Covid 19 Part XXIII-33,444 in ROI(1,792 deaths) 9,541 in NI(577 deaths)(22/09)Read OP

ongarite · 21-09-2020 07:34PM

Louth and Kildare not looking too good either in last 2 weeks.
Largest commuter towns outside Dublin with significant schools populations.

https://twitter.com/higginsdavidw/status/1308110717653057537

normanoffside · 21-09-2020 07:38PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

The Irish seroprevelance study is the biggest load of tripe I've ever seen, to be honest.

I saw the UK guys on about it earlier and were saying Serology tests show 8% infection of the population and that antibody presence wains after 3 months (incidentally that's why the Irish tests surely showed such low numbers).

They were taking it as meaning that disappearance of antibodies meant that immunity had disappeared.

Again completely ignoring the T-Cell immunity. It's like they all are wilfully closing their eyes and ears to that.

ElTel · 21-09-2020 07:39PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Few notes on this:
- "roughly 30 per cent of the blood donors who’d given blood in May 2020 had COVID-19-specific T cells, a figure that’s much higher than previous antibody tests have shown."
- "The T-cell response was consistent with measurements taken after vaccination with approved vaccines for other viruses. Patients with severe COVID-19 often developed a strong T-cell response and an antibody response; in those with milder symptoms it was not always possible to detect an antibody response, but despite this many still showed a marked T-cell response."
- “Our results indicate that public immunity to COVID-19 is probably significantly higher than antibody tests have suggested,” says Professor Hans-Gustaf Ljunggren at the Center for Infectious Medicine, Karolinska Institutet, and co-senior author. “If this is the case, it is of course very good news from a public health perspective.” T-cell analyses are more complicated to perform than antibody tests and at present are therefore only done in specialised laboratories, such as that at the Center for Infectious Medicine at Karolinska Institutet."

Link to the paper: https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(20)31008-4

Would stored blood from last summer {say) show any T cell response?

worlds goodest teecher · 21-09-2020 07:39PM

So when get to Level 42 does that "It's Over" for all of us? 😉

ACitizenErased · 21-09-2020 07:39PM

normanoffside wrote: »

I saw the UK guys on about it earlier and were saying Serology tests show 8% infection of the population and that antibody presence wains after 3 months (incidentally that's why the Irish tests surely showed such low numbers).

They were taking it as meaning that disappearance of antibodies meant that immunity had disappeared.

Again completely ignoring the T-Cell immunity. It's like they all are wilfully closing their eyes and ears to that.

Unfortunately we'll likely never find out true seroprevelance in Ireland because of this ignorance. The media haven't a clue to ask questions either.

21-09-2020 07:39PM

road_high wrote: »

Nah mentally spot on thanks- I don’t need some cornflake box psycho analyst to tell me that.
You’re typical of the Covid hysterical
Ilk- you’ll (Try) shut down anyone you disagree with by labelling them as mentally ill- it’s about as low as a person can get and a favoured tactic of dictators and fascists for generations to silence opposition.

You might want to invest in a dictionary.

ACitizenErased · 21-09-2020 07:40PM

ElTel wrote: »

Would stored blood from last summer {say) show any T cell response?

I've no idea personally, I presume it should? Unless the cells have died off

petes · 21-09-2020 07:41PM

road_high wrote: »

Nah mentally spot on thanks- I don’t need some cornflake box psycho analyst to tell me that.
You’re typical of the Covid hysterical
Ilk- you’ll (Try) shut down anyone you disagree with by labelling them as mentally ill- it’s about as low as a person can get and a favoured tactic of dictators and fascists for generations to silence opposition.

Strange that, wasn't shutting you down. I agree with some of your points and I agree with some of the other posters just like I disagree with some of the posts.

The only thing is you can't post anything without insulting the other posters or going completely off the deep end with expletive laden posts which suggest they are posted in extreme anger.

I also didn't label you as mentally ill, that's something you've obviously thought about yourself.

Should probably take a break from the internet for a while!

