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FF/FG/Green Next Government

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Comments

  • #7412
    Truthvader
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,826 ✭✭✭Truthvader


    RandomViewer wrote: »
    The Truthevader is a former guard, gets very worked up when you mention corruption in the Garda , seem to have similar attitude as the Church to members doing bad things,

    Nothing worse than being a guard for a certain kind of person. A criminal.


  • #7413
    Hawthorn Tree
    Closed Accounts Posts: 544 ✭✭✭Hawthorn Tree


    RandomViewer wrote: »
    The Truthevader is a former guard, gets very worked up when you mention corruption in the Garda , seem to have similar attitude as the Church to members doing bad things,

    Ok I didn't know. I wont expect an apology so.


  • #7414
    RandomViewer
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,173 ✭✭✭RandomViewer


    Truthvader wrote: »
    Nothing worse than being a guard for a certain kind of person. A criminal.

    Problem is the Gardai are riddled with criminals, were you one of them?


  • #7415
    James Brown
    Closed Accounts Posts: 16,012 ✭✭✭✭James Brown


    Truthvader wrote: »
    No you're just not able to keep up. McCabe was treated very badly by the guards as a result of his decision to tell the truth. Ultimately he was vindicated. Eamonn Collins told the truth about Sinn Fein IRA and ultimately was vindi..... Oh no , they found his body beaten to death on a border road. Gettit now?

    Give Garda McCabe the respect of allowing his story be told. It's a government thread discussing one of the key players in his story possibly getting the FG 'we look after our own' treatment despite her incompetence and murky record in office.


  • #7416
    Hawthorn Tree
    Closed Accounts Posts: 544 ✭✭✭Hawthorn Tree


    Truthvader wrote: »
    No you're just not able to keep up. McCabe was treated very badly by the guards as a result of his decision to tell the truth. Ultimately he was vindicated. Eamonn Collins told the truth about Sinn Fein IRA and ultimately was vindi..... Oh no , they found his body beaten to death on a border road. Gettit now?

    The context was Frances Fitzgerald who let down Maurice McCabe repeatedly, there was zero reference to SF/IRA. I am not a Sinn Fein supporter. I never have been. Actually I am not going to engage with you further...Mark Twain said it best 'Never argue with an idiot. They will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience'.


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  • #7417
    James Brown
    Closed Accounts Posts: 16,012 ✭✭✭✭James Brown


    McMurphy wrote: »
    It's going pretty much exactly how I thought it might when I heard she (Fitzgerald) was to be considered a nomination.

    Lots of twitter users this morning linking the infamous emails and various other aspects of the Maurice McCabe scandal directly to Ursala von der Leyen.

    EU positions always seems to be more of a slap on the back for a party crony than 'the best people'. Might be an idea, in a healthly democracy, the new supposed post civil war politics era, to look for the best person regardless of party?
    Wouldn't fit with the 'gimme gimme, mine mine' calibre of these people though.


  • #7418
    Truthvader
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,826 ✭✭✭Truthvader


    Bowie wrote: »
    Give Garda McCabe the respect of allowing his story be told. It's a government thread discussing one of the key players in his story possibly getting the FG 'we look after our own' treatment despite her incompetence and murky record in office.

    Ah the Sinn Fein "respect for the guards". Ha ha ha


  • #7419
    Bannasidhe
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,204 ✭✭✭✭Bannasidhe


    Hawthorn Tree wrote: »
    Cork TDs are letting their constituents down a lot lately. There must be loads of anger still over the Dara Murphy antics.

    The fury in Cork with FF, FG, GP, and LP - North and South Central - is palpable.

    McGrath is probably the safest of the current govt TDs as (much as I dislike FF) I have to give him credit for being a good constituency TD.
    The Cork Greens are in open revolt against the party leadership.
    The LP is, I think, finished in Cork.

    We could, hopefully, be looking at a better spread of party affiliations in Cork in the future with the days for 2 FF/FG seats per constituency a thing of the past.


  • #7420
    James Brown
    Closed Accounts Posts: 16,012 ✭✭✭✭James Brown


    Truthvader wrote: »
    Ah the Sinn Fein "respect for the guards". Ha ha ha

    ...so that would be a 'no'.


  • #7421
    Hawthorn Tree
    Closed Accounts Posts: 544 ✭✭✭Hawthorn Tree


    Bannasidhe wrote: »
    The fury in Cork with FF, FG, GP, and LP - North and South Central - is palpable.

    McGrath is probably the safest of the current govt TDs as (much as I dislike FF) I have to give him credit for being a good constituency TD.
    The Cork Greens are in open revolt against the party leadership.
    The LP is, I think, finished in Cork.

