Covid 19 Part XXII-30,360 in ROI(1,781 deaths) 8,035 in NI (568 deaths)(10/09)Read OP

Psychiatric Patrick · 02-09-2020 09:26AM

There is a bus to the city centre that passes the house.

It is a double decker and Three out four times this morning I've seen that the bus has a person in seat that is visible from the outside.

Aren't they supposed to be sitting a seat apart?

02-09-2020 09:27AM

Boggles wrote: »

Well that is certainly up for debate and experts in the field can't agree, then we won't.

The narrative been peddled that we will have a huge explosion of cancers because of lack of screening doesn't ring true even if you believe that screening is a magic bullet.

If it were that "vital" we would be back screening.

There won't be a huge explosion of cancer. But the death rate will likely increase as we are not catching it early enough.

caveat emptor · 02-09-2020 09:29AM

Spain not looking good at all. Upward trajectory continuing past US. Our curve looks very different to other countries with the case confirmation shuffling.

https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-09-01/august-ends-with-5000-new-coronavirus-cases-a-day-in-spain-five-times-those-from-july.html

This, Simón explained, coincides with all of the journeys people have taken in order to enjoy their summer vacations. “While these [journeys] have been fewer than in other years, they have happened,” he said. “There has been a mixing of people from areas that had high transmission rates and others that had very low ones. We don’t know if the return from holidays in July could have affected Madrid, but it is true that many Madrileños have been outside with other groups and the chance that this has happened is high,” Simón explained, admitting that the interaction of travelers in the capital “causes concern.” “Madrid has a high risk because fortunately and unfortunately it is the basic hub for all transportation in Spain,” he concluded.

A warning

The situation in the Madrid region is particularly concerning because hospital occupation continues to rise there. Since the Health Ministry began publishing this data point, on August 20, Covid-19 patients have risen from 1,245 to 2,128, which is an increase of 70%. Intensive care unit (ICU) admissions, meanwhile, have gone up from 126 to 218, which is a 73% rise. While the occupation of beds by coronavirus patients is at 16%, which is far from capacity, this could change in just weeks if current growth rates hold steady.

Plumbthedepths · 02-09-2020 09:31AM

A recent study from the UK. It would be strange to suggest similar would not happen here.

http://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/clinical/clinical-specialties/cancer/cancer-deaths-in-england-could-rise-by-a-fifth-due-to-covid-19-finds-study/20040725.article

Marty Bird · 02-09-2020 09:32AM

Psychiatric Patrick wrote: »

There is a bus to the city centre that passes the house.

It is a double decker and Three out four times this morning I've seen that the bus has a person in seat that is visible from the outside.

Aren't they supposed to be sitting a seat apart?

Close the curtains and go back to bed.

stephenjmcd · 02-09-2020 09:33AM

Boggles wrote: »

Well that is certainly up for debate and experts in the field can't agree, then we won't.

The narrative been peddled that we will have a huge explosion of cancers because of lack of screening doesn't ring true even if you believe that screening is a magic bullet.

If it were that "vital" we would be back screening.

Breast check means I've 3 family members who are still here because of it.

As one of their doctors said, "If you hadn't of gone to the appointment we would likely have seen a very different outcome".

That appointment was a normal routine screen.

I'd call that important if their own doctor thought the outcome would have been very different without screening and as it stands now that screening isn't available

Boggles · 02-09-2020 09:33AM

Deleted User wrote: »

There won't be a huge explosion of cancer. But the death rate will likely increase as we are not catching it early enough.

Or it could decrease if the sole focus is on treating people with actual breast cancer and not spending time and money on screening the vast majority of people who don't have breast cancer.

That is the debate.

But the actual reality is, if instances of the virus surge again in the community, actual treatment of cancer patients will be effected and that is where you will see an increase in poor outcomes.

Boggles · 02-09-2020 09:36AM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Breast check means I've 3 family members who are still here because of it.

Statistically they would still be here even if they weren't screened.

Now if they couldn't get the care they needed because of a deadly pathogen surging in the communities and in the hospitals then they may have been more adversely effected.

Hector Savage · 02-09-2020 09:37AM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Spain not looking good at all. Upward trajectory continuing past US. Our curve looks very different to other countries with the case confirmation shuffling.

https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-09-01/august-ends-with-5000-new-coronavirus-cases-a-day-in-spain-five-times-those-from-july.html

From the start I knew Spain would be the worst country in the world to deal with this - not just Europe, the world.

Bookmark it.

worst case rate.
worst death rate.
worst economy crash.
most draconian mask laws.

Third world shithole.

Even Italy has their act together now.

stephenjmcd · 02-09-2020 09:39AM

Boggles wrote: »

Statistically they would still be here even if they weren't screened.

