Covid 19 Part XXII-30,360 in ROI(1,781 deaths) 8,035 in NI (568 deaths)(10/09)Read OP

Renjit · 26-08-2020 10:39PM

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

France registered > 5k cases today which is their third highest ever, very close to second, and I’m pretty sure their highest (>7k) was a reporting/backdated problem. Their deaths are still flatlined though.

Are we really seeing a consistent increase in testing across Europe causing this apparent second wave? One of the only places not seeing this is Sweden, but their deaths are still trending towards low like elsewhere.

Far more asymptomatics are tested now. I am not sure if France is back to pre-covid time of activity. If not, that is also working out in our favor.

More young people get this and old take a more precautionary approach. I think it can work out well.

Renjit · 26-08-2020 10:40PM

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

One thing that is certainly consistent throughout most of Europe is that June dip/flatline. That can’t be explained by testing too many/too few and I notice your speculative red line also respects that, i.e. doesn’t assume an undercount. Remember the days when we’d report like 4 cases or have a positivity rate of 0.3%. Fascinating to wonder what caused that.

They did have a lockdown, right? The virus needs people nearby.

GooglePlus · 26-08-2020 10:40PM

froog wrote: »

pure speculation of course but i think it's plausible the real graph of cases could be something like the red line below, overlayed on the actual data; huge amount of cases not caught, mostly asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic, and right now the cases reflect reality more due to better testing and tracing and better care strategies. and so we see current hospitalization rates much lower than we thought based on the first "wave". using spain as a larger data set than ireland but you can apply it to other countries.

So we could be looking at 10,000 cases in a day in a few months but really not the big alarm it sounds like with that taken into account.

owlbethere · 26-08-2020 10:43PM

GooglePlus wrote: »

I get that, but the science behind the virus sequencing is fairly solid. They could tell when it mutated in Italy, becoming more contagious. If the virus has weakened, it's make up would have changed and there has been no reports of any fundamental changes.

I reckon its coming down to 'viral load'. The measures taken over the past few months to keep people at a distance, cough/sneeze etiquette, hand hygiene - it could mean that sick/infectious people are passing less of a viral load to healthy people.

It would be interesting to see what will happen if all these measures were dropped and life goes back to the old ways - would there be higher viral loads during time of exposures?

political analyst · 26-08-2020 10:43PM

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/man-terminal-cancer-slams-government-22578576

A scaffolder has been told his cancer is now terminal after potentially life-saving surgery was cancelled because of Covid-19.

Adrian Rogers, 46, is an innocent casualty of the huge NHS backlog caused by the coronavirus pandemic.

Brave Adrian, who has three stepchildren, was diagnosed in 2018 with bowel cancer which had spread to his liver.

He underwent 18 months of gruelling chemotherapy to prepare for an operation to remove the tumours.

But the surgery was cancelled in April, with doctors saying it would be “too risky” to operate due to Covid.

The number of tumours on Adrian’s bowel and liver have since more than trebled from six to 20.

Now he and his wife Amanda, 48, have been told his condition is terminal and he is inoperable.

Adrian has been sentenced to death because of authorities' over-reaction to the pandemic.

It was obvious right from the beginning of the pandemic that cancellation of surgery was much more likely to cause the deaths of cancer patients on both sides of the Irish Sea than Covid ever was. They've been 'thrown under a bus' because of Covid even though, in terms of the number of deaths, it's not much worse than the flu.

GooglePlus · 26-08-2020 10:44PM

owlbethere wrote: »

I reckon its coming down to 'viral load'. The measures taken over the past few months to keep people at a distance, cough/sneeze etiquette, hand hygiene - it could mean that sick/infectious people are passing less of a viral load to healthy people.

It would be interesting to see what will happen if all these measures were dropped and life goes back to the old ways - would there be higher viral loads during time of exposures?

I think it'll be very interesting looking back at all this in a few years when conclusions are drawn, god knows what we don't know.

froog · 26-08-2020 10:48PM

GooglePlus wrote: »

So we could be looking at 10,000 cases in a day in a few months but really not the big alarm it sounds like with that taken into account.

i think our current figures more accurately reflect reality. and we aren't seeing an exponential rise, they do seem to have plateaued at the 50-150 level. but it's early days. even though many would say we have zero controls in place right now, that's not really the case at all. no schools up to now, no pubs, at least some attempt at social distancing, widespread mask wearing, lots of hand washing and of course track and trace and isolations all help to keep this thing in check. i am hopeful now we can live with these current controls and levels of transmission until we get a vaccine next year.

but it is coming into winter and we have the schools so it's fingers crossed time unfortunately.

let's be honest it was carnage in march and april and this thing was probably spreading like wildfire maybe as far back as december. the initial rise only really reflected our increase in testing as we ramped up.

