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Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

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    #2942
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,802 ✭✭✭hometruths


    beauf wrote: »
    What you quoted has very little to do with your assertion.

    How do people estimate demand?

    Some more accurately than others. Fliball for instance estimates it as those people who want to buy a house irrespective of whether or not they are able to do so!

    Why is my assertion so irrelevant to what I quoted?


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    #2943
    The_Conductor
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 32,279 Mod ✭✭✭✭The_Conductor


    schmittel wrote: »
    Interesting article in the Irish Times - Irish people have a distorted view of the realities of their country



    Are people overestimating the levels of demand in the property market?

    From the article it would seem that the IT managed to find an unrepresentative sample- and despite that fact- ran with it anyway, because they invested so much time and effort in conducting the survey.

    So- a fail from the IT on this one. They *need* to make a more concerted effort to ensure their sample is more closely aligned with the population- than the subset they managed to engage with.

    There is the issue though- that a certain demographic are more likely to respond to these type surveys- how do they design their surveys going forward to be more encompassing of the population in general?


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    #2944
    The_Conductor
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 32,279 Mod ✭✭✭✭The_Conductor


    PommieBast wrote: »
    Wasn't that precisely what caused one Green TD to resign and another reprimanded?

    Wow- they lost speaking rights for 6 weeks- and 4 of the 6 weeks they're officially on holidays anyway- its not much of a reprimand.

    Essentially one of the three government parties- cannot be relied upon (in any manner shape or form) and should be treated by FF/FG as hostile opposition rather an allied government members.


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    #2945
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,802 ✭✭✭hometruths


    The_Conductor wrote: »
    From the article it would seem that the IT managed to find an unrepresentative sample- and despite that fact- ran with it anyway, because they invested so much time and effort in conducting the survey.

    So- a fail from the IT on this one. They *need* to make a more concerted effort to ensure their sample is more closely aligned with the population- than the subset they managed to engage with.

    There is the issue though- that a certain demographic are more likely to respond to these type surveys- how do they design their surveys going forward to be more encompassing of the population in general?

    What is the subset? I missed that.


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    #2946
    Hubertj
    Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    schmittel wrote: »
    Interesting article in the Irish Times - Irish people have a distorted view of the realities of their country



    Are people overestimating the levels of demand in the property market?

    Demand would also come from homeowners that want a different type of home? Apartment to house, house to bigger house, kids, etc?


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    #2947
    IAmTheReign
    Registered Users Posts: 339 ✭✭IAmTheReign


    Bass Reeves wrote: »
    It amazing the way lads with twist or cannot read a report.

    66% report prices as stagnant
    6%report priced increasing
    28%report prices falling
    Separately to that they report that during the COVID lockdown that some managed to secure a discount of on average 3%

    I could just as easily twist it that over 70% report prices increasing or holding there value

    Did you bother to read the quote in the post you replied to?
    The survey found that most estate agents reported that the level of enquiries had increased, while two-thirds of agents said prices were unchanged. Nonetheless, over a quarter of the survey said values had declined, while 6% said that prices had risen.

    Do you honestly not think over a quarter of EAs acknowledging that property prices are falling is an indication of a weakening market?


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    #2948
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,802 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Hubertj wrote: »
    Demand would also come from homeowners that want a different type of home? Apartment to house, house to bigger house, kids, etc?

    Of course. As would supply.


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    #2949
    tobsey
    Registered Users Posts: 1,275 ✭✭✭tobsey


    The_Conductor wrote: »
    From the article it would seem that the IT managed to find an unrepresentative sample- and despite that fact- ran with it anyway, because they invested so much time and effort in conducting the survey.

    So- a fail from the IT on this one. They *need* to make a more concerted effort to ensure their sample is more closely aligned with the population- than the subset they managed to engage with.

    There is the issue though- that a certain demographic are more likely to respond to these type surveys- how do they design their surveys going forward to be more encompassing of the population in general?

