Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

shatners bassoon

Can people stop pedalling this nonsense about it taking 10-15 years to repossess a property? It happens but it's by no means the norm. The system is dysfunctional and rates are comparatively low but repossessions happen.

A reluctance to take someone's family home off them is not an inherently bad thing either. Sit through a County Registrar's repossession list and tell me how many borrowers you think are getting off lightly.

hometruths

shatners bassoon wrote: »

Can people stop pedalling this nonsense about it taking 10-15 years to repossess a property? It happens but it's by no means the norm. The system is dysfunctional and rates are comparatively low but repossessions happen.

A reluctance to take someone's family home off them is not an inherently bad thing either. Sit through a County Registrar's repossession list and tell me how many borrowers you think are getting off lightly.

If it is not 10-15 years, what is the norm?

PropQueries

When the media start reporting on the September figures in the Property Price Index, what month would people think it most accurately reflects when the majority of homes included in the data actually went sale agreed?

awec

PropQueries wrote: »

When the media start reporting on the September figures in the Property Price Index, what month would people think it most accurately reflects when the majority of homes included in the data actually went sale agreed?

It's nothing to do with sale agreed.

The RPI uses stamp duty returns, so it's when the sale is completed and ownership formally transferred. So for September, it is likely based off complete data up to ~May/June, and incomplete data for July/August. So if there were a load of sales at low prices in July/August, they may not be accurately reflected yet in September's RPI.

PropQueries

awec wrote: »

It's nothing to do with sale agreed.

The RPI uses stamp duty returns, so it's when the sale is completed and ownership formally transferred. So for September, it is likely based off complete data up to ~May/June, and incomplete data for July/August. So if there were a load of sales at low prices in July/August, they may not be accurately reflected yet in September's RPI.

Good point. It's just I read recently that some estate agents in rural Ireland were complaining that it takes up to 8 months to go from sales agreed to closing due to inefficiencies in the system.

I suppose my question related to if someone went sale agreed on a house e.g. last February, they may have agreed to pay a price for that house based on information they gleaned from looking at prices for similar homes being listed in the couple of months up to the date they went sale agreed.

Could this mean the property price register reflects home buyers price expectations several months ago and is no longer a true reflection of the market, up or down?

Marius34

PropQueries wrote: »

When the media start reporting on the September figures in the Property Price Index, what month would people think it most accurately reflects when the majority of homes included in the data actually went sale agreed?

From what I know:
1-2 month for auctions (cash ones).
2-3 months for simple regular sales.
4-6 for more complex sales.
over 6 month for problematic or delayed, or some new builds etc.

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

Could this mean the property price register reflects home buyers price expectations several months ago and is no longer a true reflection of the market, up or down?

the PPR reflects what someone paid for a house and is reported when that sale closed / stamp duty return is completed. thats it. it is a lagging indicator but its factual at least unlike almost everything else which is opinion and conjecture.

awec

PropQueries wrote: »

Good point. It's just I read recently that some estate agents in rural Ireland were complaining that it takes up to 8 months to go from sales agreed to closing due to inefficiencies in the system.

I suppose my question related to if someone went sale agreed on a house e.g. last February, they may have agreed to pay a price for that house based on information they gleaned from looking at prices for similar homes being listed in the couple of months up to the date they went sale agreed.

Could this mean the property price register reflects home buyers price expectations several months ago and is no longer a true reflection of the market, up or down?

It's a true representation of the market in that it's based off what people are actually paying for houses.

8 weeks is more the norm, 8 months is extreme. Most people closing on second hand homes right now probably went sale agreed post-lockdown.

New builds can take a lot longer, it can be 12+ months between signing contracts and getting keys.

Property prices move slowly, the RPI reflects this. Whatever the September RPI is, I'd say it's an accurate representation of the state of the market up to around June-ish.

dor843088

SteelyDanJalapeno wrote: »

Felt the need to come back to this post, we just got offered accepted at asking price for our dream home, been looking for 2 years.
We went in 10% under, and we were outbid. Went back and forth twice and we eventually offered asking.

Had we have taken the advice above, we would have lost it in the hope of catching out an EA? Not a risk I was willing to take for a few k.

You say you bid 10 % under and also it was a " dream home" I imagine the house was worth 500k ? Maybe a lot more for this dream home ? so the EA squeezed another 50k at least out of you . I say you got fleeced . But that's just my opinion. You payed full asking heading into a giant recession where dream homes become crushing debt. I hope it works out for you.

brisan

dor843088 wrote: »

You say you bid 10 % under and also it was a " dream home" I imagine the house was worth 500k ? Maybe a lot more for this dream home ? so the EA squeezed another 50k at least out of you . I say you got fleeced . But that's just my opinion. You payed full asking heading into a giant recession where dream homes become crushing debt. I hope it works out for you.

If its a dream home and they can comfortably afford the mortgage and have no intention of selling in the next 10 years I cannot see the problem

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

the PPR reflects what someone paid for a house and is reported when that sale closed / stamp duty return is completed. thats it. it is a lagging indicator but its factual at least unlike almost everything else which is opinion and conjecture.

