Relaxation of Restrictions, Part V - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

Deaths.. We're over 6 months into this and still less than 2000 - which is great considering the predictions at the start!

The reality is that this virus is nowhere near as deadly as was feared and given we know now more about who actually IS at risk and the vast majority that aren't, a combination of personal responsibility and common sense will hopefully see us through without seeing that feared surge in deaths.

But I still fail to see why people like yourself are so against this position. Some here almost WANT it to be worse it seems.

i'll be watching closely the news coming from France, where they have got now double the cases and 1/20 of actual deaths. I know someone shortly will instruct me that France is not Ireland, that they drink wine and not Guinness, and that Irish are halfwits that need to be led by their hands by a paternalistic government and the French don't, and for all those reasons the French lesson will never be useful here. Our healthcare system is so bad and all that malarkey. It will be an interesting exercise nevertheless.

BTW, I'm sick hearing of all these idiotic excuses why Irish as a nation cannot considered on equal terms with the Germans and the likes, and that we need a different approach to pretty much everything that we do. If we think we are lesser then the them all, we surely always be just that. Terrible mindset for a nation with such a huge potential. We will only get what we think we deserve, not more. end of the rant.

Grant Billions Bifocals wrote: »

These sort of “claims” are made every so often but the fact is the current death rate is far higher than flu and covid is a vastly worse virus than the flu. Currently the irish death rate is over 5%.

Maybe you forget the scenes in Italy or the healthy young people unable to breath or the ongoing highlighting of people with ongoing issues even though they fully recovered.

The only people comparing to flu are people playing it down and denying covid is a threat, people who belong in the conspiracy theories forum and have no time for science or health experts.

5%? How did you come up with that number? Take me through your thought process please. It will be fascinating.

walus wrote: »

5%? How did you come up with that number? Take me through your thought process please. It will be fascinating.

Yes I’d like to see that evidence referenced too please. 5% is a figure I need to see verified

Grant Billions Bifocals wrote: »

I’d have thought you were capable of the very simple maths required to calculate what percentage one number is of another when given two numbers. The total cases and total deaths which both are readily available online.

My oh my, and you do R&D for a living? My oh my. I knew it would be fascinating.

Grant Billions Bifocals wrote: »

Considering maths is a key part if my job I’d say they very much are one of my strong points

And yet your claiming a death rate of 5%, so in and around 250000 deaths.

Asked this yesterday but no bite. How many in Icu on a typical September day in this country with respiratory illness? (Pre Covid)

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

Deaths.. We're over 6 months into this and still less than 2000 - which is great considering the predictions at the start!

The reality is that this virus is nowhere near as deadly as was feared and given we know now more about who actually IS at risk and the vast majority that aren't, a combination of personal responsibility and common sense will hopefully see us through without seeing that feared surge in deaths.

But I still fail to see why people like yourself are so against this position. Some here almost WANT it to be worse it seems.

I've been thinking about this over the past couple of weeks and I just can't understand why this hasn't been portrayed as a good news story by either the government or the NPHET. It just doesn't add up for me at all. Either we are missing something or we are not being told the full story here.

Is it just a simple case that the government and HSE haven't fulfilled their end of the bargain laid out in March, whereby they would increase bed capacity and implement proper testing and tracing mechanisms. Or, is it something else that we haven't been told about this virus that makes them so scared. Because for me our current strategy makes no sense in light of the numbers this past 2 months. The deaths are not rising with the expected lag from case numbers that was seen in nearly every country in March/April.

It would be good to get some clarity on this matter, particularly as they are asking people to forgo so much in terms of job losses and general restrictions in everyday life.

Grant Billions Bifocals wrote: »

I’d have thought you were capable of the very simple maths required to calculate what percentage one number is of another when given two numbers. The total cases and total deaths which both are readily available online.

Can you reference these please and outline how you arrived at the 5% death figure as requested as asked three times now? Ta
I don’t have the time to google them but you seem adamant so you won’t have a problem referencing the 5%

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

Deaths.. We're over 6 months into this and still less than 2000 - which is great considering the predictions at the start!

The reality is that this virus is nowhere near as deadly as was feared and given we know now more about who actually IS at risk and the vast majority that aren't, a combination of personal responsibility and common sense will hopefully see us through without seeing that feared surge in deaths.

But I still fail to see why people like yourself are so against this position. Some here almost WANT it to be worse it seems.

You just keep posting the same incorrect stuff again and again and again. I have shown you facts and evidence and you just continue on the same flawed line of reasoning so I guess it’s a dead end for you. The pandemic will continue and restrictions will continue and you’ll still be tearing your hair out unable to fathom what’s actually going on. I’d imagine it’s very frustrating. You also persist with saying anyone who doesn’t agree with you wants the situation to get worse or is somehow in favour of more restrictions which is just plain ignorance. Maybe it makes it easier for people to just blame NPHET and the government for everything because the reality is too complicated or scary to comprehend?

manniot2 wrote: »

Asked this yesterday but no bite. How many in Icu on a typical September day in this country with respiratory illness? (Pre Covid)

Might be in here if you want to go digging? I’ll have a look tomorrow when I have time.

https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/publications/performancereports/july-to-september-quarterly-report.pdf

Grant Billions Bifocals wrote: »

Considering maths is a key part if my job I’d say they very much are one of my strong points



I am the lead R&D engineer for my dept in fact so I definitely do it for a living

You show me how you are calculating Ireland death rate as being lower?

nox, the 1800 death number is dubious. It keeps getting altered downwards too. We know that if granny contracts Covid and dies, it’s registered as a Covid death. Regardless of what really killed her.

The positive case number of 32000 is probably even more dubious at this point. Using a test not designed for the problem. Not being 100% sure a positive result is genuinely a positive case.

And then you have the people who genuinely have had Covid but either didn’t get tested or else did get tested but their result erroneously came back negative. Do you think that hasn’t happened?

So your numerator should be lower and you can bet your R&D job that the denominator is greater than 32000!

Grant Billions Bifocals wrote: »

What are you on about, that is the very definition of a death rate the number of deaths as a percentage of the number of cases. You really haven’t a clue what you are taking about.



Ireland has has 33,121 cases and 1,792 deaths. 1,792/33,121 x 100 = 5.4%. Figure readily available on the gov website.

Ireland has 33,121 positive tests, the reality is we have no idea how many cases we've actually had, it's also been confirmed by big Leo that we may have overstated the death rate, so we actually have no idea what the death rate is. But yeah, keep saying it....