Covid 19 Part XXIII-33,444 in ROI(1,792 deaths) 9,541 in NI(577 deaths)(22/09)Read OP

What Username Guidelines · 18-09-2020 09:58PM

iamwhoiam wrote: »

Just my opinion but I think they made a huge mistake by lifting the restrictions early . They merged two phases together ( was it 2 and 3 ) and this made people complacent and feel it was beaten . Since then attitudes changed and people lost the motive

Was absolutely a Fine Gael exit move. Right lads, new government incoming, Leo and Simon can look good unwinding it all for the others to clean up. Martin and Donnelly will mess it up even further, Leo will come back when things are improving and I presume Donnelly will get a vote of no confidence at some stage. Maybe Harris for new minister of covid response.

ThunbergsAreGo · 18-09-2020 09:59PM

Soulsun wrote: »

Piece of string question....

How long are we likely to stay in level 3?

6 months

Ficheall · 18-09-2020 09:59PM

dodzy wrote: »

There’s showing off...and there’s showing off

Yes, look at me, I can do secondary school maths*..
No harm to be explicit from the get-go - I got dragged into someone questioning my ability to divide and multiply numbers yesterday.

*Some. I despised trigonometry.

igCorcaigh · 18-09-2020 10:00PM

Soulsun wrote: »

Piece of string question....

How long are we likely to stay in level 3?

They have no algorithm to switch between levels.

What Username Guidelines · 18-09-2020 10:00PM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Sorry didn’t see that. Shocking really.

Both shocking numbers.

Looks like all numbers going wrong way for them

https://twitter.com/bnodesk/status/1307057039353565185?s=21

hmmm · 18-09-2020 10:00PM

Soulsun wrote: »

Piece of string question....

How long are we likely to stay in level 3?

Kildare were out within 3 weeks.

If people take it seriously (and most people will) we have a good chance. Unfortunately in a city the size of Dublin there will be sizeable populations of gob****es, and if they continue their gob****ery and if other people don't call them out for it we will be in phase 3 (or worse) for longer.

ThunbergsAreGo · 18-09-2020 10:00PM

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

That was yesterday. 3,000 more today

https://twitter.com/bnodesk/status/1307049498045222915?s=21

What are the ICU/Deaths?

xhomelezz · 18-09-2020 10:01PM

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

If you need to shout at your child to get them to behave properly , I don't think the child is the problem tbh.

Really?

ThunbergsAreGo · 18-09-2020 10:01PM

hmmm wrote: »

Kildare were out within 3 weeks.

If people take it seriously (and most people will) we have a good chance. Unfortunately in a city the size of Dublin there will be sizeable populations of gob****es, and if they continue their gob****ery and if other people don't call them out for it we will be in phase 3 (or worse) for longer.

Or it is coming into winter when Coronavirus is more prevelant

Goldengirl · 18-09-2020 10:02PM

niamh247 wrote: »

Why is the govt so obsessive about keeping schools open? Dozens of kids crammed in small rooms and moving from room to room for every subject? Half of the kids not wearing any face coverings. And all kids not following social distancing and not taking any special care about what they touch etc. Is there any sense in this?? How did the policy makers become so illogical and insensitive?

Education is one of the most important pillars in a child's life .
You only have to look at what happens when children don't attend school on a regular basis to see that.
However they should not be moving from room to room .
Guidelines are face masks , hand sanitising and based in one room as much as possible .

igCorcaigh · 18-09-2020 10:03PM

Same pattern. The surge has been in the young, so low death curve, but takes time to get into the elderly population, deaths slowly increase.

Not rocket science. There is no casedemic.

The virus has not changed. I hope the new treatments work.

Plumbthedepths · 18-09-2020 10:03PM

ThunbergsAreGo wrote: »

6 months

What's going to different in 6 months?

GooglePlus · 18-09-2020 10:04PM

Messi19 wrote: »

Would I be mad in thinking that our "experts" might not actually be all that. They've been saying that trends in other countries point to this and that without actually backing it up.

Maybe I'm just starting to lose the plot!

There are no true experts when it comes to something so unprecedented as everyone is learning as they go.

Polar101 · 18-09-2020 10:04PM

Soulsun wrote: »

Piece of string question....

How long are we likely to stay in level 3?

Three weeks of level 3, and then some of level 4. Or not.

Just thinking that if it (the restrictions) took about a week in Laois, two in Offaly and three in Kildare, maybe it'll take longer in Dublin?

Happydays2020 · 18-09-2020 10:04PM

ThunbergsAreGo wrote: »

6 months

Nope. 3 weeks and then level 5.

ThunbergsAreGo · 18-09-2020 10:04PM

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

What's going to different in 6 months?

No idea but any more feels too depressing

Possibility of a vaccine, or just coming out of flu / corona season

I think we are in this for a long time

GooglePlus · 18-09-2020 10:07PM

hmmm wrote: »

Kildare were out within 3 weeks.

If people take it seriously (and most people will) we have a good chance. Unfortunately in a city the size of Dublin there will be sizeable populations of gob****es, and if they continue their gob****ery and if other people don't call them out for it we will be in phase 3 (or worse) for longer.

Kildare came about from a handful of outbreaks, it was far more containable but this is a different ball game.

What Username Guidelines · 18-09-2020 10:10PM

ThunbergsAreGo wrote: »

What are the ICU/Deaths?