21-09-2020 07:41PM

normanoffside wrote: »

Prof Nolan was banging on today that Serology tests show that they only caught 1 in 3 infections during the early phase of the virus and is basing all his maths and fatality rates off that, when it is clearly at least 1 in 20 or 30.

T-Cell immunity has been known about and talked about for a long time but our Scientists in NPHET just ignore it.

Prof Nolan’s projected ifr’s by age are consistent with an overall ifr of c0.65% which would be consistent with us having had 275,000 cases. The incredibly poorly designed study by the HSE into serology prevalence here indicated 1 in 3, but it was essentially a self selected study when only a fraction of those randomly selected showed up. It also didn’t seem to include confirmed positives which was bizarre. Study should have included 0.5% confirmed positive patients as that was the rate in the population at the time and would have risen the result by the same. Prof Nolan could not directly challenge the study, but his ifr data indicates he doesn’t pay much heed to it

caveat emptor · 21-09-2020 07:43PM

growleaves wrote: »

It isn't normative for coronaviruses anyway.

....

What can you say about posters who use the word 'novel' as a wildcard to push unlikely scenarios but have little or no evidence to base them on? I think some of them are paid to post here.

Please don't tell lies in support of your opinion. Coronavirus' don't confer longterm immunity. Why would this one be different? If we can get infected on a biannual basis this will be never ending. People need to start confronting reality.

Herd immunity didn’t develop to cholera, yellow fever, smallpox, measles, TB, malaria, or plague -> public health measures were used to control them until vaccines or elimination strategies were developed.

I remember people back in Feb saying nothing to worry about it's only an outbreak in China.
I remember people saying masks don't work.
I remember people saying it wasn't airborne.
I remember people saying there wouldn't be another wave.

All examples of wishful thinking.

Some people just don't get stuff. Then they get angry and take it out on anyone that'll listen. Sometimes it ends with hitting someone over the head with a two by four wrapped in a flag. Doesn't change the situation one iota though.

https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1305605844013203456?s=20

ACitizenErased · 21-09-2020 07:44PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Prof Nolan’s projected ifr’s by age are consistent with an overall ifr of c0.65% which would be consistent with us having had 275,000 cases. The incredibly poorly designed study by the HSE into serology prevalence here indicated 1 in 3, but it was essentially a self selected study when only a fraction of those randomly selected showed up. It also didn’t seem to include confirmed positives which was bizarre. Study should have included 0.5% confirmed positive patients as that was the rate in the population at the time and would have risen the result by the same. Prof Nolan could not directly challenge the study, but his ifr data indicates he doesn’t pay much heed to it

275000 seems close enough, to be fair. That means we missed 7 out of every 8 cases.

21-09-2020 07:45PM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Please don't tell lies in support of your opinion. Coronavirus' don't confer longterm immunity. Why would this one be different? If we can get infected on a biannual basis this will be never ending. People need to start confronting reality.

I remember people back in Feb saying nothing to worry about it's only an outbreak in China.
I remember people saying masks don't work.
I remember people saying it wasn't airborne.
I remember people saying there wouldn't be another wave.

All examples of wishful thinking.

Some people just don't get stuff. Then they get angry and take it out on anyone that'll listen. Sometimes it ends with hitting someone over the head with a two by four wrapped in a flag. Doesn't change the situation one iota though.

https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1305605844013203456?s=20

Every coronavirus we have likely started as a novel virus, and one likely caused the Russian flu pandemic and is still with us as part of the common cold suite of viruses

ACitizenErased · 21-09-2020 07:46PM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Please don't tell lies in support of your opinion. Coronavirus' don't confer longterm immunity. Why would this one be different? If we can get infected on a biannual basis this will be never ending. People need to start confronting reality.

I remember people back in Feb saying nothing to worry about it's only an outbreak in China.
I remember people saying masks don't work.
I remember people saying it wasn't airborne.
I remember people saying there wouldn't be another wave.

All examples of wishful thinking.

