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Covid 19 Part XXII-30,360 in ROI(1,781 deaths) 8,035 in NI (568 deaths)(10/09)Read OP

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Comments

  • #6962
    Arghus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,193 ✭✭✭✭Arghus


    I'll be accused of being a doom mongering curtin twitcher by the usual suspects for stating this but the amount of people in hospital, while still relatively low, has doubled in the last 15 days.


  • #6963
    Queried
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 241 ✭✭Queried


    If you live with a close contact of a confirmed case do you have to restrict your movements? Can you go to work/kids go to school? Looked at HSE website and it just confused me.


  • #6964
    Micky 32
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,627 ✭✭✭Micky 32


    Arghus wrote: »
    I'll be accused of being a doom mongering curtin twitcher by the usual suspects for stating this but the amount of people in hospital, while still relatively low, has doubled in the last 15 days.

    While that is true it’s great to see that it’s relatively low and hasn’t doubled in ICU in the last 15 days and it’s only 6. Good to see no deaths again today . Definitely should be worth mentioning.


  • #6965
    odyssey06
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,702 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    ShyMets wrote: »
    Simply put some people are willing to risk it, myself included

    You aren't the sole person exposed to the risks you take though... unless you are living in a bubble apart from trips to the pub.
    Same reasoning behind drink driving laws, anti smoking laws in public.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • #6966
    Strumms
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,822 ✭✭✭✭Strumms


    odyssey06 wrote: »
    You aren't the sole person exposed to the risks you take though... unless you are living in a bubble apart from trips to the pub.
    Same reasoning behind drink driving laws, anti smoking laws in public.

    This, it’s catchable as it’s spreadable. Risk is not just to who catches it in the pub it’s to the subsequent contacts too... family, friends, colleagues...then doctors, nurses, carers and a host of other hospital staff.


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  • #6967
    niallo27
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,139 ✭✭✭✭niallo27


    Arghus wrote: »
    I'll be accused of being a doom mongering curtin twitcher by the usual suspects for stating this but the amount of people in hospital, while still relatively low, has doubled in the last 15 days.

    Without downplaying it, its doesn't seem to be transferring to ICU numbers and one is a bit outbreak in a single hospital. It has doubled from a low base. How serious are these cases, are we seeing a big turnover of patients or are the same patients in hospital the whole time. We really need more data, the only thing we can be sure of is deaths and icu numbers


  • #6968
    ShyMets
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,469 ✭✭✭ShyMets


    odyssey06 wrote: »
    You aren't the sole person exposed to the risks you take though... unless you are living in a bubble apart from trips to the pub.
    Same reasoning behind drink driving laws, anti smoking laws in public.

    Very true. I'm not the sole person exposed to risk. But i take a risk based approach. I've been in the same pub three times over the last four weeks. Each time I arrived in the mid afternoon as I knew it would be quite. Which it was. Nobody was within two meters of each other. The most pints I had was three and then left.

    Personally I judged the risk low and proceeded on that basis. Others would judge the risk greater and not go and that's fine. Ultimately living with this virus will come down to a number if things, personal responsibility being one of the main ones


  • #6969
    seanb85
    Closed Accounts Posts: 189 ✭✭seanb85


    Arghus wrote: »
    I'll be accused of being a doom mongering curtin twitcher by the usual suspects for stating this but the amount of people in hospital, while still relatively low, has doubled in the last 15 days.

    It's certainly the most worrying aspect of this, in about 8 weeks if this trend continues we could be at 800 in hospital.


  • #6970
    Strumms
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,822 ✭✭✭✭Strumms


    niallo27 wrote: »
    Without downplaying it, its doesn't seem to be transferring to ICU numbers and one is a bit outbreak in a single hospital. It has doubled from a low base. How serious are these cases, are we seeing a big turnover of patients or are the same patients in hospital the whole time. We really need more data, the only thing we can be sure of is deaths and icu numbers

    We need more data ? I don’t think micro analysis of the situation brings any more palatable vistas. You are never going to get breakdowns on serious / not so serious... and if you did you’d just get the money reopen everything muppets to massage numbers towards a certain outlook... deaths, icu and hospital numbers as well as discharged patients is enough.....


  • #6971
    Pulsating Star
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 702 ✭✭✭Pulsating Star


    What Username Guidelines wrote: »
    Do you know much about previous pandemics (58/68) and how that strain of influenza effected the population? Was it a case of a new strain of flu that no one had immunity to? Or were there some with immunity due to previous/recent flu of different strains?

    I don’t know anything about 58/68 pandemic but I recall reading the reason most thought older people were not primarily affected by the 1918 flu was because many of them had acquired immunity from a similar strain in the 1800’s.


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  • #6972
    DebDynamite
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,727 ✭✭✭DebDynamite


    Strumms wrote: »
    No other country on earth, will there be this obsession, absolute fruitcake obsession in the middle of a pandemic, a deadly pandemic of opening a non essential indoor business... where people consume significant levels of a drink that can, will impair judgments and encourage behaviors and lack of judgment that will lead to the spread of this awful virus... MAD. I’m a pub guy but I haven’t set foot in one since this shît show...I usually go to the pub after gym on Friday for food and drinks.. last Friday we sat in the car eating a salad... not exactly great but we were starving, 25 minutes from home and unwilling to risk it for a biscuit, or some roast beef.... zero point, WHY ???

