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Storm Francis - 24th/25th August 2020
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22-08-2020 1:34pm#1Thought it might be timely to begin a thread about the next system approaching later Monday 24th into Tues 25th. Not sure if it will be giving a storm name , it is up to UK Met to call this one and it might just fall under the criteria for naming it.
Anyway we can keep an eye on it and see how it progresses.
ECM, UKMO, ARPEGE and GFS all quite well grouped in track and strength at this early stage but there is obviously variances in where the strongest winds will be. Models in the last couple of runs show the track of the system more crossing central Ireland keeping the strongest winds in the SW and along Southern coasts. The further S the system the more it will take the strongest winds offshore and like wise the further N it tracks the stronger the winds inland. It may be that a large area of Ireland does not get any notable winds from this.
Rain wise looks heavy especially in the W and along S and SE coasts.
Los of instability could lead to some vigorous thunderstorms from early morning moving up through the country from the SW I reckon.
Just to Note that ICON has given the system a very flabby look on its latest run and not showing any significant winds, big departure from the last run and this might be an outlier.
The GFS is probably a fair representation of the models in general for the moment anyway if perhaps a bit stronger.
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The 12Z analysis just now shows where Tuesday's system is originating. An area of high theta-e, under an increasing jetstream, which will reach around 270 kph at 200 hPa tomorrow. A lot of scope for changes in how the deepening surface low phases with this jet later tomorrow and during Monday, so no point looking at specifics for now, but at least it's more of a typical baroclinic storm, rather than of post-tropical origin.
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I keep being stuck by the more compact / cyclonic appearance of this and also Ellen. Just more visually impressive.
12Z ECM not convinced of anything more than perhaps 100km/h gusts.
UKMO has the core of the wind well out to sea, albeit slightly stronger.
6Z GFS showing a stronger system.
All looks benign in comparison to early Ellen charts but also slower moving with larger areas of the strongest winds perhaps lasting 6 to 8 hrs in places.
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Again the GFS ECM and ARPEGE sre fairly well grouped. UKMO and ICON taking a lower track through the SW to the SE and hence keeping the stronger winds off shore.
I think the main factor showing up atm is the rainfall amounts, can see the models showing large amounts falling in 24 hrs, between 20 and 35m widespread and up to 50 mm in places possible. I wouldn't take the areas being shown as definite's, just an indication of possible heavy rain leading to spot flooding or more localised flooding.
Still early days and has been discussed, modelling currently proving a bit more tricky as less data available due to less marine and air traffic.
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The UKMO have it as a fast-moving system, with its centre passing right over the centre of Ireland. It won't just affect Ireland, however, so it will be a race to see which country names it first. Could be us, the UK or Netherlands, but in any case it would be Francis.
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Looking quite windy now for early Tuesday across the southern half of the country and more so in the SW and S coasts. All areas look to be a bit windy at some stage, parts of the Northern half of the country will experience calm conditions as the center of the Low passes over and turn windy after. Very heavy rainfall and possibly thundery as the initial fronts go through. ECM, ARPEGE, EURO 4 on a slightly more Northerly track than GFS, ICON but only just.
Would tend to side with ARPEGE for the moment as looking like the probable winds that we could get and an idea of rainfall accumulations. A bit further S will reduce the winds a bit.
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GFS much of the same really. Wind field a bit larger and further south. No orange level wind over land.
Fine margins though, 25km/h higher is red territory which of course is more a failing of the absolutely ridiculous warning criteria than anything meaningful.
Bear in mind at this range in advance of Ellen one model (ECM) was calling for 202km/h in around the same location.
Rainfall though is a different story. Much of Galway and Mayo well into orange warning territory >50mm/24h.
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On the contrary, ECM not convinced yet. But a slight upgrade on its part nonetheless.
I wouldn't like to be the one calling this one. I'd say they probably will, eventually, given all the recent rainfall, wind and the potential that the ground is sodden and trees will already be weakened as well as in full leaf.
The 146km/h mark can be discounted as it's 3,000ft in the air.
Generally gusts struggling to 110km/h or to a mean of 65km/h over land.
Rainfall 6h/24h also barely just almost at Orange levels. (45-50mm/24h - Orange would be 50mm/24h + )
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Analysis at 18Z has it 1010 hPa at 44N 40W, slightly higher than forecast yesterday. Water vapour image for the same time. The low centre is located just north of that darkest green blob near the centre of the image.
UKMO Fax shows slightly stronger gradient winds along the west and south coasts. The centre will be travelling at around 40 kph so it will be a fairly quick period of maximum winds. Out at the current centre the total precipitable water is 50-55 mm, so plenty to generate those high rainfall totals, especially on southeast-facing upslopes, such as in Kerry, Cork and Wicklow.
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ECM, UKMO and ARPEGE quite tightly grouped, GFS a small bit lower and deeper, ICON higher pressure by far and coming in the furthest S.
So ARPEGE probably a good representation of the first group, been fairly consistent also, HARMONIE coming into view and looks like the highest winds very much a coastal thing. Track similar to UKMO, down to 979 hPa just off the N Kerry coast at 07.00 Tues and 983 hPa at 13.00 as the center is over the East coast.
Marine warning might go Orange and this might cover coastal land areas.
Looks like a high end Yellow warning in the Munster region atm.
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I think it could go to an Orange warning level for rainfall along the SW, S. Going by the ECM looks like they could get over 30 mm in 6 hours . UKMO similar
Was in Killarney today and the lakes are extremely high, even spilling into the car parks at Ross Castle.
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Meteorite58 wrote: »Met Office
Tues 01.00
This does not look to dissimilar to the pattern which brought some record-breaking rainfall totals to the SW back in August 1986. Syran spoke of this event just recently in fact.New Moon
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