Covid 19 Part XXI-27,908 in ROI (1,777 deaths) 6,647 in NI (559 deaths)(22/08)Read OP

MickeyLeari · 21-08-2020 04:06PM

Time to lock down again and forget any notion of opening up the schools. The system has shown it cannot cope so what is the point of trying to open up and put people in danger. My only request is that there should also be a curfew on the feral youth who are causing hassle for many people - bring in the army if needed.

ACitizenErased · 21-08-2020 04:07PM

MickeyLeari wrote: »

Time to lock down again and forget any notion of opening up the schools. The system has shown it cannot cope so what is the point of trying to open up and put people in danger. My only request is that there should also be a curfew on the feral youth who are causing hassle for many people - bring in the army if needed.

Paddy is that you?

MickeyLeari · 21-08-2020 04:12PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Paddy is that you?

Not at all. Had my Road to Damascus moment.

froog · 21-08-2020 04:12PM

anyway my positive post for the day:

both global cases and deaths are trending downwards just about.

and in ireland, it doesn't appear like we are going completely out of control like the first time around, i would tentatively suggest we may have plateaued at this 50-200 cases a day level and hopefully that will come down.

ACitizenErased · 21-08-2020 04:12PM

MickeyLeari wrote: »

Not at all. Had my Road to Damascus moment.

The fact you think "feral youth" is to blame means your suggestion is probably not worth considering

Gruffalux · 21-08-2020 04:13PM

The cure.

https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1296721291047772160?s=19

MickeyLeari · 21-08-2020 04:13PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Up to 14 days. Very few actually take 14 days

I understand it can be up to 21 days. Lock down and close the borders.

fritzelly · 21-08-2020 04:14PM

Gruffalox wrote: »

The cure.

https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1296721291047772160?s=19

Just need some willing participants now :rolleyes:

MickeyLeari · 21-08-2020 04:14PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

The fact you think "feral youth" is to blame means your suggestion is probably not worth considering

They are not to blame. That would just be an added benefit. They built a fancy new bike path near me but I cannot use at the moment. You might have read about that.

In respect to my key lock down point - there are many doctors and academics who consider we should eradicate the virus. Opening up did not work, so maybe we give their strategy a go. Many here support that view and I disagreed for some time but maybe it is the best way.

What Username Guidelines · 21-08-2020 04:18PM

Irish Steve wrote: »

Your point? I think I just mentioned that from contact to becoming apparent is 2 to 14 days, so if you're in the pub this evening, and pick up Covid from someone that's asymptomatic, it could be Sept 5th before it becomes apparent to you that you have Covid, assuming that you do display symptoms, which may not be the case.

If it then takes up to 2 weeks for you to become sufficiently ill to require hospitalisation, that's somewhere around Sept 19th, so effectively about a month behind the infection date, which I think is the period of time I used.

So, the people in hospital today were possibly infected somwhere around July 23rd, maybe earlier, depending on how long they've been in hospital, and if we look at the number of cases per day a month ago, they were a lot lower than they are now.

As someone commented a few pages back, given the massive increase in numbers recently, the die is already cast, and all we can do now is work as hard as possible to prevent the numbers going even higher than they are today, which is going to be achieved by doing the things we already know about, separation, masks, hand hygiene and isolation of people with symptoms.

Along with the things we can all do, we need Government to step up to the plate and get their act together on testing and tracing, and if that means testing everyone in a specific area because they don't know where it's coming from, then that is what HAS to be done to stop it, not wring their collective hands together and say " we don't know".

The fact that we have a significant percentage of people across the spectrum of Irish society that seem to unable to get their heads around these fundamental issues is not helping us at all, the difference between Wuhan and Dublin is that when the Chinese did lock down, they did it across the board, and did mandatory mass testing, because the penalties for not doing so were real, and enforced, whereas the attitude here is very evidently "shore, it'll be grand".

Reminds me of a Ballymun resident who said to Joe Duffy when Charlie's tax issues came into the public domain, "shore, wasn't he a cute hoor to get away with it for as long as he did". Seems like not a lot has changed in some areas of Irish Life.

Laissez faire attitudes is what's allowing Covid to come back at us, probably assisted by the absence of testing of people coming in or back into Ireland after trips abroad.

The problem here is, 4 weeks ago our numbers were low, and the people admitted to hospital today wouldn't have been reported 4 weeks ago, they'd be the people in the pub, getting infected. If they did display symptoms 2 weeks later (pretty much the max barring some outliers) and called GP, get test, get results, get included in reported figures, you're now (at best) 3-4 days later, likely a week later.

Day 8-10 are avg for when symptoms improve or worsen resulting in hospitalisation, so it's really within the same week it's reported that a case may hit hospital.

After that, it can be a matter of days or months (ICU) before death if they are severe, so it's difficult to tell, our deaths actually peaked before infections peaked.

We're a couple of weeks into far higher reported numbers now and seeing no surge in hospitalisations just yet, if at all.

