Covid 19 Part XXIII-33,444 in ROI(1,792 deaths) 9,541 in NI(577 deaths)(22/09)Read OP

KrustyUCC · 18-09-2020 05:52PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I heard today the vast majority of cases in Cork atm are from Ballincollig alone

That's very plausible

Over 20,000 people in Ballincollig and many more from surrounding areas working and going to school as well

podgeandrodge · 18-09-2020 05:52PM

I think public opinion in next month or so will turn towards 'let it rip' with emphasis on social distancing/hand washing. Not saying that hospitals won't get overwhelmed, but as has been said by politicians way back, only so long people will take restrictions.

ACitizenErased · 18-09-2020 05:53PM

KrustyUCC wrote: »

That's very plausible

Over 20,000 people in Ballincollig and many more from surrounding areas working and going to school as well

As far as I know Ballincollig actually had one of the highest infection rates by electoral district since the beginning

s1ippy · 18-09-2020 05:53PM

https://twitter.com/CorkSafetyAlert/status/1306995304999399425?s=19
Ballincollig is after ya

titan18 · 18-09-2020 05:55PM

podgeandrodge wrote: »

This. What the actual F.

They have spent weeks telling people not to have house parties and to do staycations.

Now they are pretty much guaranteeing house parties and encouraging people to take a plane abroad. I was due to go down south for a couple of weeks staycation, but we are now looking at going abroad after all as a result of this.

Tbf, anyone willing to have a house party is a selfish **** imo, and it's cos of those people, we're all suffering, and why we'll all continue to suffer.

podgeandrodge · 18-09-2020 05:55PM

s1ippy wrote: »

https://twitter.com/CorkSafetyAlert/status/1306995304999399425?s=19
Ballincollig is after ya

Shhh! Schools are fine.

Close the primary schools down for a couple of months, keep those dirty germ ridden brats at home together with their parents. A few months missed education won't hurt them!

Problem solved.

podgeandrodge · 18-09-2020 05:56PM

titan18 wrote: »

Tbf, anyone willing to have a house party is a selfish **** imo, and it's cos of those people, we're all suffering, and why we'll all continue to suffer.

Be that as it may. But that is what will happen. Govt themselves have pretty much said it all along. They've been trying to discourage house events. Now they've pretty much removed the alternatives.

tobefrank321 · 18-09-2020 05:58PM

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Wrong, I'm afraid.

Once the R is over 1 you're in doubling territory.

Doubling within what time frame?

If its 1.1, you're doubling about every 8 weeks if you assume a person is infectious for 1 week.

Do you call doubling every 8 weeks exponential? Of course it isn't. If it was to double week on week, then you could accurately call it exponential. Is nowhere near that at present.

Today's numbers for Dublin are again reasonably stable.

KrustyUCC · 18-09-2020 05:58PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

As far as I know Ballincollig actually had one of the highest infection rates by electoral district since the beginning

True but still tiny by population

Had 57 cases up to June

Only 4 additional cases up to August

Electoral area hasn't been updated since

Benimar · 18-09-2020 05:58PM

There is something going on with the positive swabs.

Today was the 3rd day in a row that announced cases were a bit less than positive swabs. That means one of two things:

1. They have started to re-test already confirmed positive cases (not sure why they would), something that hasn't been happening for months, as figures tend to always tie in over a 2 or 3 day period.
2. There are up to 130 unannounced cases going back to last friday. Hopefully not, as backlogs are normally cleared earlier than a week, but there has been 130+ more positive swabs than announced cases over the last week.

froog · 18-09-2020 05:59PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Doubling within what time frame?

If its 1.1, you're doubling about every 8 weeks if you assume a person is infectious for 1 week.

Do you call doubling every 8 weeks exponential? Of course it isn't.

Today's numbers for Dublin are again still reasonably stable.

14 days doubling time in dublin according to prof nolan.

podgeandrodge · 18-09-2020 06:00PM

:rolleyes::rolleyes:

titan18 · 18-09-2020 06:01PM

podgeandrodge wrote: »

Be that as it may. But that is what will happen. Govt themselves have pretty much said it all along. They've been trying to discourage house events. Now they've pretty much removed the alternatives.

Messaging for a while has pretty much please use common sense, social distance, wear masks etc and we've a sizable enough cohort who aren't doing those or just want things to go along as normal.

We were given the opportunity to sort this ourselves and we failed.

What Username Guidelines · 18-09-2020 06:01PM

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Wrong, I'm afraid.

Once the R is over 1 you're in doubling territory.

When the R is over 1, it's just growing. Your definition means that any sort of growth is exponential growth.

Goldengirl · 18-09-2020 06:01PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Doubling within what time frame?

If its 1.1, you're doubling about every 8 weeks if you assume a person is infectious for 1 week.

Do you call doubling every 8 weeks exponential? Of course it isn't. If it was to double week on week, then you could accurately call it exponential. Is nowhere near that at present.

Today's numbers for Dublin are again reasonably stable.

?

