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Storm Francis - 24th/25th August 2020
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22-08-2020 1:34pm#1Thought it might be timely to begin a thread about the next system approaching later Monday 24th into Tues 25th. Not sure if it will be giving a storm name , it is up to UK Met to call this one and it might just fall under the criteria for naming it.
Anyway we can keep an eye on it and see how it progresses.
ECM, UKMO, ARPEGE and GFS all quite well grouped in track and strength at this early stage but there is obviously variances in where the strongest winds will be. Models in the last couple of runs show the track of the system more crossing central Ireland keeping the strongest winds in the SW and along Southern coasts. The further S the system the more it will take the strongest winds offshore and like wise the further N it tracks the stronger the winds inland. It may be that a large area of Ireland does not get any notable winds from this.
Rain wise looks heavy especially in the W and along S and SE coasts.
Los of instability could lead to some vigorous thunderstorms from early morning moving up through the country from the SW I reckon.
Just to Note that ICON has given the system a very flabby look on its latest run and not showing any significant winds, big departure from the last run and this might be an outlier.
The GFS is probably a fair representation of the models in general for the moment anyway if perhaps a bit stronger.
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The 12Z analysis just now shows where Tuesday's system is originating. An area of high theta-e, under an increasing jetstream, which will reach around 270 kph at 200 hPa tomorrow. A lot of scope for changes in how the deepening surface low phases with this jet later tomorrow and during Monday, so no point looking at specifics for now, but at least it's more of a typical baroclinic storm, rather than of post-tropical origin.
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I keep being stuck by the more compact / cyclonic appearance of this and also Ellen. Just more visually impressive.
12Z ECM not convinced of anything more than perhaps 100km/h gusts.
UKMO has the core of the wind well out to sea, albeit slightly stronger.
6Z GFS showing a stronger system.
All looks benign in comparison to early Ellen charts but also slower moving with larger areas of the strongest winds perhaps lasting 6 to 8 hrs in places.
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Again the GFS ECM and ARPEGE sre fairly well grouped. UKMO and ICON taking a lower track through the SW to the SE and hence keeping the stronger winds off shore.
I think the main factor showing up atm is the rainfall amounts, can see the models showing large amounts falling in 24 hrs, between 20 and 35m widespread and up to 50 mm in places possible. I wouldn't take the areas being shown as definite's, just an indication of possible heavy rain leading to spot flooding or more localised flooding.
Still early days and has been discussed, modelling currently proving a bit more tricky as less data available due to less marine and air traffic.
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The UKMO have it as a fast-moving system, with its centre passing right over the centre of Ireland. It won't just affect Ireland, however, so it will be a race to see which country names it first. Could be us, the UK or Netherlands, but in any case it would be Francis.
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Looking quite windy now for early Tuesday across the southern half of the country and more so in the SW and S coasts. All areas look to be a bit windy at some stage, parts of the Northern half of the country will experience calm conditions as the center of the Low passes over and turn windy after. Very heavy rainfall and possibly thundery as the initial fronts go through. ECM, ARPEGE, EURO 4 on a slightly more Northerly track than GFS, ICON but only just.
Would tend to side with ARPEGE for the moment as looking like the probable winds that we could get and an idea of rainfall accumulations. A bit further S will reduce the winds a bit.
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GFS much of the same really. Wind field a bit larger and further south. No orange level wind over land.
Fine margins though, 25km/h higher is red territory which of course is more a failing of the absolutely ridiculous warning criteria than anything meaningful.
Bear in mind at this range in advance of Ellen one model (ECM) was calling for 202km/h in around the same location.
Rainfall though is a different story. Much of Galway and Mayo well into orange warning territory >50mm/24h.
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