Gruffalux · 21-08-2020 04:19PM

fritzelly wrote: »

Just need some willing participants now :rolleyes:

Covidv antibodies breast milk ice cubes in smoothies would be very 2020.

Irish Steve · 21-08-2020 04:20PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Up to 14 days. Very few actually take 14 days

Aware of that, but I was trying to put the other end of the spectrum, as there are too many people trying to say that the present hospital numbers means that there's not a problem, even with the positives rising as they are.

Between incubation and then time for the symptoms to become bad enough to require hospitalisation, there is a period of time between 14 and 28 days. That point is being conveniently ignored by the people who want to continue with life as if nothing is wrong.

The problem with this and similar threads is that they are so fast moving, it's hard to keep a flow on specific discussions, and some of the weeny waving about the numbers being 2 or 3, and the like, are serving to dilute the clarity of some of the specific facts of what's actually happening.

21-08-2020 04:24PM

Irish Steve wrote: »

Aware of that, but I was trying to put the other end of the spectrum, as there are too many people trying to say that the present hospital numbers means that there's not a problem, even with the positives rising as they are.

Between incubation and then time for the symptoms to become bad enough to require hospitalisation, there is a period of time between 14 and 28 days. That point is being conveniently ignored by the people who want to continue with life as if nothing is wrong.

The problem with this and similar threads is that they are so fast moving, it's hard to keep a flow on specific discussions, and some of the weeny waving about the numbers being 2 or 3, and the like, are serving to dilute the clarity of some of the specific facts of what's actually happening.

Better to assume 5-6 days incubation. 95% of cases have symptoms by then. 14 days are outliers. Average hospitalisation is probably just over 2 weeks from infection.

ACitizenErased · 21-08-2020 04:25PM

The majority of people who end up in hospital do so after 5-8 days of symptoms.

Among patients who developed severe disease, the median time to dyspnea from the onset of illness or symptoms ranged from 5 to 8 days, the median time to acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) from the onset of illness or symptoms ranged from 8 to 12 days, and the median time to ICU admission from the onset of illness or symptoms ranged from 10 to 12 days. Clinicians should be aware of the potential for some patients to rapidly deteriorate one week after illness onset.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/clinical-guidance-management-patients.html

DevilsHaircut · 21-08-2020 04:29PM

podgeandrodge wrote: »

Perhaps one of them is an ex-wife and he has since re-married. I know people that refer to their ex-wives as their wives still. Perhaps he didn't feel the need to go into detail with you!

Whoooosh :rolleyes:

DevilsHaircut · 21-08-2020 04:33PM

Gerry Hatrick wrote: »

That's worrying for Dublin.

Not really, as the population of Dublin is 1.3 million.

caveat emptor · 21-08-2020 04:36PM

podgeandrodge wrote: »

Perhaps one of them is an ex-wife and he has since re-married. I know people that refer to their ex-wives as their wives still. Perhaps he didn't feel the need to go into detail with you!

podgeandrodge · 21-08-2020 04:37PM

DevilsHaircut wrote: »

Whoooosh :rolleyes:

Whoooosh? I'm well aware of the history of the slagging going back and forth between the 2. Only saying one never knows the full story!

Sunrise.Sunset · 21-08-2020 04:39PM

Irish Steve wrote: »

Your point? I think I just mentioned that from contact to becoming apparent is 2 to 14 days, so if you're in the pub this evening, and pick up Covid from someone that's asymptomatic, it could be Sept 5th before it becomes apparent to you that you have Covid, assuming that you do display symptoms, which may not be the case.

If it then takes up to 2 weeks for you to become sufficiently ill to require hospitalisation, that's somewhere around Sept 19th, so effectively about a month behind the infection date, which I think is the period of time I used.

So, the people in hospital today were possibly infected somwhere around July 23rd, maybe earlier, depending on how long they've been in hospital, and if we look at the number of cases per day a month ago, they were a lot lower than they are now.

As someone commented a few pages back, given the massive increase in numbers recently, the die is already cast, and all we can do now is work as hard as possible to prevent the numbers going even higher than they are today, which is going to be achieved by doing the things we already know about, separation, masks, hand hygiene and isolation of people with symptoms.

Along with the things we can all do, we need Government to step up to the plate and get their act together on testing and tracing, and if that means testing everyone in a specific area because they don't know where it's coming from, then that is what HAS to be done to stop it, not wring their collective hands together and say " we don't know".

The fact that we have a significant percentage of people across the spectrum of Irish society that seem to unable to get their heads around these fundamental issues is not helping us at all, the difference between Wuhan and Dublin is that when the Chinese did lock down, they did it across the board, and did mandatory mass testing, because the penalties for not doing so were real, and enforced, whereas the attitude here is very evidently "shore, it'll be grand".

Reminds me of a Ballymun resident who said to Joe Duffy when Charlie's tax issues came into the public domain, "shore, wasn't he a cute hoor to get away with it for as long as he did". Seems like not a lot has changed in some areas of Irish Life.

Laissez faire attitudes is what's allowing Covid to come back at us, probably assisted by the absence of testing of people coming in or back into Ireland after trips abroad.

