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Covid 19 Part XXII-30,360 in ROI(1,781 deaths) 8,035 in NI (568 deaths)(10/09)Read OP

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Comments

  • #6212
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,450 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    Oranage2 wrote: »
    Not too flawed, it predicted the 200 cases a few days before, but with variable numbers and complex matrices it's hard to get it all down to an exact science

    Utter nonsense, you were throwing out figures all over the place. Every week it was 500 cases next week, next week came and went, 500 next week.

    Whatever this formula was it wasn't right


  • #6213
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,450 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    Yeah im thinking we’ll see some sort of backlog clearance today, which is ****e

    At this stage its a guessing game really. If there's a backlog of cases added some are at least a week old but that won't be mentioned in any press release


  • #6214
    Happydays2020
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,677 ✭✭✭Happydays2020


    Plumbthedepths wrote: »
    We are facing a 30 billion euro deficit because of Covid and that's before we borrow 16 billion to hand over to Brussels to help other countries. Honestly I can't see anything other than an economic sh*tstorm on the horizon.

    I fear you are right and the Hogan affair won’t have helped us in Brussels.

    To think that if the Snapper was made today, your man would have to order a meal to have with his pint - ridiculous.


  • #6215
    Happydays2020
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,677 ✭✭✭Happydays2020


    stephenjmcd wrote: »
    At this stage its a guessing game really. If there's a backlog of cases added some are at least a week old but that won't be mentioned in any press release

    But it will keep Sunday negative. Great for the radio shows.


  • #6216
    the merchant
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 547 ✭✭✭the merchant


    230 new cases


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  • #6217
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,450 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    the merchant wrote: »
    230 new cases

    There we go there's the outstanding ones for the week. Que social media meltdown


  • #6218
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,751 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    stephenjmcd wrote: »
    There we go there's the outstanding ones for the week. Que social media meltdown

    Thats not as bad as i was expecting ill be honest


  • #6219
    Benimar
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,790 ✭✭✭Benimar


    the merchant wrote: »
    230 new cases

    That makes 824 cases in last week I think. 118 per day.


  • #6220
    odyssey06
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,759 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    Jimi H wrote: »
    Is there any scientific evidence/research to suggest the lower mortality rates relate to a milder strain of the disease? Or that it’s down to the more vulnerable taking extra precautions?

    Nothing solid yet on virus weakening genetically, I read something in New scientist to the effect that there is a strain that seems to be more contagious.

    I chucked out some ideas on this post:

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=114520996

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • #6221
    Happydays2020
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,677 ✭✭✭Happydays2020


    Germany debates cutting isolation to five days

    Derek Scally
    Germany is debating a shorter self-isolation period – five days instead of 14 – for individuals infected and potentially infected with Covid-19 after chancellor Angela Merkel’s virologist adviser suggested such a move would be risky but workable.
    Prof Christian Drosten of Berlin’s Charité clinic said the increased risk of shorter isolation needed to be weighed up against the greater likelihood of more people adhering to such shorter isolation and the economic cost of extended work absences.
    His proposal was aimed at so-called Covid “source clusters” – virus spread within a family, a flatshare or among party-goers – and not at people arriving in Germany from abroad. Germany operates a 14-day quarantine policy for people returning from high-risk countries.
    “By saying five days I am reaching the pain threshold of epidemiology,” he said. “It is a bold claim to say, after five days the infectious phase is over.”
    He made his proposal with an eye on a possible rise in infections in the autumn/win- ter, and employer concerns of a looming sick leave tidal wave.
    It remains contested whether after five days the virus concentration in the throat is still high enough to make transmission likely.
    The Charité virologist, credited with Germany’s early success in Covid track- and-trace, pointed out that the infectious period begins two days before the first symptoms and lasts up to five days. Factoring in this, along with the delays between test and result, he suggested it “made no sense” at a late stage of the infection cycle to impose a full 14 days of isolation.
    Prof Drosten also suggested a shift towards testing not just for Covid-19 but also a second test to see whether a person is still infectious.
    Germany’s federal health minister Jens Spahn told journalists yesterday he would consider a shorter isolation period in discussions with regional leaders before a new pandemic rulebook is presented on October 1st.
    “In the end we have to weigh up in this phase of the pandemic how to balance everyday life and infection protection,” he said.
    Anxious to avoid a second lockdown, Mr Spahn admitted this week that, based on today’s knowledge, Germany should never have shut shops in the spring lockdown.
    A week after 40,000 people demonstrated in Berlin against Covid-19 restrictions, many Berlin politicians welcomed Prof Drosten’s suggestion as sensible.
    Germany’s Covid-19 death rate lies at 9,319, with new infections running at 7.8 per 100,000 of population.


