Covid 19 Part XXII-30,360 in ROI(1,781 deaths) 8,035 in NI (568 deaths)(10/09)Read OP

ixoy · 08-09-2020 11:04PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Restrict Dublin to keep virus from spreading across rest of country.

Didn't realise there were no cases elsewhere.

Restaurants takeaway only.

Why? There's not been reports of spreads in restaurants as it's a controlled environment.

Nobody in your house other your own family.

Nobody? That's not going to work. People need interaction.

Simple.

No it's not. I was out shopping and, maybe it's just this week, but mask wearing was the worst I've seen in ages.

The problem with any of the suggestions really is you need public buy in. It was much easier in March when deaths were rocketing but now - with one in recent weeks - you'll find it a much tougher sell (and that's not accounting for the whole Golf dinner).

Funsterdelux · 08-09-2020 11:06PM

All this wet pub designation business is fairly simple.

They are calling them wet pubs because in a pub with grub/restaurant you cant have any craic so its a dry pub( as in dry shíte) hence the opposite would be called wet.

Goldengirl · 08-09-2020 11:06PM

Goldengirl wrote: »

But only partly right .

Because some are tested are "guilty " even though they might protest their " innocence " to use the original metaphor .

Strumms · 08-09-2020 11:07PM

ixoy wrote: »

Didn't realise there were no cases elsewhere.

Why? There's not been reports of spreads in restaurants as it's a controlled environment.

Nobody? That's not going to work. People need interaction.

No it's not. I was out shopping and, maybe it's just this week, but mask wearing was the worst I've seen in ages.

The problem with any of the suggestions really is you need public buy in. It was much easier in March when deaths were rocketing but now - with one in recent weeks - you'll find it a much tougher sell (and that's not accounting for the whole Golf dinner).

The mask usage was really low in my local shopping center. Teens it seems just don’t wear them, guys in particular... lots of elderly too....pretty poor at wearing.

Ficheall · 08-09-2020 11:08PM

https://twitter.com/statnews/status/1303442872050515970

Phase 3 vaccine put on hold.

Hurrache · 08-09-2020 11:10PM

Ficheall wrote: »

https://twitter.com/statnews/status/1303442872050515970

Phase 3 vaccine put on hold.

Nothing out of the ordinary though. All trials are suspended in order to investigate what may be adverse reactions for those participating.

Happydays2020 · 08-09-2020 11:12PM

Ficheall wrote: »

https://twitter.com/statnews/status/1303442872050515970

Phase 3 vaccine put on hold.

In a way that is a relief. When there is a vaccine we need one which has been tested and if people with certain conditions have adverse reactions then better to know now. The flu vaccine is not recommended for everyone because of adverse reactions. Of course the question is whether this is in a small number of cases or something more prevalent.

Wolf359f · 08-09-2020 11:15PM

NegativeCreep wrote: »

What’s our capacity for hospital admissions? Do people want a lockdown so we can achieve zero Covid or near zero Covid? I thought lockdown was supposed to stop our hospitals from getting overwhelmed, not eradicate the virus. We’re nowhere close to the hospitals being overwhelmed as of yet. The stagnant number of 6 in ICU suggests to me that people aren’t being as badly effected or maybe they’ve gotten better at treating people with the virus.

Are we positive that all of those people have been admitted to the hospital for Covid or have some of them been admitted for something else and tested positive while there?

Well considering there's 207 on trolleys today, I can't imagine we have infinite beds for Covid patients. I have no clue how many are asymptomatic patients admitted, who test positive. They are still taking up a bed.

At the start of the pandemic (March & April) we were averaging a 15% hospitalization rate on over 24,000 cases, we're now averaging 2.3% rate over the past 2 months (111 admissions with 4663 cases)
I know at the start people were admitted as a precaution and it had spread unchecked to all age groups and now it's mainly in the under 45's. But even with that, the hospital rate broken down among all age groups is drastically down.

We're miles away from where we were at the start, but hospital admissions can't go unchecked, there will have to be some restrictions/changes to slow it down or stabilize it to be more accurate.

majcos · 08-09-2020 11:16PM

NegativeCreep wrote: »

What’s our capacity for hospital admissions? Do people want a lockdown so we can achieve zero Covid or near zero Covid? I thought lockdown was supposed to stop our hospitals from getting overwhelmed, not eradicate the virus. We’re nowhere close to the hospitals being overwhelmed as of yet. The stagnant number of 6 in ICU suggests to me that people aren’t being as badly effected or maybe they’ve gotten better at treating people with the virus.

