Covid 19 Part XXIII-33,444 in ROI(1,792 deaths) 9,541 in NI(577 deaths)(22/09)Read OP

delly · 14-09-2020 07:29PM

Louth was next to Dublin in numbers today, trying to see if it's related to a specific cluster or factory. Any inputs from those in the know?

ACitizenErased · 14-09-2020 07:31PM

delly wrote: »

Louth was next to Dublin in numbers today, trying to see if it's related to a specific cluster or factory. Any inputs from those in the know?

Realistically Louth and Meath will start seeing offshoots of cases from Dublin due to the volume there.

prunudo · 14-09-2020 07:32PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

No surprise. Some in Dublin are being sent to Wicklow town

Just on that, I presume the cases are assigned to the address of the testee and not the location of the test centre.

caveat emptor · 14-09-2020 07:33PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Any data on the reduced sensitivity of the test when using nasal swabs instead of nasopharyngeal in kids? Any estimate on the differences on missed diagnosis due to the more inaccurate test versus improved take up on the test from parents unsure of putting their kids through the more intrusive test?
The NVRL announced they were examining this over a month ago, so it’s not just a spur of the moment this based on no research

Hang on I'll just go back into my cave. Yes I have read that they are different.
Otherwise we'd all get nasal swabs. Why would they need to tickle our tonsils, unless they are sadists.

Would be great if they were as accurate. Lower case numbers and happy parents are a win win for the government.

Joking aside. If mine were referred for a swab I'd go but what does it change for the treatment? Chances are it'll be negative or mild disease and there's no treatment. It'll 100% be uncomftable for the child.

I refused a doctor when they wanted to test my child's blood once. It was to test for a rare condition. I suspected they wanted to allow the junior doctor to practice taking bloods. There was less than 1 % chance he had it but there was 100% chance the blood test would hurt him so I didn't consent. He was fine.

Testing of paired midturbinate (MT) nasal and nasopharyngeal (NP) swabs, collected by trained personnel from 40 patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), showed that more NP (76/95 [80%]) than MT swabs tested positive (61/95 [64%]) (P = .02). Among samples collected a week after study enrollment, fewer MT than NP samples were positive (45% vs 76%; P = .001).

https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa882/5864592

stephenjmcd · 14-09-2020 07:34PM

prunudo wrote: »

Just on that, I presume the cases are assigned to the address of the testee and not the location of the test centre.

You'd imagine so. I presume everything is based on the details submitted by GP

Always_Running · 14-09-2020 07:42PM

Last 72hrs

726 positive swabs from 31933 tests carried out.

Cases reported last 3 days was 622.

Up to 104 cases left over that will likely be included in tomorrows giving another 200+ figure and again half of the cases will be from Dublin.

Dressoutlet · 14-09-2020 07:44PM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Hang on I'll just go back into my cave. Yes I have read that they are different.
Otherwise we'd all get nasal swabs. Why would they need to tickle our tonsils, unless they are sadists.

Would be great if they were as accurate. Lower case numbers and happy parents are a win win for the government.

Joking aside. If mine were referred for a swab I'd go but what does it change for the treatment? Chances are it'll be negative or mild disease and there's no treatment. It'll 100% be uncomftable for the child.

I refused a doctor when they wanted to test my child's blood once. It was to test for a rare condition. I suspected they wanted to allow the junior doctor to practice taking bloods. There was less than 1 % chance he had it but there was 100% chance the blood test would hurt him so I didn't consent. He was fine.

https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa882/5864592

Well allowing your child get tested will allow contact tracing to get in touch with close contacts and warn them which will then help theor close contacts should they test positive too. And the main one of all, the HSE cam inform the school who can inform the class, which will mean siblings who may be affected are tested and we don't end up with a huge outbreak in schools. My kids school have students with 4 5 and even 6 siblings.

wadacrack · 14-09-2020 07:51PM

https://twitter.com/SamuelMcConkey1/status/1305579552966676482

AnnieOaks · 14-09-2020 07:51PM

cameramonkey wrote: »

I was looking at the death rates and wondering will they follow the active case rates like earlier on in the year, the answer seems to be no. The death rate for what ever reason seems to be a fraction of what it was earlier in the pandemic. I know this is not scientific but here are some figures I was looking at earlier.

On march 23 there were 1114 active cases i Ireland.
22 days later on april 14 there were 41 deaths .
The deaths on that day were in line generally with the death rates of just under 50 per day around that time, there were some anomalies with 77 on April 20 and 216 on April 24.

August 4 as infection begin to rise again there are 1126 active cases
22 days later on Aug 26 there are 0 deaths. Again this is not an really an anomaly with only one death reported on each day on August 18,20 and 22 and no deaths being reported again until September 9.

