Recession is back baby

Wanderer78 · 08-09-2020 10:18am

scrumqueen wrote: »

With any luck. Id settle for them dropping to affordable TBQH.

this may not happen, our economic and financial systems are geared towards maintaining inflated house prices, doesnt always work though

scrumqueen · 08-09-2020 10:21am

Wanderer78 wrote: »

this may not happen, our economic and financial systems are geared towards maintaining inflated house prices, doesnt always work though

yep, the price of houses have been so inflated for so long that were they to tank below 50% of what the market paid there would be murder

Wanderer78 · 08-09-2020 10:22am

scrumqueen wrote: »

yep, the price of houses have been so inflated for so long that were they to tank below 50% of what the market paid there would be murder

even a drop of 10%, could probably cause serious economic problems

KungPao · 08-09-2020 10:31am

scrumqueen wrote: »

yep, the price of houses have been so inflated for so long that were they to tank below 50% of what the market paid there would be murder

There’d be blood. Below 50%? There’d be masses of people refusing to pay mortgages. They’d be feeling hard done by. Who wants to pay €300,000 plus interest for something worth €150,000 or less?

nthclare · 08-09-2020 10:31am

scrumqueen wrote: »

yep, the price of houses have been so inflated for so long that were they to tank below 50% of what the market paid there would be murder

I know my house is up 80k since the last recession, a year ago I was thinking of selling up, and buying a smaller house nearer the coast, and cashing in because I have no mortgage.

I don't know what to do now lol
I'm in the Burren in a nice location but the ocean calls

Wanderer78 · 08-09-2020 10:32am

KungPao wrote: »

There’d be blood. Below 50%? There’d be masses of people refusing to pay mortgages. They’d be feeling hard done by. Who wants to pay €300,000 plus interest for something worth €150,000 or less?

oh it would be a lot more serious than that, if you thought 08 was bad.....:eek:

08-09-2020 10:33am

My house still isn’t worth what I paid for it in 07

KungPao · 08-09-2020 10:34am

Wanderer78 wrote: »

oh it would be a lot more serious than that, if you thought 08 was bad.....:eek:

If my house suddenly was worth less than half, I’d be off! Adios. Start a new life under the sea maybe.

Wanderer78 · 08-09-2020 10:35am

KungPao wrote: »

If my house suddenly was worth less than half, I’d be off! Adios. Start a new life under the sea maybe.

probably no harm, may not be any place to live on the crust after the fact!

Ush1 · 08-09-2020 10:38am

My house has appreciated one hundred percent since 2012. No plans on selling though.

eggy81 · 08-09-2020 10:46am

ChikiChiki wrote: »

You're in a good situation. I would however be very cautious of taking what any company tells you as gospel. Nothing is certain right now.

Demand for Commercial Real Estate will likely fall through the floor with the switch to remote working. The same with housing demand. The whole landscape has been uprooted. It takes time for this to filter through but banks will be cautious of where they put their money.

Its grand. We can just turn it all into data centres when everyone is working from home. Gov need to get the finger out and sort out proper fibre to the house broadband for all areas of the country. Its the most important project in the country going forward IMHO.

Wanderer78 · 08-09-2020 10:48am

eggy81 wrote: »

Its grand. We can just turn it all into data centres when everyone is working from home. Gov need to get the finger out and sort out proper fibre to the house broadband for all areas of the country. Its the most important project in the country going forward IMHO.

broadband connection is indeed becoming critical, but an even bigger problem is data mining! we need to start gaining some sort of wealth from handing this stuff over, virtually for free!

Kivaro · 08-09-2020 10:48am

Tuco88 wrote: »

At least this time we all have masks to rob the post office or a credit union if you're a risk taker...

If you were a risk taker, you would be doing it without a mask.

Brock Turnpike · 08-09-2020 10:51am

Wanderer78 wrote: »

broadband connection is indeed becoming critical, but an even bigger problem is data mining! we need to start gaining some sort of wealth from handing this stuff over, virtually for free!

NBI are ramping up recruitment at the moment so they are definitely well on top of this and not behind schedule in any way. No, siree.

