How will schools be able to go back in September? (Continued)

lulublue22 · 25-08-2020 09:50AM

meeeeh wrote: »

And what level of infection is acceptable to open schools? Just trying to figure out your scientific expertise on the issue. So at how many people per 100k is safe or not safe to open schools?

It’s easy to be smart when you have no skin in the game - I presume I’m entitled to an opinion no ? and I don’t recall ever having claimed to have any scientific knowledge however having listened to WHO re children and transmission , various studies re children and transmission and various reports of spread in schools around the world including Scotland , Israel, Melbourne , South Korea etc In MY OPINION given the numbers we are returning to schools , the rather poor guidance from the dep ( which provides no support to children in the at risk or at high risk category) the increase in the geographical spread of cases and rising numbers of CT reopening schools in Kildare as it stands now s a piss poor response by the gov.

Nice edit of my post re the need for a more nuanced plan.

meeeeh · 25-08-2020 09:53AM

irishblessing wrote: »

Very reactionary thinking. And for the millionth time on this thread... schools should open but in a much smarter, science led manner of which there are many examples of throughout the world.
Why is this such a difficult concept for so many.

Science doesn't equal your opinion. And there isn't even unanimous approach in scientific community. Plus politics is always taking into account different interests and making decisions. That's why scientists don't run the country.

Boggles · 25-08-2020 09:54AM

meeeeh wrote: »

So because there is a spread in Seul we shouldn't open schools in Ireland. And you are going on about cherry picking... What about we open schools like any normal country wil this autumn and see how it goes and close the schools in areas the need to be closed. You know like what South Korea in case of Seul are doing. But no apparently we shouldn't even open the schools...

I didn't mention or allude to either Seoul or South Korea in my post.

So the accusation that I was "cherry picking" is quite bizarre.

Drumpot · 25-08-2020 09:54AM

So it’s the herd immunity strategy.

Just read our children’s schools plans. Basically a copy and paste of what you’d expect. I don’t have any ill will towards teachers or principle who are doing the best with what they have been given (very little).

I’m disgusted with this approach. Head in the sand , plough through and hope it all works out. It’s not the children who will mostly pay for it , it’s others like teachers, healthcare workers and then more vulnerable part of the population who will pay for this poorly devises reopening.

I understand economic decisions have to be made but there is more then one way to address the reopening of schools. They’ve just gone full pelt and propaganda the sh*t out of it with lies about how the virus may spread or indirectly affect the wider population if there are many outbreaks.

The only shining light at the moment is the current evidence that suggests that numbers are increasing but deaths haven’t been anywhere near as high as they were back in March. There are multiple reasons this might be the case. My own instinct is to keep My children out of school but I also believe if they get a dose it shouldn’t hit them too bad. I’m letting peer pressure determine what I do, I’m not proud of it but I’m gonna own it. I’m not happy sending them back because the authorities are lieing about things to encourage children back but I will be sending them in as I know they will benefit a lot from being back and It will be a few weeks before we know how schools are doing.

I will keep a close eye on impartial data, not the selective information from “herd immunity full throttle “ Irish authorities.

irishblessing · 25-08-2020 09:56AM

meeeeh wrote: »

Science doesn't equal your opinion. And there isn't even unanimous approach in scientific community. Plus politics is always taking into account different interests and making decisions. That's why scientists don't run the country.

My opinion is that I agree with those approaches who most closely follow the science and act in prevention accordingly.

They mostly inform a country and rightly so. And I beg to differ - do you know who Angela Merkel is?? :pac:

lulublue22 · 25-08-2020 10:00AM

meeeeh wrote: »

Science doesn't equal your opinion. And there isn't even unanimous approach in scientific community. Plus politics is always taking into account different interests and making decisions. That's why scientists don't run the country.

None of which anyone has disputed. However given that we are in the middle of a global pandemic with a novel virus with rapidly evolving information/ conflicting information it would in my opinion be far better to have a more nuanced plan which would aid in slowing down transmission ensuring continuity of education and provide an alternative for those in the at risk and high risk category rather than a full steam ahead.

caveat emptor · 25-08-2020 10:13AM

Boggles wrote: »

I didn't mention or allude to either Seoul or South Korea in my post.

So the accusation that I was "cherry picking" is quite bizarre.

Some people just don't get it whether that's wilful or not, whether in a professional or amateur capacity.

You tried.

PCros · 25-08-2020 10:21AM

irishblessing wrote: »

Very reactionary thinking. And for the millionth time on this thread... schools should open but in a much smarter, science led manner of which there are many examples of throughout the world.

I keep hearing this but nobody seems to be showing an example of better plans...

Lets say you are in charge for the day...what would be your plan?

is_that_so · 25-08-2020 10:22AM

Drumpot wrote: »

So it’s the herd immunity strategy.

