Covid 19 Part XXIII-33,444 in ROI(1,792 deaths) 9,541 in NI(577 deaths)(22/09)Read OP

Deleted User wrote: »

Australia and israel did not have first waves.

Why did Leo seem open to the possibility on tv yesterday of it weakening, yet your so sure it has not. Are you a medical doctor?

True about Israel +Australia but I think the near 600 deaths in Spain over the last 72 hours have pretty blatantly dismissed the virus weakening theory

Stheno wrote: »

135 out of how many?

Anywhere I've been are rigid with guidelines tbh

165 'restaurant' pubs breaching the guidelines. Three weeks ago (more now).

That's a lot of opportunity for our 20-25% community transmission to occur.

Plenty on here and Twitter boasting about no food, staying 5 hours, showing their 30 pint and 3 substantial meal receipts.

Deleted User wrote: »

Spain's reporting of numbers has been questionable.

I don't know what you mean..that they're exaggerating the number of deaths or what? The dramatic increase in number of ICU admission(over 500+) over the last 7 days also matches the large increase in deaths (and cases and test positivity rate), so I don't think there's anything too immediately questionable about it

What I gather from this article is that we are still technically on our first wave still.
A wave first has to run through the population of a country/state's/geographic area's etc. Then you have a fall in numbers to close it either naturally or enforced. If it then re emerges it is a second wave.

In Ireland we brought the numbers down through enforced measures/restrictions but it never got the chance to run through all of the population. First time it sadly mainly infected those who where high risk e.g. nursing homes and healthcare workers. It really didn't touch most young people, working people or children. Our increase recently has been in those categories.

Hence, like our governments 5 phase pandemic plan that would put it as wave 1.5.
Correct me with other definitions, as it seems to, not be defined well as even the epidemiologist in the article states.

https://www.discovermagazine.com/health/the-u-s-isnt-i

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

We reached 1,000 cases daily in mid-April which coincided with intensive care treatment coming under serious pressure if left unchecked. So that's something we can sort of compare to.

That pressure was relieved rapidly due to the lockdown as the number of new cases plummeted to 200'ish by the end of April.

NPHET are predicting we will have between 500 - 1,000 cases daily by the end of September. Other health officials are predicting it will be between 3,000 - 5,000 daily new cases by the end of October if the current tend continues. NPHET do not wish to make their predictions public for that far out.

It's hard to see how the health system will not seriously struggle given that the type of lockdown we saw at the start of the pandemic is unlikely to happen this time around.

I agree that we cant take our eye of the ball for now, but 1000 cases in April are not the same as 1000 cases now. There is a much wider test net now and we test A LOT of people positive we would never have known about in April.

Going by case/hospitalisation rate now vs. April I'd say our 1000 April cases could easily translate to 6000 cases now.

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Would you rather people drank in controlled environments or uncontrolled environments?

Well, obviously a controlled environment.

But, I think that either/or binary choice is a false way to frame the situation. 

First of all, I have my doubts about how controlled of an environment a lot of pubs actually are - and how controlled a lot of their patrons often are to boot. I'm sure there's lots of pubs out there that follow every rule and never stray from any guidelines - but we all know there are plenty, plenty, out there that don't.

We all know this.

Also we also all know, even from just reading this thread alone, how many people boast about having a feed of pints and not giving a flying fck about restrictions, time limits - any of it.

I amn't saying everyone is like that and every pub is like that, but this picture of pubs always being these lock-tight-everything-above-board-ultra-sticklers for rules - well, I'm not sure to believe that one Citizen. And now, I don't know about this for sure, but if I was to go back deep into your own post history would I maybe find one or two posts about you yourself staying for hours and getting well plastered in some of these "controlled" environments? If not you, then I'll certainly find literally hundreds of other posters boasting about exactly that. And that's only boards, I don't how many times I've heard of it outside of here - countless, countless, times. Controlled environments? Sometimes, Citizen, sometimes. But, I'm not green enough to believe it all of the time.

And look, people who are going to have house parties are still going to have house parties. Their desire for the craic is not going to be extinguished by two hours in a public house, that's if it sticks to the rules in the first place, of course. Closing time is 11:30 these days. What do you think most groups will do at 11:30 at night? Things are just getting started bro! And you want more rules? - that'll make the pub an even more viable alternative to a house party to those inclined to have one alright - eh, what?