    We could, hopefully, be looking at a better spread of party affiliations in Cork in the future with the days for 2 FF/FG seats per constituency a thing of the past.

    I would love SDs to take it too. That would put them 1 TD ahead of the Labour Party in the Dail with 7 seats.


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  • #7422
    Bishop of hope
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,015 ✭✭✭Bishop of hope


    Bannasidhe wrote: »
    I know CSC well and I can't see FF taking 3 seats there. I can actually see Martin struggle to hold his seat.

    SF were always in a strong position to take the old 'Labour' seat. There was always a strong left of centre voting bloc in CSC and Labour urinated it away. Now SF are attracting many of those voters, plus disaffected FFers (e.g. my 86 year old Mam).

    SF have a shot at 2 but FG should hold it if they run the right candidate - not Buttimer, he was already a busted flush before he went to play golf.

    Personally I would like to see the SDs take it , I can't really see that happening - but they did pull off a surprise in West Cork so it's not impossible if they garner the Green vote plus the 'want an alternative but can't stomach SF' vote.

    I wouldn't be too sure of FG holding, in fact I'd be surprised.
    It's going to be a one seat shootout.
    SF topped the poll with one candidate in the GE, but FF were miles ahead in first preferences.
    FG were third on first preferences.
    Depends on the candidates I suppose, but if it follows party preferences it should be a FF win.
    SF might get it if there's a swing from FF like has been suggested in lately polls.


  • #7423
    Bannasidhe
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,204 ✭✭✭✭Bannasidhe


    Bishop of hope wrote: »
    I wouldn't be too sure of FG holding, in fact I'd be surprised.
    It's going to be a one seat shootout.
    SF topped the poll with one candidate in the GE, but FF were miles ahead in first preferences.
    FG were third on first preferences.
    Depends on the candidates I suppose, but if it follows party preferences it should be a FF win.
    SF might get it if there's a swing from FF like has been suggested in lately polls.

    2016 Martin and McGrath got in on the first count.

    2020 Martin got in on the 6th count and McGrath on the 8th having failed to reach the quota.
    The FF vote nearly collapsed in it's Cork stronghold and you think they might take a 3rd seat? I think they will be bloody lucky to hold the 2 they have.

    FG might manage to hang on if, and it's a big if, they have a well known candidate with a 'name'. If they run Buttimer they will lose.

    Lorna Bogue came within 1631 votes of knocking out McGrath (who is actually popular) - she has been highly critical of the Green's going into government - will she be willing to run for them again?
    If the GP vote collapses where do you think her 5k+ FP votes will go? To FF? No way.

    There is a left vote in CSC that is looking for a candidate - it used to be a Labour Vote, some of it went SF but not all. A good bit went Green.
    The SDs didn't poll well but neither did Labour - the SDs are on the way up and LP on the way down.
    If - and again it's a big if - the SDs can capture the Green vote they are in with a shot.
    If Bogue left the Greens and joined the SDs I reckon she could take a seat.


  • #7424
    Bishop of hope
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,015 ✭✭✭Bishop of hope


    I think you forget this is a separate election if it happens.
    FF took by far the highest percentage votes there in the GE.
    The same people get to vote again.
    https://www.irishtimes.com/election2020/cork-south-central


  • #7425
    Scoondal
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 880 ✭✭✭Scoondal


    Bannasidhe wrote: »
    The fury in Cork with FF, FG, GP, and LP - North and South Central - is palpable.

    McGrath is probably the safest of the current govt TDs as (much as I dislike FF) I have to give him credit for being a good constituency TD.
    The Cork Greens are in open revolt against the party leadership.
    The LP is, I think, finished in Cork.

    We could, hopefully, be looking at a better spread of party affiliations in Cork in the future with the days for 2 FF/FG seats per constituency a thing of the past.

    "LP" are the opposition.


  • #7426
    blanch152
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,195 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Bowie wrote: »
    Give Garda McCabe the respect of allowing his story be told.

    Happy to the let the story of both Garda McCabes be told.


  • #7427
    Bannasidhe
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,204 ✭✭✭✭Bannasidhe


    Bishop of hope wrote: »
    I think you forget this is a separate election if it happens.
    FF took by far the highest percentage votes there in the GE.
    The same people get to vote again.
    https://www.irishtimes.com/election2020/cork-south-central

    I haven't forgotten anything - nor have the people of Cork South Central. The 2 candidates who topped the polls and romped home in 2016 struggled in 2020, one of them failing to make the quota. Sure - if you combine their vote together they get most of the votes - but it was close for McGrath. How you can possibly think FF could take a 3rd seat is a mystery to me.
    If you - or the Irish Times - think FF have done enough during these last weeks in govt to reverse the decline in their vote in Cork you must be a) looking at a completely different govt to the one I am looking at and b) far far away from Cork.


