Covid 19 Part XXIV-37,063 ROI (1,801 deaths) 12,886 NI (582 deaths) (02/10) Read OP

Sweet.Science · 25-09-2020 02:28PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

"A significant increase in younger people hospitalised"

A quick look at the latest HPSC report from Tuesday 15th to Tuesday 22nd

Additional cases hospitalised in 1 week
0-4 yrs - 0 cases
5-14 yrs- 1 case
15-24 - 4 cases
25 - 34 - 2 cases
35 - 44 - 9 cases
45 - 54 - 12 cases
55 - 64 - 16 cases
65 - 74 - 16 cases
75 - 84 - 13 cases
85 + - 8 cases

I dont see a significant increase in younger people there. The numbers are all available on HPSC website

Are these people in hospital due to Covid ? Or are they in hospital and have contracted Covid ?

JP Liz V1 · 25-09-2020 02:30PM

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

We flattened the curve by pretty much putting the entire country on lockdown. Closing all but essential business,, restricting people to 2kms of there home. You wsnto do that again. How much damage to society and the economy are you comfortable with for a virus that not dangerous for the majority who contract it?

Not dangerous, how many deaths now in Ireland

Benimar · 25-09-2020 02:31PM

426 positive swabs on 14,429 tests - positivity rate of 2.95%

JDD · 25-09-2020 02:32PM

hetuzozaho wrote: »

Just in my experience I was speaking about. It kept many different circles of my friends away from the pubs. And the ones that did go along with the meal and pint had totally different nights out to what they would have. It was restrictive and annoying within my groups anyway. People I haven't seen in months cause of the 'nonsense 9eur meal'. And the same people planning nights out as soon as it would be lifted ha. YMMV etc.

I agree with this. We were going to organise a local work night out since we hadn't seen each for so long. It would have been a meal and pint job, rather than the usual meet at 7pm after having had your dinner and have a feed of pints until we were thrown out at whatever hour. Now that we can't go to the pub no-one is volunteering their house instead. And if the night out had happened in August we would have all gone home after the two hours, rather than rocking up at one of our houses.

Close friends I can see the "lets meet at the house instead of a pub" happening, or with people with no kids. But the older you get the more separate circles of friends you have, and you might only might meet occasionally instead of every Friday night. All those nights out have simply been postponed.

is_that_so · 25-09-2020 02:32PM

Benimar wrote: »

426 positive swabs on 14,429 tests - positivity rate of 2.95%

So probably 400+ cases today?

Boggles · 25-09-2020 02:33PM

Benimar wrote: »

426 positive swabs on 14,429 tests - positivity rate of 2.95%

That's a lot of whoring in Donegal!

JP Liz V1 · 25-09-2020 02:33PM

Benimar wrote: »

426 positive swabs on 14,429 tests - positivity rate of 2.95%

400+ cases today so?

Plumbthedepths · 25-09-2020 02:35PM

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

Not dangerous, how many deaths now in Ireland

Yes there is and the virus is responsible for a small amount of the 10's of thousands we have this year. Your reply still does not change the fact the virus is not dangerous to the majority who contract it. Flattening the curve again as you seem to think we can would come at an enormous cost and many would have no interest in engaging again. Even many in the vulnerable groups would have no interest in being isolated again for several months. I asked what level of damage are you comfortable with to both society and the economy, would you care to answer?

MerlinSouthDub · 25-09-2020 02:35PM

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

400+ cases today so?

Highly likely. Could be 500 if they clear the backlog.

Polar101 · 25-09-2020 02:35PM

caveat emptor wrote: »

This is big news. China workers infected from frozen seafood.
More info needed but stands to reason.

I'm not saying it's not possible at all, but it's not the first time China reports cases from imported food (I think they blamed the Beijing outbreak on Norwegian salmon before). If frozen food packaging was a source of infections, wouldn't we see a lot more outbreaks in supermarkets, for example?

mountgomery burns · 25-09-2020 02:35PM

Happydays2020 wrote: »

Intrigue in respect to the goings on in Donegal

https://twitter.com/kilclooneyjohn/status/1309371885503877121?s=21

"Rumour has it..." And "face facts" in the same tweet.

All that clarified for me is that you don't need to pass an exam to become a Lord.

Akabusi · 25-09-2020 02:35PM

Someone put up a clip of Luke O Neil on the Late Late the other day. I know how wrong he has been on so many things but one thing he said about the virus entering the body through the eyes stuck in my head. I had not heard that before and haven't noticed any discussion on it either. Is it more spoof from him or isd there something to it?