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  • #6222
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 12,460 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    odyssey06 wrote: »
    Nothing solid yet on virus weakening genetically, I read something in New scientist to the effect that there is a strain that seems to be more contagious.

    I chucked out some ideas on this post:

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=114520996

    I was thinking vit D too... Any genetic evidence to suggest a different strain that may be more contagious but less damaging?


  • #6223
    Oranage2
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,129 ✭✭✭✭Oranage2


    the merchant wrote: »
    230 new cases

    There's no sugar-coating that number, it's extremely high.


  • #6224
    Looney1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 122 ✭✭Looney1


    What's the latest number on hospital admissions??


  • #6225
    Happydays2020
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,677 ✭✭✭Happydays2020


    igCorcaigh wrote: »
    I was thinking vit D too... Any genetic evidence to suggest a different strain that may be more contagious but less damaging?

    In the US they mentioned before the Chinese (Washington) and the European strain (NYC). Perhaps at this stage there is a different strain.


  • #6226
    majcos
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 596 ✭✭✭majcos


    Jimi H wrote: »
    Is there any scientific evidence/research to suggest the lower mortality rates relate to a milder strain of the disease? Or that it’s down to the more vulnerable taking extra precautions?
    Hard to know yet. There are lots of theories around this but nothing concrete at this stage.

    A number of mutations have been identified but it hasn’t mutated as much as other viruses can. It may have been circulating in population for much longer and was only recognised as a new virus when a more severe mutation made people sicker and caused deaths in younger fitter people. This might explain why less people died in China. They were exposed to the initial milder version and hence had a degree of immunity to the subsequent more severe infection. Deadlier version may have spread to Italy and elsewhere. There are also reports that a mutation made strain more infectious so spread was exponentially higher when it travelled to Europe and US etc. Mutations have been scientifically documented but analysis of what those mutations mean in terms of how the disease is/will behave in terms of its spread and severity of illness is still theoretical.

    It is likely that it will mutate further over time which could be nastier but hopefully it will mutate to a more benign disease. Slow mutation is good news from a vaccination perspective.

    Influenza seems to mutate more rapidly which is why vaccination is recommended every year. Some years the vaccine is more on point than others to protect against the strains of influenza circulating and some years the strain itself is more deadly to begin with, so number of flu deaths vary.


  • #6227
    Always_Running
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭Always_Running


    Benimar wrote: »
    That makes 824 cases in last week I think. 118 per day.

    Correct. Last Saturday it was also 118 per day. The back log cases throw in has become very annoying, probably is for the best to only report weekly numbers.


  • #6228
    odyssey06
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,759 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    igCorcaigh wrote: »
    I was thinking vit D too... Any genetic evidence to suggest a different strain that may be more contagious but less damaging?

    This is the latest I've read, other posters may have further updates:
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/health/2020-08-15/coronavirus-new-strains-mutation-vaccine-headlines/12519576

    There's no concrete evidence that this, or any other, mutation has changed the virulence of the virus, — that is, the severity of the disease it causes — says Edward Holmes, an evolutionary virologist at the University of Sydney.
    The reason D614G has attracted more interest than many of the other mutations, which could fall anywhere among the 30,000-odd building blocks of the virus's genome, is that it's on the spike protein. This protein makes up the bumps on the virus that allow it to enter our cells, and is the target of all the vaccines currently being developed...
    "However, there is some evidence the D614G mutation increases the infectivity of SARS-CoV-2 in a laboratory setting," he says.
    "I also suspect that it gives some boost to the transmissibility of the virus in nature, although this is not completely proven yet and I doubt that any effect is substantial.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • #6229
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,450 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    Oranage2 wrote: »
    There's no sugar-coating that number, it's extremely high.

    Are you just purposefully trying to wind up people?

    You know exactly why its high as other posters have said a large backlog of cases from during the week.

    Its not sugar coating when its explainable. But sure no point in telling you that, nor will it be mentioned in the press release im sure


  • #6230
    majcos
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 596 ✭✭✭majcos


    Looney1 wrote: »
    What's the latest number on hospital admissions??
    47 confirmed cases in hospitals last night as of 8pm with 7 confirmed cases in ICUs.