ACitizenErased · 26-08-2020 10:50PM

HSE Daily Operations Update

28 in hospital, increase of 5.
7 confirmed cases in hospitals today - 2 in Beaumont and 1 each in Kilkenny, Mater, Portlaoise, UHWaterford and Wexford.
4 in ICU, no change.
2 on ventilators, decrease of 1.

Wolf359f · 26-08-2020 10:50PM

Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »

Exactly. People can't have it both ways.

It is either deadly virus that hospitalised 15% of cases or there were way more cases than we thought and the hospitalisations were 10 times less at 1.5%

All the evidence is pointing to the latter.

An interesting comparison, since the start we've had a hospitalisation rate of 12%, the UK has been 40% (open to correction on that, it seems so high)
The UK at the start were only focusing testing on hospital admissions and not the community at large.
Now, you can't really say the virus was over 3x more deadly in the UK cor they had a more serious strain compared to Ireland. It really has to be on the number of tests done/positivity rate.

stephenjmcd · 26-08-2020 10:50PM

HSE Operations update

28 in hosptial (total) as of 8pm. Increase of 5.
4 in ICU (no change) , 2 on ventilators (down 1)

7 cases diagnosed in hosptials today, Beaumont 2 , 1 each in Kilkenny, Mater, Portlaoise, UHW & Wexford.

Very broad spread on the 28 cases, UHL most with 4, Beaumont & Naas 3 each, 2's and 1 spread out then through 12 other hospitals.

Increase appears to be from the hosptials with the confirmed cases, based on recent data it appears to suggest if you test postive in hosptial your kept in for a night regardless. We've recently seen increases one day in certain hosptials and then those cases discharged the next. Would need a few more days to see if its a trend. See what happens tomorrow

political analyst · 26-08-2020 10:53PM

Wolf359f wrote: »

Very interesting take. So I'd feel handcuffs are more a risk of bodily integrity, does that mean prisoners constitutional rights are being infringed?

Or school kids having to wear a tie... I don't know, it's alot like a noose. Could be dangerous, especially combined with jumping on a trampoline.

It's a face mask, not a bloody straight jacket.
I still don't get the resistance from people about face coverings. Now if you were a nudist and you felt being naked as the day you were born is how you should be, that's a little more understandable.

The difference is that criminals are handcuffed so that they can be brought to justice for violating other people's rights.

There's a world of difference between wearing a tie and wearing a mask and you know it!

By the way, what have nudists got to do with this?!:rolleyes:

darjeeling · 26-08-2020 10:55PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Many ICU doctors across europe who understand science and medicine, I'm sure better than alot of us on here are saying anecdotely the virus is less aggressive/angry/its weaker.

They are going to be the first people to suggest this as they are the highly trained medical professionals at the coal face so to speak.

WHO/Govt health department are not going to say this as they would have to be certain this is the case after months of this trend. Also its not really in their interest to say this as people quite rightly would give up on social distancing altogether.

There is a growing consensus something is happening with this virus all over europe with a lot less sick people/deaths. There is a lot we do not understand with the virus, but you seem to think you have all the answers. There is 4 people in ICU's currently despite 1000's of cases in the last month.

ICU doctors understand medicine and how to diagnose and treat the patients in front of them. They can recognise changing patterns in patient profiles and symptoms, but there are a whole lot of factors that determine who ends up in intensive care and I wouldn't expect ICU doctors to have the background or the data to infer that viral evolution is responsible for any of these changes. For that you would need to look at viral genome sequences over time and, if appropriate, to do in vitro or - better - in vivo infection studies.

The UK ICU doctor quoted above said this:

What we have seen in France and Spain, and they saw an uptick in cases two weeks before the UK did because they were testing earlier, is there’s not been any increase in hospital admissions.

