schmittel wrote: » Interesting article in the Irish Times - Irish people have a distorted view of the realities of their country Are people overestimating the levels of demand in the property market?
Bass Reeves wrote: » It amazing the way lads with twist or cannot read a report. 66% report prices as stagnant 6%report priced increasing 28%report prices falling Separately to that they report that during the COVID lockdown that some managed to secure a discount of on average 3% I could just as easily twist it that over 70% report prices increasing or holding there value
The survey found that most estate agents reported that the level of enquiries had increased, while two-thirds of agents said prices were unchanged. Nonetheless, over a quarter of the survey said values had declined, while 6% said that prices had risen.
Hubertj wrote: » Demand would also come from homeowners that want a different type of home? Apartment to house, house to bigger house, kids, etc?
The_Conductor wrote: » From the article it would seem that the IT managed to find an unrepresentative sample- and despite that fact- ran with it anyway, because they invested so much time and effort in conducting the survey. So- a fail from the IT on this one. They *need* to make a more concerted effort to ensure their sample is more closely aligned with the population- than the subset they managed to engage with. There is the issue though- that a certain demographic are more likely to respond to these type surveys- how do they design their surveys going forward to be more encompassing of the population in general?
tobsey wrote: » I think you misread the article. It's not that the reporting population was unrepresentative, it's that their perception of the real statistics is off.
tobsey wrote: » I think you misread the article. It's not that the reporting population was unrepresentative, it's that their perception of the real statistics is off. They asked 700 odd people, what percentage of Irish adults own their own home. The 700 answered and the average was 49%. So the result from the survey was that Irish people think 49% of adults own their own home. The real statistics though state that 70% own their own home. That would indicate that anecdotal evidence and opinions of Irish people in general do not bear truth when compared with real statistics
schmittel wrote: » Some more accurately than others. Fliball for instance estimates it as those people who want to buy a house irrespective of whether or not they are able to do so! Why is my assertion so irrelevant to what I quoted?
beauf wrote: » The article basically is saying peoples perception is often different from the reality. On everything. It really doesn't talk about the demand for housing specifically at all, maybe I missed it.
beauf wrote: » But if you are talking about demand being over stated, and this thread is about the property market. How exactly do you estimate demand. Demand is relative to supply and its not all one market. There is all different types of housing, and types of budget. Its really not useful lumping it all together.
schmittel wrote: » The short answer is if peoples perception is often different from reality on everything, presumably it is possible their perception on demand for housing is different from reality. The longer answer involves considering the actual figures quoted in the article, but as you say, maybe you missed that. Apologies, I should have been clearer. Maybe those who are lumping all demand in together saying property prices won't fall because demand exceeds supply are overestimating the overall levels of demand in the market
brisan wrote: » [/B] Demand without credit is not real demand
beauf wrote: » Maybe you could quote actual figures on housing demand from that article.
schmittel wrote: » There are no figures specifically referring to housing demand in that article.
beauf wrote: » Which was my point originally. Regardless of that. Its interesting to discuss demand. On these forums we have people saying they can't find a place, others saying there's loads of places. There has to be some middle ground.
schmittel wrote: » In discussing demand, irrespective of the different types pf property/location etc that make up the market, would you agree that FTBs are a key driver of net overall demand?
beauf wrote: » You can't ignore the type of property or location. Because there maybe no starter family homes, but loads of premium apartments in city center locations. You can't say here is no problem with supply. The demand might be for starter homes only.
schmittel wrote: » OK fine, what do you think is the strongest driver of current demand? For example personally I think it is starter homes for FTBs.
PropQueries wrote: » FYI. This is the Q2 2020 Docklands Residential Market Review from OwenReilly. They would be one of the bigger letting agents for properties in the Docklands area in Dublin. Summary of their analysis:1. 53% of our sales fell through at the onset of Covid-19.2. Selling prices 6.63% above asking price since lockdown which reflects pent up demand.3. 82% less for sales listings compared to Q1.4. Rent fell 9% in Q2.5. 7% of our managed portfolio terminated their tenancies as a result of large tech companies telling their employees they could work from home for the rest of the year. Nearly all have told us they will return. In relation to point 2 above, I'd assume these are mostly pre-covid sales agreed going through as the report is just for Q2 so I doubt it's 'pent up demand' as the report states. In relation to point 5 above, this was before Google announced at the end of July that most of their employees would be WFH until July 2021 at the earliest, so I wouldn't be as optimistic as they are in their statement "Nearly all have told us they will return". I'd assume the figure would be higher today. The link to the report is here: https://www.owenreilly.ie/marketintelligence/q2-2020-docklands-residential-market-review/
schmittel wrote: » When I quote stats on this thread, inevitably some poster will jump in and say "Pfft those stats are nonsense, you cannot trust the census, my perception is this and I think what is happening is etc etc" Then when I ask a poster what they think - i.e what is their perception of the market, they quote stats! It's baffling!
Hubertj wrote: » surprised it wasnt more than 7% in Q2. I live close to Docklands and would run there every day. It was like a ghost town for a couple of months. It has gotten busier over the last 4-6 weeks. Note that while a lot of people went back to their home country, they were advised they had the be back in Ireland within 6 months.
schmittel wrote: » I don't have any stats to hand but I don't need them to consider the point I am trying to get at;FTBs are a critical demand component of the market. People believe that FTB demand is drawn from approx 50% of the adult population. The reality is that FTB demand is drawn from only 30% of the population. Thus it is possible that if people are overestimating the size of the current potential pool of buyers then maybe people are overestimating the current levels of demand. Developers rising levels of unsold stock would also suggest so.
Hubertj wrote: » lets not go down that rabbit hole again!!!!!
PropQueries wrote: » Good point. But, if they thought they would only be in their home country for a few months, I don't think they would have terminated their leases given the reported difficulties in leasing new accommodation. I could be wrong, but if those 7% terminated their leases, I'd assume many of those are not coming back, for whatever reason. I could be wrong though.
schmittel wrote: » I'm not just talking about you and the census; last week I quoted the numbers from the recent Ronan Lyons report, and another poster dismissed the numbers because they were based on the perceived requirement but the perception was wrong! This sort of thing is exactly why I found the IT article interesting.
