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Covid 19 Part XXIII-33,444 in ROI(1,792 deaths) 9,541 in NI(577 deaths)(22/09)Read OP

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Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,950 ✭✭✭polesheep


    Friend of yours?

    Just a randomer. There's lots of them about.


  • Posts: 6,583 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    niallo27 wrote: »
    So do you think they will drink at home after because the pubs are open or do you think they will anyway.

    Why wouldn't they drink with their mates in a house before or after the pub in your opinion?

    BTW heading to bed, so will reply some time tomorrow.


  • Posts: 1,662 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Wolf359f wrote: »
    Nobody, I don't believe any models of infections has been accurate at all.

    Exactly so why be so negative.

    I actually don't think worldometers will be massively out. Plenty out their saying covid may have lost some of its aggression. All coronaviruses do eventually.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,139 ✭✭✭✭niallo27


    DubInMeath wrote: »
    Why wouldn't they drink with their mates in a house before or after the pub in your opinion?

    BTW heading to bed, so will reply some time tomorrow.

    Well my question is more do you think opening pubs will make any difference to these people drinking at home.


  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators Posts: 6,524 Mod ✭✭✭✭Irish Steve


    Been catching up again, keeping up to date with this thread is hard work, and depressing at the same time.

    What's become clear is that too many posters in this thread are clearly only here or watching RTE, if they were watching anything from outside of Ireland, there might be some understanding of why NPHET are looking to take the action they are.

    2 specific examples from the UK today.

    Part of South Wales has been locked down, and a significant part of the reason for that the cases have significantly spiked upwards, as the result of the actions of 2 pubs, (now closed) a rugby club and a social trip out by coach on effectively a pub crawl to the races at Doncaster, which they never got to as the pub crawl went so well!

    The other case was the North East, the leader of the authority gave an interview on Sky News this morning, asking for Government help, as their tracing process had found 3 areas that meant they needed to lock down to reduce the case load.

    The first problem was the number of cases coming from Pubs and hospitality.

    The second was the number of cases coming from "house parties".

    The third problem area was the number of cases happening as a result of outdoor sports activities.

    Looks to me like the problem here is that the tracing system is not actually finding the real reasons, and I find myself thinking that's because the interview process is not asking the questions in a way that gets the real answers, there's plenty of anecdotal evidence here this evening about the way that pubs and restaurants are "massaging" the rules.

    Yes, Communions and confirmations have not helped, and although it's not been mentioned here, there have been some schools that in violation of guidelines they were given had combined mass when they restarted.

    Speaking personally, and I know it won't be a popular opinion, the sooner we get organised religion out of the education system, the better it will be for many areas of life.

    Someone's already mentioned the morning coffee meetings that happen after the mums have dropped the kids to school.

    Can't remember if it was in this thread or the Wet pub thread, I mentioned a friend who went into a local wet pub for the first time in a long time, it's been opened by bringing in take away or similar, he walked in, took one look and turned round and walked back out again, the place was rammed, with no separation, people queuing at the bar, and there's plenty of other cases been reported where "the rules" are being seen as flexible guidance.

    At some point, the people at the top have to make the hard decisions of how to get things back under some sort of control, they can't ignore the surge that's happening, and it's clear that the present rules are no longer working, regardless of what level you give them, or how you them modify them to meet the specific situation that's happening on the ground.

    The underfunded and under resourced hospital systems are still not going to be capable of dealing with the sort of overload that happened in places like Italy and Spain, so action now to reduce the increasing trend has to happen to keep the future deaths as low as possible.

    It is that simple. The damage to the economy will be much worse if we end up with the whole country having to go into full level 4 or 5 lockdown, and prevaricating now for too long will make that more likely, far better to go with the changes that are needed, and try to ensure that the PR machine makes the reasons clear, and does whatever it can to get people back on side.

    Golfgate for sure didn't help, for all the well discussed reasons, the lack of clarity this week hasn't been good, and the lack of preparation during the lull over the summer has not been good either, and it's clear that the present track and trace system is not delivering clear results in the time needed, and it's also not working as expected, which means that at some point, there needs to be massive change to make the whole health system truly fit for purpose.

    Shore, if it was easy, everybody would be doin it.😁



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  • Site Banned Posts: 5,975 ✭✭✭podgeandrodge


    Fine Gael tweeted yesterday that they were ensuring that the damage caused by Covid to the economy was going to be stopped. Then they continued to close down the economy.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,251 ✭✭✭speckle


    Goldengirl wrote: »
    Which if they were obeying the guidelines should have been ok ?


    You would really have to look at the epidemiological info and see when they were probably infected/infectious, e.g. if a number of them where already unknowingly infected but asymptomatic or pre symtomatic even before they left on their journey, this might be the reason for the high number.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,858 ✭✭✭Steve F


    Exactly so why be so negative.

