a death sentence. And the data does not segregate those with preexisting health issues caused by obesity, diabetes, and heart disease. If we could see data only for reasonably healthy people under fifty, the numbers would be even more reassuring.

    Mild or asymptomatic covid cases are effectively meaningless. The world is full of bacteria and viruses, and sometimes they make us a bit sick for a few days. There are millions of them in the world all around us, on our skin, in our nose and respiratory tract, in our organs. We are meant to live with them, which is why we all have immune systems designed to help us coexist and adapt to ever-changing organisms. We develop antibodies naturally, or we attempt to stimulate them through vaccines, but ultimately our own immune systems have to deal with covid-19. The virus will always be out there waiting, on the other side of any lockdown or mask—so we might as well get on with it.

    Excellent post!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,513 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    He loves your post :p


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,599 ✭✭✭timsey tiger


    Neddyusa wrote: »
    Excellent post!
    Can a mod please create a sticky for this?!

    Why do you think it is an excellent post?

    It misses the whole point of why this virus is such a problem, asympthomatic cases are still infectious.

    9 months in and you still don't get this, purpousfuly obtuse maybe?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 92,394 ✭✭✭✭JP Liz V1




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  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 13,896 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    Neddyusa wrote: »
    Excellent post!

    That post is wrong.

    Viruses, in order to reproduce, have to infect and hijack the cellular machinery. They have to infect. A bacterium can simply split in two. At least that is my understanding.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 651 ✭✭✭440Hertz


    To be fair, staphylococcus aureus is endemic, part of our skin flora and has been with us probably for millions of years. Our immune systems are “aware” of it and are normally quite capable of managing it, as is the case with thousands of other bacteria and viruses. It’s only a problem when it gets past the defences.

    The key phrase in reference to coronavirus is NOVEL meaning new. We don’t have hundreds, thousands or millions of years of familiarity with it and in too many cases, our immune systems don’t seem to know what to do with it when it hits, which is why it’s either overwhelming people or they’re going into cascades of immune problems and damage.

    This is why the damn thing is such a problem.

    The virus itself is quite manageable, if you’re a bat that has as much immunity to it as we have to staphylococcus aureus.

    Some of these comparisons being made with the flu and common illnesses are ridiculous.

    We do have to live with it. We will have to adapt and I don’t think we have faced the reality that we need to come up with something better than crude lockdowns but that also means people need to cop the hell on and start using PPE and social distancing. Instead, we get a bunch of conspiracy theorists who are quite honestly not all there in the head, ranting and raving about use of masks, basic PPE and then others who won’t adhere to the most simple guidelines because they don't give a toss.

    If everyone cleaned their hands, wore a mask while mingling and took basic precautions in a consistent and logical way, we wouldn’t have this scale of problem and could manage it better.

    Instead we (and not just Ireland) managed to suppress the virus with social distancing and a fire break basically and then all patted ourselves on the back - job well done! We all deserve a nice rest and “boom” the virus is back and everyone is surprised.

    Humans aren’t quite there yet with the intelligence to deal with something like this. We would rather bury our heads in the sand and blame someone else than actually take some personal responsibility and get on with life with masks and hand sanitiser for a couple of years.

    Yeah it’s annoying. It’s tough. It goes against the grain of what we normally do and how we usually live but life isn’t perfect and being annoyed with the world and selecting facts sourced from dubious online sources to suit your own narrative so you can pretend to be in your happy space isn’t going to fix coronavirus.

    We'll have vaccines in the short to medium term (2 year horizon) in the meantime we have to just muddle through and we are not going to do that by just continuously yo-yoing from peak to valley to peak to valley for the next year or more. This needs consistency and it needs fact based discussions.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,938 ✭✭✭Tenzor07


    Why do you think it is an excellent post?
    It misses the whole point of why this virus is such a problem, asympthomatic cases are still infectious.
    9 months in and you still don't get this, purpousfuly obtuse maybe?

    Because it's true?