There’s not been an increase in deaths – this is not a second wave, it is just we are testing more people and finding more cases.

https://www.coventrytelegraph.net/news/health/midlands-doctor-says-coronavirus-getting-18812829

... all of which is factually incorrect.

Even as the number of tests carried out has increased, test positivity rates have been rising in Spain and France. That means that more people are getting infected. Since the 2nd week in July the positivity rate has risen in Spain from 1.4% to over 8% and in France from 1.1% to 3%.

Hospital and ICU admissions and deaths in Spain have been rising exponentially over the last ~7 weeks, doubling every 2 weeks. Weekly covid hospital admissions were around 140 the 2nd week in July, and as of yesterday stood at 1,500.
Six days ago the Spanish govt started releasing daily bed occupancy numbers. There were 4,636 covid in-patients a week ago and yesterday there were 5,903, a rise of 27% in six days.
A week ago there were 522 covid ICU patients and yesterday there were 697, a rise of 33% in six days.

Numbers in France are not rising as fast, but hospital admissions have more than doubled from 60 a day seven weeks ago to 140 as of yesterday, and ICU admissions have risen from around seven a day to 26.

A likely reason for the faster rise in Spain is that a higher proportion of older people are being infected, as revealed by positive test rate stats for each age group in the two countries.

normanoffside · 26-08-2020 10:55PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Very good point. If you take the estimated IFR of 0.6% then our total cases is actually almost 300,000.

0.6% is surely way higher than reality.
Disappointed today to see Stephen Donnelly surmise we have only had 50-60k infections.
He is not living in an reality at all thinking we only missed 1 in 2 infections.

s1ippy · 26-08-2020 10:59PM

Here's what the CDC are at.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/25/health/covid-19-testing-cdc.html

Cos if you don't test, you won't find cases.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/26/politics/cdc-coronavirus-testing-guidance/index.html

From the top down is right.

Renjit · 26-08-2020 11:00PM

s1ippy wrote: »

Here's what the CDC are at.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/25/health/covid-19-testing-cdc.html

Cos if you don't test, you won't find cases.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/26/politics/cdc-coronavirus-testing-guidance/index.html

From the top down is right.

Politics prevails science :pac:

Wolf359f · 26-08-2020 11:01PM

political analyst wrote: »

The difference is that criminals are handcuffed so that they can be brought to justice for violating other people's rights.

There's a world of difference between wearing a tie and wearing a mask and you know it!

By the way, what have nudists got to do with this?!:rolleyes:

You gave a link to constitutional protections for prisoners (obviousaly applies to the public also) "You have a right not to have your body or person interfered with" saying being forced to wear a mask would violate it. But handcuffs or an evasive strip search wouldn't?

The handcuffs and strip search would be for the safety of others, one could argue the same for a mask.

Rambling Man · 26-08-2020 11:04PM

Hogan gone

Wolf359f · 26-08-2020 11:05PM

s1ippy wrote: »

Here's what the CDC are at.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/25/health/covid-19-testing-cdc.html

Cos if you don't test, you won't find cases.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/26/politics/cdc-coronavirus-testing-guidance/index.html

From the top down is right.

They aiming for 100% positivity rate so they won't have to worry about wasting tests?
They be telling the public, oh we found 100% of the cases lol.

normanoffside · 26-08-2020 11:06PM

Rambling Man wrote: »

Hogan gone

Breaking News!

political analyst · 26-08-2020 11:06PM

Wolf359f wrote: »

You gave a link to constitutional protections for prisoners (obviousaly applies to the public also) "You have a right not to have your body or person interfered with" saying being forced to wear a mask would violate it. But handcuffs or an evasive strip search wouldn't?

The handcuffs and strip search would be for the safety of others, one could argue the same for a mask.

You're comparing apples with oranges. There's a world of difference between being educated and being arrested.

This virus's fatality rate is not much higher than that of the flu.

Pupils with cystic fibrosis still won't be able to go back to school anyway - so they won't get it from some other pupils refusing to wear masks.

WoollyRedHat · 26-08-2020 11:09PM

If we are identifying much more asymptomatic cases than we could ever have hoped to identify back in March and these people are isolated at point of identification, does it not stand to reason that infection rate and it's potency to affect demographics that are more vulnerable to succumb to virus is now being curtailed, leading to better outcomes, from hospitalisation to deaths on global level? As well as increased measures on reducing infections via SD, coconning and mask measures.