So the good news from these numbers is that the virus is not as deadly as before

Or it’s just as deadly as before but, Hear me out here. It’s not reaching the elderly or people with autoimmune diseases or underlying conditions as they’re taking extra extra steps to not get it - by isolating themselves or cocooning - Also social distancing, hand hygiene, less places open fully. Businesses have implemented actions to try and prevent infections and the load after load of information about the virus compared to back in March when everyone was freaked out completely and didn’t know what was going on. This is why there is less deaths. I imagine the Majority of people getting it don’t really care about it (possibly younger people) and have been to parties and large gatherings, not wearing masks or using good hygiene etc etc. That is why we do not have as many deaths as the numbers go up. But as they go up it’s inevitable that deaths will follow. How many is not certain though.

tobefrank321 · 14-09-2020 07:51PM

cameramonkey wrote: »

So you think death rates will start to rise like before? When would you estimate that we will have around 50 per day deaths like in April? Two weeks?

At peak the positivity rate was ten times what it is today. Its possible we were only finding a fraction then. If the reality at peak was 5000 a day and the reality now is 500 cases a day then that seems to be reflected in ICU admissions - 10 per day at peak, 1 per day now.

Its likely only about 1 in 500 end up in ICU. If we keep the R0 low ICU should be a couple of people per day.

ICU seems to reflect case numbers probably more so than confirmed cases.

But theres also the lower age profile now.

I don't think we will see 50 dead per day again, at most we will see 10 per day deaths.

majcos · 14-09-2020 07:53PM

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

I thought all ROI hospitals were testing admissions

No. Not all hospitals are testing every admission. Routine testing for elective admissions for surgery and procedures are usually being tested. Emergency admissions are being triaged and tested according to contact history and symptoms. If another obvious reason for urgent admission and no contacts unwell, not necessarily tested.

majcos · 14-09-2020 07:59PM

AnnieOaks wrote: »

Or it’s just as deadly as before but, Here me out here. It’s not reaching the elderly or people with autoimmune diseases or underlying conditions as they’re taking extra extra steps to not get it - by isolating themselves or cocooning - Also social distancing, hand hygiene, less places open fully. Businesses have implemented actions to try and prevent infections and the load after load of information about the virus compared to back in March when everyone was freaked out completely and didn’t know what was going on. This is why there is less deaths. I imagine the Majority of people getting it don’t really care about it (possibly younger people) and have been to parties and large gatherings, not wearing masks or using good hygiene etc etc. That is why we do not have as many deaths as the numbers go up. But as they go up it’s inevitable that deaths will follow. How many is not certain though.

That’s definitely a factor. Those more vulnerable are being more careful so protected from contracting it and this will help to reduce the case fatality rate. Worry is with mild and asymptomatic cases rising of course, is that it will eventually reach the more vulnerable.

And by more vulnerable, I do not mean only those who might be expected to die in 2020 regardless but there are many vulnerable people who might still have a normal life expectancy and expectation of more decades of life.

landofthetree · 14-09-2020 08:01PM

Santy2015 · 14-09-2020 08:03PM

wadacrack wrote: »

https://twitter.com/SamuelMcConkey1/status/1305579552966676482

He needs to wazz off! Full of doom and gloom.

Eod100 · 14-09-2020 08:03PM

wadacrack wrote: »

https://twitter.com/SamuelMcConkey1/status/1305579552966676482

Is this based on there being no mitigating measures I wonder?

Santy2015 · 14-09-2020 08:06PM

Eod100 wrote: »

Is this based on there being no mitigating measures I wonder?

No, he’s just trying to keep himself relevant. We didn’t come close 2000 cases at peak

ceadaoin. · 14-09-2020 08:12PM

Seems like Ireland and europe is at the stage we were at here back in July. Cases were increasing, drastically in some areas, and testing was extremely backlogged due to demand. We have come through that now with minimal additional restrictions - masks were mandated and no food bars were shut down in the worse counties where I am. Oh and public schools went online but there are still thousands of private, religious and charter school kids doing in person learning.

Despite the large increase in cases (over 1000 a day in my state for a while) deaths did not rise to the level seen earlier in the year. Now they are practically begging people to get tests because the demand just isn't there. There must have been a huge number of undetected cases back then, way beyond what we are seeing now to translate to that many deaths.

It seems for this surge, the US is ahead of Europe, unlike the first one. I wonder if it will follow the same pattern there too?

BobbyMalone · 14-09-2020 08:17PM

wadacrack wrote: »

https://twitter.com/SamuelMcConkey1/status/1305579552966676482

If I'd been predicting between 80k and 120k deaths back in March, I'd be keeping my thoughts to myself for a fair while at least.

