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Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

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    #2822
    Smouse156
    Registered Users Posts: 529 ✭✭✭Smouse156


    Cyrus wrote: »
    everyones dreams are different.

    you could pay a couple of million for a house in killiney or dalkey with a great sea view, not massive and most likely no swimming pool or tennis court, to a lot of people thats still a dream home.

    or you could buy an apartment in grey stones with similar views, 5/600k, could be someones dream home.

    Is a small tight apartment in Wicklow is someone’s “dream home” then that’s very sad! The Estate Agents have truly conned them.

    We could start calling all houses Mansions/Villas as well as “dream homes” but one has to feel words are starting to be mis-used!

    I’m looking to buy myself next year and have yet to see a single house in Dublin I would consider “value for money” or a “dream home” in the sub-million bracket! Mostly vastly overpriced due to the Brickie overpaying for the land or vested interests saying “not in my back yard!”.

    RIP-OFF republic is likely to be here for a long time to come!

    Outside Dublin, there are houses that could be considered reasonable value for money


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    #2823
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,821 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Bass Reeves wrote: »
    Very few people buy houses they can easily afford in Dublin. Yes outside of the big cities people buy houses they can easily afford but in any big city you will push the boat out to get a house especially if you have a family that you can get access to decent schools and areas that have the least social problems.

    During the noughties people had this fad of getting on the property ladder. At present most people seem to want to buy a house that will not require them to trade up again. But it a bit if a jump from a starter home to a decent family home.

    But the economics of going for that jump from a starter home to a decent family home in a single jump are fundamentally good in the long-term. It costs in the region of 20-40k to move house in indirect costs

    It might not be so fundamentally good in the long term.

    If all the FTB demand now is for a decent family home, and builders build to meet this demand need now rather than the long term needs of changing demographics etc, it's possible that there will be oversupply in the medium to long term.


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    #2824
    Pelezico
    Registered Users Posts: 681 ✭✭✭Pelezico


    Markitron wrote: »
    I'm not a fan of that particular phrase, but it is plain to see that the interpretation of it varies from person to person. You can't apply yours to everyone else.

    Personally speaking, my 'dream home' is one that doesn't contain my mother.

    The dream home is a modern co structure born of envy, aspiration and snobbery.

    It went out of fashion for a while but came back with a vengence.

    It usually means you overpaid and over aspired.


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    #2825
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,556 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    Smouse156 wrote: »
    Is a small tight apartment in Wicklow is someone’s “dream home” then that’s very sad! The Estate Agents have truly conned them.

    We could start calling all houses Mansions/Villas as well as “dream homes” but one has to feel words are starting to be mis-used!

    I’m looking to buy myself next year and have yet to see a single house in Dublin I would consider “value for money” or a “dream home” in the sub-million bracket! Mostly vastly overpriced due to the Brickie overpaying for the land or vested interests saying “not in my back yard!”.

    RIP-OFF republic is likely to be here for a long time to come!

    Outside Dublin, there are houses that could be considered reasonable value for money

    I think everyone, including you, knows that "dream home" just means as good a property as you are ever likely to be able to buy with as few compromises as possible for what you want.

    There's no point pretending like you don't know this, or being deliberately obtuse, so you can throw out a few vacuous soundbites.


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    #2826
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,556 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    Pelezico wrote: »
    The dream home is a modern co structure born of envy, aspiration and snobbery.

    Itbwentboutbof fashion for a while but came back with a vengence.

    It usually means you overpaid and over aspired.

    This doesn't even begin to make sense on any level.

    To clarify, you think people are sad for having "dream homes" of modest council houses in Dublin. But then apparently, dream homes are a signal of "over aspiration" and "snobbery".

    Which is it? :confused:

    A "modern co structure", I think you're going to have to translate that for those of us who don't speak this strange language.


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    #2827
    Smouse156
    Registered Users Posts: 529 ✭✭✭Smouse156


    awec wrote: »
    I think everyone, including you, knows that "dream home" just means as good a property as you are ever likely to be able to buy with as few compromises as possible for what you want.

