FF/FG/Green Next Government

Bishop of hope · 31-08-2020 02:59PM

Hawthorn Tree wrote: »

It's only 1 seat folks. The other 3 TDs remain.

If Simon goes to Brussels, do people really see Buttimer (FG) replacing Simon after the Golfgate Elite fiasco? After what Dara Murphy did, I hope the people of Cork SC has some cop on.

It looks like a Green seat to lose (Lorna Bogue). She got 9.4% of FPV in 2020.

I tried to explain that yesterday.
Bannasheide thinks its a complete reelection for all seats apparently.

Hawthorn Tree · 31-08-2020 03:00PM

blanch152 wrote: »

Is there a Coveney to succeed Simon? That is the first place FG should look. The name itself should be sufficient to keep them in the hunt. Like it or not, people do vote on the name itself.

FF will have a bigger problem, but why not a solid councillor who can bring their vote with them. What about Mary Rose Desmond, assistant to Martin at one time, hardly a challenge to him, or Colm Kelleher? Mary Rose was only 100 votes behind Bogue in the locals, and she had Terry Shannon splitting the vote. Fergal Dennehy? Don't know him, but anything to the former TD?

Coming fifth leaves her fourth starting out in the race for the bye-election.

FF - 35.5
SF - 24.6
FG - 21.2
Greens - 9.4

That leaves her a long way back. She may also have a problem getting the nomination too, given her clashes with the leadership. While I would love to see another Green in the Dail, increasing the profile for the next general election would probably be the likely outcome.

Couldn't care less about who Sinn Fein put forward, but a convicted gun-runner or drug lord running for them wouldn't make a blind bit of difference to those who vote for them, so would expect them to also be ahead of the Greens. There just don't seem to be enough votes for her.

Neither FF or FG ran a 3rd candidate in 2020. FF will be hoping a nobody from the council can take the Dail seat - very unlikely. FG will opt for Buttimer but given he was Clifden Elite and the 2 month shambles of a government, I believe he has no chance. SF might run a new candidate but I don't see a nobody winning in Cork.

Bogue is known and that FPV in 2020 gives her a superb chance.

Hawthorn Tree · 31-08-2020 03:04PM

Bishop of hope wrote: »

I tried to explain that yesterday.
Bannasheide thinks its a complete reelection for all seats apparently.

I think Blanch thought the same.

Highest FPV usually wins these things.

Bannasidhe · 31-08-2020 03:25PM

Hawthorn Tree wrote: »

It's only 1 seat folks. The other 3 TDs remain.

If Simon goes to Brussels, do people really see Buttimer (FG) replacing Simon after the Golfgate Elite fiasco? After what Dara Murphy did, I hope the people of Cork SC has some cop on.

It looks like a Green seat to lose (Lorna Bogue). She got 9.4% of FPV in 2020.

Murphy was Cork North Central not South Central so honestly not as big a deal in a by election in CSC as you might think.

Bogue has been vocally critical of the Green Party going into gov and was, she claims, suspended for doing so. Her running as a Green is not a certainty by any means. If she did she would be running to be in govt as a TD having disagreed with her party going into gov a few short weeks ago and that would be a campaign rock to throw at her.

It was a 'Green' vote insofar as transfer left worked to their advantage. Not so sure that vote is still there for the Greens.

I really think it is FG's to lose - all depends on who they pick as a candidate.

Bannasidhe · 31-08-2020 03:29PM

Bishop of hope wrote: »

I tried to explain that yesterday.
Bannasheide thinks its a complete reelection for all seats apparently.

I have no idea what Bannasheide thinks but I think It's FG's to lose. It's 'their' seat.

I am disagreeing with you saying FF can win it. I explained why - you continued explaining why you thought FF could.
SF might pull it off...

Bannasidhe · 31-08-2020 03:31PM

Buttimer is FG not FF - apparently some people get confused about that.

StackSteevens · 31-08-2020 03:35PM

Hawthorn Tree wrote: »

FF will opt for Buttimer but given he was Clifden Elite and the 2 month shambles of a government, I believe he has no chance.

Good call! It's very clear that you have your finger right on the pulse of Cork SC! On the basis of your analysis, I'm putting my mortgage on Bogue - to lose!

