Marius34 wrote: » There is ofcourse a point in that there is delay in property market, I have no doubt with it. But again go back to the post 6 month ago, the prices was falling in 2020 Q1 already. People in beginning of crisis, whic is in March/April, where already looking for large discounts. I said back than that it's good time to negotiate 2-5%, many said you should go 10% right away, as property market is crashing. Half year passed we don't see prices as stable as never. Even Fleming real estate agent said 5months ago, that prices already dropped 10%. Those are not about future new comers to the market, but active buyers/sellers that can close the sale in 2-3 months or so.
thefridge2006 wrote: » What happens now???
brisan wrote: » https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/mortgage-breaks-will-not-be-extended-beyond-this-week-1.4366576
cubatahavana wrote: » How long does it take on average for an immigrant to buy a house? Most of that will affect rental market. For myself it took 4 years to buy, but I had a very good job. Many immigrants have usually been considered low skill workforce when they arrive into Ireland
PropQueries wrote: » If there's little chance of emigration in the foreseeable future, it also works in reverse so there's also little chance of immigration in the foreseeable future and it's continued mass immigration that is behind a lot of the projections for housing demand in Ireland. "In the year to April 2019, 29,000 Irish nationals emigrated... but the number of non-Irish nationals moving to Ireland exceeded the number leaving by 35,800 during the year" That's not good for housing demand in the 'foreseeable future'. Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/abroad/more-irish-emigrants-leaving-the-country-than-returning-again-1.3998770
manniot2 wrote: » i think there is probably alot of people around who are saving more than usual these days. Even the couple of years people usually spend saving for weddings is probably gone as many wont bother in the current environment.Add to that, emigration is not an option for the forseeable - many may be tempted to buy next year.
PropQueries wrote: » He does have a point though. People don't generally wake up one morning and say they will definitely have a house bought by the end of the month and will have moved in within 2 months. It's generally a 6 - 12 month process (probably longer in many cases). Basically all the data we're seeing today is from people buying who decided to buy at least 6 months ago and many would have decided to buy and would have started the searching pre-covid. Once people decide to buy, it would take an awful lot to stop them proceeding with a purchase. It's the people starting the search process now that will decide the future direction of the property market.
Marius34 wrote: » Would like to see these research. It's obvious residential property is not as dynamic, so its moving slower, but you don't need over 6 months to see beginning of the fall, in case of serious crash. His 5 months old predictions during the lockdown, start(10:00):https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w22ouQR6CF4&t=1s "It's safe to assume that prices already dropped 10%, we likely actually only see true reduction in prices in Q4 of this year." "Residential values will fall as a whole by 20%, by the end of Q1 2021" Right, good source for predictions.
schmittel wrote: » In fairness, given that we have not yet entered Q4 of this year, nor are we at the end of Q1 2021, surely it is a bit premature to rubbish his predictions?
Marius34 wrote: » Would like to see these research. It's obvious residential property is not as dynamic, so its moving slower, but you don't need over 6 months to see beginning of the fall, in case of serious crash. His 5 months old predictions during the lockdown, start(10:00):https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w22ouQR6CF4&t=1s"It's safe to assume that prices already dropped 10%, we likely actually only see true reduction in prices in Q4 of this year." "Residential values will fall as a whole by 20%, by the end of Q1 2021" Right, good source for predictions.
smurgen wrote: » Deutsche bank switching to a permanent wfh plan. That's another 750 people in Dublin that can move anywhere they want.https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-25/deutsche-bank-to-let-more-staff-work-from-home-to-cut-offices
Shoden wrote: » Irish property YouTube channel "Fleming Real Estate" goes into detail about this in a few videos. They detail that there is always a six month delay in property prices dropping after major economic shocks. That this is a well researched phenomenon. They go on to opine that there will be a longer delay this time, however, due to a build up of demand during lockdown.
[Deleted User] wrote: » This is why economics are so difficult to predict. Most people would have thought prices would be dropping. But the opposite seems to be happening. Will it last, who knows.
KnowingWind wrote: » Could well be right though. We are seeing the usual from the media. Stir up panic and state the prices must only go up. All in the midst of what could be the worst recession since the 1920s. I question the motivation of a lot of this countries financial experts.
fliball123 wrote: » I would love to see that crystal ball your using you keep saying prices have dropped when they have not. They may well do in the future but can you stop using your undying wish for prices to drop as being fact.
Pelezico wrote: » This downturn is beautiful. The last suckers are coming in.
Danger781 wrote: » My cousin went through something similar recently. They were looking at a beautiful house in a fairly rural area that's still only 30 mins from Cork City. Asking was €260k and by the time she bowed out the highest bid was €400k. Now that's obviously the extreme case but it just goes to show that people have money at the moment. However on the flip side the houses we've had our eyes on over the last few months have all gone for asking +- €15k. The majority have gone for asking price. I guess the houses / areas we're considering aren't high on people's priorities. Just offering my 2c that it's not all doom & gloom, at least outside Dublin anyway.
The_Conductor wrote: » They were obviously priced to meet the market. If/when prices and people are aligned- then you have a synergy. Many developers are reading the writing on the wall- and setting their expectations accordingly. The other aspect is- there are a large cohort of FTBs out there who were waiting to buy- but who are now terrified that if they wait any longer, there may not be mortgages available- and are willing to take the plunge right here, right now. This is a specific cohort though, and once they have been satiated, you're going to have the people who refused to be the first to blink. Of most interest would be the number of sites opened by developers this year- as-in, new sites, as opposed to continued delivery from pre-existing sites. I suspect it tells a very different story to that being peddled in the media.
TheSheriff wrote: » The irish indo saying three couples bought a house in Carlow who where from Dublin, is this the mass exodus or am I missing an article ? (Genuine q)
Dave3030 wrote: » Cant send a link but google Irish Times and carlow. Looks like they werent lying about the queues-madness!
manniot2 wrote: » surprised by this. the irish indo saying today that there is a mass exodus from Dublin, I would have assumed the market in Dublin was dead atm.
Interested Observer wrote: » Sorry to hear that, it's very demoralising. Took me the guts of 18 months from serious starting looking to getting the keys. All I can say is stick with it.
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