Now if they couldn't get the care they needed because of a deadly pathogen surging in the communities and in the hospitals then they may have been more adversely effected.

Yeah I'll take the word of their consultant thanks.

Due to breast check it was caught early and we're all thankful for that.

Boggles · 02-09-2020 09:46AM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Yeah I'll take the word of their consultant thanks.

Due to breast check it was caught early and we're all thankful for that.

Good for you and them.

But my point remains, looking at the macro suspending screening will not lead to Cancer Armageddon as the "just the flu bro's" like to bleat out.

What will have a definite adverse effect is if treatment of actual cancer patients is curtailed because of a re-surge in infections, not to mention how vulnerable the patients themselves would be if they contract Covid 19, particularly if they undergoing "harsh" treatment.

wadacrack · 02-09-2020 09:50AM

40 now in hospital, Can see restrictions being imposed very soon as we are at 96% capacity at the moment

Plumbthedepths · 02-09-2020 09:56AM

Boggles wrote: »

Good for you and them.

But my point remains, looking at the macro suspending screening will not lead to Cancer Armageddon as the "just the flu bro's" like to bleat out.

What will have a definite adverse effect is if treatment of actual cancer patients is curtailed because of a re-surge in infections, not to mention how vulnerable the patients themselves would be if they contract Covid 19, particularly if they undergoing "harsh" treatment.

'just the flu bro's' is fast becoming the substitute for shouting down others in place of a certain other phrase.

Professor Crown is also calling for screening to resume. Whilst he acknowledges the curtailing of screening early on.
I'd go with his thoughts rather than some randomer here.

https://www.newstalk.com/news/prof-john-crown-resuming-non-covid-services-cant-put-indefinite-long-finger-1018323

Away With The Fairies · 02-09-2020 09:58AM

wadacrack wrote: »

40 now in hospital, Can see restrictions being imposed very soon as we are at 96% capacity at the moment

How are we at 96% capacity? I know there's people in for other things but Jesus, we really won't be able to cope with this and the flu.

Boggles · 02-09-2020 10:01AM

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

'just the flu bro's' is fast becoming the substitute for shouting down others in place of a certain other phrase.

Professor Crown is also calling for screening to resume. Whilst he acknowledges the curtailing of screening early on.
I'd go with his thoughts rather than some randomer here.

https://www.newstalk.com/news/prof-john-crown-resuming-non-covid-services-cant-put-indefinite-long-finger-1018323

Article if from May.

And what he called for resumed in early July.

seamus · 02-09-2020 10:01AM

Boggles wrote: »

You think "outbreaks" in schools should be kept secret?

Apparently that is the policy, we only know about this one because the principal went public, it may not be the first.

It's not the policy to keep it secret. It's merely that there is no obligation on a school to tell the whole community about every case. There's no purpose to it. The class where the case arose will all be notified because they have to be sent home, and any other close contacts will be informed.
Nobody else is entitled to be told, no matter how much they want to bang on about their errant idea of "transparency".

There isn't a chance in hell that another confirmed case arose in a school before this one and the media didn't know about it.

I'd have a major issue with anything less than complete transparency as to how much a role schools play in transmission of this virus, if they go down that route, speculation and fear will fill the vacuum.

The public being informed about each and every case in every school, tells the public absolutely nothing about transmission rates or the risks in schools.

That's the kind of information that public health bodies collate and calculate. You can't make informed risk assessments based on headlines and whatsapp messages.

The only reason people really want to know is because they love to gossip and to get themselves wound up.

It's pretty fúcked up that we apply the gold standard of test and trace to meat factories but when it comes to schools, sure send the siblings in, don't test, be grand.

The policy is the exact same as the meat factories. Your getting hysterical about this doesn't change that fact.

If someone working in a meat factory is a sibling of a close contact, they will likewise be sent into work.

stephenjmcd · 02-09-2020 10:02AM

wadacrack wrote: »

40 now in hospital, Can see restrictions being imposed very soon as we are at 96% capacity at the moment

There's 19 less general beds available last night compared to same night last week.

287 critical care beds in use compared to 286 same time last week. 41 available as of last night.

Boggles · 02-09-2020 10:03AM

seamus wrote: »

The only reason people really want to know is because they love to gossip and to get themselves wound up.

Absolute horséshít if there is a significant outbreak in the school your kids attend you are telling me you wouldn't want to know about?

Plumbthedepths · 02-09-2020 10:03AM

Boggles wrote: »

Article if from May.

And what he called for resumed in early July.

More current. From yesterday.

https://www.happyscribe.com/public/today-with-claire-byrne/covid-19-cancer-screening

PCros · 02-09-2020 10:05AM

wadacrack wrote: »

40 now in hospital, Can see restrictions being imposed very soon as we are at 96% capacity at the moment

Where are those figures from?

seamus · 02-09-2020 10:06AM

wadacrack wrote: »

40 now in hospital, Can see restrictions being imposed very soon as we are at 96% capacity at the moment

You're getting confused. There are 40 in hospital, not in ICU.