    There's no point pretending like you don't know this, or being deliberately obtuse, so you can throw out a few vacuous soundbites.

    There’s no sound bites! I personally will never afford my “dream home”.

    The reason I’m against it is I just hate seeing people use EA words like “dream home” and “leafy” rather than what they mean such as “home for life” and “not in a ghetto”. It makes you feel people are just being conned by EAs into overpaying. That’s my only point!


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    #2828
    brisan
    Registered Users Posts: 2,242 ✭✭✭brisan


    awec wrote: »
    This doesn't even begin to make sense on any level.

    To clarify, you think people are sad for having "dream homes" of modest council houses in Dublin. But then apparently, dream homes are a signal of "over aspiration" and "snobbery".

    Which is it? :confused:

    A "modern co structure", I think you're going to have to translate that for those of us who don't speak this strange language.

    Exactly
    To a couple on modest wages a turnkey property in the area they both grew up in ,with friends family and work close by might be their dream home
    It may be in Dalkey or Darndale


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    #2829
    MacronvFrugals
    Registered Users Posts: 1,017 ✭✭✭MacronvFrugals


    A dream home for me dosent really involve the place, i'll be buying in a rough area but it wouldnt bother me at all, lowish mortgage allowing me freedom to travel is important so once the home is nice inside and has a garden maybe even an extension is what i consider a dream home certainly not overpaying for a leafy suburb and being smothered with debt, little stress because of less debt is worth more to me than saying i live in D4.

    My sister would be the opposite she wants the post code and accepts the bigger debt along with the stresses that entails but thats her dream home, two people and widely different ideas of a dream home.


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    #2830
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,556 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    Smouse156 wrote: »
    There’s no sound bites! I personally will never afford my “dream home”.

    The reason I’m against it is I just hate seeing people use EA words like “dream home” and “leafy” rather than what they mean such as “home for life” and “not in a ghetto”. It makes you feel people are just being conned by EAs into overpaying. That’s my only point!

    I don’t like the term much either but I know when people use it they don’t literally mean the home that they’d buy if they won the lotto.

    Modest families can have modest dreams.


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    #2831
    JJJackal
    Registered Users Posts: 1,016 ✭✭✭JJJackal


    Smouse156 wrote: »
    There’s no sound bites! I personally will never afford my “dream home”.

    The reason I’m against it is I just hate seeing people use EA words like “dream home” and “leafy” rather than what they mean such as “home for life” and “not in a ghetto”. It makes you feel people are just being conned by EAs into overpaying. That’s my only point!

    People typically pay the market value of the property at that time - just because that was 200,000 in 2014 and 400,000 today does not mean the buyer in 2014 got a deal and the one in 2014 got robbed!


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    #2832
    Markitron
    Registered Users Posts: 3,157 ✭✭✭Markitron


    Pelezico wrote: »
    The dream home is a modern co structure born of envy, aspiration and snobbery.

    You are stating an opinion as a fact


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    #2833
    dor843088
    Registered Users Posts: 1,171 ✭✭✭dor843088


    Markitron wrote: »
    You are stating an opinion as a fact

    Do you want every post on boards.ie to be preceded by "my opinion is as follows " ?


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    #2834
    Markitron
    Registered Users Posts: 3,157 ✭✭✭Markitron


    dor843088 wrote: »
    Do you want every post on boards.ie to be preceded by "my opinion is as follows " ?

    When the subsequent opinion is as dismissive and ignorant as that one, it probably couldn't hurt.


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    #2835
    Pelezico
    Registered Users Posts: 681 ✭✭✭Pelezico


    Markitron wrote: »
    When the subsequent opinion is as dismissive and ignorant as that one, it probably couldn't hurt.

    I guess you disagree with me which is fine. Personally, I dont come here for an echo chamber.

    If posters here are dismissive of my opinions that is ok by me.