    I think you misread the article. It's not that the reporting population was unrepresentative, it's that their perception of the real statistics is off.

    They asked 700 odd people, what percentage of Irish adults own their own home. The 700 answered and the average was 49%. So the result from the survey was that Irish people think 49% of adults own their own home. The real statistics though state that 70% own their own home.

    That would indicate that anecdotal evidence and opinions of Irish people in general do not bear truth when compared with real statistics


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    #2950
    The_Conductor
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 32,279 Mod ✭✭✭✭The_Conductor


    tobsey wrote: »
    I think you misread the article. It's not that the reporting population was unrepresentative, it's that their perception of the real statistics is off.

    My bad- you're right, I misread it.
    :o


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    #2951
    Hubertj
    Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    tobsey wrote: »
    I think you misread the article. It's not that the reporting population was unrepresentative, it's that their perception of the real statistics is off.

    They asked 700 odd people, what percentage of Irish adults own their own home. The 700 answered and the average was 49%. So the result from the survey was that Irish people think 49% of adults own their own home. The real statistics though state that 70% own their own home.

    That would indicate that anecdotal evidence and opinions of Irish people in general do not bear truth when compared with real statistics

    i suppose a lot has to do with how well the likes of SF and other socialist parties portray failures, actual or fabricated, of government policy. Take housing, they roll out a guy who doesnt speak with a norther accent or hasn't blown anyone up. All of a sudden they have some credibility even though its all hot air and idealist.


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    #2952
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,651 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    schmittel wrote: »
    Some more accurately than others. Fliball for instance estimates it as those people who want to buy a house irrespective of whether or not they are able to do so!

    Why is my assertion so irrelevant to what I quoted?

    The article basically is saying peoples perception is often different from the reality. On everything. It really doesn't talk about the demand for housing specifically at all, maybe I missed it.

    But if you are talking about demand being over stated, and this thread is about the property market. How exactly do you estimate demand. Demand is relative to supply and its not all one market. There is all different types of housing, and types of budget. Its really not useful lumping it all together.


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    #2953
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,802 ✭✭✭hometruths


    beauf wrote: »
    The article basically is saying peoples perception is often different from the reality. On everything. It really doesn't talk about the demand for housing specifically at all, maybe I missed it.

    The short answer is if peoples perception is often different from reality on everything, presumably it is possible their perception on demand for housing is different from reality.

    The longer answer involves considering the actual figures quoted in the article, but as you say, maybe you missed that.
    beauf wrote: »
    But if you are talking about demand being over stated, and this thread is about the property market. How exactly do you estimate demand. Demand is relative to supply and its not all one market. There is all different types of housing, and types of budget. Its really not useful lumping it all together.

    Apologies, I should have been clearer. Maybe those who are lumping all demand in together saying property prices won't fall because demand exceeds supply are overestimating the overall levels of demand in the market


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    #2954
    brisan
    Registered Users Posts: 2,242 ✭✭✭brisan


    schmittel wrote: »
    The short answer is if peoples perception is often different from reality on everything, presumably it is possible their perception on demand for housing is different from reality.

    The longer answer involves considering the actual figures quoted in the article, but as you say, maybe you missed that.



    Apologies, I should have been clearer. Maybe those who are lumping all demand in together saying property prices won't fall because demand exceeds supply are overestimating the overall levels of demand in the market


    Demand without credit is not real demand


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    #2955
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,651 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    schmittel wrote: »
    The short answer is if peoples perception is often different from reality on everything, presumably it is possible their perception on demand for housing is different from reality.

    The longer answer involves considering the actual figures quoted in the article, but as you say, maybe you missed that.



    Apologies, I should have been clearer. Maybe those who are lumping all demand in together saying property prices won't fall because demand exceeds supply are overestimating the overall levels of demand in the market



    Maybe you could quote actual figures on housing demand from that article.