Just read our children’s schools plans. Basically a copy and paste of what you’d expect. I don’t have any ill will towards teachers or principle who are doing the best with what they have been given (very little).

I’m disgusted with this approach. Head in the sand , plough through and hope it all works out. It’s not the children who will mostly pay for it , it’s others like teachers, healthcare workers and then more vulnerable part of the population who will pay for this poorly devises reopening.

I understand economic decisions have to be made but there is more then one way to address the reopening of schools. They’ve just gone full pelt and propaganda the sh*t out of it with lies about how the virus may spread or indirectly affect the wider population if there are many outbreaks.

The only shining light at the moment is the current evidence that suggests that numbers are increasing but deaths haven’t been anywhere near as high as they were back in March. There are multiple reasons this might be the case. My own instinct is to keep My children out of school but I also believe if they get a dose it shouldn’t hit them too bad. I’m letting peer pressure determine what I do, I’m not proud of it but I’m gonna own it. I’m not happy sending them back because the authorities are lieing about things to encourage children back but I will be sending them in as I know they will benefit a lot from being back and It will be a few weeks before we know how schools are doing.

I will keep a close eye on impartial data, not the selective information from “herd immunity full throttle “ Irish authorities.

It's not herd immunity at all, it's managing the environment, an environment where evidence suggests that the risk is very low for children. Glynn said 3% of cases where children had contracted it from the community, most likely households. I don't think they are rushing into this and there may be flaws in the plan. As de Gascun said they want to keep the schools open for the whole school year. Failing to do so will be a complete abnegation of responsibility by the "authorities".

Nobody can tell you what to do with your own kids but sometimes it's no harm to stop and ask who we are making decisions for, ourselves or them?

25-08-2020 10:23AM

Official policy from NPHET is learn to live with which involves learning how to react when schools return. Only way to do that is to return.

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0824/1160974-coronavirus-ireland/

is_that_so · 25-08-2020 10:23AM

irishblessing wrote: »

Very reactionary thinking. And for the millionth time on this thread... schools should open but in a much smarter, science led manner of which there are many examples of throughout the world.
Why is this such a difficult concept for so many.

What do you understand this term to mean?

Boggles · 25-08-2020 10:28AM

is_that_so wrote: »

Glynn said 3% of cases where children had contracted it from the community, most likely households.

Glynn was asked and he "didn't know".

But I do chuckle at this "science", kids have most likely contracted it in the "community".

Well they hardly contracted the fúcking thing in school did they? Considering they have been closed for 6 months.

caveat emptor · 25-08-2020 10:32AM

Plenty of science and evidence saying it's crazy while community transmission is a thing.

https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1298167507572924417?s=20

There have been many claims that opening or keeping open schools has little effect on the spread of the coronavirus SARS- CoV-2, which causes COVID-19. However, empirical evidence shows that children can get severely sick with COVID-19 and that schools can have a large impact on its spread. While there is still much unknown about the exact transmission mechanism in children—further complicated by heterogeneity among children, as well as among societies and contexts—the question of how to act can often be answered without such detailed knowledge [1].

There are many examples of schools and child-care facilities substantially contributing to the spread of the virus. To give a few: In Texas as of July 6, there were 894 confirmed cases among staff and 441 among children from 883 of the state’s child care facilities [2]. By contrast, Texas reported only 59 total cases in 53 childcare facilities on May 15. In Israel, which had reduced its total number of new cases nationwide to less than 20 per day in mid May, there were 130 cases from a single school by June 3, just two weeks after schools fully reopened [3]. In England, nearly 20% of outbreaks from June 15-21 were from schools [4].
Some scientific analyses confirm the large role that schools play in spreading the virus, while there are others that do not find evidence of large effects from school closures [5]. Divergent results could be due to different modeling assumptions, as well as heterogeneity in the societies studied. For instance, if the virus is well-contained, schools are less likely spread the virus, and if no other interventions besides school closures are enacted, such closures may not have as large an effect. There is also mixed evidence on the degree to which children spread
the virus [6], which may arise in part because of substantial heterogeneity among children, with some infected children being far more contagious than others.