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    #2836
    coolshannagh28
    Registered Users Posts: 1,476 ✭✭✭coolshannagh28


    Pelezico wrote: »
    I guess you disagree with me which is fine. Personally, I dont come here for an echo chamber.

    If posters here are dismissive of my opinions that is ok by me.

    It would be interesting to have a poll on the bull/bear debate , I am bearish I think that covid is going to drag on and if the rumoured closures and layoffs happen then there will be contagion into all sectors , property must be vulnerable and I am a long term investor.


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    #2837
    cnocbui
    Registered Users Posts: 19,955 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    The US just had the highest monthly increase in existing home sales since recods began in 1968. So far this years, existing home sales are up 8.7% on last year.
    https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/08/21/existing-home-sales-up-8-point-7-percent-versus-a-year-ago.html

    I'm bullish.


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    #2838
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    PropQueries wrote: »
    FYI if interested. Article in today's Irish Times that the "number of homes available to buy in August falls to lowest level in 14 years".

    What I found interesting was the line "This was the lowest August total recorded since 2006.".

    Make what you will of that statement.

    Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/number-of-homes-available-to-buy-in-august-falls-to-lowest-level-in-14-years-1.4335625

    Just a follow up to this article.

    The article states that: "However, arguably the greater puzzle is the resilience of Dublin rents. Rents in the capital fell by 2.5 per cent in April, from their March level, but instead of falling further in the months since have actually come back slightly and are now just 2.1 per cent below their March level."

    But it may also have something to do with the rent pressure zones as the article states “If you lower your rent now, the rent you set in one, three and 10 years will reflect the cut you make today” and this may be acting as a disincentive for landlords to reduce rents.

    However, there may be a few other reasons I can think of:

    1. The state may be actively soaking up many of the rental units to meet their social housing numbers. But given that there are only about 400 homeless families in Dublin (much more than anyone would like but not so much that it couldn’t be easily resolved), so I’m not sure that could have much of an impact.

    2. Given the amount of AirBnB and ex-student rentals that should be re-entering the market, maybe these will enter the market in significant numbers in the next 6 weeks or so to drive down rents. I can’t imagine landlords leaving houses and apartments empty for the next 12 months, at a minimum, in the hope of a rebound that may not happen.

    3. Another is that I would assume that the majority of 12 month leases are signed in September/ October. As these leases expire and are not renewed (WFH cohort), there may be an influx of rentals re-entering the market in the next two months from this source. These may be currently empty, but not available as the existing tenants may still be paying for their remaining months.

    4. Maybe the thousands of units the investment funds soaked up in the last 8 years are being held back as they decide what their game plan is going forward. Given that they probably purchased them for a fraction of today’s asking prices, I’d assume they may decide to offload them in bulk at significant discounts to current asking prices and still walk away with a hefty capital gain?

    Maybe it is a genuine supply issue, but I'm suspect of that reason as apartment rents appear to be definitely on a downward trend from what I can glean from looking through daft recently. Anyone got other ideas?

    Full disclosure. I do have an agenda (of sorts). If too many younger workers buy or rent at the wrong time, it's my pension and house that is going to bear the burden of higher taxes to pay for the fallout as the younger generation have very few assets to tax. I'm primarily interested in figuring out if this supply/demand mismatch issue is real or not. I'm currently on the not side, but open to being persuaded otherwise.


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    #2839
    Villa05
    Registered Users Posts: 4,550 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Pelezico wrote:
    Everybody on this board including the two active mods has a vested interest in the market. Let's not be under any illusion about that.

    I would agree to an extent that everyone has their own individual vested interest.

    Unfortunately this is a country whose running has been highly influenced by powerful wealthy vested interests resulting in decisions that have come at great cost to the general population.

    Nowhere is this more visible than the property market. Even the investigation of these issues has come at great cost to the general population, the planning tribunal for instance


    Given this is forum of many different interests. What do you think is in the collective interest?