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    #2956
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,802 ✭✭✭hometruths


    brisan wrote: »
    [/B]

    Demand without credit is not real demand

    Assuming we're excluding cash buyers, couldn't agree more.


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    #2957
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,802 ✭✭✭hometruths


    beauf wrote: »
    Maybe you could quote actual figures on housing demand from that article.

    There are no figures specifically referring to housing demand in that article.


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    #2958
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,651 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    schmittel wrote: »
    There are no figures specifically referring to housing demand in that article.

    Which was my point originally.

    Regardless of that. Its interesting to discuss demand. On these forums we have people saying they can't find a place, others saying there's loads of places. There has to be some middle ground.


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    #2959
    brisan
    Registered Users Posts: 2,242 ✭✭✭brisan


    beauf wrote: »
    Which was my point originally.

    Regardless of that. Its interesting to discuss demand. On these forums we have people saying they can't find a place, others saying there's loads of places. There has to be some middle ground.

    Turnkey houses in good areas will always be in demand
    lesser properties in less desirable areas will always be available
    To a lesser extent turnkey properties in less desirable will always be available


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    #2960
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,802 ✭✭✭hometruths


    beauf wrote: »
    Which was my point originally.

    Regardless of that. Its interesting to discuss demand. On these forums we have people saying they can't find a place, others saying there's loads of places. There has to be some middle ground.

    In discussing demand, irrespective of the different types pf property/location etc that make up the market, would you agree that FTBs are a key driver of net overall demand?


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    #2961
    cubatahavana
    Registered Users Posts: 990 ✭✭✭cubatahavana


    Regarding the article and going a little off-topic, I’m shocked that nearly 30% of households are mainly social welfare recipients.


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    #2962
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,651 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    brisan wrote: »
    [/B]

    Demand without credit is not real demand

    Why do you think there is no credit.

    One of the issue is banks have changed their lending criteria, then are re-assessing people. But they are backlogged. So it has stopped people drawing down and even getting approval in the first place. The solicitors and valuers and assessors and even EA are not all working, or on holidays at the moment. So viewings stopped, building stopped, competitions stopped.

    Not there won't be a recession there obviously will be. But is there enough demand for the supply that is available. That is a more nuanced question. I know people who have gone mortgage approved recently, and the thread here people were delayed in drawing down.

    Lots of facets to this.


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    #2963
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,651 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    schmittel wrote: »
    In discussing demand, irrespective of the different types pf property/location etc that make up the market, would you agree that FTBs are a key driver of net overall demand?

    You can't ignore the type of property or location.

    Because there maybe no starter family homes, but loads of premium apartments in city center locations. You can't say here is no problem with supply. The demand might be for starter homes only.


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    #2964
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,802 ✭✭✭hometruths


    beauf wrote: »
    You can't ignore the type of property or location.

    Because there maybe no starter family homes, but loads of premium apartments in city center locations. You can't say here is no problem with supply. The demand might be for starter homes only.

    OK fine, what do you think is the strongest driver of current demand? For example personally I think it is starter homes for FTBs.


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    #2965
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    FYI. This is the Q2 2020 Docklands Residential Market Review from OwenReilly. They would be one of the bigger letting agents for properties in the Docklands area in Dublin.

    Summary of their analysis:

    1. 53% of our sales fell through at the onset of Covid-19.

    2. Selling prices 6.63% above asking price since lockdown which reflects pent up demand.

    3. 82% less for sales listings compared to Q1.

    4. Rent fell 9% in Q2.

    5. 7% of our managed portfolio terminated their tenancies as a result of large tech companies telling their employees they could work from home for the rest of the year. Nearly all have told us they will return.

    In relation to point 2 above, I'd assume these are mostly pre-covid sales agreed going through as the report is just for Q2 so I doubt it's 'pent up demand' as the report states.

    In relation to point 5 above, this was before Google announced at the end of July that most of their employees would be WFH until July 2021 at the earliest, so I wouldn't be as optimistic as they are in their statement "Nearly all have told us they will return". I'd assume the figure would be higher today.