Wanderer78 · 08-09-2020 10:52am

Brock Turnpike wrote: »

NBI are ramping up recruitment at the moment so they are definitely well on top of this and not behind schedule in any way. No, siree.

lots of money being thrown at it

rtron · 08-09-2020 10:56am

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

"no recession in your house"

If I hear this after spending a bit and treating myself, I'm gonna kill someone. Just fcuk right off.

And if you weren't spending you'd lamblasted for that aswell.
Well done sir, its people like you keeping the country afloat.

Wanderer78 · 08-09-2020 10:57am

rtron wrote: »

And if you weren't spending you'd lamblasted for that aswell.
Well done sir, its people like you keeping the country afloat.

i spend very little, work away folks!

Feisar · 08-09-2020 11:00am

KungPao wrote: »

If my house suddenly was worth less than half, I’d be off! Adios. Start a new life under the sea maybe.

Why though? If it's a home and not an investment property what does it matter? Your house for example isn't in it's own bubble it is part of the market. If one buys a house for €250K and it goes up to €750K so did all the other similar properties. So if they sell the house and nett the €500K what then, go renting?

Wanderer78 · 08-09-2020 11:02am

Feisar wrote: »

Why though? If it's a home and not an investment property what does it matter? Your house for example isn't in it's own bubble it is part of the market. If one buys a house for €250K and it goes up to €750K so did all the other similar properties. So if they sell the house and nett the €500K what then, go renting?

gigantic drops in markets, particularly in housing markets, creates severe instabilities, particularly, economically, politically and socially, such a drop could be dangerous for us all, in all matters

rtron · 08-09-2020 11:05am

Wanderer78 wrote: »

i spend very little, work away folks!

And if you were getting into debt you couldn't afford you'd be lamblasted for that.
Well done sir, its people like you stopping the country going deeper into recession.

Wanderer78 · 08-09-2020 11:18am

rtron wrote: »

And if you were getting into debt you couldn't afford you'd be lamblasted for that.
Well done sir, its people like you stopping the country going deeper into recession.

id argue for and against that also, economies are astonishingly complex beasts, to the point, i dont think anyone truly understands their workings, and may never do, our individual interactions with them, can have overall negative and positive effects on them. people can do what they want, what they believe is the right thing to do for themselves, but there are always consequences for these actions, both positive and negative for the individual and the collective, most importantly, make sure you re just simply enjoying life, and if you arent, change things, look after yourself and others as best you can, noting, fcuking up is normal

Lockheed · 08-09-2020 11:30am

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »

Why not?

Quite a few of our citizens could benefit from sticking around and learning the important lesson in life of not running away from problems.

This pandemic might even have a positive effect in changing that element in our culture a bit.

Imagine what the world would be like today if our ancestors who were in the Great Famine decided to stick around and starve to death instead of 'running away from their problems'.

Gregor Samsa · 08-09-2020 12:03pm

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

From memory mortgage lending will stop first, house prices will tank.

Again, this recession is not the same as the last one.

The last one was caused by the banks becoming unviable due to being overburdened with debt. The had to stop lending because they couldn't afford to any more.

This one is caused by the fact that we deliberately, but temporarily, shut down a vibrant economy to prevent our healthcare system from being overloaded by victims of a pandemic virus. The banks run under a much more regulated system than they did in 2007, designed to prevent it happening again.

At the moment we're in a technical recession, which is absolutely no surprise. What is a surprise is that despite the lockdown, the numbers for Q2 in particular aren't as bad as they could have been.

What will tell us whether we're in an actual recession is what happens over the next couple of quarters when the economy is opened back up to a much greater degree.

But whatever way it works out, property and lending on it isn't the cause of this recession, so won't be the first victim.

08-09-2020 12:20pm

Zak Flaps wrote: »

I'm so glad i still work in the sex industry!

There are some huge expansions and contractions in that, a real roller coaster ride!

08-09-2020 12:21pm

Gregor Samsa wrote: »

Again, this recession is not the same as the last one.

True, however it is the Government borrowing that concerns me the most.

Wanderer78 · 08-09-2020 12:41pm

Gregor Samsa wrote: »

Again, this recession is not the same as the last one.

The last one was caused by the banks becoming unviable due to being overburdened with debt. The had to stop lending because they couldn't afford to any more.

