Covid 19 Part XXII-30,360 in ROI(1,781 deaths) 8,035 in NI (568 deaths)(10/09)Read OP

Akabusi · 28-08-2020 11:35AM

iguana wrote: »

Does anyone else have a feeling that what we are seeing happening now is exactly what we (and most of Europe/the world) didn't see happening at the start of the year and maybe even at the end of last year. A slow, almost invisible spread of hundreds of people with very mild and asymptomatic illness with a handful of hospitalisations. At the time any noticeable illness was assumed to be a cold or flu. Then due to exponential growth the amount of people with serious illnesses grew rapidly and led to a crisis.

Hopefully not. Masks, SD and better hand hygiene should prevent a repeat of last March/April. There were nasty colds going around last winter also. In January/Febraury I had the worst sore throat of my life. I tried everything to relieve the pain, the only bit of comfort i got was through taking some strong pain killers i had on hand for a bad back that i have which flares from time to time.

podgeandrodge · 28-08-2020 11:38AM

I swear this is true - in Dublin city this morning in a small supermarket, guy ahead of me in the queue for the till, wearing no mask, looking very misearable asks at the counter for a packet of strepsils :rolleyes::pac:

28-08-2020 11:59AM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

1 thing that I have been wondering about is Casinos, I thought they were in phase 4 ? Did they get moved into 3 ?

I know of 3 that are open and have been for weeks.

Amusements have been open. I have no idea how they are keeping them sanitised. In my head I imagine 1 cleaner shadowing 1 person who hops from poker machine to poker machine. Then there’s the kids running back and forth from ride to ride touching everything in their paths (as kids do). I don’t want to think about the toilets!

I’d take a run in to my local one (seaside) but I’m no kamikaze

but I know they were very busy last few weeks.

I’d would have thought they’d be last on the list.

mountgomery burns · 28-08-2020 12:12PM

normanoffside wrote: »

You know what?
People are so frustrated with him and given the fact that there is no real fora to express that frustration, sometimes childish jokes are the only way.

There absolutely is so many mediums to complain about decisions or something he said. For example here, Twitter, letters to newspapers, texts to radio shows, emails etc. Of course you're not going to be able to have it out with him one to one, we'd never get anything done if that was possible.

But mocking someone for their appearance is bullying, and how much money they make or how inept you might feel they are doesn't come into it. He may well be able to handle it, doesn't make it right.

Flies directly in the face of some here arguing about how the restrictions are impacting mental health, if they are to delve into hypocrisy and potentially adversely impact his mental health. I'll say no more

yourdeadwright · 28-08-2020 12:23PM

I'm hearing 128 today,
Not great at all

MD1990 · 28-08-2020 12:26PM

Same people making fun of someone's appearance are probably the same complaining about mental health because they cant socialise how they want because of the virus.

It is probably mostly younger people anyway who may not age that well themselves

stephenjmcd · 28-08-2020 12:30PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Family member referred for test Monday evening, tested Wednesday morning, no results yet.

We really need a quicker turn around than this surely.

Now the doctor said their 99% sure its a normal throat infection but had to be referred given the symptoms. Basically better now anyway but in our experience its too slow.

To follow up on this text just in from HSE for negative result, just over 48hrs swab to result.

seamus · 28-08-2020 12:31PM

Testing figures are still very high. So it's not that bad really. Positive rate still trending downwards.

Funsterdelux · 28-08-2020 12:31PM

yourdeadwright wrote: »

I'm hearing 128 today,
Not great at all

Budweiser?

stephenjmcd · 28-08-2020 12:31PM

yourdeadwright wrote: »

I'm hearing 128 today,
Not great at all

Based on HSE reports we're at 12k + tests for the last 3 days so roughly 1% positivity.

Last few weeks on 5 and 6000 tests we were picking up 100+ so not a huge difference.

Double the tests and still trending around the same numbers. Wouldn't call that bad myself. Annoying that the cases are still around the same number each day but no increase despite double the tests last few days

28-08-2020 12:37PM

JDD wrote: »

What's everyone's feelings about how many new cases we can have a day - assuming the average age of infection remains the same - without new restrictions being imposed?