    If you have symptoms then get tested... asymptomatic cases aren't as big as contributor to the spread as it was at the start when none of us wore marks or did the whole social distance and sanitizing of hands etc..


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,462 ✭✭✭✭WoollyRedHat


    Analysis of wastewater from a treatment plant in Dublin found evidence of increasing levels of the coronavirus in sewage as cases in the capital surged.

    https://amp.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/rising-levels-of-virus-in-sewage-could-be-early-warning-of-surge-39571218.html?__twitter_impression=true

    Need to get this scaled up so it can.inform response in a more targeted manner.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭Plumbthedepths




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,938 ✭✭✭Tenzor07


    440Hertz wrote: »
    The key phrase in reference to coronavirus is NOVEL meaning new. .

    So as a species, humans have Never come across the Coronavirus previously? That the Coronavirus is a completely new one?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,979 ✭✭✭OscarMIlde


    Tenzor07 wrote: »
    Because it's true?

    If you have symptoms then get tested... asymptomatic cases aren't as big as contributor to the spread as it was at the start when none of us wore marks or did the whole social distance and sanitizing of hands etc..

    Then why do you think the numbers are rising at the moment if asymptomatic people aren't spreading it?
    “Never argue with an idiot. They will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience.”


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 284 ✭✭TexasTornado


    JP Liz V1 wrote: »

    Great to hear that. Hopefully they do all they can to put a halt to these idiots


  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 13,896 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    Tenzor07 wrote: »
    So as a species, humans have Never come across the Coronavirus previously? That the Coronavirus is a completely new one?

    Other coronaviruses, yes, but not this one. It is new.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,979 ✭✭✭OscarMIlde


    Tenzor07 wrote: »
    So as a species, humans have Never come across the Coronavirus previously? That the Coronavirus is a completely new one?

    This particular coronavirus strain is novel to humans, thus we are immunologically naive towards it. In the same way humans have come across Flu before but the 1918 flu was a novel, strain, and thus people lacked immunity towards it.
    “Never argue with an idiot. They will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience.”


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    Some charts. Apologies to those that prefer peanuts. :cool: Hospitalisation.
    Neither good but we can hopefully turn them around.

    528260.png

    Testing

    528261.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 434 ✭✭Derek Zoolander


    Analysis of wastewater from a treatment plant in Dublin found evidence of increasing levels of the coronavirus in sewage as cases in the capital surged.

    https://amp.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/rising-levels-of-virus-in-sewage-could-be-early-warning-of-surge-39571218.html?__twitter_impression=true

    Need to get this scaled up so it can.inform response in a more targeted manner.

    How do you scale it up - ringsend treats 1.9m people - you can test every 15 mins but you’ve no idea where the sh1t is coming from...

    Unless you get more granular data from areas what’s the point -


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,363 ✭✭✭prunudo


    ixoy wrote: »
    I struggle to see what difference Level 4 will make unless they're of the belief it's spreading in IKEA.
    There's precious little chance people won't meet up at all, which is effectively what it's asking for.

    Agreed, what is the point in closing viable but struggling businesses and putting people on unemployment benefits when the schools will continue to remain open. Makes no sense, they can bury their head in the sand as much as they want but schools are playing a contributory factor in the current rise and spread of cases.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,781 ✭✭✭Knine


    Tenzor07 wrote: »
    Stories like yours are what we don't hear enough about in the Irish media, it's all "deadly spiderwebs of infections" "We must destroy this killer virus" all war time language designed to cause fear....

    None of the real people who are struggling to cope with the hysteria of this situation we have put ourselves into..
    If Doctors can work in units with highly infectious patients using the correct PPE and hygiene then the services can be safely provided to your son and others like him...
    The constant yo-yo restrictions have to stop! Level 2, 2.5, level 3 and a half... utter panic!

    My daughter has got her services back & PPE is being worn. Only I can't attend the therapy appointments but they give me regular feedback!