This one is caused by the fact that we deliberately, but temporarily, shut down a vibrant economy to prevent our healthcare system from being overloaded by victims of a pandemic virus. The banks run under a much more regulated system than they did in 2007, designed to prevent it happening again.

At the moment we're in a technical recession, which is absolutely no surprise. What is a surprise is that despite the lockdown, the numbers for Q2 in particular aren't as bad as they could have been.

What will tell us whether we're in an actual recession is what happens over the next couple of quarters when the economy is opened back up to a much greater degree.

But whatever way it works out, property and lending on it isn't the cause of this recession, so won't be the first victim.

our banking system doesnt exist in a vacuum, as its complexly intertwined with the global system, and a similar set of conditions is currently occurring globally within our financial systems, i.e. a rapid decline in the demand for new credit, and an increase in the likelihood of defaults and none performing loans, be prepared for something!

Wanderer78 · 08-09-2020 12:44pm

Deleted User wrote: »

True, however it is the Government borrowing that concerns me the most.

growing public debt rarely, but not never, has caused economic crashes, as historically, growing private debt has caused far more serious problems and crashes, as we recently experienced, i.e. dont worry too much about it, as its not a major problem

tonycascarino · 08-09-2020 1:42pm

October budget will be very interesting

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! · 08-09-2020 2:44pm

Wanderer78 wrote: »

so when people run out of options that suit them in this country, and 'runaway' to other countries, to potentially improve those options, theyre in fact running away from their problems????

In most cases, yes.

The people who stay, tough it out and come out the other end are in most cases much more impressive people.

Those who run, will always run... it's just in their nature. Every country has a certain % of these people. For some reason Ireland appears to have a higher % than other nations.

Lockheed wrote: »

Imagine what the world would be like today if our ancestors who were in the Great Famine decided to stick around and starve to death instead of 'running away from their problems'.

Famines, wars, ethnic genocide etc are very different to an economic downturn. They would be some of the genuine reasons why someone might leave a certain place.

Wanderer78 · 08-09-2020 2:48pm

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »

In most cases, yes.

The people who stay, tough it out and come out the other end are in most cases much more impressive people.

Those who run, will always run... it's just in their nature. Every country has a certain % of these people. For some reason Ireland appears to have a higher % than other nations.

Famines, wars, ethnic genocide etc are very different to an economic downturn. They would be some of the genuine reasons why someone might leave a certain place.

...and you have discussed this in great detail with these individuals, in order to obtain this 'opinion'?

nthclare · 08-09-2020 3:00pm

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »

In most cases, yes.

The people who stay, tough it out and come out the other end are in most cases much more impressive people.

Those who run, will always run... it's just in their nature. Every country has a certain % of these people. For some reason Ireland appears to have a higher % than other nations.

Famines, wars, ethnic genocide etc are very different to an economic downturn. They would be some of the genuine reasons why someone might leave a certain place.

It's best to be adaptable to any situation.
Myself I am humble bragging as usual but when I got big inheritance in 2003 I left the cooperative world and settled into a cushy number which pays around the average industrial wage and in line with my degree in horticulture.

I had high notions and left the gardening world in 1999 joined a multinational, climbed the ladder. But being a dickhead didn't suit me,I was going through the legality of getting inheritance from an old relative and in my head I said when I have the money bagged,I'll leave this sh1t plebby IT job and go back to horticulture.
And I did, left the 65 hours a week and went back to the 40 for half the salary.
Didn't need the hassle of the endless pointless meetings, trying to pull the wool over people's eyes and nodding my head in approval of cut throat tactics and strategies.

I was a statistical analyst, and it was boring and the only rewards were guilt and an unhealthy conscious, for cutting jobs and man power...

Feisar · 08-09-2020 3:05pm

nthclare wrote: »

It's best to be adaptable to any situation.
Myself I am humble bragging as usual but when I got big inheritance in 2003 I left the cooperative world and settled into a cushy number which pays around the average industrial wage and in line with my degree in horticulture.

I had high notions and left the gardening world in 1999 joined a multinational, climbed the ladder. But being a dickhead didn't suit me,I was going through the legality of getting inheritance from an old relative and in my head I said when I have the money bagged,I'll leave this sh1t plebby IT job and go back to horticulture.
And I did, left the 65 hours a week and went back to the 40 for half the salary.
Didn't need the hassle of the endless pointless meetings, trying to pull the wool over people's eyes and nodding my head in approval of cut throat tactics and strategies.