And as an add on of that, how many would need to be in hospital before NPHET recommends new restrictions come in? We had 881 in hospital at one point in April and the health service coped but I think they were just at capacity. Going over 1000 at that point would have been a no-no in my opinion. Now that we have other health services back up and running, and assuming we want to keep them running, our tipping point is going to be lower. And, given it takes 2-4 weeks for restrictions to take affect, what number will be the tipping point be? 300 in hospital? 400?

If we do everything we can - within the constraints of stopping the economy from imploding - to keep over 70's from catching it, we will keep the hospitalisations down. And that can't be just telling over 70's to cocoon. They won't do it if they think that the rest of the country aren't making an effort to keep infections low too. Though keeping infections out of nursing homes will be half the battle.

If two thirds of infections are kept to under 45's, only a max 5% of those will be hospitalised. Much less in fact if a good proportion of those positive tests are asymptomatic. So if we have 400 infections a day, 300 pertaining to under 45s, we'll have approx 10 a day being hospitalised, with the vast majority of them discharged after a week. If most of the remaining infections stayed in the 45-65 category, we'd have another 10ish a day being admitted. That brings us up to the 300 in hospital at any one time mark.

We've a while to go before we get to 400 a day. If the R rate is 1.2 we have at least a couple of months.

I'm not sure if the numbers work that way at all, but I'd love to see the scenarios that NPHET have set out.

R rate is between 1 to 1.2. I think it is closer to 1 than 1.2 given stabilisation of case numbers.

It's this simple we need to collectively keep r at around 1 or below. As r has been creeping downwards from 1.8 to 1 in last month government will be happy enough privately.

People took the mick over the summer after 3 months locked down. Reality is we need to SD for the foreseeable. Personally I think pubs are too big a risk and should stay closed for the rest of the year. For the number of cases we would generate for the small economic benefit we would gain from opening them it seems clear it is too big a risk. How many lives would we lose from letting people socialise in pubs. People have restaurants or small groups at home to socialise. We need to lower our expectations as to what we can reopen while keeping this virus under control.

podgeandrodge · 28-08-2020 12:41PM

Deleted User wrote: »

R rate is between 1 to 1.2. I think it is closer to 1 than 1.2 given stabilisation of case numbers.

It's this simple we need to collectively keep r at around 1 or below. As r has been creeping downwards from 1.8 to 1 in last month government will be happy enough privately.

People took the mick over the summer after 3 months locked down. Reality is we need to SD for the foreseeable. Personally I think pubs are too big a risk and should stay closed for the rest of the year. For the number of cases we would generate for the small economic benefit we would gain from opening them it seems clear it is too big a risk. How many lives would we lose from letting people social use in pubs. People have restaurants or small groups at home to socialise. We need to lower our expectations as to what we can reopen while keeping this virus under control.

But is there really good enough reason to keep them closed rather than allowing open, watch cases, and specifically hospitalisations, and close outbreak pubs as and when necessary. Living with the virus to an extent, how long can it go on that we are trying to supress it....

hmmm · 28-08-2020 12:46PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Based on HSE reports we're at 12k + tests for the last 3 days so roughly 1% positivity.

Last few weeks on 5 and 6000 tests we were picking up 100+ so not a huge difference.

Double the tests and still trending around the same numbers. Wouldn't call that bad myself. Annoying that the cases are still around the same number each day but no increase despite double the tests last few days

It's "finely balanced" as they say in football.

If all of us did 5% extra to be a bit more careful, we'd tip the balance the right direction. It's not about becoming hermits, simple stuff like meeting outdoors rather than indoors, making sure to wear a mask, turning down the invites from gob****es to parties etc.

ACitizenErased · 28-08-2020 12:47PM

I think the last few days indicate r is roughly 1, the case numbers seem to have stabilised around 100-120. As Dr. Glynn said, hopefully we start to see a decrease from Monday as the new restrictions come into play.

28-08-2020 12:47PM

podgeandrodge wrote: »

But is there really good enough reason to keep them closed rather than allowing open, watch cases, and specifically hospitalisations, and close outbreak pubs as and when necessary. Living with the virus to an extent, how long can it go on that we are trying to supress it....