  • #7428
    Bannasidhe
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,204 ✭✭✭✭Bannasidhe


    Scoondal wrote: »
    "LP" are the opposition.

    Really.
    Gee I hadn't noticed. But thanks for the heads up Captain Obvious.

    Way to miss the point which is that opposition or not the LP's vote in Cork has completely collapsed.
    It is now up for grabs. Last time SF and GP benefited - now the question is has the SF vote peaked and will the Greens be decimated?


  • #7429
    James Brown
    Closed Accounts Posts: 16,012 ✭✭✭✭James Brown


    blanch152 wrote: »
    Happy to the let the story of both Garda McCabes be told.

    Seemingly not. Earlier we were talking about Frances Fitzgerald and her role during the McCabe Whistleblower/smear campaign as it related to her being a poor candidate to replace Hogan.


  • #7430
    Bishop of hope
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,015 ✭✭✭Bishop of hope


    Bannasidhe wrote: »
    I haven't forgotten anything - nor have the people of Cork South Central. The 2 candidates who topped the polls and romped home in 2016 struggled in 2020, one of them failing to make the quota. Sure - if you combine their vote together they get most of the votes - but it was close for McGrath. How you can possibly think FF could take a 3rd seat is a mystery to me.
    If you - or the Irish Times - think FF have done enough during these last weeks in govt to reverse the decline in their vote in Cork you must be a) looking at a completely different govt to the one I am looking at and b) far far away from Cork.

    Oh gosh, sorry.
    I was looking for something to base how a new, poll might go.
    You said FG should win it, what made you think that?
    I said likely FF or SF originally and more than likely SF if the FF vote has collapsed, but you chose FG as being the favourites even though they're not yours.
    You're basically talking yourself into an argument with me for something I haven't actually said, just based my assessment on the GE results.
    And like it or not FF got the biggest vote.


  • #7431
    markodaly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,322 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    Bannasidhe wrote: »
    If the GP vote collapses where do you think her 5k+ FP votes will go? To FF? No way.

    I think a lot of those votes will go to FG and the SD's.


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  • #7432
    dundalkfc10
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 4,719 ✭✭✭dundalkfc10


    markodaly wrote: »
    I think a lot of those votes will go to FG and the SD's.

    You hope


  • #7433
    Chiparus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,292 ✭✭✭Chiparus


    The Shinners will easily win a By-election- mostly a protest vote - might be better for FF as it could split the SF vote in future GE.


  • #7434
    blanch152
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,195 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Chiparus wrote: »
    The Shinners will easily win a By-election- mostly a protest vote - might be better for FF as it could split the SF vote in future GE.

    Sinn Fein will likely top the poll in the bye-election.

    It will be interesting to see what happens with transfers. Will it be like the election aftermath whereby they finished with the highest vote, but no other party wanted to touch them or go near them. If Fianna Fail finish third, which I think is likely, their transfers will determine the outcome.


  • #7435
    Bannasidhe
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,204 ✭✭✭✭Bannasidhe


    Bishop of hope wrote: »
    Oh gosh, sorry.
    I was looking for something to base how a new, poll might go.
    You said FG should win it, what made you think that?
    I said likely FF or SF originally and more than likely SF if the FF vote has collapsed, but you chose FG as being the favourites even though they're not yours.
    You're basically talking yourself into an argument with me for something I haven't actually said, just based my assessment on the GE results.
    And like it or not FF got the biggest vote.

    No, I said FG should/could win it if - big IF - they find the right (pardon the pun) candidate. The FG vote hasn't gone away, there should still be enough to get one candidate over the line if they choose that candidate wisely. If they go with Buttimer I think that would be unwise. Them being 'mine' has nowt to do with it - it has to so with what support the party has in the constituency and the fact is they have enough to retain the seat - it's 'theirs' to lose. Plus there is the perception that FG have handled the CV19 crises well.

    My argument was with you even suggesting FF could take a 3rd seat. Listening to people (and I come from a traditionally FF CSC family) FF will be lucky if they keep the 2 they have.

    I think - and this is my opinion - McGrath's seat is the one that could be poached but there are caveats - has SF's vote share peaked (I suspect it may have)? O'Laoighaire is too new to have garnered enough notice to bring a 2nd SF candidate with him. I am not convinced there is enough support to get SF a 2nd seat but I could be wrong.