I was a statistical analyst, and it was boring and the only rewards were guilt and an unhealthy conscious, for cutting jobs and man power...

My god the pointless meetings, or the pointlessly long meetings.

Wanderer78 · 08-09-2020 3:06pm

nthclare wrote: »

It's best to be adaptable to any situation.
Myself I am humble bragging as usual but when I got big inheritance in 2003 I left the cooperative world and settled into a cushy number which pays around the average industrial wage and in line with my degree in horticulture.

I had high notions and left the gardening world in 1999 joined a multinational, climbed the ladder. But being a dickhead didn't suit me,I was going through the legality of getting inheritance from an old relative and in my head I said when I have the money bagged,I'll leave this sh1t plebby IT job and go back to horticulture.
And I did, left the 65 hours a week and went back to the 40 for half the salary.
Didn't need the hassle of the endless pointless meetings, trying to pull the wool over people's eyes and nodding my head in approval of cut throat tactics and strategies.

I was a statistical analyst, and it was boring and the only rewards were guilt and an unhealthy conscious, for cutting jobs and man power...

...and we remain, keeping these industries on a pedestal, then wonder how mental health issues are on the rise!

nthclare · 08-09-2020 3:09pm

Feisar wrote: »

My god the pointless meetings, or the pointlessly long meetings.

I know it was bloody awful, now I know why people who don't have mortgages and plenty of land etc just have a regular cushy number.

I was going to be a tobogganist, but there's not much snow in Ireland...

https://youtu.be/pRZeYHM1GzQ

Wanderer78 · 08-09-2020 3:12pm

nthclare wrote: »

I know it was bloody awful, now I know why people who don't have mortgages and plenty of land etc just have a regular cushy number.

I was going to be a tobogganist, but there's not much snow in Ireland...

https://youtu.be/pRZeYHM1GzQ

i ll help you build a snow mountain, as long as i can jump in the back

nthclare · 08-09-2020 3:30pm

Wanderer78 wrote: »

i ll help you build a snow mountain, as long as i can jump in the back

No problem, there's room for two

Man with broke phone · 08-09-2020 4:05pm

Wait whats this bull****.

A statistical analyst has the same basic after 39 hours as a horticulturist?

He was doing 26 hours overtime a week though but was tired of it.

Go way out of that. Didnt want to live in the corporate world so tends a shovel and hangs out with the great unwashed turning sod.

Statistically what are the odds this is pony.

ChikiChiki · 08-09-2020 4:14pm

nthclare wrote: »

It's best to be adaptable to any situation.
Myself I am humble bragging as usual but when I got big inheritance in 2003 I left the cooperative world and settled into a cushy number which pays around the average industrial wage and in line with my degree in horticulture.

I had high notions and left the gardening world in 1999 joined a multinational, climbed the ladder. But being a dickhead didn't suit me,I was going through the legality of getting inheritance from an old relative and in my head I said when I have the money bagged,I'll leave this sh1t plebby IT job and go back to horticulture.
And I did, left the 65 hours a week and went back to the 40 for half the salary.
Didn't need the hassle of the endless pointless meetings, trying to pull the wool over people's eyes and nodding my head in approval of cut throat tactics and strategies.

I was a statistical analyst, and it was boring and the only rewards were guilt and an unhealthy conscious, for cutting jobs and man power...

Is everyone who works hard and gets promoted working for MNCs a dickhead in your narrow view of the world?

weldoninhio · 08-09-2020 4:15pm

Man with broke phone wrote: »

Wait whats this bull****.

A statistical analyst has the same basic after 39 hours as a horticulturist?

He was doing 26 hours overtime a week though but was tired of it.

Go way out of that. Didnt want to live in the corporate world so tends a shovel and hangs out with the great unwashed turning sod.

Statistically what are the odds this is pony.

Also had rich relatives dying off each time he wanted to try something new.

OMM 0000 · 08-09-2020 4:15pm

ChikiChiki wrote: »

Is everyone who works hard and gets promoted working for MNCs a dickhead in your narrow view of the world?