Hawthorn Tree · 31-08-2020 03:46PM

StackSteevens wrote: »

Good call! It's very clear that you have your finger right on the pulse of Cork SC! On the basis of your analysis, I'm putting my mortgage on Bogue - to lose!

My apologies. The Clifden Elite dinner has me confused. FG will opt for Buttimer but he is goosed. Thats FFG actually

Not even sure FF should bother with this one. FG will want their seat back.

Bishop of hope · 31-08-2020 04:05PM

Bannasidhe wrote: »

Murphy was Cork North Central not South Central so honestly not as big a deal in a by election in CSC as you might think.

Bogue has been vocally critical of the Green Party going into gov and was, she claims, suspended for doing so. Her running as a Green is not a certainty by any means. If she did she would be running to be in govt as a TD having disagreed with her party going into gov a few short weeks ago and that would be a campaign rock to throw at her.

It was a 'Green' vote insofar as transfer left worked to their advantage. Not so sure that vote is still there for the Greens.

I really think it is FG's to lose - all depends on who they pick as a candidate.

Sorry for the slip of the pen.
OK I respect your opinion BTW, but it's just that the GE vote doesn't support your conclusion given FG we're third.
It'd be a great win for FG if they got it but they shouldn't based on the last vote.
It is a one seat election and no party will run more than one candidate so the percentage vote for each party will go to their one candidate and one count should do it probably.

Edgware · 31-08-2020 04:16PM

Bannasidhe wrote: »

I have no idea what Bannasheide thinks but I think It's FG's to lose. It's 'their' seat.

I am disagreeing with you saying FF can win it. I explained why - you continued explaining why you thought FF could.
SF might pull it off...

But does O Laoghaire want another T.D. from Sinn Fein in the constituency? Cushy Butterfield wouldn't allow it in Dublin Central in case she lost the poll topper title

blanch152 · 31-08-2020 04:16PM

Hawthorn Tree wrote: »

I think Blanch thought the same.

Highest FPV usually wins these things.

Rubbish, I didn't think the same, as my post shows.

Again if you look at my last post where I set out the FPV for each party from the last general election

FF - 35.5
SF - 24.6
FG - 21.2
Greens - 9.4

it is a huge stretch to think that the Greens will be highest by FPV. Candidate selection by FF and FG will be crucial, and I put forward some ideas in that post.

blanch152 · 31-08-2020 04:18PM

Hawthorn Tree wrote: »

My apologies. The Clifden Elite dinner has me confused. FG will opt for Buttimer but he is goosed. Thats FFG actually
Not even sure FF should bother with this one. FG will want their seat back.

If it is so plainly obvious that Buttimer will lose, why would FG opt for him? Simon will want a Coveney in line to either mind the seat for him, or replace him in the long run. The question, which I don't know the answer to, is whether there are any likely Coveneys to run.

blanch152 · 31-08-2020 04:27PM

Bannasidhe wrote: »

I have no idea what Bannasheide thinks but I think It's FG's to lose. It's 'their' seat.

I am disagreeing with you saying FF can win it. I explained why - you continued explaining why you thought FF could.
SF might pull it off...

You are most likely to be right.

The last two candidates will be Sinn Fein and whichever of the big parties stay ahead of each other. If the last two are SF and FG, it will be FF transfers to decide. There might be enough transfers from FF to keep SF ahead if they are already a good distance ahead of FG, but if FG have stayed ahead of SF, no contest, it will be FG.

Like you, I think it less likely that FF get ahead of FG, but if they did, FG transfers would definitely favour FF rather than SF, giving FF the seat.

Greens don't have a hope unless the votes of all three of the other parties collapse dramatically. In FPV terms, the lowest total to win in the four bye-elections in 2019 was the 24.1% for Ward in Dublin Mid-West. Going from 9.4% to c 25% looks to be too much of an ask for the Greens, especially when the candidate is not guaranteed selection, and even if she is selected, is not guaranteed party support from the centre.

Hawthorn Tree · 31-08-2020 05:03PM

blanch152 wrote: »

If it is so plainly obvious that Buttimer will lose, why would FG opt for him? Simon will want a Coveney in line to either mind the seat for him, or replace him in the long run. The question, which I don't know the answer to, is whether there are any likely Coveneys to run.

