Covid 19 Part XXI-27,908 in ROI (1,777 deaths) 6,647 in NI (559 deaths)(22/08)Read OP

ACitizenErased · 21-08-2020 10:28PM

HSE Daily Operations Update

19 in hospital, increase of 2
3 confirmed cases today, Beaumont, Letterkenny and St. Vincent's.
6 in ICU and 3 ventilated, no change

Tallaght (+1) - 4
UHL (--) - 4
Connolly (--) - 2
Beaumont (-1) - 1
Drogheda (--) - 1
Letterkenny (+1) - 1
Mater (--) - 1
Naas (--) - 1
Mullingar (--) - 1
South Tipp (--) - 1
St. Vincent's (+1) - 1
Tullamore (--) - 1
UHK (-1) - 0

timsey tiger · 21-08-2020 10:28PM

Pulsating Star wrote: »

On a positive note re some of the world’s least resourced countries.
I was watching one of Dr John Campbell’s videos lately which focused on studies been done in Some African countries which indicated outcomes many multiples better than expected. Much better than even the lower average can explain. Medics are working hard to figure out why.
South Africa though seems to buck the trend so far and follow the European norms.
Been looking but haven’t found the relevant link as yet.

I suspect all of this is just a result of the different structures of societies. I suspect that mobility within country is a lot lower than within Europe and especially so lower for poorer older groups and what is happening is just the covid 19 pandemic on super slow motion.

PokeHerKing · 21-08-2020 10:30PM

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Id imagine the opposite.

Rather normal year on year death rates averaged out

Howd you figure that one chief?

niallo27 · 21-08-2020 10:31PM

Westernyelp wrote: »

This is an idiotic comment

Why so, these countries have much bigger problems to deal with than covid.

timsey tiger · 21-08-2020 10:32PM

niallo27 wrote: »

Why so, these countries have much bigger problems to deal with than covid.

And covid will make all of them worse.

PokeHerKing · 21-08-2020 10:33PM

niallo27 wrote: »

Why so, these countries have much bigger problems to deal with than covid.

No I reckon its more like having a hole in your roof and then it starts to piss rain.

FintanMcluskey · 21-08-2020 10:34PM

PokeHerKing wrote: »

Howd you figure that one chief?

Are you suggesting Ireland will see circa 8500 excess death's this year chief?

PokeHerKing · 21-08-2020 10:37PM

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Are you suggesting Ireland will see circa 8500 excess death's this year chief?

No but I did say 'most' countries. Going by our curre t excess deaths we've actually over counted our covid deaths by about 500.

But we certainly won't have zero excess deaths. So you'll have to explain your thinking to me like I'm a golden retriever I'm afraid.

CalamariFritti · 21-08-2020 10:41PM

PokeHerKing wrote: »

Like most countries theres not a hope in hell their figures are accurate. I'm sure like everywhere else when all is said and done their excess mortality will indicate somewhere in the region if x5 deaths.

But that would still be not enough to shut their entire country down over. Even if they could.

FintanMcluskey · 21-08-2020 10:41PM

PokeHerKing wrote: »

No but I did say 'most' countries. Going by our curre t excess deaths we've actually over counted our covid deaths by about 500.

But we certainly won't have zero excess deaths. So you'll have to explain your thinking to me like I'm a golden retriever I'm afraid.

Will we take Italys figure and presume they will have 175k excess deaths.

road_high · 21-08-2020 10:43PM

Pulsating Star wrote: »

On a positive note re some of the world’s least resourced countries.
I was watching one of Dr John Campbell’s videos lately which focused on studies been done in Some African countries which indicated outcomes many multiples better than expected. Much better than even the lower average age can explain. Medics are working hard to figure out why.
South Africa though seems to buck the trend so far and follow the European norms.
Been looking but haven’t found the relevant link as yet.

Maybe they have much stronger immune systems than molly coddled westerners?
Think of all the dangers and risks people in developing countries are exposed to daily. Covid 19 is likely the least of their and their bodies worries...

BorneTobyWilde · 21-08-2020 10:46PM

It's really really funny how people ''act'' surprised what Fianna Fáil get up to when in power. They must laugh like hyena's behind closed door at how fscking stupid the Irish people are for electing them over and over and over. While in public acting like they care.

PokeHerKing · 21-08-2020 10:49PM

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Will we take Italys figure and presume they will have 175k excess deaths.

No similar to Spain I think they're around x2 excess deaths. I would say the less developed the country the higher that multiple will be. So x5 for India is possibly conservative.

But I'm much more interested in hearing your zero excess deaths theory rather than arguing the semantics of my excess deaths theory.

But remember, golden retriever.

Ce he sin · 21-08-2020 10:51PM

PokeHerKing wrote: »

No but I did say 'most' countries. Going by our curre t excess deaths we've actually over counted our covid deaths by about 500.

But we certainly won't have zero excess deaths. So you'll have to explain your thinking to me like I'm a golden retriever I'm afraid.

There's a theory, strongly held by some, that people who die of Covid were going to die this year anyway and so deaths for the year as a whole will be no higher than usual.
This is not a theory for which any evidence has yet been produced.

FintanMcluskey · 21-08-2020 10:53PM

PokeHerKing wrote: »

No similar to Spain I think they're around x2 excess deaths. I would say the less developed the country the higher that multiple will be. So x5 for India is possibly conservative.

But I'm much more interested in hearing your zero excess deaths theory rather than arguing the semantics of my excess deaths theory.

But remember, golden retriever.

Ok so now its only India not most countries.