Hrududu · 25-09-2020 02:36PM

Who’s been maintaining the list of people we’ve been blaming? Add the foreign prostitutes of Donegal to it please.

It’s probably something like

Bats
People eating bats
Italian rugby fans
People in that pub in temple bar
Cheltenham (the people that went, not the horses)
Foreign strawberry pickers
Black Lives Matter marchers
American tourists
Berlin pub and all that sailed in her
Greta (always nice to try to slag her about something)
Those people that had the air bnb down south and then one tested positive
Anti mask marchers
The golf lads
Meat plants
The other golf lads
The Oliver Bond ravers
Foreign prostitutes

JJayoo · 25-09-2020 02:37PM

I think cases have been held back and today/tomorrow we will see very high figures in the hope that people won't go crazy over the weekend.

When the cops have to remove 118 people from a single houseparty in sligo you just have to accept that a certain age group don't give a toss

Benimar · 25-09-2020 02:37PM

is_that_so wrote: »

So probably 400+ cases today?

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

400+ cases today so?

Honestly, it could be anything!

Positive outlook - the last 2 days cases have been lower than swabs by 20-25% so case numbers could be as low as 300.

Neutral outlook - We will get close to the positive swabs so cases will be 400

Negative outlook - there is a backlog out there from the last 2 days and it could be big. Cases would be 500+

Take your pick!

Ger Roe · 25-09-2020 02:38PM

Akabusi wrote: »

Someone put up a clip of Luke O Neil on the Late Late the other day. I know how wrong he has been on so many things but one thing he said about the virus entering the body through the eyes stuck in my head. I had not heard that before and haven't noticed any discussion on it either. Is it more spoof from him or isd there something to it?

Yes it can. If you touch your eyes with infected hands or if you face in to an infected cough or sneeze.

Boggles · 25-09-2020 02:39PM

Benimar wrote: »

Honestly, it could be anything!

Positive outlook - the last 2 days cases have been lower than swabs by 20-25% so case numbers could be as low as 300.

Neutral outlook - We will get close to the positive swabs so cases will be 400

Negative outlook - there is a backlog out there from the last 2 days and it could be big. Cases would be 500+

Take your pick!

How many swabs in backlog do you know?

stephenjmcd · 25-09-2020 02:41PM

Wolf359f wrote: »

Guess it depends on your definition of young!
Also what were the figures the week before that?
If 15-25 went from 1-3, that would be a significant increase. If it went from 3-3, obviously that's not an increase.
Just showing one week figures won't show a trend.

Well I'm assuming the radio report was referring to week on week so that's what I went with.

Easy found to go back another week as well

hetuzozaho · 25-09-2020 02:42PM

JDD wrote: »

I agree with this. We were going to organise a local work night out since we hadn't seen each for so long. It would have been a meal and pint job, rather than the usual meet at 7pm after having had your dinner and have a feed of pints until we were thrown out at whatever hour. Now that we can't go to the pub no-one is volunteering their house instead. And if the night out had happened in August we would have all gone home after the two hours, rather than rocking up at one of our houses.

Close friends I can see the "lets meet at the house instead of a pub" happening, or with people with no kids. But the older you get the more separate circles of friends you have, and you might only might meet occasionally instead of every Friday night. All those nights out have simply been postponed.

I've so many examples of the effect it had with my social circles. I'm shocked people think it didn't.

I've been blown away by how aghast people are with a bowl of chicken wings

People I know who would religiously be down the local twice a week haven't drank at all since March!

paw patrol · 25-09-2020 02:43PM

Hrududu wrote: »

Who’s been maintaining the list of people we’ve been blaming? Add the foreign prostitutes of Donegal to it please.

It’s probably something like

Bats
People eating bats
Italian rugby fans
People in that pub in temple bar
Cheltenham (the people that went, not the horses)
Foreign strawberry pickers
Black Lives Matter marchers
American tourists
Berlin pub and all that sailed in her
Greta (always nice to try to slag her about something)
Those people that had the air bnb down south and then one tested positive
Anti mask marchers
The golf lads
Meat plants
The other golf lads
The Oliver Bond ravers
Foreign prostitutes

you forgot the holy communion kids.....

froog · 25-09-2020 02:43PM

Hrududu wrote: »

Who’s been maintaining the list of people we’ve been blaming? Add the foreign prostitutes of Donegal to it please.

It’s probably something like

Bats
People eating bats
Italian rugby fans
People in that pub in temple bar
Cheltenham (the people that went, not the horses)
Foreign strawberry pickers
Black Lives Matter marchers
American tourists
Berlin pub and all that sailed in her
Greta (always nice to try to slag her about something)
Those people that had the air bnb down south and then one tested positive
Anti mask marchers
The golf lads
Meat plants
The other golf lads
The Oliver Bond ravers
Foreign prostitutes

Junky U2 fans.