Give us a name so. Patrick is a CEO so very unlikely.

Who else do FG have in Cork SC with any kind of profile?

I still think Dara Murphy's antics will have an impact. I know he was in a different constituency but he is FG and was never sanctioned by Leo.

I now think Simon will not be the next commissioner. It will go to one of the ladies.

Bannasidhe · 31-08-2020 06:18PM

Hawthorn Tree wrote: »

Give us a name so. Patrick is a CEO so very unlikely.

Who else do FG have in Cork SC with any kind of profile?

I still think Dara Murphy's antics will have an impact. I know he was in a different constituency but he is FG and was never sanctioned by Leo.

I now think Simon will not be the next commissioner. It will go to one of the ladies.

The FGers I know are saying they do not want Buttimer, Cllr Des Cahill would be their preferred candidate. He's very FG if you catch my drift so I can't see him getting any votes/transfers from the left/GP - but is he FF friendly? TBH I am hearing nothing from local FFers bar anger at their own party's performance so I honestly don't know.
People really are furious at FF and the Greens - FG not so much.

blanch152 · 31-08-2020 08:34PM

Hawthorn Tree wrote: »

Give us a name so. Patrick is a CEO so very unlikely.

Who else do FG have in Cork SC with any kind of profile?

I still think Dara Murphy's antics will have an impact. I know he was in a different constituency but he is FG and was never sanctioned by Leo.

I now think Simon will not be the next commissioner. It will go to one of the ladies.

I am not a FG member so I don't have a clue whether there are any more Coveneys, but I can see the benefit of one for them.

We can park this conversation until the name is announced because if you are correct and one of the ladies is announced, we could have a different outcome. Does anyone know who Mairead McGuinness nominated as her replacements on the ballot?

dundalkfc10 · 01-09-2020 12:28AM

https://twitter.com/thejournal_ie/status/1300540702246535168?s=19

Jesus one rule for one, People have homes/family abroad, surely they get an exemption aswell

James Brown · 01-09-2020 01:10AM

dundalkfc10 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/thejournal_ie/status/1300540702246535168?s=19

Jesus one rule for one, People have homes/family abroad, surely they get an exemption aswell

Isn't it about containment? They could be negative, catch it on the plane and spread it all over because of their results.
As was thrown in the publics face, there comes a time were we must have individual responsibility. Asking for permission to flout health regulations is not on.
They certainly are not essential workers. What can they not do remotely, golf?

Chiparus · 01-09-2020 06:15AM

Bowie wrote: »

Isn't it about containment? They could be negative, catch it on the plane and spread it all over because of their results.
As was thrown in the publics face, there comes a time were we must have individual responsibility. Asking for permission to flout health regulations is not on.
They certainly are not essential workers. What can they not do remotely, golf?

They could catch it anywhere, the testing is bogus, as it can take 2 weeks post innoculation for the test to become positive.

Just because you test negative does not mean you do not have the virus.

Floppybits · 01-09-2020 07:45AM

Bowie wrote: »

Isn't it about containment? They could be negative, catch it on the plane and spread it all over because of their results.
As was thrown in the publics face, there comes a time were we must have individual responsibility. Asking for permission to flout health regulations is not on.
They certainly are not essential workers. What can they not do remotely, golf?

Have we not learned anything from going fiasco and that is that anyone who is part of the establishment such as politicians, judges, lobbyists are all immune from COVID. Everyone else is just a walking infection.

blanch152 · 01-09-2020 07:49AM

dundalkfc10 wrote: »

Jesus one rule for one, People have homes/family abroad, surely they get an exemption aswell

Yeah, I kind of guessed something like this was in the air from Clare Daly’s interview, it was clear she felt some entitlement to come and go from Ireland to Brussels without quarantining.

BQQ · 01-09-2020 07:59AM

Bannasidhe wrote: »

I have no idea what Bannasheide thinks but I think It's FG's to lose. It's 'their' seat.

I am disagreeing with you saying FF can win it. I explained why - you continued explaining why you thought FF could.
SF might pull it off...

You have no idea what you yourself thinks?

Edit: Oops! Just noticed the misspelling
Apologies

Bannasidhe · 01-09-2020 08:02AM

blanch152 wrote: »

Yeah, I kind of guessed something like this was in the air from Clare Daly’s interview, it was clear she felt some entitlement to come and go from Ireland to Brussels without quarantining.