Are we positive that all of those people have been admitted to the hospital for Covid or have some of them been admitted for something else and tested positive while there?

Of the current 49 in hospital, most of those are admitted directly due to Covid apart from the three unfortunate patients who contracted Covid while already inpatients in Beaumont with some other condition. The first case of those who contracted in the hospital presumably had a specific trigger for Covid testing like an otherwise unexplained high temperature so that person is also symptomatic. That leaves potentially two who are asymptomatic but happen to be in hospital for their other condition.

There is a possibility that someone among the 49 happened to also have Covid when they came to ED with a different condition but statistically I think the likelihood of that is very low.

Perhaps someone with a background in statistics could give us an estimate on that likelihood using number of inpatients, number of confirmed cases per population....

Downlinz · 08-09-2020 11:16PM

ixoy wrote: »

What exactly are people looking for from a Dublin lockdown? I mean no travel outside of it hardly would solve the issue.

Do people want schools shut in Dublin only, depriving kids of proper education?
Do they want restaurants closed, despite next to no evidence of it being a source of spread?
Do they want household numbers reduced further - it's already at six?
Do they want more targeted areas in Dublin to be locked down instead - easier to manage? Why punish Skerries if the issue's in Tallaght?

What's the proposed plan?

If a part of the country has a high rate of community spread they should have increased restrictions to a) prevent it spreading to other parts of the country and b) reduce the local spread in the area. We've done it already both locally and nationally to great success.

Everything else you've posted is emotional garbage that seems to come from a place of belief that Dublin should be treated as a special case for whatever reason and I think you have a very unhealthy view of restrictions in general if you view the purpose as "punishment".

stephenjmcd · 08-09-2020 11:16PM

Ficheall wrote: »

https://twitter.com/statnews/status/1303442872050515970

Phase 3 vaccine put on hold.

Nothing out of the ordinary, standard procedure.

Good to see to be honest when it comes to safety. Some people were shouting about safety and this is what you want to see in terms of safety even if it is just the 1 person which shows no corners being cut.

The spokesperson described the pause as “a routine action which has to happen whenever there is a potentially unexplained illness in one of the trials, while it is investigated, ensuring we maintain the integrity of the trials.”

Ficheall · 08-09-2020 11:16PM

AdamD wrote: »

Yeah lets go back to making life not worth living

:pac:

douglashyde · 08-09-2020 11:16PM

Polar101 wrote: »

I've been to a wet pub once, the roof was leaking and yellowish liquid was dropping into a bucket. When you ordered a pint of lager, the "beer" looked and tasted suspiciously similar to the stuff that was in the bucket, but at least it was cheap.

But that's the only time I've used the term, and I never went back to the place.

A theory based on absolute no fact is that a smart marketing / comms person in NPHET came up with that term. It sounds dirty and unattractive. Plus connotations of 'wet markets'

Goldengirl · 08-09-2020 11:18PM

NegativeCreep wrote: »

What’s our capacity for hospital admissions? Do people want a lockdown so we can achieve zero Covid or near zero Covid? I thought lockdown was supposed to stop our hospitals from getting overwhelmed, not eradicate the virus. We’re nowhere close to the hospitals being overwhelmed as of yet. The stagnant number of 6 in ICU suggests to me that people aren’t being as badly effected or maybe they’ve gotten better at treating people with the virus.

Are we positive that all of those people have been admitted to the hospital for Covid or have some of them been admitted for something else and tested positive while there?

Read Majcos post .
It explains really well why this virus is so dangerous in hospitalised cases , and in those admitted with other issues.
If you don't already know how stretched our hospitals get on a day to day basis, try adding an infectious disease into the mix with patients of all ages who are vulnerable in one way or another .
Not to mention the tipping point a hospital reaches when they have no more isolation rooms to treat these patients , and wards have to be closed to be converted to " Covid " wards , and the resultant effect on numbers of staff available to care for non Covid patients .
8750 + healthcare staff already infected .

Ficheall · 08-09-2020 11:18PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Nothing out of the ordinary, standard procedure.

Good to see to be honest when it comes to safety. Some people were shouting about safety and this is what you want to see in terms of safety even if it is just the 1 person which shows no corners being cut.