Are we debunking your 5x theory?

PokeHerKing · 21-08-2020 11:00PM

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Ok so now its only India not most countries.

Are we debunking your 5x theory?

OK ok, you're quite the salesman. Let's meet in the middle and say the world will be x2.5 excess deaths by EOY.

Now cmon, let's hear your zero excess deaths theory?

FintanMcluskey · 21-08-2020 11:09PM

PokeHerKing wrote: »

OK ok, you're quite the salesman. Let's meet in the middle and say the world will be x2.5 excess deaths by EOY.

Now cmon, let's hear your zero excess deaths theory?

Ok. We will go with 3% excess deaths.

Ireland has about 3% excess death's.

The official Covid death stats are at about 2% of the total worldwide death toll.

3% isn't much of a deviation

Non solum non ambulabit · 21-08-2020 11:19PM

timsey tiger wrote: »

And covid will make all of them worse.

Most of these countries have really young populations so Covid is not impacting them as much e.g. 40% of the Afghan population is under 15. Access to clean water is a much bigger issue killing millions every year with Diarrhoeal diseases including half a million under 5s

It's western countries that have very large populations over 70 that are really been impacted i.e. 1st world

Non solum non ambulabit · 21-08-2020 11:24PM

PokeHerKing wrote: »

No but I did say 'most' countries. Going by our curre t excess deaths we've actually over counted our covid deaths by about 500.

But we certainly won't have zero excess deaths. So you'll have to explain your thinking to me like I'm a golden retriever I'm afraid.

Unknown yet but the last 2 months have seen less deaths in Ireland than the average.

https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps

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FintanMcluskey · 21-08-2020 11:26PM

Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »

It's western countries that have very large populations over 70 that are really been impacted i.e. 1st world

Word of warning, dont say that in here, some take offense

PokeHerKing · 21-08-2020 11:35PM

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Ok. We will go with 3% excess deaths.

Ireland has about 3% excess death's.

The official Covid death stats are at about 2% of the total worldwide death toll.

3% isn't much of a deviation

OK so we've debunked your zero excess deaths quick enough. Glad to get you on board.

So Mexico has about 30% excess deaths. So I'm unsure where that leaves us Fintan?

FintanMcluskey · 21-08-2020 11:44PM

PokeHerKing wrote: »

OK so we've debunked your zero excess deaths quick enough. Glad to get you on board.

So Mexico has about 30% excess deaths. So I'm unsure where that leaves us Fintan?

We can't debunk the theory until the year end.

Vulnerable people died quickly, rising the death rate early on.

The subsequent months had a lower than normal death rate, in Ireland anyway.

The excess deaths can be calculated at the year end.

No winners medals are handed out at half time

ACitizenErased · 21-08-2020 11:44PM

Brazil's infection levels are stable/declining according to the WHO. Good news.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-coronavirus-health-brazil-idUSKBN25H2QM?taid=5f404d44666bd20001334a7f&utm_campaign=trueAnthem%3A+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

stephenjmcd · 21-08-2020 11:44PM

https://twitter.com/RobOHanrahan/status/1296940553691693057?s=19

Ronan|Raven · 21-08-2020 11:48PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

https://twitter.com/RobOHanrahan/status/1296940553691693057?s=19

It gets better and better!

FintanMcluskey · 21-08-2020 11:49PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

https://twitter.com/RobOHanrahan/status/1296940553691693057?s=19

The writer's of father Ted need to get to work on a series about this.

Its wrote itself though

PokeHerKing · 21-08-2020 11:51PM

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

We can't debunk the theory until the year end.

Vulnerable people died quickly, rising the death rate early on.

The subsequent months had a lower than normal death rate, in Ireland anyway.

The excess deaths can be calculated at the year end.

No winners medals are handed out at half time

You debunked your own theory chief. You went from zero excess deaths to 3% all on your own.

Gerry Hatrick · 21-08-2020 11:53PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

https://twitter.com/RobOHanrahan/status/1296940553691693057?s=19

Lol. These guys. Pure crooks.

FintanMcluskey · 21-08-2020 11:53PM

PokeHerKing wrote: »

You debunked your own theory chief. You went from zero excess deaths to 3% all on your own.

Ok well leave it at that. Ill let you win

Assetbacked · 21-08-2020 11:55PM

Wanderer78 wrote: »

So our governments are conspiring against us, yea? Noting once again, this is not a flu, this is far more serious than a flu!

"Far more serious", no it isn't. It is the flu without a vaccine for the vulnerable. The death rates in the under 70s age group are fairly low and conservatively estimated but in Ireland they are exceptionally conservative given the strict criteria around testing back in March. The data, to be clear, confirms generally that this is an old person's virus, ie over 65/70. By focusing on restricting all of society it means the net of protection is spread too thin when the focus should be shifted towards this age category.

For example, allowing people to go about their lives pretty much as normal but with strong education campaigns on protecting the elderly eg blanket requirements for elderly hours in shops, visible ads on how to interact with an elderly person to reduce a risk to them, implementing processes to ensure cases of covid for elderly persons are quickly identified so they can be treated and of course general health advice (ie wholefoods, plant based diet, no alcohol, sleep enough, lots of water, not overweight and exercise). As well, to use a mix of humour and satire as to what was said to young people getting fed up at the beginning of lockdown, maybe a campaign to guilt people into getting their granny a Netflix subscription so they can sit at home and wait it out.

Covid 19 Part XXI-27,908 in ROI (1,777 deaths) 6,647 in NI (559 deaths)(22/08)Read OP

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