Yet it was govt MEPs who expressed such sense of entitlement

MEPs Billy Kelleher (Fianna Fáil), Seán Kelly (Fine Gael), and Ciarán Cuffe (Green Party) have written a joint-letter to the Taoiseach Micheál Martin to ask for MEPs to be made exempt from the 14-day quarantine if they receive a negative Covid-19 test result before and after travel.

https://www.thejournal.ie/meps-write-to-taoiseach-about-quarantine-rules-5191146-Sep2020/

You swung and missed there Blanch.

blanch152 · 01-09-2020 08:24AM

Bannasidhe wrote: »

Yet it was govt MEPs who expressed such sense of entitlement

https://www.thejournal.ie/meps-write-to-taoiseach-about-quarantine-rules-5191146-Sep2020/

You swung and missed there Blanch.

Nope, I think some of our MEPs have been coming and going without quarantining for some time. Let it all come out.

The three lads are trying to cover their arses on this, Ms. Daly felt EP rules overruled Irish ones.

Unlike others around here, I haven’t defended any politician who breached COVID guidelines.

Bannasidhe · 01-09-2020 08:32AM

blanch152 wrote: »

Nope, I think some of our MEPs have been coming and going without quarantining for some time. Let it all come out.

The three lads are trying to cover their arses on this, Ms. Daly felt EP rules overruled Irish ones.

Unlike others around here, I haven’t defended any politician who breached COVID guidelines.

Neither have I.

I am simply commenting on you going straight to Clare Daly's apparent sense of entitlement when an article was posted saying MEPs from Govt parties wrote a letter asking for an exception.

Bannasidhe · 01-09-2020 08:58AM

Examiner (or De Paper as we call it in Cork) saying there are 'unexpected delays' in naming the new Commissioner. Apparently Ryan is not going along with "let's just send Coveney" and wants a female named as well as per requested.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40040984.html

They really couldn't organised a fight in a bun factory.

FrancieBrady · 01-09-2020 09:23AM

Bannasidhe wrote: »

Neither have I.

I am simply commenting on you going straight to Clare Daly's apparent sense of entitlement when an article was posted saying MEPs from Govt parties wrote a letter asking for an exception.

Fairly evident in the thread that the continual pointing at selected others whenever a FG member of government is in the spotlight is a form of defence. Some posters want to talk about anything else other than the transgression relevant at the time.

Exemptions are being handed out by the government...given their track record, it is no surprise there is confusion about the detail of them.

StackSteevens · 01-09-2020 10:26AM

Bannasidhe wrote: »

Examiner (or De Paper as we call it in Cork) saying there are 'unexpected delays' in naming the new Commissioner. Apparently Ryan is not going along with "let's just send Coveney" and wants a female named as well as per requested.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40040984.html

They really couldn't organised a fight in a bun factory.

I have a very strong objection to the President of the EU Commission trying to influence a sovereign member state in its nomination of its EU Commissioner.

The nomination is entirely our call and she should politely and very firmly be told to back off and mind her own business.

If the clueless postering Green sprouts get their way then there's no point in any Irishman accepting a nomination, as Ursula is going to pick the woman.

However, if Ireland wants to highlight Ursula's stupidiy, then we should call her bluff and nominate Maria Bailey.

Floppybits · 01-09-2020 10:58AM

StackSteevens wrote: »

I have a very strong objection to the President of the EU Commission trying to influence a sovereign member state in its nomination of its EU Commissioner.

The nomination is entirely our call and she should politely and very firmly be told to back off and mind her own business.

If the clueless postering Green sprouts get their way then there's no point in any Irishman accepting a nomination, as Ursula is going to pick the woman.

However, if Ireland wants to highlight Ursula's stupidiy, then we should call her bluff and nominate Maria Bailey.

I have no problem with the government nominating both Coveney and McGuinness, [probably the only 2 worthy of the nomination. Both are capable of the job and are in good standing in the Europe. Whichever one gets the nomination will be a good choice.

JohnnyFlash · 01-09-2020 11:00AM

We should nominate Luke ‘Ming’ Flanagan for the laugh.

FF/FG/Green Next Government

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