Good point on the lagging indicator and it's the best we have.

So I guess it's a lot different to e.g. a share price, which if I bought today reflects all market information about that stock right up to today.

If I agree to buy a house today at a price based on the information I see in the property price register, I'm buying that house based on all the market information about the housing market up to e.g. April.

Hubertj

brisan wrote: »

If its a dream home and they can comfortably afford the mortgage and have no intention of selling in the next 10 years I cannot see the problem

Agreed, some people are just miserable and need to try and bring others down with them.

dor843088

brisan wrote: »

If its a dream home and they can comfortably afford the mortgage and have no intention of selling in the next 10 years I cannot see the problem

At least you are honest.

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

Good point on the lagging indicator and it's the best we have.

So I guess it's a lot different to e.g. a share price, which if I bought today reflects all market information about that stock right up to today.

If I agree to buy a house today at a price based on the information I see in the property price register, I'm buying that house based on all the market information about the housing market up to e.g. April.

i suppose you can look at it that way, but the PPR is a representation of the overall market, within that there are sub markets, even roads in areas that have different drivers. really it depends on the house, your needs and what you can afford.

awec

PropQueries wrote: »

Good point on the lagging indicator and it's the best we have.

So I guess it's a lot different to e.g. a share price, which if I bought today reflects all market information about that stock right up to today.

If I agree to buy a house today at a price based on the information I see in the property price register, I'm buying that house based on all the market information about the housing market up to e.g. April.

It's a lot different to shares because buying property is a totally different process that doesn't compare. Shares are offered at a price, you buy or you don't.

The price you pay for a property is how much the house is worth to you personally, against what anyone else is willing to pay for it. Multiple buyers bidding for the same item. People don't buy houses based on what's in the PPR, it's not a factor.

dor843088

brisan wrote: »

If its a dream home and they can comfortably afford the mortgage and have no intention of selling in the next 10 years I cannot see the problem

People dont dream about homes they can easily afford

Markitron

dor843088 wrote: »

People dont dream about homes they can easily afford

I'm not a fan of that particular phrase, but it is plain to see that the interpretation of it varies from person to person. You can't apply yours to everyone else.

Personally speaking, my 'dream home' is one that doesn't contain my mother.

PropQueries

awec wrote: »

It's a lot different to shares because buying property is a totally different process that doesn't compare. Shares are offered at a price, you buy or you don't.

The price you pay for a property is how much the house is worth to you personally, against what anyone else is willing to pay for it. Multiple buyers bidding for the same item. People don't buy houses based on what's in the PPR, it's not a factor.

That's true. But I would assume, even if the buyer didn't look at the property price register, a relative might, just to provide guidance. A house is very big purchase so I would assume some thought goes into checking if what they're paying is reflective of the prices paid for similar properties in the area.

But I get what Cyrus said in that every house, even on the same street is different and there are many other factors outside the property price register to take account for. But, I guess, at least it provides some kind of guidance for a ballpark fair value figure.

brisan

dor843088 wrote: »

At least you are honest.

Lets say the couple in question wait 18 months and prices drop by 15%.
The dream home they want may not be available, sellers might take desirable property off the market till prices go back up.
So now the couple have 2 choices
Wait till prices go up and the dream home comes back to market,
Buy a less desirable house and live in it unhappy that they let their dream home slip away.
I am being honest because I see what you consider to be a problem ,but to me its not a problem
I bought my first house a 3 bed semi in 1982.
We moved to a 4 bed detached.
Then to a 3 bed corner house in an area we wanted
Last year we moved to our perfect home a dormer bungalow in an area we had long aspired to.
We waited a few years for the right property to come along , as properties in this area do not come on the open market very often
We probably overpaid but as we were cash buyers it meant nothing to us .
If it goes into negative price the only ones it will affect is our kids when we both die.
We have bought 4 houses as family homes, 3 investment properties which we eventually sold and along with my brothers we have bought ,refurbished and sold at least 20 houses ,so I have a fair idea how the property market works,
The things you look for in a family home or a dream home are totally different to an investment property and the price you are willing to pay are different.
One set is ruled by both your head and your heart , the other set totally ruled by your head

dor843088

brisan wrote: »

Lets say the couple in question wait 18 months and prices drop by 15%.
The dream home they want may not be available, sellers might take desirable property off the market till prices go back up.
So now the couple have 2 choices
Wait till prices go up and the dream home comes back to market,
Buy a less desirable house and live in it unhappy that they let their dream home slip away.
I am being honest because I see what you consider to be a problem ,but to me its not a problem
I bought my first house a 3 bed semi in 1982.
We moved to a 4 bed detached.
Then to a 3 bed corner house in an area we wanted
Last year we moved to our perfect home a dormer bungalow in an area we had long aspired to.
We waited a few years for the right property to come along , as properties in this area do not come on the open market very often
We probably overpaid but as we were cash buyers it meant nothing to us .
If it goes into negative price the only ones it will affect is our kids when we both die.
We have bought 4 houses as family homes, 3 investment properties which we eventually sold and along with my brothers we have bought ,refurbished and sold at least 20 houses ,so I have a fair idea how the property market works,
The things you look for in a family home or a dream home are totally different to an investment property and the price you are willing to pay are different.
One set is ruled by both your head and your heart , the other set totally ruled by your head

That is an enormous list of assumptions. And you say you're a property investor ?

cnocbui

dor843088 wrote: »

People dont dream about homes they can easily afford

I tend to dream big, so my dream house/s are all well beyond my financial reach.

