Covid 19 Part XXIII-33,444 in ROI(1,792 deaths) 9,541 in NI(577 deaths)(22/09)Read OP

ACitizenErased · 21-09-2020 02:25PM

fits wrote: »

Its still climbing rapidly ACE. Even if there are discharges today. I'm pretty sure there will be over 100 in hospital by friday.

It's rising rapidly in Dublin.
The rest of the country is stable at ~25 in hospital.

13th September:
37 in Dublin
20 in rest of counties

20th September:
60 in Dublin
28 in rest of counties

Martina1991 · 21-09-2020 02:25PM

bb1234567 wrote:

Levels of testing are already enormous, I'm literally shocked these days by the amount of tests being performed everyday in Ireland the last few weeks/months. I don't know what level exactly that people will finally be pleased by or what scae they are expecting

People think testing and tracing are the solution to get get the virus under control. It's not.

Reducing contacts, social distancing, handwahsing, PPE control the virus.

Reduce the number of cases, reduce the number of contacts and referrals and testing capacity would be enough to meet demand.

It wouldn't make a difference if we could process 1 million tests a week if people continue to flout restrictions and do what they want.

Testing figures dont get the virus under control. They just tell us how f*cked we are.

mandrake04 · 21-09-2020 02:25PM

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Grand so we both agree that NZ has no relevance to Covid in Ireland
Btw the NZ health authorities are scrambling to trace the origin of the infection in three individuals. Auckland still under restrictions too, just saying...

yeah if it makes you happy lol, wow 3 individuals could be worse could be 300 or 400.

Plumbthedepths · 21-09-2020 02:26PM

Happydays2020 wrote: »

Re the zero Covid plan

If NPHET can guarantee that a further lock down of 8 weeks is all that is needed to mean we are back to normal (minus International travel) by Christmas I would go for that. I am ok with the steps needed to do this including closing the border with Northern Ireland in its entirety and having a super strict lock down.

You can't close a border that doesn't exist. The manpower is not there to block all the roads either.

fits · 21-09-2020 02:27PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

It's rising rapidly in Dublin.
The rest of the country is stable at ~25 in hospital.

13th September:
37 in Dublin
20 in rest of counties

20th September:
60 in Dublin
28 in rest of counties

something something exponential growth.

stephenjmcd · 21-09-2020 02:27PM

Just for what its worth seeing as I work in Dublin but live outside it, down in Cork for a few days and personally I think mask compliance certainly seems to be much higher here.

Now I could be wrong but just from what I've seen in Dublin might be 70 or 80% wearing them here it definitely looks like higher compliance.

Irish Steve · 21-09-2020 02:27PM

Gave up trying to keep up with this thread, and just jumped forward to the last page, so missed a couple of hundred posts. Looks like I didn't miss much.

I wish there was a facility to ignore posts that have quoted someone who's on the ignore list, it would reduce my read list by a significant number.

ACitizenErased · 21-09-2020 02:28PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Just for what its worth seeing as I work in Dublin but live outside it, down in Cork for a few days and personally I think mask compliance certainly seems to be much higher here.

Now I could be wrong but just from what I've seen in Dublin might be 70 or 80% wearing them here it definitely looks like higher compliance.

So we weren't lying

Oranage2 · 21-09-2020 02:28PM

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Any more details on that 90 available?

All sprained ankles if some are to be believed here.

ACitizenErased · 21-09-2020 02:28PM

fits wrote: »

something something exponential growth.

In 1 week, 25 counties +8
Dublin +23.

stephenjmcd · 21-09-2020 02:30PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

So we weren't lying

It does seem like more wearing them. Also noticing alot more kids with masks on as well

big syke · 21-09-2020 02:31PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

In 1 week, 25 counties +8
Dublin +23.

So 40% increase for rest of country. Hardly stable.

KrustyUCC · 21-09-2020 02:31PM

Despite the mask wearing I'm getting a bit worried about the Cork figures

Hopefully it's just large clusters getting caught now but I'd like to see the figures fall a good bit today

ACitizenErased · 21-09-2020 02:31PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

It does seem like more wearing them. Also noticing alot more kids with masks on as well

I've been saying it all along, there's a real togetherness about mask wearing around here. You will rarely see anyone without one in a shop. If they're not wearing one, someone will make it obvious to them. You can find kids masks in the majority of shops here too.

21-09-2020 02:31PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

We're likely to see discharges today. There's none over the weekend.

ICU has reduced by 1, one discharge.

Had a look at the data since August 1st - assuming the mean 10 days to hospitalisation from test still holds true, we are looking at a 3.7% rate (95%CI 2.8-4.6). Its not a trivial amount. Looking at the seven day average from 10 days ago we are looking at 6-9 admissions every day this week, next week we are looking at over 10 per day

ACitizenErased · 21-09-2020 02:32PM

big syke wrote: »

So 40% increase for rest of country. Hardly stable.

