Relaxation of Restrictions, Part V - Read OP for Mod Warnings

Ginger n Lemon · 25-09-2020 09:30AM

Assetbacked wrote: »

https://www.thecurrency.news/articles/24384/colm-barrington-lockdown-doesnt-work-theres-a-smarter-safer-cheaper-way-to-manage-covid

I think there's a free trial available as it is a paid article but good to see a national platform been given for a prominent voice in an economic sector ravaged by the OTT covid response (travel).

Here's the intro paragraphs as I can't copy the whole thing;

It is pathetic. and it hasnt worked. But the public are being blamed for it now, not the incompetent politicians / unknown "experts" from NPHET.

GocRh · 25-09-2020 09:30AM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

They're asking people to limit movement between Derry and Donegal, both areas have very high rates at the moment.

Its the exact same as everyone being asked to limit movement in and out of Dublin.

There is already a policy in place - the living with covid roadmap. Level 3 already recommends no travel outside of the county.

What is being discussed is a NEW policy specific for the border.

kippy · 25-09-2020 09:30AM

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

That is not science. That is guess work.

Or its false science.

As, correct me if I am wrong, we went into lockdown in middle of March and our cases and deaths went up - WAY UP ? So science didnt work then?

No, it's the science (simplified granted):
https://www.cdc.gov/disasters/disease/respiratoryic.html#:~:text=Many%20of%20the%20germs%20that,contact%20with%20a%20sick%20person.

Deaths going up does not mean that science didn't work in that instance.
It's a pity these things have to be pointed out - but it looks like they do.

average_runner · 25-09-2020 09:31AM

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

no no no no, YOU need someone to help you. Everyone I know gets on with their life and knows the 0.3% risks etc.

Restrictions are a hindrance, something for politicians to talk on TV about while masking our 1 in 6 unemployment rate or the large cuts coming in the budget.

Yes we can get on with our life if you follow the guidelines like other countries do.

If we followed the guidelines we wouldn't need a lockdown now, its that simple. We could open up more

kippy · 25-09-2020 09:33AM

ixoy wrote: »

It's "where possible" that can be a bit tricky, at least socially. Does that mean meeting nobody? Does it mean just meeting immediate family? Friends but rarely? Once a week?
That's the tricky bit, especially as many people do need to socialise in some form in person. Don't know what the balance is - t's easier for me with a small family and no desire to meet many people often but I recognise for others, with say larger families or more friends that it's more difficult.

Look,
We all know the "where possible" is the tricky bit. Which is why there are other restrictions and guidelines in place to reduce the risk, but essentially all steming from the basic premis to avoide close contacts.

I agree, there are certain sections of society where this is extremely difficult, mentally and otherwise.

Assetbacked · 25-09-2020 09:34AM

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

It is pathetic. and it hasnt worked. But the public are being blamed for it now, not the incompetent politicians / unknown "experts" from NPHET.

Those supporting the response have memories like goldfish and are as easily lead as sheep. It's too early in the morning to go through the exhausting list of hypocrisy, inconsistency and illogic nature of the decisions so I'll just use two;

1/ Flip-flopping on nursing homes and not mandating proper health protocols for these staff lead to the bulk of our deaths coming in these settings. A monumental fcuk up.

2/ Travel - back in March, Harris ruling out closing the borders as we are an EU country so it wouldn't work. Subsequently, introducing restrictions on all but essential travel, then when the curve went completely flat, they did not follow the EU green list, instead going with the most bizarre list of countries which included Monaco and Greenland but not even NZ. Then they have strongly argued in court the last 2 weeks that this wasn't even a legal restriction on not travelling, just an advisory. A complete mess.

stephenjmcd · 25-09-2020 09:34AM

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Lol @ OP. Its gonna be 24 - 36 months minimum. Even if vaccine is developed next year, it needs 9 - 12 months to be mass produced.

Ireland is not exactly top of the queue for these.

Naivety in abundance :rolleyes:

Ireland will get any vaccine at the same time as the rest of Europe. The EU are the ones doing the negotiations and orders for the bloc, Ireland gets its share from this.

Also production is well underway of potential vaccines

Stormyteacup · 25-09-2020 09:36AM

average_runner wrote: »

Lockdowns achieve what they set out to achieve, ie force people to behave and the cases will drop.