PropQueries

FYI if interested. Article in today's Irish Times that the "number of homes available to buy in August falls to lowest level in 14 years".

What I found interesting was the line "This was the lowest August total recorded since 2006.".

Make what you will of that statement.

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/number-of-homes-available-to-buy-in-august-falls-to-lowest-level-in-14-years-1.4335625

Bass Reeves

dor843088 wrote: »

That is an enormous list of assumptions. And you say you're a property investor ?

How many houses have you bought and sold.

Smouse156

dor843088 wrote: »

You say you bid 10 % under and also it was a " dream home" I imagine the house was worth 500k ? Maybe a lot more for this dream home ? so the EA squeezed another 50k at least out of you . I say you got fleeced . But that's just my opinion. You payed full asking heading into a giant recession where dream homes become crushing debt. I hope it works out for you.

Can people please stop using “Dream home” for average/****e Dublin shoeboxes. The quality of housing stock is piss poor for the current prices. It’s just another misused property porn word like “leafy” designed by estate agents to make people feel better off paying 500k for overpriced ex-council houses.

A dream home to me is one that is huge with a swimming pool and tennis court. A home if you won the lotto! Not some ****e 3-bed semi

brisan

dor843088 wrote: »

That is an enormous list of assumptions. And you say you're a property investor ?

What assumptions
The couple bought the house they really wanted at a mortgage they could afford.
If they wait that opportunity may not be there
As i said the thought process you use to buy an investment property is totally different to a family home.
The 3 properties we bought as investments are properties we would never have bought as family homes,
However they were cheap,near a DART station and easily rent able
Also the family homes we bought would not have made sense as investment properties.
Everybody's situation and aspirations are different so you can only do what is right for you and yours at that point in time

Cyrus

Smouse156 wrote: »

Can people please stop using “Dream home” for average/****e Dublin shoeboxes. The quality of housing stock is piss poor for the current prices. It’s just another misused property porn word like “leafy” designed by estate agents to make people feel better off paying 500k for overpriced ex-council houses.

A dream home to me is one that is huge with a swimming pool and tennis court. A home if you won the lotto! Not some ****e 3-bed semi

everyones dreams are different.

you could pay a couple of million for a house in killiney or dalkey with a great sea view, not massive and most likely no swimming pool or tennis court, to a lot of people thats still a dream home.

or you could buy an apartment in grey stones with similar views, 5/600k, could be someones dream home.

Bass Reeves

dor843088 wrote: »

People dont dream about homes they can easily afford

Very few people buy houses they can easily afford in Dublin. Yes outside of the big cities people buy houses they can easily afford but in any big city you will push the boat out to get a house especially if you have a family that you can get access to decent schools and areas that have the least social problems.

During the noughties people had this fad of getting on the property ladder. At present most people seem to want to buy a house that will not require them to trade up again. But it a bit if a jump from a starter home to a decent family home.

But the economics of going for that jump from a starter home to a decent family home in a single jump are fundamentally good in the long-term. It costs in the region of 20-40k to move house in indirect costs

brisan

Cyrus wrote: »

everyones dreams are different.

you could pay a couple of million for a house in killiney or dalkey with a great sea view, not massive and most likely no swimming pool or tennis court, to a lot of people thats still a dream home.

or you could buy an apartment in grey stones with similar views, 5/600k, could be someones dream home.

exactly
A couple in their late 50s may not want a half acre garden ,but a young couple with 2 under 5s and one on the way would.

hometruths

Smouse156 wrote: »

Can people please stop using “Dream home” for average/****e Dublin shoeboxes. The quality of housing stock is piss poor for the current prices. It’s just another misused property porn word like “leafy” designed by estate agents to make people feel better off paying 500k for overpriced ex-council houses.

A dream home to me is one that is huge with a swimming pool and tennis court. A home if you won the lotto! Not some ****e 3-bed semi

Completely agree about rubbish semis as dream homes, but in fairness to the poster who kicked this off, he gave more detail in the buying/selling thread:

SteelyDanJalapeno wrote: »

Just gone sale agreed at asking price for a 190sm/m detached dormer with sea views with a 30 minute commute to work
Delighted

Detached with sea views sounds a cut above your average housing estate.

It's like listening to SoSueMe or some other Insta numpty with all the dream home chat :pac:
If someone wants to refer to their house as their dream home leave them off even if it doesn't have a tennis court