Covid 19 Part XXIII-33,444 in ROI(1,792 deaths) 9,541 in NI(577 deaths)(22/09)Read OP

GooglePlus · 22-09-2020 02:17PM

is_that_so wrote: »

Sure, it's a case of a mindset that is now different. Less panic about seemingly large numbers. 1000 cases a day will deliver a lot more ICU patients even if it's at a slower rate.

1000 a day with our current testing might only equates to what was reported as 300 a day earlier in the year (pulled that out of my arse but the point is there).

People need to be made aware of this to reduce the panic when we do hit 1000 case numbers.

Oranage2 · 22-09-2020 02:18PM

Happydays2020 wrote: »

Where are these community transmissions taking place?

Was it mistake to move immediately to 100% attendance in schools rather than blending?

Are schools a greater risk than retail?

Are schools a greater risk than socially distanced and well ventilated hospitality establishments?

Is it correct to have a religious position that no matter what schools will stay open?

It's crazy how much the government backed themselves into a corner with their promise to keep the schools open no matter what, it looks like it will be impossible with the exponential increase in positive cases. The worrying thing is that there will be no planning for when it does happen.

BrianD3 · 22-09-2020 02:20PM

Only 16 confirmed Covid cases in ICUs but also only 38 free ICU beds for the entire country :rolleyes: One serious road accident (e.g. a bus crash) could use up most of that. Obviously, so could a mere 2-3 Covid admissions per day for a couple of weeks.

Again, chickens are coming home to roost. Shambolic health system due to decades of mismanagement. Covid arrives. "Lockdown" for several months, hospitals postpone/cancel work, many people are afraid to attend anyway. Repeat of what happened in Lombardy's hospitals averted. However, most of those who die don't even get admitted into ICU. Colm Henry puts positive spin on this by talking about how our ICU death rate is lower than other countries.

Virus not eliminated, restrictions relaxed and now a backlog of non Covid health issues to be dealt with while Covid cases rise.

One tiny positive here is at least now we're (apparently) being given definite figures for our ICU capacity . A few months ago various different figures were being bandied about - even in the same press conference :rolleyes:

is_that_so · 22-09-2020 02:22PM

BrianD3 wrote: »

Only 16 confirmed Covid cases in ICUs but also only 38 free ICU beds for the entire country :rolleyes: One serious road accident (e.g. a bus crash) could use up most of that. Obviously, so could a mere 2-3 Covid admissions per day for a couple of weeks. Again, chickens are coming home to roost. Shambolic health system due to decades of mismanagement. Covid arrives. "Lockdown" for several months, hospitals postpone/cancel work, many people are afraid to attend anyway. Repeat of what happened in Lombardy's hospitals averted. However, most of those who die don't even get admitted into ICU. Colm Henry puts positive spin on this by talking about how our ICU death rate is lower than other countries.

Virus not eliminated, restrictions relaxed and now a backlog of non Covid health issues to be dealt with while Covid cases rise.

One tiny positive here is at least now we're (apparently) being given definite figures for our ICU capacity . A few months ago various different figures were being bandied about - even in the same press conference :rolleyes:

Colm Henry says it's currently 278 ICU beds up from about 220 in February.

mirrorwall14 · 22-09-2020 02:22PM

Oranage2 wrote: »

It's crazy how much the government backed themselves into a corner with their promise to keep the schools open no matter what, it looks like it will be impossible with the exponential increase in positive cases. The worrying thing is that there will be no planning for when it does happen.

I’m listening to the radio saying that community transmission is a threat to schools, schools aren’t a threat to the community and my brain is going.... But if you don’t know where the cases are coming from then how can you say this?

Widdensushi · 22-09-2020 02:22PM

iguana wrote: »

How many were in the ICU on March 12th when schools closed? You don't need to have huge amounts of people in an ICU right now in order to understand what is most likely to happen. The realities of exponential growth mean it can go from seeming like a gradual increase in numbers to suddenly being overwhelmed. Why do you think Whitty and Valance have made clear their concern about what they expect to happen in the UK by November if very drastic action isn't taken?