    The link to the report is here: https://www.owenreilly.ie/marketintelligence/q2-2020-docklands-residential-market-review/


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    #2966
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,651 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    schmittel wrote: »
    OK fine, what do you think is the strongest driver of current demand? For example personally I think it is starter homes for FTBs.

    I don't have stats on current demand. Last year FTB were around 40%. Without any information to the contrary you'd assume it would be the same this year. But this is not a normal year.

    Do you have any stats on 2020?

    https://www.scsi.ie/documents/get_lob?id=1529&field=file
    https://www.scsi.ie/documents/get_lob?id=1559&field=file


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    #2967
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,802 ✭✭✭hometruths


    I don't have any stats to hand but I don't need them to consider the point I am trying to get at;
    • FTBs are a critical demand component of the market.
    • People believe that FTB demand is drawn from approx 50% of the adult population.
    • The reality is that FTB demand is drawn from only 30% of the population.

    Thus it is possible that if people are overestimating the size of the current potential pool of buyers then maybe people are overestimating the current levels of demand.

    Developers rising levels of unsold stock would also suggest so.


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    #2968
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,802 ✭✭✭hometruths


    When I quote stats on this thread, inevitably some poster will jump in and say "Pfft those stats are nonsense, you cannot trust the census, my perception is this and I think what is happening is etc etc"

    Then when I ask a poster what they think - i.e what is their perception of the market, they quote stats!

    It's baffling!


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    #2969
    Hubertj
    Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    PropQueries wrote: »
    FYI. This is the Q2 2020 Docklands Residential Market Review from OwenReilly. They would be one of the bigger letting agents for properties in the Docklands area in Dublin.

    Summary of their analysis:

    1. 53% of our sales fell through at the onset of Covid-19.

    2. Selling prices 6.63% above asking price since lockdown which reflects pent up demand.

    3. 82% less for sales listings compared to Q1.

    4. Rent fell 9% in Q2.

    5. 7% of our managed portfolio terminated their tenancies as a result of large tech companies telling their employees they could work from home for the rest of the year. Nearly all have told us they will return.

    In relation to point 2 above, I'd assume these are mostly pre-covid sales agreed going through as the report is just for Q2 so I doubt it's 'pent up demand' as the report states.

    In relation to point 5 above, this was before Google announced at the end of July that most of their employees would be WFH until July 2021 at the earliest, so I wouldn't be as optimistic as they are in their statement "Nearly all have told us they will return". I'd assume the figure would be higher today.

    The link to the report is here: https://www.owenreilly.ie/marketintelligence/q2-2020-docklands-residential-market-review/

    surprised it wasnt more than 7% in Q2. I live close to Docklands and would run there every day. It was like a ghost town for a couple of months. It has gotten busier over the last 4-6 weeks.
    Note that while a lot of people went back to their home country, they were advised they had the be back in Ireland within 6 months.


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    #2970
    Hubertj
    Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    schmittel wrote: »
    When I quote stats on this thread, inevitably some poster will jump in and say "Pfft those stats are nonsense, you cannot trust the census, my perception is this and I think what is happening is etc etc"

    Then when I ask a poster what they think - i.e what is their perception of the market, they quote stats!

    It's baffling!

    lets not go down that rabbit hole again!!!!!


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    #2971
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    Hubertj wrote: »
    surprised it wasnt more than 7% in Q2. I live close to Docklands and would run there every day. It was like a ghost town for a couple of months. It has gotten busier over the last 4-6 weeks.
    Note that while a lot of people went back to their home country, they were advised they had the be back in Ireland within 6 months.

    Good point. But, if they thought they would only be in their home country for a few months, I don't think they would have terminated their leases given the reported difficulties in leasing new accommodation.

    I could be wrong, but if those 7% terminated their leases, I'd assume many of those are not coming back, for whatever reason. I could be wrong though.


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