    Given that we are the most underdeveloped nation in the EU and yet one of the wealthiest nations on the planet.
    Providing affordable housing to the working populace at a reasonable distance to there place of work should be one of the easiest problems to solve

    Think of the benefits that would provide to the nation were it to be achieved.
    Increased Competitiveness
    Work life balance
    Traffic easing
    Much more valuable family time
    Environmental benefits
    Increased disposable income
    Increased economic activity
    Increased job creation
    Country as a whole has a greater quality of life

    Knowing that these benefits would accrue from affordable housing. The forces preventing it from happening must be incredibly wealthy and powerful.

    I can guarantee that there is no poster on these boards that has not been negatively impacted by these decisions and inactions

    Pursuing a vested interest policy will always result in the individual being the looser to the powerful and wealthy and be on the hook for the bill if it goes wrong for the wealthy and powerful


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    #2840
    mcsean2163
    Registered Users Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭mcsean2163


    PropQueries wrote: »
    Just a follow up to this article.

    The article states that: "However, arguably the greater puzzle is the resilience of Dublin rents. Rents in the capital fell by 2.5 per cent in April, from their March level, but instead of falling further in the months since have actually come back slightly and are now just 2.1 per cent below their March level."

    But it may also have something to do with the rent pressure zones as the article states “If you lower your rent now, the rent you set in one, three and 10 years will reflect the cut you make today” and this may be acting as a disincentive for landlords to reduce rents.

    However, there may be a few other reasons I can think of:

    1. The state may be actively soaking up many of the rental units to meet their social housing numbers. But given that there are only about 400 homeless families in Dublin (much more than anyone would like but not so much that it couldn’t be easily resolved), so I’m not sure that could have much of an impact.

    2. Given the amount of AirBnB and ex-student rentals that should be re-entering the market, maybe these will enter the market in significant numbers in the next 6 weeks or so to drive down rents. I can’t imagine landlords leaving houses and apartments empty for the next 12 months, at a minimum, in the hope of a rebound that may not happen.

    3. Another is that I would assume that the majority of 12 month leases are signed in September/ October. As these leases expire and are not renewed (WFH cohort), there may be an influx of rentals re-entering the market in the next two months from this source. These may be currently empty, but not available as the existing tenants may still be paying for their remaining months.

    4. Maybe the thousands of units the investment funds soaked up in the last 8 years are being held back as they decide what their game plan is going forward. Given that they probably purchased them for a fraction of today’s asking prices, I’d assume they may decide to offload them in bulk at significant discounts to current asking prices and still walk away with a hefty capital gain?

    Maybe it is a genuine supply issue, but I'm suspect of that reason as apartment rents appear to be definitely on a downward trend from what I can glean from looking through daft recently. Anyone got other ideas?

    Full disclosure. I do have an agenda (of sorts). If too many younger workers buy or rent at the wrong time, it's my pension and house that is going to bear the burden of higher taxes to pay for the fallout as the younger generation have very few assets to tax. I'm primarily interested in figuring out if this supply/demand mismatch issue is real or not. I'm currently on the not side, but open to being persuaded otherwise.

    Great points. The rent pressure zones are here:

    https://sebastianrushworth.com/2020/08/04/how-bad-is-covid-really-a-swedish-doctors-perspective/

    We got badly stung as were renting to neighbors in a special deal for €1,300 when the zones were laid out. Our house before covid19 would rent for €2,500.

    I expect a lot of landlords would be very reluctant to drop rent but in fairness a 97% increase in available rentals in Dublin might change their mind!

    Anecdotally, I've noticed a lot of completed but empty apartment blocks. They may be holding out too?

    e.g.

    https://touch.daft.ie/for-rent/clancy-quay-by-kennedy-wilson-south-circular-road-dublin-8-co-dublin/2511232


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    #2841
    cubatahavana
    Registered Users Posts: 990 ✭✭✭cubatahavana


    Report in how different sectors have been affected by COVID, including construction

    https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0821/1160617-business-reports/

    These are the last paragraphs regarding construction:

    Housing completions are expected to fall to just 13,800 with dwellings investment forecasted to fall by 35% and non-residential construction activity declining by 36%.

