Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Interested Observer · 28-09-2020 8:58am

shatners bassoon wrote: »

I've been looking for about a year and I've decided to bow out for now. I've bid on three properties in the last few months. One in Marino went sale agreed at 95k over the asking, one in the Liberties and one in Drumcondra went for 50k over.

Sorry to hear that, it's very demoralising. Took me the guts of 18 months from serious starting looking to getting the keys. All I can say is stick with it.

Dave3030 · 28-09-2020 9:05am

Pelezico wrote: »

Houses will be ....snapped up. I love the use of language.

Cant send a link but google Irish Times and carlow. Looks like they werent lying about the queues-madness!

shatners bassoon · 28-09-2020 9:09am

Interested Observer wrote: »

Sorry to hear that, it's very demoralising. Took me the guts of 18 months from serious starting looking to getting the keys. All I can say is stick with it.

Cheers. It's frustrating but I'm happy enough to wait for now. Anything in good condition is being snapped up straight away in my experience.

TheSheriff · 28-09-2020 9:11am

manniot2 wrote: »

surprised by this. the irish indo saying today that there is a mass exodus from Dublin, I would have assumed the market in Dublin was dead atm.

The irish indo saying three couples bought a house in Carlow who where from Dublin, is this the mass exodus or am I missing an article ? (Genuine q)

The_Conductor · 28-09-2020 9:12am

Dave3030 wrote: »

Cant send a link but google Irish Times and carlow. Looks like they werent lying about the queues-madness!

They were obviously priced to meet the market.
If/when prices and people are aligned- then you have a synergy.
Many developers are reading the writing on the wall- and setting their expectations accordingly.
The other aspect is- there are a large cohort of FTBs out there who were waiting to buy- but who are now terrified that if they wait any longer, there may not be mortgages available- and are willing to take the plunge right here, right now. This is a specific cohort though, and once they have been satiated, you're going to have the people who refused to be the first to blink.

Of most interest would be the number of sites opened by developers this year- as-in, new sites, as opposed to continued delivery from pre-existing sites. I suspect it tells a very different story to that being peddled in the media.

hometruths · 28-09-2020 9:23am

TheSheriff wrote: »

The irish indo saying three couples bought a house in Carlow who where from Dublin, is this the mass exodus or am I missing an article ? (Genuine q)

Broadband, home office, garden: House buyers quit cities for home towns as remote working trend continues

manniot2 · 28-09-2020 10:03am

The_Conductor wrote: »

They were obviously priced to meet the market.
If/when prices and people are aligned- then you have a synergy.
Many developers are reading the writing on the wall- and setting their expectations accordingly.
The other aspect is- there are a large cohort of FTBs out there who were waiting to buy- but who are now terrified that if they wait any longer, there may not be mortgages available- and are willing to take the plunge right here, right now. This is a specific cohort though, and once they have been satiated, you're going to have the people who refused to be the first to blink.

Of most interest would be the number of sites opened by developers this year- as-in, new sites, as opposed to continued delivery from pre-existing sites. I suspect it tells a very different story to that being peddled in the media.

just on the issue of people rushing before mortgage approvals go. is this really a reality? When i bought, i had AIP for months but when i actually found a house to buy a full re-evaluation of my finances etc was done by the bank.

Balluba · 28-09-2020 10:05am

Danger781 wrote: »

My cousin went through something similar recently. They were looking at a beautiful house in a fairly rural area that's still only 30 mins from Cork City. Asking was €260k and by the time she bowed out the highest bid was €400k. Now that's obviously the extreme case but it just goes to show that people have money at the moment.

However on the flip side the houses we've had our eyes on over the last few months have all gone for asking +- €15k. The majority have gone for asking price. I guess the houses / areas we're considering aren't high on people's priorities. Just offering my 2c that it's not all doom & gloom, at least outside Dublin anyway.