Some people just don't get stuff. Then they get angry and take it out on anyone that'll listen. Sometimes it ends with hitting someone over the head with a two by four wrapped in a flag. Doesn't change the situation one iota though.

https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1305605844013203456?s=20

https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(20)31008-4

RebelButtMunch · 21-09-2020 07:47PM

worlds goodest teecher wrote: »

So when get to Level 42 does that "It's Over" for all of us? ðŸ˜‰

I smell a rat... in the kitchen

normanoffside · 21-09-2020 07:47PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Prof Nolan’s projected ifr’s by age are consistent with an overall ifr of c0.65% which would be consistent with us having had 275,000 cases. The incredibly poorly designed study by the HSE into serology prevalence here indicated 1 in 3, but it was essentially a self selected study when only a fraction of those randomly selected didn’t show up. It also didn’t seem to include confirmed positives which was bizarre. Study should have included 0.5% confirmed positive patients as that was the rate in the population at the time and would have risen the result by the same. Prof Nolan could not directly challenge the study, but his ifr data indicates he doesn’t pay much heed to it

IFR is just not accurate when a significant proportion just don’t get infected in the first place due to T-Cell immunity.

I myself am almost certain I Was infected Back in March (didn’t get tested as it got cancelled). I was also Potentially very exposed to the virus due to my job
I said at the time the only reason I showed any symptoms at all was due to being very run down and stressed at the time.
I very rarely get colds and have never had a flu and the only times I have ever felt unwell was when I was very run down.

I always figured there is something more to it than just antibodies, lots of people are exposed to many viruses and still don’t pick them up.

ElTel · 21-09-2020 07:49PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I've no idea personally, I presume it should? Unless the cells have died off

Yeah I'd think so too. I don't know how "different" they'd be to this covid19 specific T cell but distinguishing them is fascinating.

froog · 21-09-2020 07:54PM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Please don't tell lies in support of your opinion. Coronavirus' don't confer longterm immunity. Why would this one be different? If we can get infected on a biannual basis this will be never ending. People need to start confronting reality.

I remember people back in Feb saying nothing to worry about it's only an outbreak in China.
I remember people saying masks don't work.
I remember people saying it wasn't airborne.
I remember people saying there wouldn't be another wave.

All examples of wishful thinking.

Some people just don't get stuff. Then they get angry and take it out on anyone that'll listen. Sometimes it ends with hitting someone over the head with a two by four wrapped in a flag. Doesn't change the situation one iota though.

https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1305605844013203456?s=20

well immunity doesn't mean you won't get reinfected. just that you can produce antibodies fast the second or third time around and have little or no symptoms. for all intents and purposes you are "immune" after the first exposure. that's my understanding of it anyway. i could be wrong.

DevilsHaircut · 21-09-2020 07:54PM

From the researcher who discovered T-cell (bro) cross-reactivity.

https://twitter.com/profshanecrotty/status/1293346418158051330

What Username Guidelines · 21-09-2020 08:01PM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Please don't tell lies in support of your opinion. Coronavirus' don't confer longterm immunity. Why would this one be different? If we can get infected on a biannual basis this will be never ending. People need to start confronting reality.

I remember people back in Feb saying nothing to worry about it's only an outbreak in China.
I remember people saying masks don't work.
I remember people saying it wasn't airborne.
I remember people saying there wouldn't be another wave.

All examples of wishful thinking.

Some people just don't get stuff. Then they get angry and take it out on anyone that'll listen. Sometimes it ends with hitting someone over the head with a two by four wrapped in a flag. Doesn't change the situation one iota though.

https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1305605844013203456?s=20

Careful now, anyone who posted anything bad back in feb and March were told they were doom mongers and only posting so they could come back later and say “I told you so”. Often found that funny, it was like a safety net for those that wanted to deny any negative news. Funnily enough, the sugar coaters were in fact behaving in the exact same way by even using that phrase. “I told you you’d be back to say I told you so”.

I wouldn’t consider myself on either end of the denial - overanxious spectrum, I’ve been up and down the spectrum over the last 6 months, but it’s a shame there’s not much healthy debate, just name calling and getting digs in so the same cliques can get pats on the back.