    Maybe if you stepped inside a pub/restaurant since they reopened, you will see that it can definitely be done safely. Now, nightclubs and late bars are another story altogether...


  • #6973
    Non solum non ambulabit
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,089 ✭✭✭Non solum non ambulabit


    seanb85 wrote: »
    It's certainly the most worrying aspect of this, in about 8 weeks if this trend continues we could be at 800 in hospital.

    For context, we had over 3000 cases in the last month and hospital numbers have gone up by around 25.

    If the trend continues we'll have around 50 more in hospital.


  • #6974
    seanb85
    Closed Accounts Posts: 189 ✭✭seanb85


    Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »
    For context, we had over 3000 cases in the last month and hospital numbers have gone up by around 25.

    If the trend continues we'll have around 50 more in hospital.

    That presumes case numbers have been flat and will stay that way. Case numbers are trending upwards for 10 weeks now.


  • #6975
    Strumms
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,822 ✭✭✭✭Strumms


    DebDynamite wrote: »
    Maybe if you stepped inside a pub/restaurant since they reopened, you will see that it can definitely be done safely. Now nightclubs and late bars are another story altogether...

    I’m not saying it can’t be done. Because it CAN... but will it 100% or even close ? No, not with drink, people, that environment, the effects that the chemical alcohol has on the brain and subsequent behaviors in a social setting.... just because a pub isn’t a nightclub or a late bar doesn’t mean a similar risk isn’t evident.


  • #6976
    Wolf359f
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,420 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    niallo27 wrote: »
    Without downplaying it, its doesn't seem to be transferring to ICU numbers and one is a bit outbreak in a single hospital. It has doubled from a low base. How serious are these cases, are we seeing a big turnover of patients or are the same patients in hospital the whole time. We really need more data, the only thing we can be sure of is deaths and icu numbers

    The outbreak involves Beaumont hospital, of the 15 cases there, 3 patients and 2 staff members were positive. So at most so far, 5 of the 15 cases are related to the outbreak.


  • #6977
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Strumms wrote: »
    No other country on earth, will there be this obsession, absolute fruitcake obsession in the middle of a pandemic, a deadly pandemic of opening a non essential indoor business... where people consume significant levels of a drink that can, will impair judgments and encourage behaviors and lack of judgment that will lead to the spread of this awful virus... MAD. I’m a pub guy but I haven’t set foot in one since this shît show...I usually go to the pub after gym on Friday for food and drinks.. last Friday we sat in the car eating a salad... not exactly great but we were starving, 25 minutes from home and unwilling to risk it for a biscuit, or some roast beef.... zero point, WHY ???
    No other country on earth will have the discussion because they're already open in every other country on earth.


  • #6978
    Juwwi
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,266 ✭✭✭Juwwi


    Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »
    For context, we had over 3000 cases in the last month and hospital numbers have gone up by around 25.

    If the trend continues we'll have around 50 more in hospital.

    That's presuming it continues in under 45 year old's .

    It's likely the more young people that keep getting this disease they'll start passing it onto older people resulting in more hospital admissions.


  • #6979
    DebDynamite
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,727 ✭✭✭DebDynamite


    Strumms wrote: »
    I’m not saying it can’t be done. Because it CAN... but will it 100% or even close ? No, not with drink, people, that environment, the effects that the chemical alcohol has on the brain and subsequent behaviors in a social setting.... just because a pub isn’t a nightclub or a late bar doesn’t mean a similar risk isn’t evident.

    Maybe it depends on where the pub is. I’d be socializing in town in Dublin and apart from the company i’m with, I wouldn’t know anyone else in the whole place. Now, I’d imagine if was in a smaller town, where people are much more likely to know other people in the pub, there’d be more mingling going on and social distancing would be much more difficult.


  • #6980
    timsey tiger
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,768 ✭✭✭timsey tiger


    AdamD wrote: »
    No other country on earth will have the discussion because they're already open in every other country on earth.

    Saudi Arabia?


  • #6981
    Goldengirl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,975 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    Jim_Hodge wrote: »
    I'd see that as a preference myself but what about in areas, like where we are, with almost non existent broadband and not even a mobile phone signal in the house? Not all students would be able to use online classes. If you have a few in the same house equipment could also be an issue. There's also a possible issue with minors being at home unsupervised

    Yes. Some schools getting notebooks from funding or renting for kids that need them
    Only talking of secondary , but think if schools open only 50% parents would have to be half time also , or share between them .
    This should have been addressed in the last few months , this all open at the same time is a recipe for disaster .
    While broadband is ideal , there is nothing wrong with good old fashioned allocated home work .


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  • #6982
    Plumbthedepths
    Closed Accounts Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭Plumbthedepths


    timsey tiger wrote: »
    Saudi Arabia?

