Covid 19 Part XXII-30,360 in ROI(1,781 deaths) 8,035 in NI (568 deaths)(10/09)Read OP

iguana wrote: »

That's the most cockamamie way of calculating how many people a year it is killing. How about actually looking at how many it has killed so far this year? Then recognising that the reason it is killing so few now is because the lockdown slowed it's spread significantly. And accepting that if it spreads too much again, the only way to prevent significantly more deaths may unfortunately be with another lockdown.

Mod of soap operas, that explains the melodramatic post.

Why would you base the decision to lockdown again on total deaths? As you acknowledge, the lockdown did its job. The situation has evolved and grand totals are utterly pointless to base future decisions on. The most important data is the recent data and trends; which show that the current level of restrictions is enough in order to ensure hospitals are not overwhelmed and deaths do not happen. This means that keeping wet pubs closed, discouraging travel and keeping large gatherings to a minimum is as far as we need to go in order to contain the virus, not a full lockdown which was a once in a lifetime, extreme event that has served its purpose.

fits wrote: »

Feck. I hope its just a blip.

Don’t worry, It’s probably an “outlier”.

49 confirmed cases in hospital. 6 in ICU. ICU number seems to be stable.

Benimar wrote: »

Yes, on 17,438 cases I believe.

Two things - a positivity rate of 2.3% which is high in comparison to the last few weeks.

With 138 cases yesterday and 102 today...that leaves a potential 166 to be announced :eek:

That is a worry. Expecting close on 300 tomorrow for the usual Tuesday high

[Deleted User] wrote: »

4 weeks ago 7 day average was 78, today it’s 130. 4 weeks ago the number of cases in icu was 6. Today it is 6. There are only a handful of icu admissions every week. Less than 1%
Also from 130 per day average in cases, we only have a handful of hospital admissions per day. Things are getting more concerning, but these numbers indicate we have room to manoeuvre before any drastic action needs to be considered

I agree that we have room to manouevre and I also actually think case numbers are low. Compared to what they were they are a small fraction. Deaths are not happening. ICU is steady. That is on the one hand.
On the other hospital admissions are rising. Quite steadily. This means more are getting a bad dose. It was 16 people in hospital on August 16th, so the number has more than trebled in 3 weeks. We would not like to see it treble over the next 3 weeks, I presume.
Still there have been theories argued strongly here that once the meat factory clusters washed through, so to speak, our numbers would fall. That did not happen. People should not ignore indications
I think the numbers will rise, though slowly. At first. Then we may see bigger rises. The analogy of the lily pad covering the pond is a good one. If it doubles in size every day for a very long time it just looks like nothing much at the corner of the pond. For ages. And then it goes fast.
That may happen. None of us know.
I don't think alarm is useful. But I also don't think the virus has changed. Hopefully fewer are automatically ventilated. Hopefully treatments have improved. Hopefully people take a bit extra care, take Vit D, selenium (one Brazil nut daily is enough), try to avoid a heavy load of initial virus if unlucky enough to share space where it is, by wearing a mask.
Just passing thoughts. Covid Log. Stardate 07-09-2020.