Covid 19 Part XXIII-33,444 in ROI(1,792 deaths) 9,541 in NI(577 deaths)(22/09)Read OP

caveat emptor · 13-09-2020 11:17AM

Onesea wrote: »

By the time the virus got to them we only knew it was circulating.
We can't control it. That's my belief.

But no matter what we say, right now things are looking good.

If you think things are looking good, I have to ask. Where can I get a pair of those rose tinted glasses?

It's looking good in New Zealand.

https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1305060638251769856?s=20

GooglePlus · 13-09-2020 11:19AM

growleaves wrote: »

Along with fish, mushrooms, natural light etc.

We're coming into a time of year where sunlight doesn't provide sufficient vitamin D and the amounts in fish etc. aren't enough. Everyone should be supplementing Vitamin D anyway, Covid 19 aside.

Oranage2 · 13-09-2020 11:20AM

caveat emptor wrote: »

If you think things are looking good, I have to ask. Where can I get a pair of those rose tinted glasses?

It's looking good in New Zealand.

https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1305060638251769856?s=20

That's gonna be a big kick in the teeth to the 'Zero Covid isn't possible'

I think we could have close to what New Zealand have if only we handled stage 3 better. Instead we're stuck in this limbo stage of will there or won't there be another lockdown

Jim_Hodge · 13-09-2020 11:23AM

Onesea wrote: »

By the time the virus got to them we only knew it was circulating.
We can't control it. That's my belief.

But no matter what we say, right now things are looking good.

If you think the current trajectory is looking good, and that represents even a small percentage of the population, then we're up the creek without a paddle.

Onesea · 13-09-2020 11:23AM

caveat emptor wrote: »

If you think things are looking good, I have to ask. Where can I get a pair of those rose tinted glasses?

It's looking good in New Zealand.

https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1305060638251769856?s=20

How many died in Ireland due to c19 in July August and September?

13-09-2020 11:23AM

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-real-covid-19-threat/amp?__twitter_impression=true

Onesea · 13-09-2020 11:25AM

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

If you think the current trajectory is looking good, and that represents even a small percentage of the population, then we're up the creek without a paddle.

You are the king of doom. You couldn't see a positve in this if it hit you in the mush

Happydays2020 · 13-09-2020 11:26AM

GooglePlus wrote: »

We're coming into a time of year where sunlight doesn't provide sufficient vitamin D and the amounts in fish etc. aren't enough. Everyone should be supplementing Vitamin D anyway, Covid 19 aside.

What do you recommend in terms of supplements?

Onesea · 13-09-2020 11:29AM

Happydays2020 wrote: »

What do you recommend in terms of supplements?

Animal pak..

GooglePlus · 13-09-2020 11:30AM

Happydays2020 wrote: »

What do you recommend in terms of supplements?

A lot of the pharmacy ones aren't very high at all.

https://www.myprotein.ie/sports-nutrition/vitamin-d3-softgels/10530530.html

360 there for less than 10 euro and they're pretty high at 2500iu. If you had a deficiency, which a lot of us do, you wouldn't do any harm taking two every morning.

petes · 13-09-2020 11:30AM

Onesea wrote: »

How many died in Ireland due to c19 in July August and September?

You don't really understand any of this, do you!

You are either that misguided or so far in denial your anxiety is projecting!

Van.Bosch · 13-09-2020 11:31AM

Onesea wrote: »

How many died in Ireland due to c19 in July August and September?

Too early to say, as we saw, June deaths were reported in August so July deaths might not be reported until later this month or next

13-09-2020 11:34AM

https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3374.full

Happydays2020 · 13-09-2020 11:36AM

GooglePlus wrote: »

A lot of the pharmacy ones aren't very high at all.

https://www.myprotein.ie/sports-nutrition/vitamin-d3-softgels/10530530.html

360 there for less than 10 euro and they're pretty high at 2500iu. If you had a deficiency, which a lot of us do, you wouldn't do any harm taking two every morning.