ACitizenErased · 14-09-2020 08:21PM

New article in the British Medical Journal has the IFR of COVID-19 at 0.26%, lower than the 0.6% initially predicted.

First, how deadly is covid-19? Initially, the estimated infection fatality ratio was high when polymerase chain reaction tests were used to detect cases, and the denominator of this calculation was low. With the development of antibody assays it’s now clear that infection spread is much wider, and fatality ratio estimates now range from 0.02% to 0.86%, with a median of 0.26%, similar to that for seasonal flu.

https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3410

Pinch of salt as the pre-print for that IFR hasn't been peer-reviewed yet.

GooglePlus · 14-09-2020 08:26PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

New article in the British Medical Journal has the IFR of COVID-19 at 0.26%, lower than the 0.6% initially predicted.

https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3410

Pinch of salt as the pre-print for that IFR hasn't been peer-reviewed yet.

Can it be compared to the flu death rate that was calculated in an open society as opposed to one locked down?

landofthetree · 14-09-2020 08:28PM

An encouraging graph.

Wolf359f · 14-09-2020 08:28PM

Santy2015 wrote: »

He needs to wazz off! Full of doom and gloom.

That's what 5k cases a day in Ireland looks like by the end of October.
Absolutely no way that's possible, crazy ****e been spewed by him.

ACitizenErased · 14-09-2020 08:29PM

landofthetree wrote: »

An encouraging graph.

Incredible to see how fast the initial peak accelerated. It must have been absolutely rampant in the community.

ACitizenErased · 14-09-2020 08:30PM

GooglePlus wrote: »

Can it be compared to the flu death rate that was calculated in an open society as opposed to one locked down?

Deaths as a percentage of infections are mutually exclusive from locking down

Jim_Hodge · 14-09-2020 08:30PM

ceadaoin. wrote: »

Seems like Ireland and europe is at the stage we were at here back in July. Cases were increasing, drastically in some areas, and testing was extremely backlogged due to demand. We have come through that now with minimal additional restrictions - masks were mandated and no food bars were shut down in the worse counties where I am. Oh and public schools went online but there are still thousands of private, religious and charter school kids doing in person learning.

Despite the large increase in cases (over 1000 a day in my state for a while) deaths did not rise to the level seen earlier in the year. Now they are practically begging people to get tests because the demand just isn't there. There must have been a huge number of undetected cases back then, way beyond what we are seeing now to translate to that many deaths.

It seems for this surge, the US is ahead of Europe, unlike the first one. I wonder if it will follow the same pattern there too?

I don't fully agree with much of that. Yes cases in Dublin are increasing but not drastically. Testing is not severely backlogged at all.
It's nothing like the US in July - look at the graphs. The US is still is a first surge working its way across the country. This second phase has to yet reach you. Deaths in the US may have reduced but they levelled out at what is still a high enough and persistent daily average.

stephenjmcd · 14-09-2020 08:32PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Incredible to see how fast the initial peak accelerated. It must have been absolutely rampant in the community.

Had to have been, we'll never really know but we had what 8-900 in hosptial at one point? Big indicator that it was rampant

s1ippy · 14-09-2020 08:34PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Can't be saying that on here!!!

Yeah, because it's false :rolleyes:

14-09-2020 08:36PM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Hang on I'll just go back into my cave. Yes I have read that they are different.
Otherwise we'd all get nasal swabs. Why would they need to tickle our tonsils, unless they are sadists.

Would be great if they were as accurate. Lower case numbers and happy parents are a win win for the government.

Joking aside. If mine were referred for a swab I'd go but what does it change for the treatment? Chances are it'll be negative or mild disease and there's no treatment. It'll 100% be uncomftable for the child.

I refused a doctor when they wanted to test my child's blood once. It was to test for a rare condition. I suspected they wanted to allow the junior doctor to practice taking bloods. There was less than 1 % chance he had it but there was 100% chance the blood test would hurt him so I didn't consent. He was fine.

https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa882/5864592

I am sure the NVRL weighed the risks and benefits. There is also research to indicate children may carry more virus in their noses than adults

MerlinSouthDub · 14-09-2020 08:37PM

Eod100 wrote: »

Is this based on there being no mitigating measures I wonder?

It's not based on anything scientific. It's pretty blatant scaremongering.

KrustyUCC · 14-09-2020 08:38PM

Wolf359f wrote: »

That's what 5k cases a day in Ireland looks like by the end of October.
Absolutely no way that's possible, crazy ****e been spewed by him.

He's only on about the cases being in Dublin as well

Mad stuff

Covid 19 Part XXIII-33,444 in ROI(1,792 deaths) 9,541 in NI(577 deaths)(22/09)Read OP

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