This is boards. If you're doing well or in management it means you're evil. No one can accept their work related problems might be their own fault.

ChikiChiki · 08-09-2020 4:16pm

OMM 0000 wrote: »

This is boards. If you're doing well or in management it means you're evil. No one can accept their work related problems might be their own fault.

Yeah tbh, I find that post to be a load of made up guff anyway. Chap has probably never left his cave in the burren.

bmc58 · 08-09-2020 4:27pm

ShockChance wrote: »

It was just a light hearted joke on my part.

Trust me when I say I went threw hell in the last recession I know whats coming.

Different this time.It's not the robbing bankers.And theres a big pot from the EU in grants and cheap loans to kick start economies again.

ShineOn7 · 08-09-2020 4:34pm

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »

Why not?

Quite a few of our citizens could benefit from sticking around and learning the important lesson in life of not running away from problems.

This pandemic might even have a positive effect in changing that element in our culture a bit.

Wanting a better life abroad in Australia or wherever is not "running away from your problems"

But you strike me as someone who's never seen anywhere apart from Ireland and maybe Santa Ponsa, so there's no point in engaging with you

Wanderer78 · 08-09-2020 4:38pm

OMM 0000 wrote:

This is boards. If you're doing well or in management it means you're evil. No one can accept their work related problems might be their own fault.

Completely agree, the most critical decisions a person has regarding their career is their date of birth and choice of parents, make a balls of this and you could find yourself completely fcuked!

Wanderer78 · 08-09-2020 4:41pm

Healey_Tae wrote:

Since when did 08 become some benchmark at which salaries were just right? We were living beyond our means!

We were in our bollcoks, once again, the financial elements of the financial crisis were largely based in our private sector financial institutions, public finances were in resonable state prior to the crash

Wanderer78 · 08-09-2020 4:44pm

Healey_Tae wrote:

Not sure why people are saying they know what is to come. This is the recession. The worst is over with. It's barely even a recession when so many are getting payment from government that's equal to what they were earning before hand.

Our global financial system is currently experiencing a similar set of issues, prior to 08, private debt issues still exist, and are growing, but there's also a rapid decline in the demand for new credit, and now there's an increasing likelyhood of defaults and none performing loans, exactly what happened prior to 08!

Ush1 · 08-09-2020 4:49pm

Wanderer78 wrote: »

We were in our bollcoks, once again, the financial elements of the financial crisis were largely based in our private sector financial institutions, public finances were in resonable state prior to the crash

No they weren't and even if they were that would be largely thanks to the private sector.

Wanderer78 · 08-09-2020 4:50pm

Healey_Tae wrote:

People think history repeats itself. It doesn't. And it definitely doesn't repeat itself inside 12 years.

History regularly repeats itself, the 08 crash had incredible similarities to the 29 crash, so watch this space, this has the potential to get hairy very soon and very quickly

Wanderer78 · 08-09-2020 4:53pm

Ush1 wrote:

No they weren't and even if they were that would be largely thanks to the private sector.

The majority of the money created leading up to 08, was in fact created in our private sector financial institutions, in the form of credit, inflating asset prices, particularly property, leading to a rapid rise in private debt, the extremely dangerous type of debt, similar to the 29 crash, hence the term, 'credit crisis-, and the rest is history......

ArnoldJRimmer · 08-09-2020 5:02pm

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »

In most cases, yes.

The people who stay, tough it out and come out the other end are in most cases much more impressive people.

Those who run, will always run... it's just in their nature. Every country has a certain % of these people. For some reason Ireland appears to have a higher % than other nations.

Famines, wars, ethnic genocide etc are very different to an economic downturn. They would be some of the genuine reasons why someone might leave a certain place.

As one of the traitors who emigrated during the last recession, I'd love to be educated as to what myself and my fellow mercenaries could have done differently

You keep repeating the same point, that we should have 'stayed to rebuild the economy,' but can you provide some specifics?

Should we have taken our non-existent capital, or tried to get some non-existent credit to start a business to provide jobs for local communities?

Or gotten a non-existent job to spend the non-existent wages to support the tax base and other businesses? The only thing you seem to be suggesting is toughing it out on the dole as it shows true character, but that's not a massive help to the economy during a recession

Recession is back baby

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