Covid 19 Part XXIII-33,444 in ROI(1,792 deaths) 9,541 in NI(577 deaths)(22/09)Read OP

Renjit · 16-09-2020 01:27PM

Is this the arrival of second wave or are we still in first wave?

16-09-2020 01:30PM

Arghus wrote: »

The current explainer away is ICU numbers aren't increasing that fast.

Soon enough it'll be deaths are still pretty low.

Once that's not a credible argument anymore we'll be told things aren't that bad, sure, March was worse.

The goalposts of concern are in a constant state of motion from some voices in here. Here's the comprehensive list of reasons not to worry, most recent denial of the facts first:

ICU numbers aren't increasing.

Previous to that it was hospital admissions aren't increasing.

Previous to that it was community spread isn't growing.

Previous to that it was it's only clusters :tracking and tracing will get them all.

Previous to that it was it's just meatplants: our brilliant tracking and tracing will get them all.

Previous to that it was the positivity rate hasn't increased.

Previous to that it was they are doing way more tests now.

Previous to that it was more cases are to be expected now that restrictions have been eased, we shouldn't worry until we see 10/20/50/100 cases - number of stated concern will increase elastically until we reach the argument that cases are only increasing because there's more testing being done.

What's your plan?

People say the above to give themselves hope and to carry on until this is over. Nobody really knows what to do in the face of an unprecadented pandemic. All of us including government's are trying to muddle through this.

manniot2 · 16-09-2020 01:30PM

'we need to protect the health service' from what, actually treating people?

16-09-2020 01:31PM

caveat emptor wrote: »

windup. :pac: At least I don't have to disprove some minimalist argument like usual.

If only your scientific analysis was a good as your correcting a minor grammatical errors.

You asked from prove of nasal vs nasopharyngeal the other day.
I provided.
You then went quiet.

UK going for the see no evil hear no evil approach.

What phase to we have to be in to adopt that.

If we don't test people there'll be no cases at all.

https://twitter.com/BBCNWT/status/1305846608446324736?s=20

I believe my last comment on that subject was that the NPHET began assessing the use of Nasal tests in kids a month ago, so believe would have weighed up risks and benefits. If I recall, I may also has queried was there data of the effectiveness of the test in kids specifically, which I could not find, so if I missed your reply on that, I apologise.

And of course my post was a windup, you practically asked me to do it.

Roger_007 · 16-09-2020 01:33PM

manniot2 wrote: »

Absolutely incredible Dr Feeney forced to resign for his medical opinions. welcome to North Korea

...Or welcome to 1984........(see what I did there).

pc7 · 16-09-2020 01:33PM

So if Dublin goes to level 3 and Colleges are back in a few weeks, most places 1st years will be on campus to start with, they won't be allowed home (if from outside dublin). As if that is going to happen, its just going to get worse. I really was positive during the Summer that we were on top of things, but it really is looking like its going one way at the minute.

ChikiChiki · 16-09-2020 01:34PM

manniot2 wrote: »

'we need to protect the health service' from what, actually treating people?

Its coming up to flu season where the health service typically becomes overwhelmed. Add Covid on top of that and you get the picture.

Every winter for the over the past decade there has been a massive undersupply of hospital beds.

16-09-2020 01:35PM

is_that_so wrote: »

Seems the brewer is on holiday this week so it's back to Ron and Phillo later!

I can wait.

*clutches knees while rocking back and forth*

TonyMaloney · 16-09-2020 01:36PM

Roger_007 wrote: »

...Or wellcome to 1984........(see what I did there).

by far the most depressing and scary part of 1984 is when Winston is forced to resign with full pension

is_that_so · 16-09-2020 01:38PM

manniot2 wrote: »

Absolutely incredible Dr Feeney forced to resign for his medical opinions. welcome to North Korea

Nah, there he'd just be disappeared. More like welcome to the world of the intemperate ego! Medics and academics are not known for their tolerance of views they view as stupid.

landofthetree · 16-09-2020 01:39PM

https://mobile.twitter.com/danobrien20/status/1306210091742490626

pc7 · 16-09-2020 01:39PM

ChikiChiki wrote: »

Its coming up to flu season where the health service typically becomes overwhelmed. Add Covid on top of that and you get the picture.

Every winter for the over the past decade there has been a massive undersupply of hospital beds.

Hopefully if we follow Oz we could escape with a light flu with thanks to vaccinations, social distancing etc.

Arghus · 16-09-2020 01:41PM

Deleted User wrote: »

What's your plan?

People say the above to give themselves hope and to carry on until this is over. Nobody really knows what to do in the face of an unprecadented pandemic. All of us including government's are trying to muddle through this.