  • #6231
    fritzelly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,148 ✭✭✭✭fritzelly


    the merchant wrote: »
    230 new cases

    Why do they keep throwing out these big numbers on a Saturday - is it to frighten the bejaysus out of everyone planning a Saturday night out


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  • #6232
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,450 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    Always_Running wrote: »
    Correct. Last Saturday it was also 118 per day. The back log cases throw in has become very annoying, probably is for the best to only report weekly numbers.

    Relatively stable for the week, would ideally like to see that coming down next week as the full effects of the measures brought in 3 weeks should be coming through in numbers


  • #6233
    zerosugarbuzz
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,224 ✭✭✭zerosugarbuzz


    stephenjmcd wrote: »
    Are you just purposefully trying to wind up people?

    You know exactly why its high as other posters have said a large backlog of cases from during the week.

    Its not sugar coating when its explainable. But sure no point in telling you that, nor will it be mentioned in the press release im sure

    True, and also does it really matter if there are a thousand cases if there are few hospital admissions and no deaths.


  • #6234
    Oranage2
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,129 ✭✭✭✭Oranage2


    stephenjmcd wrote: »
    Are you just purposefully trying to wind up people?

    You know exactly why its high as other posters have said a large backlog of cases from during the week.

    Its not sugar coating when its explainable. But sure no point in telling you that, nor will it be mentioned in the press release im sure

    The number is huge, our previous five day average is huge. Our weekly numbers are at a sustained high and one of the worst in Europe. Our hospital admissions have doubled and quadrupled in the previous few weeks, and no, not all those covid patients went in with broken arms like you're trying to claim. But sure I'm on the wind up.....


  • #6235
    pc7
    Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 14,279 Mod ✭✭✭✭pc7


    Do they hold the backlog to Saturday to try make people think before partying? It just makes no sense. So many here can see the positive swabs etc, why don’t the journalists call them on this? Or do they? I don’t watch the briefings anymore.


  • #6236
    seanb85
    Closed Accounts Posts: 189 ✭✭seanb85


    stephenjmcd wrote: »
    Relatively stable for the week, would ideally like to see that coming down next week as the full effects of the measures brought in 3 weeks should be coming through in numbers

    Do you think those measures will have much impact? Seemed like a bit of window dressing really. If there is any drop you'd expect a rising trend to resume once the opening of schools has an effect.


  • #6237
    SPDUB
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,348 ✭✭✭SPDUB


    Oranage2 wrote: »
    There's no sugar-coating that number, it's extremely high.
    The outbreak I heard about contributed at least 35 to those numbers and that figure was while it was still being investigated so I wouldn't be surprised it was a bigger figure in the end


  • #6238
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,450 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    Oranage2 wrote: »
    The number is huge, our previous five day average is huge. Our weekly numbers are at a sustained high and one of the worst in Europe. Our hospital admissions have doubled and quadrupled in the previous few weeks, and no, not all those covid patients went in with broken arms like you're trying to claim. But sure I'm on the wind up.....

    Have you literally not read why the number is big today and how the cases this week at last week are very stable in terms of average per day.

    Where did i say they went in with broken arms ? I've made the point previously if your getting admitted to hosptial your tested but not sure what point your trying to make here.

    Yup that post and the other proves your on a wind up. Won't be engaging with you further because its utterly pointless and a waste of time


  • #6239
    Plumbthedepths
    Closed Accounts Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭Plumbthedepths


    Saw this on another thread , a good read and worthy of a share.

    https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/2020/09/04/covid-why-terminology-really-matters/


  • #6240
    giveitholly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,240 ✭✭✭giveitholly


    SPDUB wrote: »
    The outbreak I heard about contributed at least 35 to those numbers and that figure was while it was still being investigated so I wouldn't be surprised it was a bigger figure in the end

    Is that the outbreak in Dublin somewhere? And in what setting did it break out in do u know?


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  • #6241
    Oranage2
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,129 ✭✭✭✭Oranage2


    SPDUB wrote: »
    The outbreak I heard about contributed at least 35 to those numbers and that figure was while it was still being investigated so I wouldn't be surprised it was a bigger figure in the end

    What's this outbreak? That guy's numbers are always accurate, maybe they've added them in already


This discussion has been closed.
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