Thanks. Since home working I am getting out a lot less. And sunscreen when on holidays blocks the Vitamin D.

Away With The Fairies · 13-09-2020 11:42AM

Onesea wrote: »

You are the king of doom. You couldn't see a positve in this if it hit you in the mush

I think that poster has some positivity in him. Just because you don't agree with what he said.

majcos · 13-09-2020 11:45AM

CalamariFritti wrote: »

And the first thing that we are noticing is that the assumed hospitalisation and ICU rates of 15% and 5% - only repeated by the HSE yesterday - are of course not true. With the level of testing we're doing at the moment it looks more like 1.5% for hospitalisation and 0.02% or so for ICU admissions. And thats probably still not anywhere near the truth. It will take years of data collection to settle on more solid numbers

How did you calculate hospital admission rate and ICU admission rate? I cannot figure out where you got those numbers from.

Onesea · 13-09-2020 11:48AM

Too many fruit cakes here. I'm out

Funsterdelux · 13-09-2020 11:50AM

caveat emptor wrote: »

If you think things are looking good, I have to ask. Where can I get a pair of those rose tinted glasses?

It's looking good in New Zealand.

https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1305060638251769856?s=20

Those pesky New Zealanders are at it again

Non solum non ambulabit · 13-09-2020 11:52AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-real-covid-19-threat/amp?__twitter_impression=true

Totally agree with this. Need to readjust of thinking after 6 months of learnings. If we have learnt nothing then we have totally wasted the time we gave our Govt with all our actions and sacrifices since March.

Klonker · 13-09-2020 11:54AM

CalamariFritti wrote: »

I think what we're now seeing (same in France and in Spain, only they're further ahead) is a truer picture of the spread of this virus in the population .

When we only tested people with serious symptoms in March our case numbers were based on that. And our hospitalisation/ICU numbers and the rest of it too. We're now casting with much wider net. The test parameters are different and of course so are the results.

And the first thing that we are noticing is that the assumed hospitalisation and ICU rates of 15% and 5% - only repeated by the HSE yesterday - are of course not true. With the level of testing we're doing at the moment it looks more like 1.5% for hospitalisation and 0.02% or so for ICU admissions. And thats probably still not anywhere near the truth. It will take years of data collection to settle on more solid numbers.

Let me illustrate what I mean. And please just stay with it, the numbers are just for illustration, not claiming THESE are the numbers.

Lets say out of a 5000 people who had been exposed to the virus - 5000 potential positives - 100 have noticeable symptoms and out of those 100 people with symptoms 15 have symptoms so bad they need to go to a hospital.
In March we would have only tested those 100. And we would have arrived at that hospitalisation rate of 15%. Makes sense right? 100 cases and 15 in hospital. 15%.

Now that we're testing tracing contacts and that we're testing randomly we're catching a lot more of the other 4900 people as positives. Lets say with the wider testing we're now catching 1000 instead of 100. So of course we're noticing that hospitalisation rate isn't 15% but more like 1.5%. And the same goes for ICU admission rate and ultimately fatality rates.

The different test parameters give us a truer picture of the severity of this virus.

Which is not the same as saying that no one will die from it anymore or that this thing 'has weakened' or 'is over'. We're simply seeing it better. And we still haven't seen the total picture. Could easily be divide by another 2 or 5 or 10.

And I guess what people are saying is that now that we have better information we must adjust our threat assessment of the virus accordingly.

The sticky situation media and politicians find themselves in is how to communicate this to the people without becoming 'Trump' and without becoming unelectable. After all they were the same people who were telling us for months this is the deadliest thing ever and tens or hundreds of thousands might die. And they burnt billions and wrecked entire economies in the process. So they cant just turn around and say 'oops' we got it wrong, sorry about that. They need to find a way to come off it without losing face and keep up that narrative of 'there was no alternative'. Sadly this will keep us in that limbo for much longer and burn further billions.

Shouldnt be that difficult to say hey were know more now and its not as bad as we thought, but it seems it is.