Per 100,000 hospitalisation rate last week:
25 counties: 0.21

Dublin: 1.77

fits · 21-09-2020 02:35PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

It does seem like more wearing them. Also noticing alot more kids with masks on as well

One of my 3 year olds is wearing them in shops now. Absolutely no prompting from us. Just announced he wanted to wear one at the weekend. (I had bought them in Aldi to have in case things get a lot worse and they were sitting there).

I don't think he has much awareness of the virus but obviously something is getting through to him. Its a little sad really.

big syke · 21-09-2020 02:35PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Per 100,000 hospitalisation rate last week:
25 counties: 2.1

Dublin: 17.7

Thats against overall population right?

Surely it should be against numbers in the county that have covid?

You cannot say other counties are stable at hospitalisation rates at +40%.

ACitizenErased · 21-09-2020 02:36PM

big syke wrote: »

Thats against overall population right?

Surely it should be against numbers in the county that have covid?

Dublin has had approx 50% of cases in last 2-3 weeks. Currently accounts for 70% of hospitalisations.

big syke · 21-09-2020 02:37PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Dublin has had approx 50% of cases in last 2-3 weeks. Currently accounts for 70% of hospitalisations.

Ok that fine. But how can you say other counties hosp. rate is stable?

SeaBreezes · 21-09-2020 02:38PM

Widdensushi wrote: »

Sweden seems to be doing well, without masks etc, it must be 6 months since many of their people got covid

I dunno.. aparently impossible to get tested and...

https://twitter.com/itosettiMD_MBA/status/1307252754134560768?s=19

ACitizenErased · 21-09-2020 02:38PM

big syke wrote: »

Ok that fine. But how can you say other counties hosp. rate is stable?

Who said that? I said Dublin is rising rapidly. Rose by 23 in the last week, compared to 8 across the country. Thats a rise 8 times higher per 100,000 than the rest of the country.

21-09-2020 02:40PM

Martina1991 wrote: »

People think testing and tracing are the solution to get get the virus under control. It's not.

Reducing contacts, social distancing, handwahsing, PPE control the virus.

Reduce the number of cases, reduce the number of contacts and referrals and testing capacity would be enough to meet demand.

It wouldn't make a difference if we could process 1 million tests a week if people continue to flout restrictions and do what they want.

Testing figures dont get the virus under control. They just tell us how f*cked we are.

Test test test per who

The better we test trace isolate the better control we have. Look at germany and south korea. Efficient testing is one of the most important tools we have. I disagree with your post.

Fionn1952 · 21-09-2020 02:41PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

In 1 week, 25 counties +8
Dublin +23.

A 62% increase in Dublin versus a 40% increase outside of Dublin isn't as dramatic a difference between the two as some are trying to paint.

That being said, it's hard to apply much in the ways of sensible trend analysis with such small numbers in the first place.

big syke · 21-09-2020 02:41PM

You said it.

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Who said that? I said Dublin is rising rapidly. Rose by 23 in the last week, compared to 8 across the country. Thats a rise 8 times higher per 100,000 than the rest of the country.

ACitizenErased wrote: »

It's rising rapidly in Dublin.
The rest of the country is stable at ~25 in hospital.

13th September:
37 in Dublin
20 in rest of counties

20th September:
60 in Dublin
28 in rest of counties

ACitizenErased · 21-09-2020 02:41PM

Fionn1952 wrote: »

A 62% increase in Dublin versus a 40% increase outside of Dublin isn't as dramatic a difference between the two as some are trying to paint.

That being said, it's hard to apply much in the ways of sensible trend analysis with such small numbers in the first place.

You can't really use percentages increases when numbers are so low, especially comparing 8 with 23.

ACitizenErased · 21-09-2020 02:44PM

big syke wrote: »

You said it.

The average of 20 and 28 = ~25

Dublin is rising rapidly, while the rest of the country has remained around the 25 mark.

20th Sep: 28
19th Sep: 24
18th Sep: 26
17th Sep: 26
16th Sep: 25

Am I wrong?

2ndcoming · 21-09-2020 02:44PM

Fionn1952 wrote: »

A 62% increase in Dublin versus a 40% increase outside of Dublin isn't as dramatic a difference between the two as some are trying to paint.

That being said, it's hard to apply much in the ways of sensible trend analysis with such small numbers in the first place.

In terms of geography it is a huge difference. You don't want it spreading the fastest in the most populated but third smallest county in the country.

The 8 in the country could be (and probably are) hundreds of miles apart and totally unconnected.

Funsterdelux · 21-09-2020 02:45PM

Pennys Wilton, 16 staff test +

ACitizenErased · 21-09-2020 02:45PM

Funsterdelux wrote: »

Pennys Wilton, 16 staff test +

Heard that today, didn't know what business.

Covid 19 Part XXIII-33,444 in ROI(1,792 deaths) 9,541 in NI(577 deaths)(22/09)Read OP

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