    More to do with backwards religion than Covid . The sale and consumption of alcohol is banned in SA although alot of the locals head over the border on a regular basis for a cold one.


  • #6983
    Wolf359f
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,420 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »
    For context, we had over 3000 cases in the last month and hospital numbers have gone up by around 25.

    If the trend continues we'll have around 50 more in hospital.
    It's certainly trending upwards at a higher rate than cases are growing.
    1758jKn
    https://ibb.co/1758jKn


  • #6984
    Strumms
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,822 ✭✭✭✭Strumms


    DebDynamite wrote: »
    Maybe it depends on where the pub is. I’d be socializing in town in Dublin and apart from the company i’m with, I wouldn’t know anyone else in the whole place. Now, I’d imagine if was in a smaller town, where people are much more likely to know other people in the pub, there’d be more mingling going on and social distancing would be much more difficult.

    Good point. Imagine though a pub in x location being given an ok, and a pub the sizable equivalent a kilometer away being told no.


  • #6985
    Arghus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,193 ✭✭✭✭Arghus


    niallo27 wrote: »
    Without downplaying it, its doesn't seem to be transferring to ICU numbers and one is a bit outbreak in a single hospital. It has doubled from a low base. How serious are these cases, are we seeing a big turnover of patients or are the same patients in hospital the whole time. We really need more data, the only thing we can be sure of is deaths and icu numbers

    I fully agree that more data would be great.

    It isn't transferring to ICU numbers...yet.

    But there's a pattern: you see an increase in case numbers, then a delay until you see an increase in admissions to hospital, then a further delay until you see a further increase in ICU numbers and then a delay again until there is an increase in deaths. If hospital admissions continue to increase then it's inevitable that at some stage ICU numbers will eventually increase too. A couple of weeks ago I was reading here that case numbers didn't really matter because hospital admissions were still low. Now, of course, the goalposts have moved to ICU numbers are still low.

    People say here that it's linked to an outbreak in a single hospital, maybe it is, maybe it isn't: it's anonymous people on boards saying this - claims of insider knowledge must be taken with a healthy dose of skepticism.

    But even before this the numbers were still on the rise. The "single outbreak" is the latest rationalisation to explain away what is going on: more cases were expected, cases are still pretty low, positivity rate hasn't increased, they've increased testing, it's only clusters, it's only clusters in meat plants, community transmission hasn't increased, hospital admissions haven't increased, ICU admissions haven't increased...


  • #6986
    Widdensushi
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,546 ✭✭✭Widdensushi


    Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »
    For context, we had over 3000 cases in the last month and hospital numbers have gone up by around 25.

    If the trend continues we'll have around 50 more in hospital.

    That's assuming that nobody gets discharged


  • #6987
    Non solum non ambulabit
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,089 ✭✭✭Non solum non ambulabit


    seanb85 wrote: »
    That presumes case numbers have been flat and will stay that way. Case numbers are trending upwards for 10 weeks now.

    Correct but very slowly. If it stays like this we'll be in fine shape.

    Lets not forget we are in great shape at the moment. 6 ICU, no deaths in weeks, and extremely low hospitalised.


  • #6988
    drunkmonkey
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,049 ✭✭✭✭drunkmonkey


    Queried wrote: »
    If you live with a close contact of a confirmed case do you have to restrict your movements? Can you go to work/kids go to school? Looked at HSE website and it just confused me.

    Living with someone who is a confirmed close contact
    You may be at risk of catching coronavirus if you are living with a close contact and they become unwell.

    If they develop coronavirus, you will become a close contact. This means you will have to restrict your movements. They will have to self-isolate.

    https://www2.hse.ie/conditions/coronavirus/close-contact-and-casual-contact.html

    My reading of it is if there asymptomatic and your showing no symptoms it's ok to carry on until there confirmed positive.

    Whether that's the right thing to do or not is questionable. Average time for showing symptoms is 4/5 days.


  • #6989
    Arghus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,193 ✭✭✭✭Arghus


    AdamD wrote: »
    No other country on earth will have the discussion because they're already open in every other country on earth.

    How can you post this when it's so clearly not true?


  • #6990
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 5,917 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    AdamD wrote: »
    No other country on earth will have the discussion because they're already open in every other country on earth.

    Depends what you mean by open, two friends of mine are in Europe, one in Amsterdam and one in Lisbon. Talked to them both about two weeks ago and apparently Amsterdam city officials have banned the sale of alcohol in the red light distract and the surrounding areas, while in Lisbon restaurants and bars can only serve alcohol until 8pm


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  • #6991
    Strumms
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,822 ✭✭✭✭Strumms


    AdamD wrote: »
    No other country on earth will have the discussion because they're already open in every other country on earth.

    Unfortunately a pub and Irish psychological/behavioral tendencies and habits are not compatible with covid.

    In France I’m less worried. They are a considerate, intelligent, relaxed species. Lots of outdoor terrace bars too. I’d say go ahead, here no fûckin way.


This discussion has been closed.
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