Best post I've seen on here in a long time. Drives me crazy seeing the '15% need oxygen and 5% need
ventilation' on every news article. I think they get this from WHO but it badly needs updating. In a time with a lot of criticism of 'fake news', here is known incorrect statistics from WHO and repeated without scrutiny by our news sources.

Funsterdelux · 13-09-2020 11:56AM

Onesea wrote: »

Too many fruit cakes here. I'm out

I used to prefer a good porter cake myself. Cant stomach them anymore.

petes · 13-09-2020 11:58AM

Onesea wrote: »

Too many fruit cakes here. I'm out

Ha, coming from the poster who previously posted qanon crap, the irony!

Renjit · 13-09-2020 12:04PM

Onesea wrote: »

How many died in Ireland due to c19 in July August and September?

Ideally, we should talk about this once we hit 10k a day :pac:

niallo27 · 13-09-2020 12:05PM

Easy to spot the people that won't be affected by this financially in here.

eigrod · 13-09-2020 12:06PM

ICU and hospitalisations creeping up ever so slowly now. 10 in ICU, 54 in hospitals.

https://covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com/pages/hospitals-icu--testing

bpb101 · 13-09-2020 12:15PM

Just back from city west
Was a close contact 9 days ago
24hours from contact call to test . Which imo is a great turn around. But heard other parts are longer

Any idea what the mean results time is these days

majcos · 13-09-2020 12:32PM

Klonker wrote: »

Best post I've seen on here in a long time. Drives me crazy seeing the '15% need oxygen and 5% need
ventilation' on every news article. I think they get this from WHO but it badly needs updating. In a time with a lot of criticism of 'fake news', here is known incorrect statistics from WHO and repeated without scrutiny by our news sources.

Definitely needs updating but I cannot figure out how the OP came to his figures for hospitalisation rates and ICU admission rate.

The WHO and all health authorities involved would be well aware that initial mortality rates/rates of hospital admissions etc, in a pandemic, or any new illness for that matter, are skewed. It takes some time to see a more accurate picture.

Sickest people declare themselves first and are diagnosed first which increases the apparent mortality rate, etc. Mild cases not diagnosed or recognised so illness appears worse. But the various health bodies would know this. Admittedly journalists can/do misinterpret the meaning of these figures but the like of NPHET would have a better understanding of the numbers and know that mortality is much lower and factor that knowledge in to their decision-making.

From a public health perspective a mortality rate of even 0.1% of population is a very high number of deaths (4900) from a single cause in a single year. It would be nearly 10,000 deaths if everyone in country gets infected and mortality rate is 0.2%, etc.

Jim_Hodge · 13-09-2020 12:35PM

Onesea wrote: »

Too many fruit cakes here. I'm out

Yes, everybody is out of step except you. Anybody who disagrees with your extreme interpretations is a fruit cake.

Good luck

Ger Roe · 13-09-2020 12:44PM

Not sure how relevant this point is, but I have been on this thread from the start and I don't think I have seen as many people posting with direct connections to the whole process, as over the past month or so.

People reporting they have it, are awaiting tests, have been tested, have been notified as close contacts etc. Even in the midst of the high death numbers and hospitals at breaking point, there was not as much direct experience reporting on this thread, as there is now.

Anyone else notice that?

Happydays2020 · 13-09-2020 12:55PM

Ger Roe wrote: »

Not sure how relevant this point is, but I have been on this thread from the start and I don't think I have seen as many people posting with direct connections to the whole process, as over the past month or so.

People reporting they have it, are awaiting tests, have been tested, have been notified as close contacts etc. Even in the midst of the high death numbers and hospitals at breaking point, there was not as much direct experience reporting on this thread, as there is now.

Anyone else notice that?

I suppose that is a reflection of pro active community testing plus we are all viral experts now.

I know people who were tested and had some symptoms (in one case serious) back in April and May and I assume many were the same.

Covid 19 Part XXIII-33,444 in ROI(1,792 deaths) 9,541 in NI(577 deaths)(22/09)Read OP

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