Figures doubling every 2 weeks at least for last month .

landofthetree · 18-09-2020 06:02PM

Israel in lock down after all the talk that a second lockdown wouldn't happen anywhere.

A fool of a German politician said a second lockdown wouldn't be needed during a second wave.

The fact is if the health systems cant cope then the politicians have little choice.

KrustyUCC · 18-09-2020 06:02PM

Benimar wrote: »

There is something going on with the positive swabs.

Today was the 3rd day in a row that announced cases were a bit less than positive swabs. That means one of two things:

1. They have started to re-test already confirmed positive cases (not sure why they would), something that hasn't been happening for months, as figures tend to always tie in over a 2 or 3 day period.
2. There are up to 130 unannounced cases going back to last friday. Hopefully not, as backlogs are normally cleared earlier than a week, but there has been 130+ more positive swabs than announced cases over the last week.

Saturdays are usually high figures so I fear the additional tests might be lumped in tomorrow

tobefrank321 · 18-09-2020 06:03PM

1641 wrote: »

That is simply false. Once R is greater than 1 there is exponential acceleration.The only question becomes the rate of exponential growth. An R of less than 1 would indicate exponential decline.

Todays Dublin cases are lower than yesterdays! There has been a small increase in cases in Dublin since last week, perhaps 10% week on week.

A 10% increase is not exponential growth.

Exponential growth is 100% increase, followed by 200%, 400%, 800%...

Benimar · 18-09-2020 06:03PM

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Saturdays are usually high figures so I fear the additional tests might be lumped in tomorrow

So do I I’m afraid.

Wolf359f · 18-09-2020 06:04PM

spookwoman wrote: »

253 new cases - 116 in Dublin. 22 in Kildare, 14 in Cork, 14 in Galway, 13 in Donegal, 10 in Limerick, 10 in Louth, 9 in Mayo, 8 in Waterford, 7 in Wicklow and the remaining 30 cases are located in Carlow, Cavan, Clare, Kilkenny, Laois, Longford, Meath, Monaghan, Offaly, Tipperary, Westmeath.
1% are under 45 years of age

45% are confirmed to be associated with outbreaks or are close contacts of a confirmed case

61 cases have been identified as community transmission.

3 deaths

1% under the age of 45?
That can't be right?

niallo27 · 18-09-2020 06:04PM

landofthetree wrote: »

Israel in lock down after all the talk that a second lockdown wouldn't happen anywhere.

A fool of a German politician said a second lockdown wouldn't be needed during a second wave.

The fact is if the health systems cant cope then the politicians have little choice.

What had a German politician got to do with Israel locking down.

Goldengirl · 18-09-2020 06:05PM

Benimar wrote: »

There is something going on with the positive swabs.

Today was the 3rd day in a row that announced cases were a bit less than positive swabs. That means one of two things:

1. They have started to re-test already confirmed positive cases (not sure why they would), something that hasn't been happening for months, as figures tend to always tie in over a 2 or 3 day period.
2. There are up to 130 unannounced cases going back to last friday. Hopefully not, as backlogs are normally cleared earlier than a week, but there has been 130+ more positive swabs than announced cases over the last week.

This has been explained by Martina and Mandrake.
It is retesting of patients staff etc to check if still positive, and also some cases where contact tracing have to confirm data before they can say it is a new positive case, from what I understand.

froog · 18-09-2020 06:05PM

michail likes a pint too!

pjohnson · 18-09-2020 06:06PM

podgeandrodge wrote: »

Be that as it may. But that is what will happen. Govt themselves have pretty much said it all along. They've been trying to discourage house events. Now they've pretty much removed the alternatives.

We needed to give the Gardai the power to forcibly break up parties but naturally the party goers were outraged at the idea, god knows why they were listened to.

froog · 18-09-2020 06:06PM

"virus leaves people disabled for months"

wuuuuuuut??

Mental Mickey · 18-09-2020 06:06PM

Meehaul speaking now

s1ippy · 18-09-2020 06:06PM

Ah he went to the trouble of learning the speech, fair play.

Cody montana · 18-09-2020 06:07PM

Mental Mickey wrote: »

Meehaul speaking now

He's so boring.

tobefrank321 · 18-09-2020 06:07PM

Goldengirl wrote: »

?

Figures doubling every 2 weeks at least for last month .

Do you agree the time frame is important here?

If cases doubled in a year, would you describe that as exponential? Technically it is, but to describe it as such as simple scaremongering. You would describe it as a slow growth in numbers.

So a politician who throws out the world exponential growth as I've seen a few do lately is just scaremongering.

Harry Palmr · 18-09-2020 06:07PM

Rather than moaning about the technical group and politicians maybe you should just ask yourself why so many of the public are so bad at doing the right thing for their own good, for that of their family, friends and economic fortunes.

Some of you are the ones having house parties, chatting in groups without masks, and generally being thoughtless and careless.

Covid 19 Part XXIII-33,444 in ROI(1,792 deaths) 9,541 in NI(577 deaths)(22/09)Read OP

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