    Hospital & dental appointments have been resuming again too.

    Trying to entertain a child with special needs who was off since Feb was a nightmare though. I dunno how I would cope with another full on lockdown.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 651 ✭✭✭440Hertz


    How do you scale it up - ringsend treats 1.9m people - you can test every 15 mins but you’ve no idea where the sh1t is coming from...

    Unless you get more granular data from areas what’s the point -

    You could quite easily in any city take samples at key sewage junctions. It's generally a fairly logical and straight forward set of plumbing and it's not a web or a mesh architecture. So, you could probably get a fair sample of one area, street our housing estate without much difficulty.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,462 ✭✭✭✭WoollyRedHat


    Sorry scale it up mightn't have been the best phrasing. I meant applying sewage analysis on a more granular basis i.e. nursing homes, universities, etc as alluded to in article.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,938 ✭✭✭Tenzor07


    igCorcaigh wrote: »
    Other coronaviruses, yes, but not this one. It is new.

    So humans have come across Coronaviruses before, ok, would explain that for most people the virus passes with only mild symptoms...


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,762 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    Great to hear that. Hopefully they do all they can to put a halt to these idiots

    They've also looked into every other protest.

    Its literally only the organiser they can go after, someone else will just organise the next one.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,480 ✭✭✭Blondini


    Some charts. Apologies to those that prefer peanuts. :cool: Hospitalisation.
    Neither good but we can hopefully turn them around.

    528260.png

    Testing

    528261.png

    Even though you are right, someone will be along soon to correct you, and tell you to hide under your bed or something...


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,462 ✭✭✭✭WoollyRedHat


    440Hertz wrote: »
    You could quite easily in any city take samples at key sewage junctions. It's generally a fairly logical and straight forward set of plumbing and it's not a web or a mesh architecture. So, you could probably get a fair sample of one area, street our housing estate without much difficulty.

    Presumably that's how they managed to locate sewage with high rates of virus to one specific dorm in.American university and quarantine them?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,938 ✭✭✭Tenzor07


    OscarMIlde wrote: »
    This particular coronavirus strain is novel to humans, thus we are immunologically naive towards it. In the same way humans have come across Flu before but the 1918 flu was a novel, strain, and thus people lacked immunity towards it.

    Ok, you bring up the Spanish flu, which killed millions indiscriminately... Where as this strain of Coronavirus isn't fatal to most apart from the very elderly and/or those with not just one but many underlying conditions, so it could be said to be quite discriminate in who it kills, unlike the 1918 flu.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 651 ✭✭✭440Hertz


    Presumably that's how they managed to locate sewage with high rates of virus to one specific dorm in.American university and quarantine them.

    Possibly, or they're doing serial testing of samples of students.

    Some universities in the UK are doing aggregated/group tests, where they take swabs from multiple random people e.g. say a group of 10 and test them together in one test kit. If that shows up as negative, they're all assumed to be fine. If it turns up as positive, they call the 10 people for individual tests.

    The use of that has reduced the number of test kits needed by a very large factor and you can better target your resources.

    Seems like a very logical way of doing mass testing of asymptotic groups.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 964 ✭✭✭JPCN1



    Seems like a decent man and no surprise to see him forced out of a job.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 434 ✭✭Derek Zoolander


    440Hertz wrote: »
    You could quite easily in any city take samples at key sewage junctions. It's generally a fairly logical and straight forward set of plumbing and it's not a web or a mesh architecture. So, you could probably get a fair sample of one area, street our housing estate without much difficulty.

    That would seem like a smart allocation of resources and would help identify localised outbreaks...

    Let’s hope someone actually does it


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,796 ✭✭✭✭Inquitus


    Some charts. Apologies to those that prefer peanuts. :cool: Hospitalisation.
    Neither good but we can hopefully turn them around.

    Good accurate graphs, this is a good website for all the pertinent numbers, and backs up yours precisely.

    https://covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com/


This discussion has been closed.
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