Not sure on their daily numbers, but the follow up tweet above shows they’re going in the wrong direction, deaths more than doubled this week

speckle · 18-09-2020 10:11PM

TonyMaloney wrote: »

You're close, speckle. Very close.

But doubling does not mean multiplying the original number. It's compound.

The second time you double, you double on the result of the last doubling. I'm sure that should clear up matters.

2+2=4 cases/people/positive tests

4+4=8 and add the 4 from the previous sum/day to make 12

then

12+12= 24 and add the 12 from the previous sum/day to make 36

and on and on until you run out of numbers/people(cos no one left to infect for various reasons)

or you add restrictions/road blocks to slow down the increase

some cases/people will be hot/infectious or cold/non infectious positives

And along a line on a chart, somewhere depending on the (Rnought/reproductive rate) of covid that point will equal double of an earlier point?

GAWD... I am a musician give me Eflat!!!

How did I do? pass

igCorcaigh · 18-09-2020 10:11PM

ThunbergsAreGo wrote: »

I think we are in this for a long time

Yeah, we will be, but it will be under control, it won't be too bad. Just a thing we will get used to, and treatments will be so much better.

It won't be the killer as it was. I really think new treatments will come out. We will be OK.

Goldengirl · 18-09-2020 10:12PM

iamwhoiam wrote: »

Just my opinion but I think they made a huge mistake by lifting the restrictions early . They merged two phases together ( was it 2 and 3 ) and this made people complacent and feel it was beaten . Since then attitudes changed and people lost the motive

Yes , but do you remember how everyone just wanted to go for a haircut and a pint ?

What Username Guidelines · 18-09-2020 10:13PM

Polar101 wrote: »

Three weeks of level 3, and then some of level 4. Or not.

Just thinking that if it (the restrictions) took about a week in Laois, two in Offaly and three in Kildare, maybe it'll take longer in Dublin?

Doesn’t the fact that it took just a week in Laois disprove it was lockdown that worked?

It seems LOK had a meat plant problem with some community transmission. Once they were under control it was back to previous levels.

Issue is, Dublin doesn’t have a lot of meat plants and it seems community spread is higher. Not sure how indoor dining ban will stem that.

Goldengirl · 18-09-2020 10:14PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

We don't trace where people got it. We ask where they were 48 hours prior. That's why community transmission is high.

Yes, ACE , that is right !

firemansam4 · 18-09-2020 10:14PM

niamh247 wrote:

Lack of schooling doesn't create duds. Bad parenting does. For example, taking an year of break from schooling has no effect on learning potential or relative job prospects. But as a parent, not being able to even shout at bad behaviour of a kid, creates all the mess we are seeing with teenagers in Ireland.

What a Croc of sh**t

Are you a parent by any chance?
I've a young child with learning difficulties and as hard as we tried with home schooling, missing time out of school was having a negative effect on him.
Children need there education, and all the shouting at a kid to keep them obedient is not going to change that...

iamwhoiam · 18-09-2020 10:16PM

Goldengirl wrote: »

Yes , but do you remember how everyone just wanted to go for a haircut and a pint ?

And oddly enough hairdressers dont seem to be the problem after all

bilston · 18-09-2020 10:17PM

El Sueño wrote: »

Surely if the 2-3 months thing was true we'd have hundreds of reinfections by now?
Judging by how gleefully the 3 or so reinfections have been reported so far I'm sure we'd have heard of more by now.

2-3 months and antibodies start to wane, it presumably takes longer for immunity to completely disappear.

tobefrank321 · 18-09-2020 10:17PM

TonyMaloney wrote: »

You're close, speckle. Very close.

But doubling does not mean multiplying the original number. It's compound.

The second time you double, you double on the result of the last doubling. I'm sure that should clear up matters.

He's not close, he's right. Day 1, 1 case, day 3, 2 cases, day 6, 4 cases and so on. That's what he meant.

We get that you understand exponential growth. Unfortunately you simply have not grasped the importance of a time frame when it comes to infectious diseases.

Doubling every 3 days - immediate and severe lockdown.

Doubling every 2 weeks - limited restrictions should be enough to bring it back under control and/or live with it.

Got it yet?

caveat emptor · 18-09-2020 10:18PM

UK estimates R0 at 1.4. Doubling time at 7 days. They are bringing in national restrictions next week. Test trace already overwhelmed. Hospital admissions have doubled week on week.

Really coming to a head across Europe. Earlier into autumn / winter than expected.

source:bbc news at ten

xhomelezz · 18-09-2020 10:19PM

firemansam4 wrote: »

What a Croc of sh**t

Are you a parent by any chance?
I've a young child with learning difficulties and as hard as we tried with home schooling, missing time out of school was having a negative effect on him.
Children need there education, and all the shouting at a kid to keep them obedient is not going to change that...

Think you misunderstood OP's post.

bilston · 18-09-2020 10:20PM

CiarraiManc wrote: »

There isn't going to be a vaccine. People are being strung along like fools by science fiction

I think the overwhelming view of the experts is that there will be a vaccine and we will have it soon enough.

How effective it is and how long it provides immunity remains to be seen, but Id be surprised if there isn't something in the next six months that will drastically improve the situation.

Covid 19 Part XXIII-33,444 in ROI(1,792 deaths) 9,541 in NI(577 deaths)(22/09)Read OP

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