Very good post.

I have a friend working in a private capacity. She's a home care worker as a nanny. She's working for a GP and another professional and the public health guidelines seems to have gone by the parents heads. There has been plenty of gatherings within the family. There was no isolation with colds and no testing for covid even though and diagnosed as 100% not covid even though there was no test.

If a GP can't understand to keep contacts low to minimise contracting the virus and isolate if feeling unwell to minimise spreading the virus what hope does the rest of the population have?

My friend is now at a loss. She wants minimise chances of contracting the virus but her job doesn't allow that. She wants to protect her family from the virus. She's in a vulnerable situation. Small children need close contact for their care. She has no PPE to protect herself and the parents don't seem to care to isolate their family away from her when they have some symptoms. They are also actively flaunting guidelines putting her more at risk.
She can't find a new job quick enough.

caveat emptor · 21-08-2020 04:42PM

Another good news talk summary.

https://twitter.com/NewstalkFM/status/1296823668799045634?s=20

DevilsHaircut · 21-08-2020 04:42PM

speckle wrote: »

Been a bit out of the loop. Question re my maths and covid.
Is 35% of 1733 = 606 responders
and
33 postives for antibodies out of 606= 5%???
Tried looking back for posts re sligo/Dublin antibody results post here so apologies if already answered.

There was an abysmal response to the antibody survey; only 35% of those selected agreed to take part. They 'weighted' the results.

No really #InThisTogether.

28 antibody positive in Dublin, and 5 in Sligo (=3.1%, 0.6%).

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/scopi/SCOPI%20report%20preliminary%20results%20final%20version.pdf?utm_source=social&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=scopireportresults&utm_content=20.08.2020

is_that_so · 21-08-2020 04:43PM

Irish Steve wrote: »

Aware of that, but I was trying to put the other end of the spectrum, as there are too many people trying to say that the present hospital numbers means that there's not a problem, even with the positives rising as they are.

Between incubation and then time for the symptoms to become bad enough to require hospitalisation, there is a period of time between 14 and 28 days. That point is being conveniently ignored by the people who want to continue with life as if nothing is wrong.

The problem with this and similar threads is that they are so fast moving, it's hard to keep a flow on specific discussions, and some of the weeny waving about the numbers being 2 or 3, and the like, are serving to dilute the clarity of some of the specific facts of what's actually happening.

The argument is that many of these new cases are not happening to at risk groups and that their symptoms, on the whole, are mild enough not to support this hypothesis. We are also containing the spread and finding cases a lot better than back in March.

ACitizenErased · 21-08-2020 04:44PM

DevilsHaircut wrote: »

There was an abysmal response to the antibody survey; only 35% of those selected agreed to take part. They 'weighted' the results.

No really #InThisTogether.

28 antibody positive in Dublin, and 5 in Sligo (=3.1%, 0.6%).

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/scopi/SCOPI%20report%20preliminary%20results%20final%20version.pdf?utm_source=social&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=scopireportresults&utm_content=20.08.2020

That's actually laughable results for a study.

BorneTobyWilde · 21-08-2020 04:46PM

Ellen blew a lot of people Wednesday night,Shirley helped, If virus is airborne as they claim, the its blown out to sea, a lot of what was in the air? Is that even possible?

Ger Roe · 21-08-2020 04:48PM

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Ellen blew a lot of people Wednesday night,Shirley helped, If virus is airborne as they claim, the its blown out to sea, a lot of what was in the air? Is that even possible?

Ehhhh, No!.

drunkmonkey · 21-08-2020 04:48PM

froog wrote: »

anyway my positive post for the day:

both global cases and deaths are trending downwards just about.

and in ireland, it doesn't appear like we are going completely out of control like the first time around, i would tentatively suggest we may have plateaued at this 50-200 cases a day level and hopefully that will come down.

We didn't have a first time around if the antibodie study was anything to go by, 99% still to be infected. We had a cock up with the nursing homes.

MickeyLeari · 21-08-2020 04:49PM

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Ellen blew a lot of people Wednesday night,Shirley helped, If virus is airborne as they claim, the its blown out to sea, a lot of what was in the air? Is that even possible?

That’s an interesting theory. But could it have blown the virus from Kildare to Dublin and not reached the sea in which case we are in trouble.

Jim_Hodge · 21-08-2020 04:50PM

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Ellen blew a lot of people Wednesday night,Shirley helped, If virus is airborne as they claim, the its blown out to sea, a lot of what was in the air? Is that even possible?

Sorry, that's so ridiculous it's quite funny.

BorneTobyWilde · 21-08-2020 04:50PM

Ger Roe wrote: »

Ehhhh, No!.

Yea well I recall someone on radio claiming someone sneezing on a beach could hit the person at other end of beach if wind was going in that direction

DevilsHaircut · 21-08-2020 04:51PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

That's actually laughable results for a study.

T-cells, bro.

They don't stop you getting infected and infecting others.

Covid 19 Part XXI-27,908 in ROI (1,777 deaths) 6,647 in NI (559 deaths)(22/08)Read OP

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