The spokesperson described the pause as “a routine action which has to happen whenever there is a potentially unexplained illness in one of the trials, while it is investigated, ensuring we maintain the integrity of the trials.”

I know, aye - I've no objection to it. Just thought it might be of interest. I'd be wary of taking a rushed vaccine.

stephenjmcd · 08-09-2020 11:21PM

Ficheall wrote: »

I know, aye - I've no objection to it. Just thought it might be of interest. I'd be wary of taking a rushed vaccine.

Oh yeah for sure. To be honest I'd say for most it would be good news even if on the face a pause slows things down. It'll hopefully show that safety is the highest priority.

I think once the trials progress and its given approval I wouldn't have an issue myself. pfizer also seem quite close behind Oxford now as well

maebee · 08-09-2020 11:22PM

Parabellum9 wrote: »

You’re missing my point - why should Limerick as a whole have restrictions because the cases are originating in one town?

Garda checkpoints could much more easily restrict access in and out of hotspot localities than everybody in that county being restricted.

Agreed. I was in Limerick city centre today and I could count on one hand the number of people not wearing face coverings. The covid spread in Limerick is coming from one town in west Limerick, whose citizens have absolutely no regard for the law.

NegativeCreep · 08-09-2020 11:24PM

Wolf359f wrote: »

Well considering there's 207 on trolleys today, I can't imagine we have infinite beds for Covid patients. I have no clue how many are asymptomatic patients admitted, who test positive. They are still taking up a bed.

At the start of the pandemic (March & April) we were averaging a 15% hospitalization rate on over 24,000 cases, we're now averaging 2.3% rate over the past 2 months (111 admissions with 4663 cases)
I know at the start people were admitted as a precaution and it had spread unchecked to all age groups and now it's mainly in the under 45's. But even with that, the hospital rate broken down among all age groups is drastically down.

We're miles away from where we were at the start, but hospital admissions can't go unchecked, there will have to be some restrictions/changes to slow it down or stabilize it to be more accurate.

I’d say there’s so many in trolleys because hospitals have whole wards closed off for coronavirus patients (which is a good thing) but they’re sitting nearly empty. I agree they need to keep their eye on admissions but we’re nowhere near lockdown levels.

Goldengirl · 08-09-2020 11:25PM

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

There is no breakdown of the data to know if a confirmed case in hospital has come from a suspected case, a new symptomatic admission, or routine admissions-testing for other medical reasons.

The problem with suspected numbers is that they are “noisy” and jump all over the place. There’s generally a pattern to covid as it spreads, but suspect cases is a mix of stuff that is influenced by general admissions, which is less patterned.

In short, the suspected case numbers don’t have any correlation to eventual confirmed cases to be considered a useful signal.

I agree that it shouldn't be included in public data as it is confusing .

Likewise I think at this stage the swab numbers per day are a bit confusing , except that it shows that increased testing is going on somewhere , but really for the same reason as suspected cases doesn't add much without context .

Context would be better with suspected cases but they then run the risk of identifying patients so that's why not given , I would think .

NegativeCreep · 08-09-2020 11:27PM

majcos wrote: »

Of the current 49 in hospital, most of those are admitted directly due to Covid apart from the three unfortunate patients who contracted Covid while already inpatients in Beaumont with some other condition. The first case of those who contracted in the hospital presumably had a specific trigger for Covid testing like an otherwise unexplained high temperature so that person is also symptomatic. That leaves potentially two who are asymptomatic but happen to be in hospital for their other condition.

There is a possibility that someone among the 49 happened to also have Covid when they came to ED with a different condition but statistically I think the likelihood of that is very low.

Perhaps someone with a background in statistics could give us an estimate on that likelihood using number of inpatients, number of confirmed cases per population....

My mother was in Beaumont hospital for a while up until Monday and she was tested every so often for no apparent reason so that patient might not have had any symptoms (obviously I don’t know but they might not have)

majcos · 08-09-2020 11:30PM

Ficheall wrote: »

https://twitter.com/statnews/status/1303442872050515970

Phase 3 vaccine put on hold.

They shouldn’t be worried about that participant and just push ahead. I heard he/she had an underlying medical condition. 🙃

douglashyde · 08-09-2020 11:32PM

What I find interesting is that despite in the face of facts; some people's opinion are immovable. They have a zero tolerance for death at any age. They believe sweating ever hour of life is the only number to look at.

Not people's mental health. Not people's livelihoods. Not people's happiness.