The problem with lockdowns, once lifted, people don't behave and cause the lockdowns to come back.

So we are a circle at the moment. The penny will drop some stage or maybe not

So i agree we need to move away from lockdowns and get on with things, but people need to do the basic things to stop the spread. It isn't that hard when you see other countries doing it and no need for lockdowns.

Or perhaps the penny will drop that ‘forcing people to behave’ doesn’t work in a productive functioning society.

Lockdowns don’t work - is it because people aren’t behaving or because it’s a poor strategy in curbing the spread of this virus?

Does it matter at this stage? They don’t work.

There are ways to encourage compliance in taking basic precautions. Positive reinforcement and transparent communication of data collected to date would be a start. It’s basic behavioural science.

RTE still telling us 20% of positive cases will need to be hospitalised....christ.

The government could quite easily tone down the hysteria and change the narrative..

And doing the ‘basic things’ will not ‘stop the spread’. How does anyone still believe that is possible at this stage?

stephenjmcd · 25-09-2020 09:36AM

GocRh wrote: »

There is already a policy in place - the living with covid roadmap. Level 3 already recommends no travel outside of the county.

What is being discussed is a NEW policy specific for the border.

No it isn't whats being discussed. Read the article. They're trying to suggest how people in both border areas can reduce travel between both areas. NI don't have a stay in your area policy in place for Derry for example, its in our roadmap but not in theirs.

Likewise people could go over the border for social activities etc.

Its reported as discussions on how to reduce travel between Donegal and NI. In particular the Derry area where rates are very high. People from these areas should only travel into Donegal for essential reasons. The executive in NI need their own framework on this.

We have one they don't. That's what this is

Ginger n Lemon · 25-09-2020 09:37AM

kippy wrote: »

No, it's the science (simplified granted):
https://www.cdc.gov/disasters/disease/respiratoryic.html#:~:text=Many%20of%20the%20germs%20that,contact%20with%20a%20sick%20person.

Deaths going up does not mean that science didn't work in that instance.
It's a pity these things have to be pointed out - but it looks like they do.

Simplified granted? are you really unable to link a scientific peer reviewed published paper about effectiveness of countrywide lockdowns??

Something that had a good sample size of population, and proved lockdowns are effective?

So many posters this morning "Simple stuff" and yet have 0 to back it up.

storker · 25-09-2020 09:39AM

average_runner wrote: »

Yes we can get on with our life if you follow the guidelines like other countries do.

If we followed the guidelines we wouldn't need a lockdown now, its that simple. We could open up more

Exactly. The problem is the large number of Irish people who on encountering a rule (or the first time their plans crash into one) is to work out why it doesn't apply to them or decide it doesn't matter if it's "just them" who break it. We saw it before the first lockdown. People advised to keep their distance instead packed into the pubs and partied like it was 1999.

average_runner · 25-09-2020 09:40AM

Stormyteacup wrote: »

Or perhaps the penny will drop that ‘forcing people to behave’ doesn’t work in a productive functioning society.

Lockdowns don’t work - is it because people aren’t behaving or because it’s a poor strategy in curbing the spread of this virus?

Does it matter at this stage? They don’t work.

There are ways to encourage compliance in taking basic precautions. Positive reinforcement and transparent communication of data collected to date would be a start. It’s basic behavioural science.

RTE still telling us 20% of positive cases will need to be hospitalised....christ.

The government could quite easily tone down the hysteria and change the narrative..

And doing the ‘basic things’ will not ‘stop the spread’. How does anyone still believe that is possible at this stage?

Sadly some people will never listen, so no matter what way we get the message across it won't work.

The message is pretty transparent at this stage, even my 7 year old knows what it is.

Kids at sport training session even knows what it is, its the parents that don't see to know or care.

road_high · 25-09-2020 09:41AM

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Lol @ OP. Its gonna be 24 - 36 months minimum. Even if vaccine is developed next year, it needs 9 - 12 months to be mass produced.

Ireland is not exactly top of the queue for these.

Naivety in abundance :rolleyes:

I’m not sure whether it’s naivety or wishful thinking or both? Maybe it’s a coping mechanism to help them get through it which I can appreciate

Captain_Crash · 25-09-2020 09:42AM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Also production is well underway of potential vaccines

How can production of something that’s not yet been developed be underway?

road_high · 25-09-2020 09:44AM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Ireland will get any vaccine at the same time as the rest of Europe. The EU are the ones doing the negotiations and orders for the bloc, Ireland gets its share from this.