I consider having to pay up to €15,000 over the asking price of a house during a recession to be definitely doom and gloom. Also the house that sold for €140,000
over the asking must have been grossly undervalued to begin with.

fliball123 · 28-09-2020 10:20am

Pelezico wrote: »

This downturn is beautiful. The last suckers are coming in.

I would love to see that crystal ball your using you keep saying prices have dropped when they have not. They may well do in the future but can you stop using your undying wish for prices to drop as being fact.

KnowingWind · 28-09-2020 11:04am

fliball123 wrote: »

I would love to see that crystal ball your using you keep saying prices have dropped when they have not. They may well do in the future but can you stop using your undying wish for prices to drop as being fact.

Could well be right though.

We are seeing the usual from the media. Stir up panic and state the prices must only go up.
All in the midst of what could be the worst recession since the 1920s.

I question the motivation of a lot of this countries financial experts.

smurgen · 28-09-2020 11:11am

Deutsche bank switching to a permanent wfh plan. That's another 750 people in Dublin that can move anywhere they want.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-25/deutsche-bank-to-let-more-staff-work-from-home-to-cut-offices

fliball123 · 28-09-2020 11:12am

KnowingWind wrote: »

Could well be right though.

We are seeing the usual from the media. Stir up panic and state the prices must only go up.
All in the midst of what could be the worst recession since the 1920s.

I question the motivation of a lot of this countries financial experts.

He/she is 100% not right he/she is suggesting that prices have fallen he/she has been saying this for months now and both the CSO and PPR data have proven he/she wrong over and over and yet they keep saying this and its a lie. Prices may well drop in the future but to date they have not dropped in any significant way. People will put one or two properties up here where prices have dropped and try to use this as proof when some prices are going up and the majority of prices are not going up or down

28-09-2020 11:22am

This is why economics are so difficult to predict. Most people would have thought prices would be dropping. But the opposite seems to be happening.

Will it last, who knows.

Shoden · 28-09-2020 11:29am

[Deleted User] wrote: »

This is why economics are so difficult to predict. Most people would have thought prices would be dropping. But the opposite seems to be happening.

Will it last, who knows.

Irish property YouTube channel "Fleming Real Estate" goes into detail about this in a few videos. They detail that there is always a six month delay in property prices dropping after major economic shocks. That this is a well researched phenomenon.

They go on to opine that there will be a longer delay this time, however, due to a build up of demand during lockdown.

Cyrus · 28-09-2020 11:37am

smurgen wrote: »

Deutsche bank switching to a permanent wfh plan. That's another 750 people in Dublin that can move anywhere they want.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-25/deutsche-bank-to-let-more-staff-work-from-home-to-cut-offices

what they are actually doing is:

Chief executive officer Christian Sewing said the board were working on a “hybrid model” that would allow employees to split their time working between the office and home.

MacronvFrugals · 28-09-2020 12:22pm

Interesting non-paywall piece in the IT today.

State should use Covid-19 impact on building costs to build homes

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/state-should-use-covid-19-impact-on-building-costs-to-build-homes-1.4364743

Marius34 · 28-09-2020 12:58pm

Shoden wrote: »

Irish property YouTube channel "Fleming Real Estate" goes into detail about this in a few videos. They detail that there is always a six month delay in property prices dropping after major economic shocks. That this is a well researched phenomenon.

They go on to opine that there will be a longer delay this time, however, due to a build up of demand during lockdown.

Would like to see these research. It's obvious residential property is not as dynamic, so its moving slower, but you don't need over 6 months to see beginning of the fall, in case of serious crash.
His 5 months old predictions during the lockdown, start(10:00):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w22ouQR6CF4&t=1s

"It's safe to assume that prices already dropped 10%, we likely actually only see true reduction in prices in Q4 of this year."
"Residential values will fall as a whole by 20%, by the end of Q1 2021"

Right, good source for predictions.

