How will schools be able to go back in September? (Continued)

khalessi · 16-09-2020 09:48PM

Will Yam wrote: »

So we are relying on anonymous sources for data for public policy?

we are relying on people sending in their HSE letters to a site to give us information the government should be giving us.

Sure we have you giving us random stats which are just as reliable or not

16-09-2020 09:51PM

downthemiddle wrote: »

Is that not a coincidence? Two unlinked cases in the same school coming to light in the same day. There is no mathematical equation that would guarantee that.

Yes there is.

In simple terms if there are 300 cases and 3000 schools there is a 1:10 chance of a school having a case.
The odds of a school having two cases are 1:100.

So for any given school the odds of having two random cases are 1:100. But there are 3000 schools, each with a 1:100 chance, so it’s pretty inevitable it will happen somewhere. Would type of the formula but it’s a pain in the arse on the phone.

Also, cases are not random, in that an area with a case is more likely to have multiple thus reducing the odds for that area

Will Yam · 16-09-2020 09:51PM

Purplewaters wrote: »

there is also an alert page on Facebook with all the hse letters posted. Do you actually think there isn't 100? Chances are it's a lot more actaully.

It may be. But if any of those refer to cases identified in August, that’s gone.

It’s what the current situation is what matters.

So saying that there are 100 schools with a problem, when the current figure is 50%/25%/10%/1% of that is wrong. It’s scaremongering.

Will Yam · 16-09-2020 09:52PM

khalessi wrote: »

we are relying on people sending in their HSE letters to a site to give us information the government should be giving us.

Sure we have you giving us random stats which are just as reliable or not

I just don’t believe amateurs with an ax to grind. Sorry.

khalessi · 16-09-2020 09:53PM

Will Yam wrote: »

I just don’t believe amateurs with an ax to grind. Sorry.

WHat axe is there to grind?

and sure you are an amateur yourself

16-09-2020 09:54PM

Purplewaters wrote: »

there is also an alert page on Facebook with all the hse letters posted. Do you actually think there isn't 100? Chances are it's a lot more actaully.

Is anyone documenting the schools that have isolated for 2 weeks and are now back?

Will Yam · 16-09-2020 09:57PM

khalessi wrote: »

WHat axe is there to grind?

and sure you are an amateur yourself

True.

But I don’t go round quoting makey uppy figures from someone’s Facebook page.

And nobody, nobody can tell me how many live cases we have in schools today.

The scaremongers keep quoting figures which include figures from last month which are now largely irrelevant but it suits their purposes because the figures are falsely inflated.

Purplewaters · 16-09-2020 09:57PM

Will Yam wrote: »

It may be. But if any of those refer to cases identified in August, that’s gone.

It’s what the current situation is what matters.

So saying that there are 100 schools with a problem, when the current figure is 50%/25%/10%/1% of that is wrong. It’s scaremongering.

Fergal bowers posted the outbreaks and they're all still considered open. The covid school document tracks exact locations and has 113 as today's total. Yeah I'd rather the government tell us but they're too busy hoping that we are all so dumb that we will think its not happening once the media dont report it.

Will Yam · 16-09-2020 09:58PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Is anyone documenting the schools that have isolated for 2 weeks and are now back?

Very good question.

But that wouldn’t suit the scaremongers agenda.

Will Yam · 16-09-2020 09:59PM

Purplewaters wrote: »

Fergal bowers posted the outbreaks and they're all still considered open. The covid school document tracks exact locations and has 113 as today's total. Yeah I'd rather the government tell us but they're too busy hoping that we are all so dumb that we will think its not happening once the media dont report it.

But how can cases more than 2 weeks be open?

Purplewaters · 16-09-2020 10:01PM

Will Yam wrote: »

True.

But I don’t go round quoting makey uppy figures from someone’s Facebook page.

And nobody, nobody can tell me how many live cases we have in schools today.

The scaremongers keep quoting figures which include figures from last month which are now largely irrelevant but it suits their purposes because the figures are falsely inflated.

live cases? They're open max 3 weeks and every case has to isolate. Anyway in 3 weeks 113 schools have been affected with 13 outbreaks. But if we all just have one household to visit our houses then it will all be OK. I have to say the people who argue for the government keeping schools open even in stage 5 etc. What is your argument? Are you parents of kids who don't want them home or random people who have an opinion about something that you've little knowledge of and wont affect you? Trying to figure out what the counter argument agenda is. Parentd want kids in school but safely so I get their stance. Teachers want the same.

downthemiddle · 16-09-2020 10:02PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Yes there is.