Yes economically and socially what do they bring extra to people's lives? If a pub owner wanted to open he/she could have and serve some food. Its like people attending football matches. What economically does it add? It does bring some economic benefit but its not massive compared to opening schools. It's about risk reward. In normal times of course open all and let people decide what they want to do themselves. Now we have to choose what we can get rid of with as little damage to our society to keep r rate to 1. When r is over 1 government will restrict our movements. Its that simple.

grumpymunster · 28-08-2020 12:56PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Yes economically and socially what do they bring extra to people's lives? If a pub owner wanted to open he/she could have and serve some food. Its like people attending football matches. What economically does it add? It does bring some economic benefit but its not massive compared to opening schools. It's about risk reward. In normal times of courseopen all and let people decide what they want to do themselves. Now we have to choose what we can get rid of with as little damage to our society to keep r rate to 1. When r is over 1 government will restrict our movements. Its that simple.

I would estimate the revenue generated from large sporting events is considerable to a local economy for example the cancelled ploughing championships (which is considered a sport) is estimated to have cost the local area some €45m not an insignificant amount of money.
You will find it hard to get a room in Dublin on a rugby weekend the economic benefit of sport is huge rather than "some economic benefit".

I have never seen a published risk assessment from NPHET so how do you gauge risk reward.

28-08-2020 01:04PM

grumpymunster wrote: »

I would estimate the revenue generated from large sporting events is considerable to a local economy for example the cancelled ploughing championships (which is considered a sport) is estimated to have cost the local area some €45m not an insignificant amount of money.
You will find it hard to get a room in Dublin on a rugby weekend the economic benefit of sport is huge rather than "some economic benefit".

I have never seen a published risk assessment from NPHET so how do you gauge risk reward.

Open the ploughing championships?

That would be an Irish Cheltenham.

Those events will not be open in 2020.

I don't think your actually serious, nobody could be that delusional to think having mass events such as ploughing championships is a good idea?

Have you been asleep since February of this year?

Even the public never mind NPHET or government would know mass events would be insanity at present.

s1ippy · 28-08-2020 01:08PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

...the case numbers seem to have stabilised around 100-120.

We actually predicted in previous threads when we were getting around 20 cases per day that people would say this as if it were no cause for concern.

In schools, the R number (how many will be infected by each person) for staff and students is going to be at least 6; probably higher.

grumpymunster · 28-08-2020 01:08PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Open the ploughing championships?

That would be an Irish Cheltenham.

Those events will not be open in 2020.

I don't think your actually serious, nobody could be that delusional to think having mass events such as ploughing championships is a good idea?

Have been asleep since February of this year?

Where did I say open anything exactly.

Pointing out the cost to local economies due to the closure of sporting events does not advocate opening them - so please point out exactly where I suggested opening the ploughing (an event I have never been to nor want to visit by the way).

You ignore the risk question I suggest you read before you reply might be helpful.

is_that_so · 28-08-2020 01:12PM

Anyone who transgresses during this will be hit with a €2,500 fine, now probably including the pubs! Talk about lazy legislating!

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0828/1161777-coronavirus/

is_that_so · 28-08-2020 01:15PM

s1ippy wrote: »

We actually predicted in previous threads when we were getting around 20 cases per day that people would say this as if it were no cause for concern.

In schools, the R number (how many will be infected by each person) for staff and students is going to be at least 6; probably higher.

Yes, back then before the HSE showed they could do 10K tests a day and by the looks of things generally control the disease. The crisis stage is over, this is about the management of it. 100-200 a day is not great but if it's the worst we get it's OK.

28-08-2020 01:17PM

grumpymunster wrote: »

Where did I say open anything exactly.

Pointing out the cost to local economies due to the closure of sporting events does not advocate opening them - so please point out exactly where I suggested opening the ploughing (an event I have never been to nor want to visit by the way).

You ignore the risk question I suggest you read before you reply might be helpful.

And your point is?

200 people attending football matches which was restricted recently is of small economic benefit. Not sure why you are talking about ploughing championships. If you asked 100 people on the street if they thought mass events are a good idea 99 would say no. A few headers would say yes because they couldn't give a hoot about the virus or the consequences anyway.

You don't need to be a scientist or an economist or do a risk assessment that mass events at present are a bad idea. Risk/reward. One of those events could cause us to be locked down which would probably cost billions. 45 million could end up costing billions and an out of control health service where people would be dieing due to overloaded health system. I don't think you have thought about this very much.

When was mass events last open?

February.

s1ippy · 28-08-2020 01:20PM

is_that_so wrote: »

Yes, back then before the HSE showed they could do 10K tests a day and by the looks of things generally control the disease. The crisis stage is over, this is about the management of it. 100-200 a day is not great but if it's the worst we get it's OK.