A common misconception is that children are rarely infected. CDC data indicates that as of April 2, 1.7% of confirmed cases are children (i.e. under 18 years of age) [7]. Given that people under 18 make up 22.3% of the 2019 U.S. population [8], this means that proportionally, children were 7.6% as likely to be infected as the general population. However, if infected children are less likely to be tested than infected adults (perhaps due to a greater percentage of children having milder or atypical symptoms), these numbers will be underestimates. A recent study analyzed contact-tracing data and found that children aged 0-14 were 34% as susceptible to the virus as adults aged 15-64 [9].
Another misconception is that children rarely become severely ill. However, of the confirmed CDC cases, 5.7% of children vs. 10% of adults required hospitalization (20% of children vs. 33% of adults it only cases in which hospitalization data is available are counted) [7]. Thus, among these confirmed cases, hospitalization rates of adults and children differ by less than a factor of two.
While the exact degree of transmission among children and the precise impact of school openings/closures are still unknown, recent school openings have shown just how dan- gerous they can be. Schools and day-care centers have already caused many super-spreader events; as long as community transmission persists, schools and day-care centers that reopen or remain open will likely cause additional super-spreader events that will hinder containment efforts.

meeeeh · 25-08-2020 10:39AM

irishblessing wrote: »

My opinion is that I agree with those approaches who most closely follow the science and act in prevention accordingly.

They mostly inform a country and rightly so. And I beg to differ - do you know who Angela Merkel is?? :pac:

Yes I do. She is a politician with PhD in chemistry leading the country that is already opening schools with some regional differences. She also in charge of a country with a health system paid by people taking up private insurance which encourages good capacity in the system. In normal circumstances some argue Germany has over capacity in their health system but it was very good in this pandemic. Their school system is similar to one I went to. Their schools were also back before summer as were the schools in the region (except Italy for obvious reasons). Those countries dealt with pandemic better in spring and never completely closed factories and similar workplaces as Ireland did. That part of the world opened almost all of the economy a lot quicker because they dealt with situation better.

Yes Germany did follow the science and they also followed it by using less restrictive measures but implementing them better and faster and doing testing better.

So what's your point? That we should be less restrictive in our approach and do more testing? I agree.

caveat emptor · 25-08-2020 10:39AM

Boggles wrote: »

Glynn was asked and he "didn't know".

But I do chuckle at this "science", kids have most likely contracted it in the "community".

Well they hardly contracted the fúcking thing in school did they? Considering they have been closed for 6 months.

Do you remember they said for weeks on end that none of the health care workers got it in a hospital (nosocomial)?

They repeated the oft heard "there is no evidence" and HCW all share a house together.

Then quietly reported that 72% of them probably got it in a healthcare setting. Same **** being rolled out with schools.

I understand that was to ensure nurses and doctor's showed up for work. The latest propaganda is to ensure kids go to school.

In both instances they could have put in place a plan to manage the risk, they didn't and people got infected.

They won't so kids will get infected.

HCW are still getting it. 36 got it in the week 9-15 August.

irishblessing · 25-08-2020 10:42AM

PCros wrote: »

I keep hearing this but nobody seems to be showing an example of better plans...

Lets say you are in charge for the day...what would be your plan?

No, I'm not playing this game anymore. The alternate plans have been listed here possibly hundreds of times.

Now posts like yours crop up nearly every single day because you can't be bothered to read back even a small way over the thread. Spend your own time reading back instead of wasting mine.

Peter Flynt · 25-08-2020 10:45AM

is_that_so wrote: »

It's not herd immunity at all, it's managing the environment, an environment where evidence suggests that the risk is very low for children. Glynn said 3% of cases where children had contracted it from the community, most likely households. I don't think they are rushing into this and there may be flaws in the plan. As de Gascun said they want to keep the schools open for the whole school year. Failing to do so will be a complete abnegation of responsibility by the "authorities".

Nobody can tell you what to do with your own kids but sometimes it's no harm to stop and ask who we are making decisions for, ourselves or them?

We live in a country where the majority of people are not children.
The opening of schools is an issue for every person regardless of whether they have children or not.

caveat emptor · 25-08-2020 10:47AM

meeeeh wrote: »

So what's your point? That we should be less restrictive in our approach and do more testing? I agree.

What's your point? Let's try and anticipate what might happen as opposed to reacting to it when it's already happened.

Kids go back to school.
Social distancing not possible.
Students parent works in a meat packing factory or a direct provision centre. (because that is the source of al clusters as we know :rolleyes:)

Young kids get infected during pre symptomatic phase. Go home give it to mam initially and older brother.

Older brother goes into his school. Gives it to his classmates.

Due to the average number of 'contacts' (classmates)

You are now fighting a fire you can't put out.

Schools close
businesses close
economy tanks.

So saying we need to open the economy while not dealing with the realities of the virus is short term thinking on steroids.

is_that_so · 25-08-2020 10:47AM

Peter Flynt wrote: »

We live in a country where the majority of people are not children.
The opening of schools is an issue for every person regardless of whether they have children or not.

It is but the poster was talking about their own feelings about their own children.

is_that_so · 25-08-2020 10:49AM

caveat emptor wrote: »

What's your point? Let's try and anticipate what might happen as opposed to reacting to it when it's already happened.