    I actually don't think worldometers will be massively out. Plenty out their saying covid may have lost some of its aggression. All coronaviruses do eventually.

    Heard a virologist say pretty much the same thing a couple of days ago....loses potency over time.
    The only question is,how long will Covid19 take to lose potency??


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,460 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    Exactly so why be so negative.

    I actually don't think worldometers will be massively out. Plenty out their saying covid may have lost some of its aggression. All coronaviruses do eventually.

    They predict X deaths by a certain date, that date passes and their estimate is wrong, they then rejig it with a new figure by a new date, that's wrong and they adjust it.
    When you look at it, you assume they have been accurate up to this time, they haven't been.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,677 ✭✭✭Happydays2020


    Steve F wrote: »
    Heard a virologist say pretty much the same thing a couple of days ago....loses potency over time.
    The only question is,how long will Covid19 take to lose potency??

    Has it already?


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,858 ✭✭✭Steve F


    Has it already?

    I dunno.God,I would love to think it's weakening


  • Posts: 1,662 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Steve F wrote: »
    Heard a virologist say pretty much the same thing a couple of days ago....loses potency over time.
    The only question is,how long will Covid19 take to lose potency??

    I know. My own view is avoid as long as possible. Kick the can down the road. Eventually most if not all people will get covid. In general i think it is wise to avoid until less aggresive/better medicine. Others will disagree. Funny how doctors in at least 5 or 6 countries saying the same thing (weaker). We will probably only know gradually over time.


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 8,685 CMod ✭✭✭✭Sierra Oscar


    Has it already?

    Considering hospitalization rates are rapidly increasing in the likes of France and the UK it seems to suggest that no, it hasn't.


  • Posts: 1,662 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Wolf359f wrote: »
    They predict X deaths by a certain date, that date passes and their estimate is wrong, they then rejig it with a new figure by a new date, that's wrong and they adjust it.
    When you look at it, you assume they have been accurate up to this time, they haven't been.

    That's how projections work though.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,166 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    Has it already?

    No .


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,858 ✭✭✭Steve F


    I know. My own view is avoid as long as possible. Kick the can down the road. Eventually most if not all people will get covid. In general i think it is wise to avoid until less aggresive/better medicine. Others will disagree. Funny how doctors in at least 5 or 6 countries saying the same thing (weaker). We will probably only know gradually over time.

    Completely agree.
    I've had the feeling for a while that the powers that be are playing for time.
    Like a football team,time wasting waiting for the full-time whistle.
    Hoping the virus will lose strength


  • Posts: 1,662 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Considering hospitalization rates are rapidly increasing in the likes of France and the UK it seems to suggest that no, it hasn't.

    I love your certainty. Leo Varadkar is open to the idea it has weakened (hes a doctor) and a high ranking politician who has guided us through all this. Why are you so certain?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 524 ✭✭✭DevilsHaircut


    Goldengirl wrote: »
    My opinion was that many pubs that are not enforcing or complying with the whole food and distancing are causing this spread in Dublin....

    But that is the crux of the matter ...if pubs aren't complying , which quite a few in Dublin are not , and people are not telling contact tracers how they were rocking in Camden St a week ago , and the guards can't be arsed chasing down the pubs that are the problem , what hope have we with this ?

    And don't anyone come back to me and say that ALL pubs are compliant , because they are not !

    A significant proportion (just the ones that the Gardaí have found) are not compliant.

    The behaviour of restaurant-pubs may be part of the reason for NPHET's recommendation.

    After all, the restaurant-pubs demanded to be categorised as restaurants.

    Hence, their non-compliance could lead to the actual restaurants being closed.


    https://twitter.com/Independent_ie/status/1298677847649857536


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,457 ✭✭✭Deeper Blue


    It must be very nauseating and embarrassing being so wrong for so long.
    There's plenty of time to learn.

    A bit rich coming from someone that's posted fake tweets in the past.

    Last reply you'll get from me :)


  • Posts: 1,662 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Has it already?

    Leo thinks it might have. He mentioned it yesterday.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,460 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    Steve F wrote: »
    Heard a virologist say pretty much the same thing a couple of days ago....loses potency over time.
    The only question is,how long will Covid19 take to lose potency??

    The only reason for lower deaths so far in Europe is the vulnerable can/are still be being protected.
    Israel's second wave killed nearly 3x as much as the first.
    Australia 7x as many deaths as their first wave.

    The loosing potency argument I don't get. There's now a delay due to better testing between new cases and deaths.
    We had ~2900 cases in August and 4 Deaths
    September so far ~2800 cases and 14 Deaths so far


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,342 ✭✭✭CalamariFritti


    Goldengirl wrote: »
    Yes it is probably very sickening for people to realise that all the time they were arguing that the virus was gone, weakening non existent and just flu bro , was just a crock of sxxx, and the others were right and there is a second wave , alright ?