Also production is well underway of potential vaccines

Is production well under way? I didn’t know this can you link it?
Last I heard the trials hadn’t finished yet so it wouldn’t be registered- before production would begin it would have to be registered

average_runner · 25-09-2020 09:44AM

storker wrote: »

Exactly. The problem is the large number of Irish people who on encountering a rule (or the first time their plans crash into one) is to work out why it doesn't apply to them or decide it doesn't matter if it's "just them" who break it. We saw it before the first lockdown. People advised to keep their distance instead packed into the pubs and partied like it was 1999.

You mean the typical Irish attitude to everything. Joe gives out about people not paying tax, then when looking for a job to be done in the house, he asks will you accept cash

.

We really do screw ourselves big time.

stephenjmcd · 25-09-2020 09:45AM

Captain_Crash wrote: »

How can production of something that’s not yet been developed be underway?

What are you talking about?

Vaccines that are in phase 3 are already being produced and multiple developers such as Oxford Vaccine, J&J & Pfizer have all scaled up production to have doses ready to go when approved.

There's a whole thread on vaccine development and production.

Its not as if they wait for approval before producing it

kippy · 25-09-2020 09:49AM

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Simplified granted? are you really unable to link a scientific peer reviewed published paper about effectiveness of countrywide lockdowns??

Something that had a good sample size of population, and proved lockdowns are effective?

So many posters this morning "Simple stuff" and yet have 0 to back it up.

The science is based around the spread of the virus.
The restrictions are flowing from what. And each restriction has a specific purposes towards stopping the spread of the virus.

No exactly rocket science.

It's as simple as it gets.

stephenjmcd · 25-09-2020 09:50AM

road_high wrote: »

Is production well under way? I didn’t know this can you link it?
Last I heard the trials hadn’t finished yet so it wouldn’t be registered- before production would begin it would have to be registered

As per my previous post there's a full thread on this with multiple sources. I suggest reading through some of the vaccine thread where you'll get lots of information on production, some very fascinating stuff with some extremely well informed posters.

Production starts before trials have finished so that there are doses ready when approval is given.

For example 4 months ago the Oxford vaccine went into production
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sciencefocus.com/news/coronavirus-manufacturing-begins-on-millions-of-doses-of-the-oxford-vaccine-candidate/amp/

Pfizer "We have activated our supply chain, most importantly our site in Belgium, and are starting to manufacture so that our vaccine would be available as soon as possible, if our clinical trials prove successful and regulatory approval is granted.”

https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-potentially-supply-eu-200-million-doses

Plumbthedepths · 25-09-2020 09:51AM

average_runner wrote: »

You mean the typical Irish attitude to everything. Joe gives out about people not paying tax, then when looking for a job to be done in the house, he asks will you accept cash .

We really do screw ourselves big time.

Have you plans to emigrate when the pandemic is under control? Your constant berating of your fellow countrymen is getting tiresome now.
There is no country in the world where the populace as a whole is fully behind the restrictions imposed. Fines wouldn't feature so frequently as part of restrictions if there were.

wellwhynot · 25-09-2020 09:52AM

We had the longest lockdown in Europe with the most foreign travel restrictions. Other countries in Europe with the exception of the UK’s pub curfew are fully open. Why do we have more cases than most? Lockdowns don’t work. They delay the inevitable. This virus is low risk to most. We should open everything up and instead of spending billions testing people with a snotty nose and paying healthy people to sit at home, we should divert that money to protecting the most vulnerable in society and ensuring that our elderly are not dying from loneliness while they cocoon.

Stormyteacup · 25-09-2020 09:53AM

average_runner wrote: »

Sadly some people will never listen, so no matter what way we get the message across it won't work.

The message is pretty transparent at this stage, even my 7 year old knows what it is.

Kids at sport training session even knows what it is, its the parents that don't see to know or care.

Yes correct - that’s part of living in a diverse society. A proportion will break the law, a proportion will bend it and some will follow it to the letter. No point expecting any different.

But if a government persist in supplying misinformation, controlling a bias narrative and generally spreading division, they can expect some backlash at the least.