In simple terms if there are 300 cases and 3000 schools there is a 1:10 chance of a school having a case.
The odds of a school having two cases are 1:100.

So for any given school the odds of having two random cases are 1:100. But there are 3000 schools, each with a 1:100 chance, so it’s pretty inevitable it will happen somewhere. Would type of the formula but it’s a pain in the arse on the phone.

Also, cases are not random, in that an area with a case is more likely to have multiple thus reducing the odds for that area

There are 4000 schools with varying enrolments from 10 to 2000 with approximately 1000000 pupils attending school across a population of 4.9 million.
Your calculations are a little simple.

khalessi · 16-09-2020 10:02PM

Will Yam wrote: »

True.

But I don’t go round quoting makey uppy figures from someone’s Facebook page.

And nobody, nobody can tell me how many live cases we have in schools today.

The scaremongers keep quoting figures which include figures from last month which are now largely irrelevant but it suits their purposes because the figures are falsely inflated.

That is the problem.
No can tell you because the officials won't.
People want to know and they arent being trusted with the information.
Instead the people are putting the information together and trying to get it right. THese people like yourself are trying to give correct figures in the absence of official information

THe fact that 2 separate lists are being made one on twitter and one on FB and the data matches following being validated means they are trying to do it properly and can be used to validate each other

Purplewaters · 16-09-2020 10:03PM

Will Yam wrote: »

But how can cases more than 2 weeks the

So ourbreaks are definitely as open aka ongoing or closed. These are all classed as open. Aka ongoing.

Purplewaters · 16-09-2020 10:05PM

khalessi wrote: »

That is the problem.
No can tell you because the officials won't.
People want to know and they arent being trusted with the information.
Instead the people are putting the information together and trying to get it right. THese people like yourself are trying to give correct figures in the absence of official information

THe fact that 2 separate lists are being made one on twitter and one on FB and the data matches following being validated means they are trying to do it properly and can be used to validate each other

I think it's great. The goverment seem to think we can only know things on their terms on need to know basis that is mostly founded on us all going to work and doing what we're told even if it makes no sense. Love to see people asking questions in the interest of safety.

khalessi · 16-09-2020 10:05PM

Will Yam wrote: »

But how can cases more than 2 weeks be open?

FIrstly it depends on when the kids go back and whether there has been a further outbreak and also these lists are a few days old give them time to get uptodate and knock stuff off the lists.

downthemiddle · 16-09-2020 10:05PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Is anyone documenting the schools that have isolated for 2 weeks and are now back?

Using a simple mathematical calculation , based on the fact that the first case was reported on September 1st, one case meets your criteria. The good news is that there will be a second such case tomorrow.

khalessi · 16-09-2020 10:07PM

Purplewaters wrote: »

I think it's great. The goverment seem to think we can only know things on their terms on need to know basis that is mostly founded on us all going to work and doing what we're told even if it makes no sense. Love to see people asking questions in the interest of safety.

FF still think they are in 1940s Ireland and they can feed the public any sh*t they want. They forget that we have the tech and the interest to collate info

16-09-2020 10:12PM

downthemiddle wrote: »

There are 4000 schools with varying enrolments from 10 to 2000 with approximately 1000000 pupils attending school across a population of 4.9 million.
Your calculations are a little simple.

They were simplified for illustrative purposes but the ponInt still stands. 254 cases in 4000 school, 1 in 250 chance of any given school having two cases, but there are 4000 schools, therefore 4000 opportunities for a 1 in 250 chance to occur etc etc etc. Plus they are not random, increasing the probability further.

It’s like the lotto. The odds of winning for any individual are so small as to be virtually certain they won’t win. But it’s also almost certain that at least once every few weeks someone will win. That’s probability, making the almost impossible almost a certainty.

wirelessdude01 · 16-09-2020 10:13PM

Also they seem to forget that it's very easy for information to become public due to smart phones and the internet. The idea that information can for want of a better word be 'hidden' is utter nonsense.

wirelessdude01 · 16-09-2020 10:16PM

At least 3 and possibly 4 of the current outbreaks are in one town in Louth.

Paddy1234 · 16-09-2020 10:41PM

Hi

Child tested negative for Covid-19 but still has a bit of a cough. Does anyone know if can now go back to school? Cough could linger for a couple of weeks.