The first lockdown was a reaction to the terrible situation in Italy. People have learned alot since then, about social distancing, wearing masks, the doctors have improved the treatment of the virus. It's a totally different situation.

seamusk84 · 22-09-2020 02:24PM

mirrorwall14 wrote: »

I’m listening to the radio saying that community transmission is a threat to schools, schools aren’t a threat to the community and my brain is going.... But if you don’t know where the cases are coming from then how can you say this?

Heard that too...How does that make sense?

Are we just not allowed to say that schools "may" present an issue.

eagle eye · 22-09-2020 02:26PM

Widdensushi wrote:

The first lockdown was a reaction to the terrible situation in Italy. People have learned alot since then, about social distancing, wearing masks, the doctors have improved the treatment of the virus. It's a totally different situation.

Our numbers now don't agree with your thoughts.

OwenM · 22-09-2020 02:27PM

iguana wrote: »

How many were in the ICU on March 12th when schools closed? You don't need to have huge amounts of people in an ICU right now in order to understand what is most likely to happen. The realities of exponential growth mean it can go from seeming like a gradual increase in numbers to suddenly being overwhelmed. Why do you think Whitty and Valance have made clear their concern about what they expect to happen in the UK by November if very drastic action isn't taken?

Would you mind showing me any actual evidence of exponential growth trend in cases, beyond three data points?

Widdensushi · 22-09-2020 02:28PM

mirrorwall14 wrote: »

I’m listening to the radio saying that community transmission is a threat to schools, schools aren’t a threat to the community and my brain is going.... But if you don’t know where the cases are coming from then how can you say this?

The only European country that at the moment seems to be doing well with covid at the moment is Sweden, they never closed the schools so I think it is logical to adopt some of their approach.

eagle eye · 22-09-2020 02:31PM

Widdensushi wrote:

The only European country that at the moment seems to be doing well with covid at the moment is Sweden, they never closed the schools so I think it is logical to adopt some of their approach.

Where are you getting the numbers for Sweden?

TonyMaloney · 22-09-2020 02:31PM

OwenM wrote: »

Would you mind showing me any actual evidence of exponential growth trend in cases, beyond three data points?

I guess this is anecdotal

Nolan

“We believe the reproduction number is somewhere 1.3 and 1.7 in the country as a whole, so this disease is spreading rapidly,” he said. “If we look at the growth rate, it is growing by between 5 and 7 per cent per day. That means the disease is doubling every 10-14 days at this point.

“If the reproduction rate continues at 1.4, by October 14th we would be looking at 500-600 cases per day. All of us need to change our behaviour. If the reproduction rate is higher at 1.8, we would be looking at close to 1,200 cases per day by October 14th.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/coronavirus-more-concern-now-than-any-time-since-april-health-officials-warn-1.4356459

Plumbthedepths · 22-09-2020 02:33PM

screamer wrote: »

We threw everything we had at this virus last spring/ summer. We’ve little left now, and it’s now that the surge is going to come. A tough lockdown may be needed, but we cannot afford it, we couldn’t afford it back in spring either tbh. So, stock up your PPE, sanitizer etc.

Don't forget lots and lots of toilet roll.

is_that_so · 22-09-2020 02:33PM

Widdensushi wrote: »

The only European country that at the moment seems to be doing well with covid at the moment is Sweden, they never closed the schools so I think it is logical to adopt some of their approach.

We'd need to build a lot of accommodation to have 40% living alone and import a whole lot of Swedes to change our mentality. Strategies worldwide have been applied to suit local sensibilities and while there are a lot of similarities, what they did in Say Korea of r NZ may not work elsewhere.

DangerScouse · 22-09-2020 02:33PM

Oranage2 wrote: »

It's crazy how much the government backed themselves into a corner with their promise to keep the schools open no matter what, it looks like it will be impossible with the exponential increase in positive cases. The worrying thing is that there will be no planning for when it does happen.

The crazy thing is there are still some out there that don't see schools as a problem. The numbers literally sky rocketed after schools reopened.

22-09-2020 02:34PM

eagle eye wrote: »

Our numbers now don't agree with your thoughts.