26-08-2020 11:09PM

Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »

Exactly. People can't have it both ways.

It is either deadly virus that hospitalised 15% of cases or there were way more cases than we thought and the hospitalisations were 10 times less at 1.5%

All the evidence is pointing to the latter.

Maybe its a bit of both?

Clearly understated cases in March/April by several multiples which means it was not as deadly as it appeared.

Who is say it is not less deadly?

Coronaviruses (common colds) have done this in the past and all do eventually in order for them to survive and this virus has had plenty of hosts compared to previous coronavirus thousands of years ago which would not have spread so quickly given that the world was a lot less connected then. There is plenty of coronaviruses around now that are practically harmless to anyone, except the extremely vulnerable.

Also what does a hospitalisation actually tell anyone?

I dont think its a great metric for serious illness.

Some people are admitted due to their age/condition as a precaution.

If i broke my leg and was tested for covid and tested positive thats a hospital admission. What does that tell anyone.

The true indicators of illness are ICU admissions and deaths.

Hospital admissions is a hell of alot more flakey.

The facts are the facts.

4 people in ICU despite 1000's of cases in the last month, many of which were over the age of 40.

Next to no actual deaths occuring.

There is probably more people currently dieing of many illnesses possibly even the flu as a doctor in UK said this week.

We will know definitively in the next few months.

Rambling Man · 26-08-2020 11:11PM

normanoffside wrote: »

Breaking News!

But we don’t know where!

fritzelly · 26-08-2020 11:11PM

Rambling Man wrote: »

Hogan gone

Welcome to the future

lee_baby_simms · 26-08-2020 11:12PM

fritzelly wrote: »

Welcome to the future

Nationwide lockdown?

Always_Running · 26-08-2020 11:12PM

Rambling Man wrote: »

Hogan gone

Wolf359f · 26-08-2020 11:13PM

political analyst wrote: »

You're comparing apples with oranges. There's a world of difference between being educated and being arrested.

This virus's fatality rate is not much higher than that of the flu.

Pupils with cystic fibrosis still won't be able to go back to school anyway - so they won't get it from some other pupils refusing to wear masks.

You're the one citing constitutional protections and the link you supplied just happened to be a link to protections under the constitution for prisoners.

What Username Guidelines · 26-08-2020 11:13PM

Rambling Man wrote: »

Hogan gone

Boris Johnson diagnosed with coronavirus

Wolf359f · 26-08-2020 11:14PM

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

Boris Johnson diagnosed with coronavirus

You're gonna have people talking about the reinfections from covid now lol.
It's as bad as the max break yesterday!

What Username Guidelines · 26-08-2020 11:19PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Maybe its a bit of both?

Clearly understated cases in March/April by several multiples which means it was not as deadly as it appeared.

Who is say it is not less deadly?

Coronaviruses (common colds) have done this in the past and all do eventually in order for them to survive and this virus has had plenty of hosts compared to previous coronavirus thousands of years ago which would not have spread so quickly given that the world was a lot less connected then. There is plenty of coronaviruses around now that are practically harmless to anyone, except the extremely vulnerable.

Also what does a hospitalisation actually tell anyone?

I dont think its a great metric for serious illness.

Some people are admitted due to their age/condition as a precaution.

If i broke my leg and was tested for covid and tested positive thats a hospital admission. What does that tell anyone.

The true indicators of illness are ICU admissions and deaths.

Hospital admissions is a hell of alot more flakey.

The facts are the facts.

4 people in ICU despite 1000's of cases in the last month, many of which were over the age of 40.

Next to no actual deaths occuring.

There is probably more people currently dieing of many illnesses possibly even the flu as a doctor in UK said this week.

We will know definitively in the next few months.

That’s a great point actually, at first it was all looking at cases. Then as we realised various factors it was better ignore cases (mostly) and consider hospitalised, ICUs, and deaths. Now that more routine services are starting, we’ll see more admissions testing picking up cases, and as stephenjmcd mentioned a lot of these will be discharged quickly, and we don’t know their condition overall. If you then just follow ICU and deaths, they’re incredibly stable while hospitalised bounce around a bit.

Covid 19 Part XXII-30,360 in ROI(1,781 deaths) 8,035 in NI (568 deaths)(10/09)Read OP

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