Queried · 16-09-2020 10:50PM

Paddy1234 wrote: »

Hi

Child tested negative for Covid-19 but still has a bit of a cough. Does anyone know if can now go back to school? Cough could linger for a couple of weeks.

Hey Paddy,

Link below for info from HSE website:
https://www2.hse.ie/conditions/coronavirus/if-your-child-has-symptoms.html#negative

Glad to hear your child got a negative result!

PowerToWait · 16-09-2020 11:17PM

Deleted User wrote: »

They were simplified for illustrative purposes but the ponInt still stands. 254 cases in 4000 school, 1 in 250 chance of any given school having two cases, but there are 4000 schools, therefore 4000 opportunities for a 1 in 250 chance to occur etc etc etc. Plus they are not random, increasing the probability further.

It’s like the lotto. The odds of winning for any individual are so small as to be virtually certain they won’t win. But it’s also almost certain that at least once every few weeks someone will win. That’s probability, making the almost impossible almost a certainty.

I am really struggling with this idea, which you so staunchly defend, that this hyper-contagious virus cannot spread in small, crowded, poorly ventilated spaces.

16-09-2020 11:33PM

PowerToWait wrote: »

I am really struggling with this idea, which you so staunchly defend, that this hyper-contagious virus cannot spread in small, crowded, poorly ventilated spaces.

There’s your issue, it’s not what I contend at all.

What I contend is that it is not a riskier environment than anywhere else that people gather, and it’s a vital service that we must maintain, as important as healthcare. To protect schools we don’t keep children home, we deal with the increasing rate of outbreak in the communities that schools are based in, including isolating classes and schools where appropriate.

Also the rush to document schools that have had cases is in part developing a story that schools are accelerating the spread, when the evidence is that schools are following the spread.

vid36 · 17-09-2020 12:37AM

Deleted User wrote: »

There’s your issue, it’s not what I contend at all.

What I contend is that it is not a riskier environment than anywhere else that people gather, and it’s a vital service that we must maintain, as important as healthcare. To protect schools we don’t keep children home, we deal with the increasing rate of outbreak in the communities that schools are based in, including isolating classes and schools where appropriate.

Also the rush to document schools that have had cases is in part developing a story that schools are accelerating the spread, when the evidence is that schools are following the spread.

Schools are very important but they are not more important than vulnerable peoples lives.No way would countries such as South Korea, Australia etc allow schools to operate in person with the infection levels we are currently seeing in Dublin and maybe we should try to copy strategies that actually work.

17-09-2020 06:18AM

vid36 wrote: »

Schools are very important but they are not more important than vulnerable peoples lives.No way would countries such as South Korea, Australia etc allow schools to operate in person with the infection levels we are currently seeing in Dublin and maybe we should try to copy strategies that actually work.

South Korea and Australia send schools home on a localised basis. Are we at the level yet that warrants that for Dublin. I don’t believe so, yet, but it’s a debate worth having, and if it was to happen, a stipulation along the lines of “schools in Dublin north central to switch to remote and children living in that area travelling to schools elsewhere to remain home for two weeks”. Control the high impact areas, not the schools in and of themselves

combat14 · 17-09-2020 06:52AM

As Dublin faces 3 weeks lockdown - Irish Times today

Coronavirus: ‘More concern now than any time since April ’ - health officials warn

Cases of Covid-19 are now growing exponentially and every citizen in the State must take immediate action to reduce their contacts or it will not be possible to get the pandemic back under control, Prof Philip Nolan has warned.

And all schools/ colleges with thousands mingling will be kept open

It's only mid September now, where is the plan, resources and training for online learning if things take a turn for a worse during the winter which they very well may do ...??

The chan chan man · 17-09-2020 06:56AM

The huge increase in numbers has coincided with the schools opening... Are they not willing to accept that as an issue?

Purplewaters · 17-09-2020 07:13AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

South Korea and Australia send schools home on a localised basis. Are we at the level yet that warrants that for Dublin. I don’t believe so, yet, but it’s a debate worth having, and if it was to happen, a stipulation along the lines of “schools in Dublin north central to switch to remote and children living in that area travelling to schools elsewhere to remain home for two weeks”. Control the high impact areas, not the schools in and of themselves

Pretty sure our numbers are worse than Melbourne who are still on a strict lockdown. .They have similar population to us too.

How will schools be able to go back in September? (Continued)

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