ACitizenErased · 21-09-2020 08:05PM

Love how the reinfection crowd have blatantly ignored the paper I posted from one of the world's best medical journals debunking the theory

growleaves · 21-09-2020 08:06PM

A few months ago posters were warning about a possible repeat of the second wave of the Spanish flu,which killed somewhere between 50 to 100 million people.

Now its like "I told you there'd be a second wave" (!)

Fair play for having the balls to gloat over predicting a deadly second wave, when that second wave kills roughly zero people a day in this country most days. A bit of step down from the Spanish flu stuff.

caveat emptor · 21-09-2020 08:07PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(20)31008-4

Caution should be taken when relying on policies that require long-term immunity, such as vaccination or natural infection to reach herd immunity. Other studies have shown that neutralizing SARS-CoV-2 antibody levels decrease within the first 2 months after infection, especially after mild COVID-197,8, and we observed a similar decrease in anti-nucleocapsid antibodies of seasonal coronaviruses. (Extended Data Fig. 6). However, antibodies are only one marker for immunity, which is probably also influenced by B cell- and T cell-mediated immunity In our study, we monitored reinfections, which can occur only when protective immunity (cellular and/or humoral) is insufficient. We show that reinfections by natural infection occur for all four seasonal coronaviruses, suggesting that it is a common feature for all human coronaviruses, including SARS-CoV-2.

Reinfections occurred most frequently at 12 months after infection, indicating that protective immunity is only short-lived.

Polar101 · 21-09-2020 08:09PM

Some idea on how much expanding testing capacity costs:

Helsinki Hospital District in Finland paid 100 million Euro to a private lab to rent their facilities for 10 months (so 10M€ / month), this will increase their Covid testing analysis lab capacity by 14000 daily (to 22000).

I wonder how much renting 2000 capacity from Germany costs.

Plumbthedepths · 21-09-2020 08:11PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Love how the reinfection crowd have blatantly ignored the paper I posted from one of the world's best medical journals debunking the theory

At this stage there are some here so entrenched that anything which goes against the narrative they are comfortable with is ignored.
Some will only 'thank' the misery and likewise others will only thank positive stuff.

DebDynamite · 21-09-2020 08:12PM

RebelButtMunch wrote: »

I smell a rat... in the kitchen

That’s UB40 :pac:

ACitizenErased · 21-09-2020 08:14PM

caveat emptor wrote: »

snip because way too much bold, hurting my eyes

I'm not sure if you understand immunity?
1) Antibodies are not permanent.
2) There's no such thing as complete sterilising natural immunity.
3) In line with these observations, none of the convalescent individuals in this study, including those with previous mild disease, have experienced further episodes of COVID-19. (I can put things in bold too)

lukas8888 · 21-09-2020 08:14PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

It's never published on the weekend, it'll be out tomorrow for today

Either they are previous days repeats but they have 14 day reports every day for the last three weeks including weekends apart from Sunday or today.Possible i'm mistaken.

ACitizenErased · 21-09-2020 08:16PM

caveat emptor wrote: »

snip

Also are you going to provide a source from a medical journal on the graph and whatever you quoted? Because it's not from the paper I posted.

bb1234567 · 21-09-2020 08:16PM

https://www.samrc.ac.za/reports/report-weekly-deaths-south-africa

Excess deaths in south africa have returned to just slightly above normal after a dramatic 2.5 month long increase beginning in June almost exactly two weeks after lockdown eased

Excess deaths in SF are almost 3x times higher than official COVID deaths - just under 45,000.

Polar101 · 21-09-2020 08:20PM

Gruffalox wrote: »

I have been fascinated how from day 1 of thread 1 people have accused others of masturbating in glee over bad stuff. It has been phrased in so many ways and fantastically embellished.

It's absolutely bizarre.

For me the most fascinating thing is how people still think they can win arguments on the internet (possibly by posting as many links they can google).

Covid 19 Part XXIII-33,444 in ROI(1,792 deaths) 9,541 in NI(577 deaths)(22/09)Read OP

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