The median age of death by CV19 being 83 (Irish life expectancy is 82) & 88% have underlying health conditions.

" At the the end it's not years in life that count; it's the life in years. " - someone smarter than me

Goldengirl · 08-09-2020 11:33PM

majcos wrote: »

Of the current 49 in hospital, most of those are admitted directly due to Covid apart from the three unfortunate patients who contracted Covid while already inpatients in Beaumont with some other condition. The first case of those who contracted in the hospital presumably had a specific trigger for Covid testing like an otherwise unexplained high temperature so that person is also symptomatic. That leaves potentially two who are asymptomatic but happen to be in hospital for their other condition.

There is a possibility that someone among the 49 happened to also have Covid when they came to ED with a different condition but statistically I think the likelihood of that is very low.

Perhaps someone with a background in statistics could give us an estimate on that likelihood using number of inpatients, number of confirmed cases per population....

Or that patient was tested negative for some reason , too early in course of disease to pick up enough virus ?

Non solum non ambulabit · 08-09-2020 11:34PM

Goldengirl wrote: »

Of course they do !
One place they will go before results back .

So somebody presenting with Covid symptoms for the first time into a hospital is so sick they are placed straight into ICU.

Covid ward would be the first stop surely. At least get assessed by some doctors first?

ixoy · 08-09-2020 11:35PM

Downlinz wrote: »

If a part of the country has a high rate of community spread they should have increased restrictions to a) prevent it spreading to other parts of the country and b) reduce the local spread in the area. We've done it already both locally and nationally to great success.

Everything else you've posted is emotional garbage that seems to come from a place of belief that Dublin should be treated as a special case for whatever reason and I think you have a very unhealthy view of restrictions in general if you view the purpose as "punishment".

I didn't say that Dublin should be treated differently though did I? I asked for the rationale behind certain proposed restrictions and what restrictions might work and how you get public buy in when the current situation is different right now to that in March.

igCorcaigh · 08-09-2020 11:37PM

douglashyde wrote: »

What I find interesting is that despite in the face of facts; some people's opinion are immovable. They have a zero tolerance for death at any age. They believe sweating ever hour of life is the only number to look at.

Not people's mental health. Not people's livelihoods. Not people's happiness.

The median age of death by CV19 being 83 (Irish life expectancy is 82) & 88% have underlying health conditions.

" At the the end it's not years in life that count; it's the life in years. " - someone smarter than me

It's the scale of deaths in the elderly that is so scary, if this gets out of control. We could lose huge numbers of our older people. I don't want to see that, knowing it can be prevented.

Goldengirl · 08-09-2020 11:43PM

NegativeCreep wrote: »

I’d say there’s so many in trolleys because hospitals have whole wards closed off for coronavirus patients (which is a good thing) but they’re sitting nearly empty. I agree they need to keep their eye on admissions but we’re nowhere near lockdown levels.

I agree we are nowhere near " lockdown levels" , but still it's not great .
By the way only wards are not closed off only if no more isolation rooms and of course depended on how hospital is managing their positive patients.
Hospital numbers are not generally at that level yet , but that is what will happen as the hospitalised cases increase and that will impact on beds , staffing and general treatment and services .

Downlinz · 08-09-2020 11:45PM

ixoy wrote: »

I didn't say that Dublin should be treated differently though did I? I asked for the rationale behind certain proposed restrictions and what restrictions might work and how you get public buy in when the current situation is different right now to that in March.

The rationale is to reduce community interaction to contain the spread. We already know the restrictions worked in other counties.
Specifically no non-essential travel outside of the county and closing restaurants, bars and other indoor social gathering areas.

The public bought in well enough in Kildare, Laois and Offaly just a few weeks ago so I'm not sure if there's a reason why Dublin or any other county would be different.

08-09-2020 11:46PM

AdamD wrote: »

Yeah lets go back to making life not worth living

Only if you live in Dublin Limerick. The rest of us won't be locked down just yet.

Non solum non ambulabit · 08-09-2020 11:47PM

igCorcaigh wrote: »

It's the scale of deaths in the elderly that is so scary, if this gets out of control. We could lose huge numbers of our older people. I don't want to see that, knowing it can be prevented.

There are far worse killers of old people than Covid unfortunately.

Covid 19 Part XXII-30,360 in ROI(1,781 deaths) 8,035 in NI (568 deaths)(10/09)Read OP

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