    But do you know what's even more sickening , that there is a second wave . No one wins here .

    I dont think there is a 2nd wave. Its the same wave with a lockdown dent in it. I also dont think its weakening, its just a numbers game.


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 8,685 CMod ✭✭✭✭Sierra Oscar


    I love your certainty. Leo Varadkar is open to the idea it has weakened (hes a doctor) and a high ranking politician who has guided us through all this. Why are you so certain?

    I'm not certain. Just pointing out that the narrative that it isn't serious any more because the number of people being hospitalized is low is starting to look dubious in France and the UK considering their numbers are rapidly climbing.

    Let's see what our numbers are like in two weeks time.
    I dont think there is a 2nd wave. Its the same wave with a lockdown dent in it. I also dont think its weakening, its just a numbers game.

    Your post is spot on. The problem is we already know that uncontrollable spread brought our health system to breaking point, requiring a lockdown. The attitude that we can just let things unfold as they are is a very risky gamble to take.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,460 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    That's how projections work though.
    If I project a million deaths by the end of the month and there's only 20, I adjust my prediction to state I predicted 20 deaths this month, but there will be a million next month.... that's not a prediction.


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,690 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    A significant proportion (just the ones that the Gardaí have found) are not compliant.

    The behaviour of restaurant-pubs may be part of the reason for NPHET's recommendation.

    After all, the restaurant-pubs demanded to be categorised as restaurants.

    Hence, their non-compliance could lead to the actual restaurants being closed.


    https://twitter.com/Independent_ie/status/1298677847649857536

    135 out of how many?

    Anywhere I've been are rigid with guidelines tbh


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,460 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    A significant proportion (just the ones that the Gardaí have found) are not compliant.

    The behaviour of restaurant-pubs may be part of the reason for NPHET's recommendation.

    After all, the restaurant-pubs demanded to be categorised as restaurants.

    Hence, their non-compliance could lead to the actual restaurants being closed.


    https://twitter.com/Independent_ie/status/1298677847649857536

    Question is.... Pubs that reopened on a restaurant licence, if they loose that licence, do they still have a valid pub licence?
    Can they have 2 licences, independent from each other and can risk loosing one?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,342 ✭✭✭CalamariFritti


    I'm not certain. Just pointing out that the narrative that it isn't serious any more because the number of people being hospitalized is low is starting to look dubious in France and the UK considering their numbers are rapidly climbing.

    Let's see what our numbers are like in two weeks time.



    Your post is spot on. The problem is we already know that uncontrollable spread brought our health system to breaking point, requiring a lockdown. The attitude that we can just let things unfold as they are is a very risky gamble to take.

    Agreed so maybe the way to go is controllable spread and to me it sounds that's what we are effectively doing anyway. The question is what threshold of hospital/icu is controllable.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,858 ✭✭✭Steve F


    Agreed so maybe the way to go is controllable spread and to me it sounds that's what we are effectively doing anyway. The question is what threshold of hospital/icu is controllable.

    Risky....


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,513 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    So for example people in Shankill or any other border area in Dublin can't go into a restaurant if this comes to pass in their local area but they can hop onto a dart or a bus and head into Bray for example and have a meal and a few drinks.

    Absolutely no logic to this, close the controlled environment to stop house gatherings.... because that makes loads of sense

    Yes, you found a loophole :rolleyes:

    What exactly do you expect them to do,close everything or close nothing? A line has to be drawn somewhere. I don't condone the hospitality closure in Dublin but obviously Dublin is the problem so if it's going to close anywhere it will be inside that border. The entire city seems to be experiencing issues with infections rates so I don't think restrictions could be any more localised realistically.

    For all the talk about excessive government influence some people seem to think these restrictions have to be spoonfed to us. The general message of the 'guidelines' are clear, don't be travelling to pubs outside Dublin , think it's pretty obvious. They're not going to sit at checkpoints out of Dublin to make sure you're doing as youre told, youre an adult who they hope will demonstrate the decency and responsibility they are asking of you.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,153 ✭✭✭Jinglejangle69


    I'm not certain. Just pointing out that the narrative that it isn't serious any more because the number of people being hospitalized is low is starting to look dubious in France and the UK considering their numbers are rapidly climbing.

    Let's see what our numbers are like in two weeks time.



    Your post is spot on. The problem is we already know that uncontrollable spread brought our health system to breaking point, requiring a lockdown. The attitude that we can just let things unfold as they are is a very risky gamble to take.

    Our health system never came close to breaking point.


This discussion has been closed.
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