PropQueries · 28-09-2020 1:03pm

Marius34 wrote: »

Would like to see these research. It's obvious residential property is not as dynamic, so its moving slower, but you don't need over 6 months to see beginning of the fall, in case of serious crash.
His 5 months old predictions during the lockdown, start(10:00):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w22ouQR6CF4&t=1s

"It's safe to assume that prices already dropped 10%, we likely actually only see true reduction in prices in Q4 of this year."
"Residential values will fall as a whole by 20%, by the end of Q1 2021"

Right, good source for predictions.

He does have a point though. People don't generally wake up one morning and say they will definitely have a house bought by the end of the month and will have moved in within 2 months. It's generally a 6 - 12 month process (probably longer in many cases).

Basically all the data we're seeing today is from people buying who decided to buy at least 6 months ago and many would have decided to buy and would have started the searching pre-covid.

Once people decide to buy, it would take an awful lot to stop them proceeding with a purchase. It's the people starting the search process now that will decide the future direction of the property market.

TheSheriff · 28-09-2020 1:06pm

smurgen wrote: »

Deutsche bank switching to a permanent wfh plan. That's another 750 people in Dublin that can move anywhere they want.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-25/deutsche-bank-to-let-more-staff-work-from-home-to-cut-offices

I wonder when writing this post, did you actually read the article, in which case you know that's not what it says or suggests, or are you just making up click bait like headlines ?

It speaks of a move to a hybrid workforce, which is pretty much a given, and far from guaranteed this will allow people to move anywhere in IE.

I and other colleagues had this set up/option for years, and am still tied to Dublin due to being in the office being required for meetings etc.

hometruths · 28-09-2020 1:25pm

Marius34 wrote: »

Would like to see these research. It's obvious residential property is not as dynamic, so its moving slower, but you don't need over 6 months to see beginning of the fall, in case of serious crash.
His 5 months old predictions during the lockdown, start(10:00):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w22ouQR6CF4&t=1s

"It's safe to assume that prices already dropped 10%, we likely actually only see true reduction in prices in Q4 of this year."
"Residential values will fall as a whole by 20%, by the end of Q1 2021"

Right, good source for predictions.

In fairness, given that we have not yet entered Q4 of this year, nor are we at the end of Q1 2021, surely it is a bit premature to rubbish his predictions?

Marius34 · 28-09-2020 1:39pm

PropQueries wrote: »

He does have a point though. People don't generally wake up one morning and say they will definitely have a house bought by the end of the month and will have moved in within 2 months. It's generally a 6 - 12 month process (probably longer in many cases).

Basically all the data we're seeing today is from people buying who decided to buy at least 6 months ago and many would have decided to buy and would have started the searching pre-covid.

Once people decide to buy, it would take an awful lot to stop them proceeding with a purchase. It's the people starting the search process now that will decide the future direction of the property market.

There is ofcourse a point in that there is delay in property market, I have no doubt with it. But again go back to the post 6 month ago, the prices was falling in 2020 Q1 already. People in beginning of crisis, whic is in March/April, where already looking for large discounts. I said back than that it's good time to negotiate 2-5%, many said you should go 10% right away, as property market is crashing. Half year passed we don't see prices as stable as never.

Even Fleming real estate agent said 5months ago, that prices already dropped 10%. Those are not about future new comers to the market, but active buyers/sellers that can close the sale in 2-3 months or so.

Marius34 · 28-09-2020 1:45pm

schmittel wrote: »

In fairness, given that we have not yet entered Q4 of this year, nor are we at the end of Q1 2021, surely it is a bit premature to rubbish his predictions?

Q4 sales, that's normally for the ones who gets sale agreed in Q2/Q3, which ends in 3 days.
Well that would mean, that the people recently going sale agreed, making typically around 10% lower deals, then the ones from few months ago.
It's abit crazy to believe.

I guess it would be fine to rubbish, if someone predicts 10% property price increase in 2020 Q4?