It gives me no satisfaction to tell you 100-120 cases per day is in absolutely no way the worst we see in the coming months.

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0827/1161735-ryanair-covid-text/
People like this need to be heavily fined, €3k or more depending on income. If he was being tested he should have been isolating.

stephenjmcd · 28-08-2020 01:22PM

is_that_so wrote: »

Anyone who transgresses during this will be hit with a €2,500 fine, now probably including the pubs! Talk about lazy legislating!

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0828/1161777-coronavirus/

So basically the exact same as they do now, ask them to comply and they'll be back tomorrow to check.

Absolutely no difference here so.

seamus · 28-08-2020 01:25PM

We're starting to see a noticeable trend in close contact numbers since the start of August.

There's a gradual but consistent divergence between the average and median close contact numbers. The median stays fairly static around 3-4, but the average has trended up from 4-5 at the start of August, to around 6ish last week and towards 7 this week.

This means that while most people are still sticking to a core group of contacts, there is a small group of people who are mixing with increasingly more and more people. It might be house parties. It could also be factory outbreaks. It doesn't really matter, what it means is that there are a small number of people engaging in superspreader behaviours and having 30+ close contacts in any given two week period.

If it is factories, then we need to be aggressively closing down any workplaces that aren't being meticulous about their procedures. If it's house parties, we need to be pushing the relevant legislation through much faster.

grumpymunster · 28-08-2020 01:27PM

Deleted User wrote: »

And your point is?

200 people attending football matches which was restricted is of small economic benefit. Not sure why you are talking about ploughing championships. If you asked 100 people on the street if they thought mass events are a good idea 99 would say no. A few headers would say yes because they couldn't give a hoot about the virus or the consequences anyway.

You don't need to be a scientist or an economist or do a risk assessment that mass events at present are a bad idea.

When was mass events last open?

February.

You clearly didn't read even your own post - never mind.

If you pretend that all decisions are science based then yes you do need to do a risk assessment that is a no brainer. in fact not doing them is close to criminal and economic sabotage.

If you do not assess risk there is no datum to reference your decisions against. For example in Germany if a town's cases is > 50/100,000 population there is a localised lockdown until the figures are below 50/100,00 population upon which it reopens - that is clear and concise. What is the condition in Ireland to justify a lockdown?

Risk assessments are just that assess the risk to manage it - you learn that in first year for Gods sake.

TonyMaloney · 28-08-2020 01:28PM

seamus wrote: »

We're starting to see a noticeable trend in close contact numbers since the start of August.

There's a gradual but consistent divergence between the average and median close contact numbers. The median stays fairly static around 3-4, but the average has trended up from 4-5 at the start of August, to around 6ish last week and towards 7 this week.

This means that while most people are still sticking to a core group of contacts, there is a small group of people who are mixing with increasingly more and more people. It might be house parties. It could also be factory outbreaks. It doesn't really matter, what it means is that there are a small number of people engaging in superspreader behaviours and having 30+ close contacts in any given two week period.

If it is factories, then we need to be aggressively closing down any workplaces that aren't being meticulous about their procedures. If it's house parties, we need to be pushing the relevant legislation through much faster.

and in a few weeks when it's schools?

stephenjmcd · 28-08-2020 01:28PM

"Government continues to worry about the impact of social gatherings in houses on Covid-19, but it is NOT considering legislation today that could give gardaí powers to enter a home where more than six people are visiting."

is_that_so · 28-08-2020 01:33PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

So basically the exact same as they do now, ask them to comply and they'll be back tomorrow to check.

Absolutely no difference here so.

It's the appearance of there being a firmer approach!

stephenjmcd · 28-08-2020 01:33PM

So basically 3 strikes for any restaurants/pubs operating as restaurants.

Firstly Gardai ask them to comply. The exact same as they do now.

Don't comply well then they're looking at a 1 day closure. Gardai can apply to the courts to get this extended.

Don't comply with that, up to €2,500 fine or 6 months in jail.

Realistically step 1 is as far as any of it will go and thats the exact same as is asked of anywhere now.

Covid 19 Part XXII-30,360 in ROI(1,781 deaths) 8,035 in NI (568 deaths)(10/09)Read OP

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