    What happens to the Green vote that saw Bogue get so close to McGrath? She has been a vocal critic of the Greens going into gov and was suspended from the party - that is one issue. Will she run for the Greens now? And if she did - is that vote still there for the Greens? The party going into gov has not been popular at all in Cork.
    As I said - I think if Bogue joined the SDs she could just about manage to take McGrath's seat. It would take a hell of a lot of work tho.

    My prediction is that FF/FG/SF will have one seat each and the fight will be for the 2nd seat FF currently hold. I would love to see the SDs take it but they face an uphill battle.


  • #7436
    Hawthorn Tree
    Closed Accounts Posts: 544 ✭✭✭Hawthorn Tree


    It's only 1 seat folks. The other 3 TDs remain.

    If Simon goes to Brussels, do people really see Buttimer (FG) replacing Simon after the Golfgate Elite fiasco? After what Dara Murphy did, I hope the people of Cork SC has some cop on.

    It looks like a Green seat to lose (Lorna Bogue). She got 9.4% of FPV in 2020.


  • #7437
    James Brown
    Closed Accounts Posts: 16,012 ✭✭✭✭James Brown


    Word on the street, [speculation based on a newspaper story]..
    Varadkar knows more than anybody he has it coming as Big Phil 'plots revenge'
    It is never a pleasant business, this taking down of a big beast in politics. Phil Hogan knows it more than anybody. He has stabbed a fair few in the back himself, all the while smiling to their face. The most nervous man in Ireland now is Leo Varadkar. Hogan suspects he had a hand in leaking to the media the garda commissioner's mobile phone misdemeanour juicy morsel.
    Link

    #snitchesgetstitches

    Hogan making a false claim? Maybe but it doesn't look like all is well in house Fine Gael. A politician leaking such information can't be ethical? And why, (if) was Varadkar informed at all? In the eyes of the law surely he's just another citizen, mind they are all pretty cosy.


  • #7438
    Hawthorn Tree
    Closed Accounts Posts: 544 ✭✭✭Hawthorn Tree


    Bowie wrote: »
    Word on the street, [speculation based on a newspaper story]..

    Hogan making a false claim? Maybe but it doesn't look like all is well in house Fine Gael. A politician leaking such information can't be ethical?

    It was Hogan that backed Leo for the leadership of FG. Otherwise it would most certainly have gone to Broken Record Simon.


  • #7439
    blanch152
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,195 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Hawthorn Tree wrote: »
    It's only 1 seat folks. The other 3 TDs remain.

    If Simon goes to Brussels, do people really see Buttimer (FG) replacing Simon after the Golfgate Elite fiasco? After what Dara Murphy did, I hope the people of Cork SC has some cop on.

    It looks like a Green seat to lose (Lorna Bogue). She got 9.4% of FPV in 2020.

    At only 9.4% of FPV, how does she stay in the race when SF, FF and FG will all be ahead of her?


  • #7440
    Hawthorn Tree
    Closed Accounts Posts: 544 ✭✭✭Hawthorn Tree


    blanch152 wrote: »
    At only 9.4% of FPV, how does she stay in the race when SF, FF and FG will all be ahead of her?

    Name those FFG/SF candidates for me first. You know how a bye-election works?

    It's 1 seat baby and she came 5th last time out by a country mile. Lorna is the fav.

    Will the Clifden Elite party impact Buttimer? 100%


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  • #7441
    blanch152
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,195 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Hawthorn Tree wrote: »
    Name those FFG/SF candidates for me first. You know how a bye-election works?

    It's 1 seat baby and she came 5th last time out by a country mile. Lorna is the fav.

    Will the Clifden Elite party impact Buttimer? 100%

    Is there a Coveney to succeed Simon? That is the first place FG should look. The name itself should be sufficient to keep them in the hunt. Like it or not, people do vote on the name itself.

    FF will have a bigger problem, but why not a solid councillor who can bring their vote with them. What about Mary Rose Desmond, assistant to Martin at one time, hardly a challenge to him, or Colm Kelleher? Mary Rose was only 100 votes behind Bogue in the locals, and she had Terry Shannon splitting the vote. Fergal Dennehy? Don't know him, but anything to the former TD?

    Coming fifth leaves her fourth starting out in the race for the bye-election.

    FF - 35.5
    SF - 24.6
    FG - 21.2
    Greens - 9.4

    That leaves her a long way back. She may also have a problem getting the nomination too, given her clashes with the leadership. While I would love to see another Green in the Dail, increasing the profile for the next general election would probably be the likely outcome.

    Couldn't care less about who Sinn Fein put forward, but a convicted gun-runner or drug lord running for them wouldn't make a blind bit of difference to those who vote for them, so would expect them to also be ahead of the Greens. There just don't seem to be enough votes for her.


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