People who go to pubs and obey the rules are not the ones who then will have house parties without the pub being an option. And they aren't the problem.

The problem are the ones who do have the house parties - and I don't believe opening pubs, under strangulated rules and regulations, is going to have much of a material difference in the amount of house parties that take place. The pub usually compliments a party, it's a pit-stop on the journey - in my drunken party going experience; and I have a lot of experience.

If you're going to have a house party then a pub being open or closed isn't going to stop you - they are still going to go on. They've existed for a long time before lockdowns and restrictions. And this is even when pubs were open all the time - some of them even past 11:30 at night!

We were talking earlier about what you think should be the approach. And you seemed to think that there should be greater emphasis on cracking down on private gatherings and house parties and as well as further regulation of wet pubs:

Open wet pubs with extra regulations & time limits, force people out of homes and into controlled environments. Limit home gatherings and introduce heavy fines if caught.
The clear issue right now is home gatherings, not people having a burger down the local.

I agree the issue is home gatherings, as opposed to the wet pub. But wet pubs aren't open - it's very hard for them to be the issue if they aren't open.

Limit home gatherings.

That sounds very easy, but I don't think that it is really enforceable - both in terms of the logistics and the basic legality.

There's been limits on home gatherings for ages and they've been widely ignored. Would you be comfortable with legislation that would give Gardai the right to enter private dwellings and start dishing out fines and maybe more, totally upending our culture of policing and the inviolability of private dwellings? Just to make sure, indirectly, that people go to the pub?

And lets say the government went through the tortuous and fractious legal process of signing something like this into law. How many more Gardai would be required to actually police this - dozens? hundreds? I'm sure taking them away from other police work to knock on doors, all across the land, where they suspect a party to be taking place isn't going to prove problematic. And why are we doing all this again? - oh, yeah, because we want pubs to be open.

In reality the government can only do so much. And I'm glad of it. I personally would be concerned if Gardai had the right to enter private dwellings, just because they strongly suspect craic to be taking place - I think that's a step too far on the state's reach. I don't foresee it being a reality, in any case. I think it's a legal minefield and the resources simply aren't there to police it.

The government really can't do much more in real terms to stop people drinking in "uncontrolled" environments. All they can do is place restrictions on the "controlled" environments that, given what is known about how the virus spreads and our specific drinking culture, stand a more than fair chance of being places where the virus can spread. It's something they can do. For the rest - then they have to rely, without coercion, on people being responsible and trying to do the right thing.

It comes down to personal responsibility. People are not obligated to have house parties, people are not obligated to disregard rules on gatherings. It is a personal choice. It is a lame excuse, a total disavowal, of your own capacity for decision making to blame it all pubs being closed. Everyone knows now that house parties and social gatherings are driving rates of infection in the country, ignorance is not an excuse - it's up to individuals to modify their behaviour and try to do the right thing.

It involves sacrifice. Everything in this absolutely shite period of time for everyone involves some form of sacrifice. It does not follow that pubs are closed, ergo, I must have a house party. People should just take responsibility, not whinge constantly and expect the government to hold their hand on every last little thing - and moan when the Goverment does try to hold people's hands - and knuckle down and do our bit until we have this under control again and accept that, given their nature, pubs are always going to be amongst the first places to feel the brunt of restrictions.

CalamariFritti wrote: »

I dont think there is a 2nd wave. Its the same wave with a lockdown dent in it. I also dont think its weakening, its just a numbers game.

570 people have died in Spain in the last 72 hours with 1330 in ICU currently, mostly in Madrid region. It is undeniably a second wave at this stage and not just in numbers of cases any longer.

Too late, our time is done, sends shivers down my spine.....

LOL. And this is really where we are now despite all our efforts. Ah well.

Deleted User wrote: »

The virus all by itself might kill the spirit too, I'm afraid.

Don't agree. Maybe for some, but for most of us it is just get on with it territory now. The human spirit is great and will cope. Look at most of us on here!

It is what it is, and we either observe or go rogue, but I really don't think that is happening much either. To be fair it ain't perfect or nice either for the record.

Dublin is a bit of a problem now. So get the shopping delivered, get the grog in, and get on with it.

I always say to those who moan, aren't we so lucky to have gardens. Really feel for those who have no outside space. Balconies are so rare here too I think. But hopefully that is changing too. Everyone needs to breathe outside.

That's where we are at now.