I make no presumptions to know what to do, but I presume that Dublin will go to level three soon enough - and eventually some of the other counties will too. Hopefully those relatively strictish measures will eventually curtail some of the spread, which is no guarantee - but we certainly have to hope. But I fully expect things to get worse before they get better.

I totally understand people wanting to hope, it's very necessary - but there's a difference between hope and delusion. And especially so the delusion in which one never accepts facts that are staring right at you and who views everyone with a dissenting opinion as borderline hysterical.

Oranage2 · 16-09-2020 01:47PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I can wait.

*clutches knees while rocking back and forth*

Essential worker, can't believe he got time off, he doesn't know how many button twitchers depend on him

is_that_so · 16-09-2020 01:47PM

Arghus wrote: »

I make no presumptions to know what to do, but I presume that Dublin will go to level three soon enough - and eventually some of the other counties will too. Hopefully those relatively strictish measures will eventually curtail some of the spread, which is no guarantee - but we certainly have to hope. But I fully expect things to get worse before they get better.

I totally understand people wanting to hope, it's very necessary - but there's a difference between hope and delusion. And especially so the delusion in which one never accepts facts that are staring right at you and who views everyone with a dissenting opinion as borderline hysterical.

Which of course you didn't do in your post! Data tells different stories to different people.

caveat emptor · 16-09-2020 01:49PM

Deleted User wrote: »

I believe my last comment on that subject was that the NPHET began assessing the use of Nasal tests in kids a month ago, so believe would have weighed up risks and benefits. If I recall, I may also has queried was there data of the effectiveness of the test in kids specifically, which I could not find, so if I missed your reply on that, I apologise.

And of course my post was a windup, you practically asked me to do it.

No worries. We clearly don't want it to be found in schools between the not informing, not testing and not sending home.

political analyst · 16-09-2020 01:50PM

Why has the government not been consistent on advice about masks from the start of this crisis?

By the way, readers, please, please, put aside whatever you think of John McGuirk, the author of this article, or of Gript and address the point that he has made.

https://gript.ie/angry-mob-to-2fm-no-you-cant-discuss-face-masks/?fbclid=IwAR3DcjK1tBBaRYBxVrqqD3Lbp8FSEtGxjSSrjNXun4k9IWbXPcGEx2ZwM8E

My own position from the start of the pandemic has been to wear a facemask when in a public area. When the Government was telling people not to wear a facemask, yours truly was wearing a facemask. When the official advice was that facemasks might actually spread the virus, yours truly was wearing a facemask. Now that the advice is that they should be compulsory, yep, I’m still wearing a facemask.

Not because I have any great desire to “protect others”, or anything like that, mind you. Simply because I’d rather not catch Covid, and wearing a mask into a shop makes me feel a little safer. If It didn’t, or if the mask was uncomfortable and claustrophobic, I’d take it off.

Eod100 · 16-09-2020 01:59PM

political analyst wrote: »

Why has the government not been consistent on advice about masks from the start of this crisis?

By the way, readers, please, please, put aside whatever you think of John McGuirk, the author of this article, or of Gript and address the point that he has made.

https://gript.ie/angry-mob-to-2fm-no-you-cant-discuss-face-masks/?fbclid=IwAR3DcjK1tBBaRYBxVrqqD3Lbp8FSEtGxjSSrjNXun4k9IWbXPcGEx2ZwM8E

Maybe because the science evolved.There will always inevitably inconsistency in response in middle of global pandemic. There's not a whole lot to it tbh.

polesheep · 16-09-2020 02:01PM

Boggles wrote: »

"Young people" don't live in a vacuum.

IF we shoot in the middle of Nolans model of 2500 infections a day. That is 17500 infections a week, if we pretend for a second that we can achieve 100,000 tests.

That's a 17.5% positivity rate. You are probably missing the same again in cases.

You have lost control of the virus, it's back to stay at home orders, 5km for excerise.

It will take weeks for those sort of levels to plateau and start to decrease.

Older/vulnerable people are minding themselves and the nursing/care homes are now protected. As I said, positive people who are not ill are not an issue.

stephenjmcd · 16-09-2020 02:01PM

landofthetree wrote: »

https://mobile.twitter.com/danobrien20/status/1306210091742490626

Seems fairly accurate. Family in other EU countries say we're in a better position than them but Ireland just looks like complete panic. Life isn't normal where they live but its sure better than here.

Then again we've a healthcare system that can't handle a normal winter.

Eod100 · 16-09-2020 02:03PM

Probably a silly question and is hypothetical but say you're contact traced as a close contact of a confirmed case, do you restrict your movements from 14 days the last time you saw them, the date they were referred for a test or the date they got their results?

Assumed from last time you saw them but haven't seen anything definitive spelling it out.

Boggles · 16-09-2020 02:05PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

"He said Nphet has been offering "top class" scientific, medical and public health advice but added that "by their own admission" they "don't necessarily understand how the economy works".