JP Liz V1 · 25-09-2020 02:44PM

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Yes there is and the virus is responsible for a small amount of the 10's of thousands we have this year. Your reply still does not change the fact the virus is not dangerous to the majority who contract it. Flattening the curve again as you seem to think we can would come at an enormous cost and many would have no interest in engaging again. Even many in the vulnerable groups would have no interest in being isolated again for several months. I asked what level of damage are you comfortable with to both society and the economy, would you care to answer?

If everyone took personal responsibility, stopped parties, raves and large gatherings, businesses wouldn't need to suffer

Wolf359f · 25-09-2020 02:45PM

JJayoo wrote: »

I think cases have been held back and today/tomorrow we will see very high figures in the hope that people won't go crazy over the weekend.

When the cops have to remove 118 people from a single houseparty in sligo you just have to accept that a certain age group don't give a toss

How can the cops enter a private residence?
Just wondering on what grounds. We've heard before the police are powerless with house parties.

Plumbthedepths · 25-09-2020 02:46PM

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

If everyone took personal responsibility, stopped parties, raves and large gatherings, businesses wouldn't need to suffer

So that's a non answer. I'll leave it there then

is_that_so · 25-09-2020 02:46PM

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

If everyone took personal responsibility, stopped parties, raves and large gatherings, businesses wouldn't need to suffer

It's always been about most people, everyone is impossible to achieve.

Benimar · 25-09-2020 02:47PM

Boggles wrote: »

How many swabs in backlog do you know?

Its 154 from the last two days. Its 238 dating back to Sept 10th, but I don't believe its that high (retests of workers showing as a positive swab, but obviously not a new case).

I'd be surprised if there wasn't at least 100 cases out of the 238 to be added.

Plumbthedepths · 25-09-2020 02:48PM

Wolf359f wrote: »

How can the cops enter a private residence?
Just wondering on what grounds. We've heard before the police are powerless with house parties.

On foot of a warrant or in the belief a crime is being committed.
House parties while not desirable are not criminal, morally a different matter.

Wolf359f · 25-09-2020 02:48PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Well I'm assuming the radio report was referring to week on week so that's what I went with.

Easy found to go back another week as well

Well if you're going to make a point that there was no significant new hospitalisations in the young, you could have easily went back a week and shown that in the numbers.
If it's a radio report, it could have increased by 1% and they'll call it significant. If it reduced by 50% they would call it a slight reduction.

eagle eye · 25-09-2020 02:51PM

It's like my opinion of the intelligence of Irish people gets lower by the day.

Can people not understand that this is a young virus and we don't know enough about it yet? We've already seen its vicious with the elderly, that there's long term affects hitting a small percentage of people of all ages regardless of their health status prior to getting this thing.
We don't know if there is any lingering long term affects for the majority of people yet because it's not old enough. We don't even have a test which is certain to tell you if you have it or not. There can be false positives and false negatives.
We've got hundreds of thousands of trained professionals in epidemiology and virology researching this. The general consensus among them is to wear facemasks properly, wash your hands regularly and maintain social distance.
How many stupid people are there out there that can't abide by a bit of good advice that is being published and spoken about everywhere?

JDD · 25-09-2020 02:51PM

Benimar wrote: »

426 positive swabs on 14,429 tests - positivity rate of 2.95%

That's a bit of an oul jump in the positivity rate. The Covid app is showing 2.4% for yesterday.

When does the sh*t actually hit the fan? If we consider about 20% of positives are asymptomatic, and about 10% of the remainder are hospitalised, when do we hit capacity?

If we take today as a snapshot, those 426 people testing positive today have probably infected 680 additional people already - with an R rate of approx 1.5 or 1.6. Same with the positives from yesterday and the last couple of days, stretching back over the last 4/5 days - i.e. someone got a positive test on Monday but track and trace won't have tested their close contacts and got the results back yet.

So the 1000ish positives from the last few days have probably infected about 1500 more, as of today. Take 20% off for asymptomatic, and 90% off the remainder for having a case that doesn't need hospitalisation. Now we're left with what - 200 that are going to need hospitalisation over the next two or three weeks? If we stay at this rate can the hospitals cope with 200 additional admissions a week? What's the average stay - three weeks?

I'm beginning to feel that we don't have a lot of wiggle room, hospital wise here.

Covid 19 Part XXIV-37,063 ROI (1,801 deaths) 12,886 NI (582 deaths) (02/10) Read OP

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