In the first 6 weeks of the pandemic we had 8900 cases and 320 deaths, in the last 6 weeks we had 6353 cases and 30 deaths. The numbers very much agree with the users thoughts

DangerScouse · 22-09-2020 02:35PM

Widdensushi wrote: »

The only European country that at the moment seems to be doing well with covid at the moment is Sweden, they never closed the schools so I think it is logical to adopt some of their approach.

Ireland is nothing like Sweden in terms of how we live.

MerlinSouthDub · 22-09-2020 02:35PM

is_that_so wrote: »

We'd need to build a lot of accommodation to have 40% living alone and import a whole lot of Swedes to change our mentality. Strategies worldwide have been applied to suit local sensibilities and while there are a lot of similarities, what they did in Say Korea of r NZ may not work elsewhere.

20% of people in Sweden live alone, not 40%.

Are people living alone more or less likely to go out and meet other people socially, would you think?

Goldengirl · 22-09-2020 02:36PM

caveat emptor wrote: »

UK all over the shop regards getting back to the office.

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1308310998294704130?s=20

https://twitter.com/conormlally/status/1259623003702407168?s=20

Excellent!:D

Widdensushi · 22-09-2020 02:37PM

eagle eye wrote: »

Where are you getting the numbers for Sweden?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/sweden

If you are planning on saying they are not testing the deaths have trickled out also

eagle eye · 22-09-2020 02:37PM

Deleted User wrote:

In the first 6 weeks of the pandemic we had 8900 cases and 320 deaths, in the last 6 weeks we had 6353 cases and 30 deaths. The numbers very much agree with the users thoughts

The numbers are growing all the time, so no they don't agree with his thoughts.
Obviously the deaths are lower because we are protecting the more vulnerable but the numbers are going up and up. We are heading for 3k cases per day by early November if we don't do something.

OwenM · 22-09-2020 02:37PM

TonyMaloney wrote: »

I guess this is anecdotal

Nolan

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/coronavirus-more-concern-now-than-any-time-since-april-health-officials-warn-1.4356459

Not quite an anecdote, but when a scientist says 'We believe' I'm not reassured. Calculating a R number has a method surely?

eagle eye · 22-09-2020 02:39PM

Widdensushi wrote:

If you are planning on saying they are not testing the deaths have trickled out also

They are not reporting their numbers very well. All I can find is that they had 1675 cases between the 11th and 17th September. That's the newest data I can find anywhere and it's not good either.

OwenM · 22-09-2020 02:40PM

DangerScouse wrote: »

The crazy thing is there are still some out there that don't see schools as a problem. The numbers literally sky rocketed after schools reopened.

The schools re-opened in every county but the numbers didn't sky rocket in every county, a correlation would be expected

CalamariFritti · 22-09-2020 02:41PM

DangerScouse wrote: »

The crazy thing is there are still some out there that don't see schools as a problem. The numbers literally sky rocketed after schools reopened.

Actually they skyrocketed since we mandated masks :pac:

is_that_so · 22-09-2020 02:41PM

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

20% of people in Sweden live alone, not 40%.

Are people living alone more or less likely to go out and meet other people socially, would you think?

It's 40% of households , nearly 2m people!

https://www.tellerreport.com/news/2019-09-11---swedes-prefer-to-live-alone-because-of-the-high-cost-of-housing-and-their-sanctification-of-independence-.rkAregP8B.html

I think it depends on the individual but they are likely to be alone in the high risk location of households.

CalamariFritti · 22-09-2020 02:42PM

So we're looking for excuses now why Sweden was outlier and couldn't possibly work elsewhere.

caveat emptor · 22-09-2020 02:43PM

https://twitter.com/zorinaq/status/1306481284189794304?s=20

is_that_so · 22-09-2020 02:43PM

OwenM wrote: »

Not quite an anecdote, but when a scientist says 'We believe' I'm not reassured. Calculating a R number has a method surely?

He regularly lists 4 methods. R0 at low numbers of cases is very hard to guess at. Even in March they believed with 95% confidence.

eagle eye · 22-09-2020 02:43PM

CalamariFritti wrote:

So we're looking for excuses now why Sweden was outlier and couldn't possibly work elsewhere.

How is Sweden an outlier with 1675 cases in a week?

Covid 19 Part XXIII-33,444 in ROI(1,792 deaths) 9,541 in NI(577 deaths)(22/09)Read OP

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