He said they don't know how schools run and restaurants and stadiums work.

Yeah, I have often laid awake at night wondering how a restaurant works.

I came to the conclusion, that you sit down, order food, you are given your food you eat it, pay and leave.

Obviously I am wrong.

NEPHET surely have never been to a school, restaurant or stadium. That would be madness.

Yes we need an extra layer of red tape to explain to the cabinet how these things work.

Boggles · 16-09-2020 02:08PM

polesheep wrote: »

Older/vulnerable people are minding themselves and the nursing/care homes are now protected.

Well to an extent, it is creeping back into care homes and reaching the vulnerable.

This will increase as the instances of the virus increase in the community.

Older people do not live a vacuum no more than younger people do.

UsBus · 16-09-2020 02:09PM

Have the early beers ran out for good..?

John O.Groats · 16-09-2020 02:09PM

is_that_so wrote: »

Which of course you didn't do in your post! Data tells different stories to different people.

You are absolutely correct. No hysteria whatsoever in anything Arghus posts. One of the most measured posters on this forum.

Arghus · 16-09-2020 02:09PM

Fair play to John McGurk in making it clear that he doesn't wear a mask to protect others, just himself - just to reassure his readers that what could be viewed as a somewhat empathetic and thoughtful gesture is in fact unambiguously selfish after all. Just in case they thought he might be going soft.

Arghus · 16-09-2020 02:13PM

Maybe that's how the debate needs to be re-framed to get the selfish on board: wear a mask, fck the rest of these cunts.

stephenjmcd · 16-09-2020 02:13PM

The reason I would think why economic concerns are suddenly alot higher on the agenda
https://twitter.com/SeanDefoe/status/1306218569315872769?s=19

mandrake04 · 16-09-2020 02:14PM

Arghus wrote: »

The current explainer away is ICU numbers aren't increasing that fast.

Soon enough it'll be deaths are still pretty low.

Once that's not a credible argument anymore we'll be told things aren't that bad, sure, March was worse.

The goalposts of concern are in a constant state of motion from some voices in here. Here's the comprehensive list of reasons not to worry, most recent denial of the facts first:

ICU numbers aren't increasing.

Previous to that it was hospital admissions aren't increasing.

Previous to that it was community spread isn't growing.

Previous to that it was it's only clusters - tracking and tracing will get them all.

Previous to that it was it's just meatplants: our brilliant tracking and tracing will get them all.

Previous to that it was the positivity rate hasn't increased.

Previous to that it was they are doing way more tests now.

Previous to that it was more cases are to be expected now that restrictions have been eased, we shouldn't worry until we see 10/20/50/100 cases - number of stated concern will increase elastically until we reach the argument that cases are only increasing because there's more testing being done.

There is hard ceiling to domestic testing due finite instruments in the country, once you go over your ceiling you are going have backlogs unless you get help from outside.

There is also beginning to be a shortage of plasticware stuff like tips, tip trays, processing wells and processing Plates. The plastic Assy packs. There is a huge demand for testing around the world, every country has got additional instrumentation and running it at even more capacity than March/April. The factories cant make stuff fast enough. Europe is now indicating possible Airport testing rather than quarantine, this is going eat into supply for clinical diagnosis which might prove tricky coming into winter.

If cases rises and you are unable to test healthcare workers for their own and patient safety then that's going be an issue, you have people in hospital and they have to be tested before being discharged etc.

At the moment deaths are low, fair enough the tards say this virus is only dangerous to the elderly, the overweight and people with other conditions like Diabetes, COPD etc...in some strange way they think this is acceptable. OK yes 90% cases are mild but they still affect a lot of day to day living.

The problem is once you have healthcare workers and frontline staff being infected in droves they have to take 2 weeks off to recover....same for the Garda, firemen etc. It might be mild illness but it affects the whole fabric of society.

People say we must learn to live with covid, learning to live with it.. is learning to live tough restrictions otherwise you cant control it.

Its whole existence is to live in us.. not with us and its extremely good at that.

ixoy · 16-09-2020 02:18PM

Boggles wrote: »

NEPHET surely have never been to a school, restaurant or stadium. That would be madness.

For all your snark, I imagine it's the logistics they might not be aware of or how practical it is. Their advice could be "2m gap between tables!" but need to be told in turn that that's not viable so let's work out an interim plan. Let's also see how we can, if possible, incorporate guidelines around entering/exiting a class from a logistics perspective, how do you stagger lunch breaks, what's a policy on managing ill kids, and so on. A working group should be there to get that balance.

Covid 19 Part XXIII-33,444 in ROI(1,792 deaths) 9,541 in NI(577 deaths)(22/09)Read OP

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