    However, the report also concludes that the construction sector is well positioned to return to high levels of activity relatively quickly given underlying demand, the implementation of the NDP and the nature of the sector.


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    #2842
    walterral2017
    Registered Users Posts: 3 ✭walterral2017


    Thierry12 wrote: »
    That site is an eye opener



    Already at 485k

    My garage is bigger and that only cost me 20k :pac:

    That property 47 Gulistan Cottages in Rathmines has hit its guide of €525 - reports of the death of the property market are greatly exaggerated it would seem?


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    #2843
    sanfranbest
    Registered Users Posts: 49 ✭sanfranbest


    walterral2017 wrote: »
    That property 47 Gulistan Cottages in Rathmines has hit its guide of €525 - reports of the death of the property market are greatly exaggerated it would seem?

    That shoe box cottage has been on the market for ages, it showed a bid of 485k for weeks, now suddenly they have a bid for 525k,
    plus they still have a viewing next Saturday 29th Aug,,,, are they looking for more than 525k,,,,,,,,,

    Who in their right mind would pay over a half a million for this cottage is beyond my comprehension,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

    https://www.auctioneera.ie/property/47-gulistan-cottages-rathmines-dublin-d06-e6c9

    Looking forward to seeing the actual selling price on the PPR


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    #2844
    Sarn
    Registered Users Posts: 3,063 ✭✭✭Sarn


    If the sale goes ahead it will be for more than they paid back in 2017 (€520k).


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    #2845
    JamesMason
    Registered Users Posts: 152 ✭✭JamesMason


    mcsean2163 wrote: »
    Great points. The rent pressure zones are here:

    https://sebastianrushworth.com/2020/08/04/how-bad-is-covid-really-a-swedish-doctors-perspective/

    We got badly stung as were renting to neighbors in a special deal for €1,300 when the zones were laid out. Our house before covid19 would rent for €2,500.

    I expect a lot of landlords would be very reluctant to drop rent but in fairness a 97% increase in available rentals in Dublin might change their mind!

    Anecdotally, I've noticed a lot of completed but empty apartment blocks. They may be holding out too?
    Reality bites


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    #2846
    The_Conductor
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 32,280 Mod ✭✭✭✭The_Conductor


    Sarn wrote: »
    If the sale goes ahead it will be for more than they paid back in 2017 (€520k).

    It has been thoroughly modernised since then in all fairness. It may be compact- but it is well laid out, and would thoroughly suit a retired couple- smack bang in the middle of Rathmines, low maintenance garden that you can drive into from the rear, nice new kitchen/bathroom/floors/wiring etc

    If you accept that you're paying for the location more than anything else- its actually not awful value- though it would seem to be a bit speculative in the current market.


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    #2847
    Sarn
    Registered Users Posts: 3,063 ✭✭✭Sarn


    It was in the same condition back in 2017, I remember checking it out at the time.

    It is a great location between Ranelagh and Rathmines and would be ideal for a couple.


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    #2848
    JamesMason
    Registered Users Posts: 152 ✭✭JamesMason


    Cyrus wrote: »
    really?id say they are doing pretty well.
    Yeah...right. Air BnB are screwed


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    #2849
    Cyrus
    Registered Users Posts: 19,908 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    JamesMason wrote: »
    Yeah...right. Air BnB are screwed

    Try get yourself a summer house for 2021 see what people are charging


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    #2850
    Pelezico
    Registered Users Posts: 681 ✭✭✭Pelezico


    Cyrus wrote: »
    Try get yourself a summer house for 2021 see what people are charging

    Why would anyone holiday in Ireland?

    No sun, overpriced food, accommodation and eating out is extortionate.

    Give me Spain ...even with covid.


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    #2851
    JamesMason
    Registered Users Posts: 152 ✭✭JamesMason


    Cyrus wrote: »
    Try get yourself a summer house for 2021 see what people are charging
    What about the gang of youths looking for cheap kicks in Dublin city centre spring/summer 2021? All booked up already? Not a chance


This discussion has been closed.
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