It’s been abysmally mismanaged. I’m not enamoured with the idea of large gatherings taking place, young or old but it’s been pretty shocking how we’ve vilified certain sections of society.

polesheep · 25-09-2020 10:06AM

average_runner wrote: »

You mean the typical Irish attitude to everything. Joe gives out about people not paying tax, then when looking for a job to be done in the house, he asks will you accept cash .

We really do screw ourselves big time.

This self-deprecation has to stop. Take an objective look at what is going on in the world; there's no master race out there doing everything perfectly. I have lived in a number of countries and, as the saying goes, people are the same wherever you go.

topper75 · 25-09-2020 10:12AM

kippy wrote: »

The science is based around the spread of the virus.
The restrictions are flowing from what. And each restriction has a specific purposes towards stopping the spread of the virus.

No exactly rocket science.

It's as simple as it gets.

Not only is eradication not simple.
It is not even possible.

There will be no eradication and no vaccine. Run and hide is not a strategy. We need young people to become a buffer. Government restrictions are delaying this process.

Skyfloater · 25-09-2020 10:13AM

About the 20% of cases need to be hospitalized claim by RTE, have any studies come up with any different figures. 20% seems very high. And yes I am aware of the difficulties posed by asymptomatic cases.

mohawk · 25-09-2020 10:14AM

average_runner wrote: »

Lockdowns achieve what they set out to achieve, ie force people to behave and the cases will drop.

The problem with lockdowns, once lifted, people don't behave and cause the lockdowns to come back.

So we are a circle at the moment. The penny will drop some stage or maybe not

So i agree we need to move away from lockdowns and get on with things, but people need to do the basic things to stop the spread. It isn't that hard when you see other countries doing it and no need for lockdowns.

I agree with most of what you say. However, even if people behave perfectly once a lockdown is lifted there will be an increase in cases. Once people start going back to work and school they are starting to mix again. There appears to be a very large cohort of people who are asymptomatic (exact percentage varies on the study). People have to buy food, go to GP, call the plumber to fix a leak etc. There are plenty of very valid reasons why people will either leave the house or invite someone into their house.

mohawk · 25-09-2020 10:17AM

Skyfloater wrote: »

About the 20% of cases need to be hospitalized claim by RTE, have any studies come up with any different figures. 20% seems very high. And yes I am aware of the difficulties posed by asymptomatic cases.

Is that 20% arising from start of pandemic when only people with certain symptoms were being tested?? Looking at the total numbers that have tested positive versus hospital admissions in Ireland I can’t see how it’s 20%.

25-09-2020 10:19AM

Skyfloater wrote: »

About the 20% of cases need to be hospitalized claim by RTE, have any studies come up with any different figures. 20% seems very high. And yes I am aware of the difficulties posed by asymptomatic cases.

I'm trying to find it now but a HSE document I looked at yesterday said 3%

Stormyteacup · 25-09-2020 10:20AM

Skyfloater wrote: »

About the 20% of cases need to be hospitalized claim by RTE, have any studies come up with any different figures. 20% seems very high. And yes I am aware of the difficulties posed by asymptomatic cases.

Total to date is about 10.55 percent.

Most recent 14 day average report shows 3.2 percent hospitalitised.

On 2nd September 14 day average was 3.1 percent.

Stats available on HSPC website.

Assetbacked · 25-09-2020 10:26AM

mohawk wrote: »

Is that 20% arising from start of pandemic when only people with certain symptoms were being tested?? Looking at the total numbers that have tested positive versus hospital admissions in Ireland I can’t see how it’s 20%.

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/casesinireland/epidemiologyofcovid-19inireland/COVID-19_Daily_epidemiology_report_(NPHET)_20200924%20-%20Website.pdf

In a very elderly age group (75-84) it is 20% and then drops to 13% over the age of 85. As a whole it is way off as it is 10%, but at the younger age groups (ie under 65), it is 6%. Obviously these are conservative estimates as not everyone who has had covid was tested and recorded as positive for these stats. I mean, there is potential to reduce these percentages by ten times what they are, based on some reports.

This is the misinformation I expect from RTE and its inability to report on the data though.

Relaxation of Restrictions, Part V - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

Comments

Relaxation of Restrictions, Part V - Read OP for Mod Warnings