Shoden · 28-09-2020 1:53pm

Marius34 wrote: »

Would like to see these research. It's obvious residential property is not as dynamic, so its moving slower, but you don't need over 6 months to see beginning of the fall, in case of serious crash.
His 5 months old predictions during the lockdown, start(10:00):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w22ouQR6CF4&t=1s

"It's safe to assume that prices already dropped 10%, we likely actually only see true reduction in prices in Q4 of this year."
"Residential values will fall as a whole by 20%, by the end of Q1 2021"

Right, good source for predictions.

I'd also take a look at this one from three weeks ago: https://youtu.be/cT38uQNQdmM

Where they argue the reason for the delay in drops so far and a more up to date prediction for q4 and 2021.

Besides, the enhanced htb was always going to lead to a short term bump in prices.

thefridge2006 · 28-09-2020 2:19pm

PropQueries wrote: »

He does have a point though. People don't generally wake up one morning and say they will definitely have a house bought by the end of the month and will have moved in within 2 months. It's generally a 6 - 12 month process (probably longer in many cases).

Basically all the data we're seeing today is from people buying who decided to buy at least 6 months ago and many would have decided to buy and would have started the searching pre-covid.

Once people decide to buy, it would take an awful lot to stop them proceeding with a purchase. It's the people starting the search process now that will decide the future direction of the property market.

I think that's a very good point...Imagine telling the missus we're pulling out of buying her "forever home" during the last few stages of completing the deal..

I know a lot of my friends have shelved the idea of buying now but the ones who were already looking late last year have bought or are nearly finished buying now

manniot2 · 28-09-2020 3:04pm

i think there is probably alot of people around who are saving more than usual these days. Even the couple of years people usually spend saving for weddings is probably gone as many wont bother in the current environment.Add to that, emigration is not an option for the forseeable - many may be tempted to buy next year.

PropQueries · 28-09-2020 3:18pm

manniot2 wrote: »

i think there is probably alot of people around who are saving more than usual these days. Even the couple of years people usually spend saving for weddings is probably gone as many wont bother in the current environment.Add to that, emigration is not an option for the forseeable - many may be tempted to buy next year.

If there's little chance of emigration in the foreseeable future, it also works in reverse so there's also little chance of immigration in the foreseeable future and it's continued mass immigration that is behind a lot of the projections for housing demand in Ireland.

"In the year to April 2019, 29,000 Irish nationals emigrated... but the number of non-Irish nationals moving to Ireland exceeded the number leaving by 35,800 during the year"

That's not good for housing demand in the 'foreseeable future'.

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/abroad/more-irish-emigrants-leaving-the-country-than-returning-again-1.3998770

cubatahavana · 28-09-2020 3:46pm

PropQueries wrote: »

If there's little chance of emigration in the foreseeable future, it also works in reverse so there's also little chance of immigration in the foreseeable future and it's continued mass immigration that is behind a lot of the projections for housing demand in Ireland.

"In the year to April 2019, 29,000 Irish nationals emigrated... but the number of non-Irish nationals moving to Ireland exceeded the number leaving by 35,800 during the year"

That's not good for housing demand in the 'foreseeable future'.

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/abroad/more-irish-emigrants-leaving-the-country-than-returning-again-1.3998770

How long does it take on average for an immigrant to buy a house? Most of that will affect rental market. For myself it took 4 years to buy, but I had a very good job. Many immigrants have usually been considered low skill workforce when they arrive into Ireland

PropQueries · 28-09-2020 3:53pm

cubatahavana wrote: »

How long does it take on average for an immigrant to buy a house? Most of that will affect rental market. For myself it took 4 years to buy, but I had a very good job. Many immigrants have usually been considered low skill workforce when they arrive into Ireland

True but that will free up the houses they would have being renting for sale to potential buyers and result in an increasing supply of homes entering the sales market over the next 6-12 months and a subsequent impact on home prices, especially within the cities where most of them would have lived.

brisan · 28-09-2020 4:30pm

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/mortgage-breaks-will-not-be-extended-beyond-this-week-1.4366576

thefridge2006 · 28-09-2020 8:04pm

brisan wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/mortgage-breaks-will-not-be-extended-beyond-this-week-1.4366576

What happens now???

Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

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