We have 53 ICU beds available, this can be expanded to something like 150 if necessary. There are 260 general beds available, afaik this can be expanded to 1,000 or something like that.

In short, we have a lot, lot of capacity.

Plumbthedepths · 02-09-2020 10:06AM

wadacrack wrote: »

40 now in hospital, Can see restrictions being imposed very soon as we are at 96% capacity at the moment

What restrictions do you have in mind?

02-09-2020 10:07AM

wadacrack wrote: »

40 now in hospital, Can see restrictions being imposed very soon as we are at 96% capacity at the moment

I believe we generally have quite a few discharges around midweek so I imagine that number will drop.

Not sure exactly were you are getting the capacity stats but we had 100s in hospital before and they weren't overwhelmed. i imagine we can handle 40.

We also already have a long list of restrictions.

stephenjmcd · 02-09-2020 10:08AM

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

More current. From yesterday.

https://www.happyscribe.com/public/today-with-claire-byrne/covid-19-cancer-screening

The chairman of the GP Committee of the Irish Medical Organisation (IMO), Dr Denis McCauley, said that while more patients are coming forward, there are further “pinch points” developing in the hospital system.

He said the provision of non-Covid services in the hospital is “still a major issue”.

“One of the big workload issues we’re having at the present moment in general practice is trying to get services for people – some with cancer – in the hospital,” he told RTÉ's Morning Ireland.

“Non-Covid services in hospitals are not up to a level that I would feel are safe and that I would be comfortable with

Plumbthedepths · 02-09-2020 10:09AM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

The chairman of the GP Committee of the Irish Medical Organisation (IMO), Dr Denis McCauley, said that while more patients are coming forward, there are further “pinch points” developing in the hospital system.

He said the provision of non-Covid services in the hospital is “still a major issue”.

“One of the big workload issues we’re having at the present moment in general practice is trying to get services for people – some with cancer – in the hospital,” he told RTÉ's Morning Ireland.

“Non-Covid services in hospitals are not up to a level that I would feel are safe and that I would be comfortable with

Ah but an 'expert' here suggests it's grand.

stephenjmcd · 02-09-2020 10:10AM

seamus wrote: »

You're getting confused. There are 40 in hospital, not in ICU.

We have 53 ICU beds available, this can be expanded to something like 150 if necessary. There are 260 general beds available, afaik this can be expanded to 1,000 or something like that.

In short, we have a lot, lot of capacity.

Critical care beds available 437
Total open 356
Occupied 287

Poulgorm · 02-09-2020 10:14AM

The HSE are very slow updating their contact tracing app. The county by county section (under "The national picture") is very informative, as it shows the extent of the problem in each county.

As of this morning (Wednesday), the latest figures for each county are for last Sunday.

Sloppy. Out of date information is no use.

wadacrack · 02-09-2020 10:15AM

Deleted User wrote: »

I believe we generally have quite a few discharges around midweek so I imagine that number will drop.

Not sure exactly were you are getting the capacity stats but we had 100s in hospital before and they weren't overwhelmed. i imagine we can handle 40.

We also already have a long list of restrictions.

96% capacity was the number used by Cillian De Gascun last night. I'm sure he aware of the numbers than any of us on this forum. Posters here acting like I get some sort of joy out of posting that. Bit strange. Theirs a precedence for the Government implementing strict restrictions pretty quickly. I was very surprised when Laois, Kildare and Offaly were put into lockdown. The ban on people attending sports seem to come out of nowhere. Clearly their is alot of worry about the hospitals capacity to deal with any sort of surge.

Boggles · 02-09-2020 10:17AM

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

More current. From yesterday.

https://www.happyscribe.com/public/today-with-claire-byrne/covid-19-cancer-screening

Did you actual listen to it? He agrees with what I said.

He says quite clearly the resources that are there should be prioritized for people who are symptomatic going forward through the crisis.

seamus · 02-09-2020 10:17AM

Boggles wrote: »

Absolute horséshít if there is a significant outbreak in the school your kids attend you are telling me you wouldn't want to know about?

Now you're changing the goalposts - "significant".
If a class is closed in my child's school due to covid, I will know.

Outside of that I'm not all that interested in knowing how many in that class ultimately test positive. Not only is none of my business, but it's just gossip.

If the outbreak spreads beyond that class, the school will be closed.

Again, publishing the details of every single case in schools, serves absolutely no purpose except gossip.

People should be told what they need to know. That's it.

Covid 19 Part XXII-30,360 in ROI(1,781 deaths) 8,035 in NI (568 deaths)(10/09)Read OP

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