Kids go back to school.
Social distancing not possible.
Students parent works in a meat packing factory or a direct provision centre. (because that is the source of al clusters as we know :rolleyes:)

Young kids get infected during pre symptomatic phase. Go home give it to mam initially and older brother.

Older brother goes into his school. Gives it to his classmates.

Due to the average number of 'contacts' (classmates)

You are now fighting a fire you can't put out.

Schools close
businesses close
economy tanks.

So saying we need to open the economy while not dealing with the realities of the virus is short term thinking on steroids.

That's a whole lot of conditions to be satisfied for this scenario to be true. Cases are expected in schools regardless of when they reopen. The challenge is mitigation and control.

PCros · 25-08-2020 10:51AM

irishblessing wrote: »

No, I'm not playing this game anymore. The alternate plans have been listed here possibly hundreds of times.

Now posts like yours crop up nearly every single day because you can't be bothered to read back even a small way over the thread. Spend your own time reading back instead of wasting mine.

I'm just asking for your opinion as you brought it up...but anyway.

caveat emptor · 25-08-2020 10:52AM

is_that_so wrote: »

That's a whole lot of conditions to be satisfied for this scenario to be true. Cases are expected in schools regardless of when they reopen. The challenge is mitigation and control.

The sample size is sufficiently large and the evidence is such that I'd go so far as to say it's probable. We've herded our kids in to classrooms that are too small.
That wasn't a systematic risk until recently. Instead of addressing that small issue we are carrying on with some form of stiff upper lip horses!t.

meeeeh · 25-08-2020 10:53AM

caveat emptor wrote: »

So saying we need to open the economy while not dealing with the realities of the virus is short term thinking on steroids.

Germans did it reasonably successfully. And no I'm not for getting rid of all restrictions over night. Leaving pubs closed till schools reopen is probably prudent enough.

I don't think some here actually realise how badly Ireland managed situation in spring in comparison to central Europe and I think some here think we should continue with the bad management.

PCros · 25-08-2020 10:56AM

caveat emptor wrote: »

What's your point? Let's try and anticipate what might happen as opposed to reacting to it when it's already happened.

Kids go back to school.
Social distancing not possible.
Students parent works in a meat packing factory or a direct provision centre. (because that is the source of al clusters as we know :rolleyes:)
[/B]

That would be worst case scenario and I do get that it could happen, but highly unlikely.

Just like the 100k deaths Sam McConkey was predicting back in March.

is_that_so · 25-08-2020 10:57AM

caveat emptor wrote: »

The sample size is sufficiently large and the evidence is such that I'd go so far as to say it's probable. We've herded our kids in to classrooms that are too small.
That wasn't a systematic risk until recently. Instead of addressing that small issue we are carrying on with some form of stiff upper lip horses!t.

Now that's a different problem to them just going back but a very real one. It's unlikely to be solved in the very near term but with the whole public health cadre in it and very big wadges of money in time they should be able to find ways to mitigate that.

25-08-2020 10:59AM

It would be very silly if the schools were not to open. Children need education.

Drumpot · 25-08-2020 11:05AM

PCros wrote: »

That would be worst case scenario and I do get that it could happen, but highly unlikely.

Just like the 100k deaths Sam McConkey was predicting back in March.

My issue , like most, isn’t that schools are reopening, it’s how they are going about reopening. I want more options (online), I want more diversity (phased reopening , much smaller classes) and more honest discussion (masks for children).

It’s funny cause on the recent correspondence from our schools it says if a child is suspected with having the virus they will put a mask on their face. But aren’t a significant proportion people/children asymptomatic? So asymptomatic children wont be wearing a mask in school as they won’t know they have it, but the school is saying they will be putting a mask on as soon as they know. Would all children wearing masks be not the obvious strategy to employ?

caveat emptor · 25-08-2020 11:06AM

PCros wrote: »

That would be worst case scenario and I do get that it could happen, but highly unlikely.

Just like the 100k deaths Sam McConkey was predicting back in March.

Those predictions based on no mitigation strategies.

https://twitter.com/zorinaq/status/1297910293176098817?s=20

alroley · 25-08-2020 11:06AM

Deleted User wrote: »

It would be very silly if the schools were not to open. Children need education.

If only we had alternatives :rolleyes:

The countries that successfully went back to school with classes of 10-15 were not silly. Ireland with 30, 35,40 and even as high as 45? Maybe a little silly :rolleyes:

PCros · 25-08-2020 11:09AM

Drumpot wrote: »

Would all children wearing masks be not the obvious strategy to employ?

Totally agree with this however having a kid starting Junior Infants this year I just know he would have that pulled off his face within the first 10 mins!

I just don't know at what age they should wear them - possibly 8 year olds and upwards?

How will schools be able to go back in September? (Continued)

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