Covid 19 Part XXI-27,908 in ROI (1,777 deaths) 6,647 in NI (559 deaths)(22/08)Read OP

seamus · 17-08-2020 12:10PM

bb1234567 wrote: »

This prediction was so evidently going to false even when he announced it , it was clear as day, but you've posters being called out as 'armchair epidimiologists ' to in any way question the theories of somebody like this

I think you're being unfair there. Armchair experts get called out whenever they exist.

A man with a PhD and a Nobel prize is an expert in his area and nothing more. This guy I'm sure has a fair handle on biophysics and chemistry, but he has no business making commentary on epidemiology.

This is a classic example of the Dunning-Kruger effect. I have no doubt that the good doctor in his work has dipped in and out of immunology and worked with immunologists on some research.

This has given him an inflated sense of competence in the areas of immunology and epidemiology, to the point that he feels comfortable making obviously stupid statements like this.

What makes it worse is that someone of his credentials should be completely aware of this effect, and also of the fact that the things he says are automatically assumed to be "more right" than someone else's, regardless of the topic. So he should be taking far more care in what he says.

seamus · 17-08-2020 12:12PM

little bess wrote: »

Yes, and gp buddy retweeting a couple of gp’s who are concerned about uptick in referrals

I do suspect we'll see something of a paranoia effect, where people who know they haven't been taking proper precautions, suddenly freak out when they get a scratchy throat or a runny nose.

No harm at all if people are taking time for some self-reflection.

podgeandrodge · 17-08-2020 12:14PM

little bess wrote: »

Yes, and gp buddy retweeting a couple of gp’s who are concerned about uptick in referrals

https://twitter.com/eimearmccarthy8/status/1295100484869672960

seriously, whatever about someone re-posting it saying "Worrying times indeed" (always the ones wearing a mask in their twitter profile

), does a doctor need to be saying "Going to be a long hard Winter"?? ffs.

KrustyUCC · 17-08-2020 12:17PM

hotmail.com wrote: »

They are gearing us up for new restrictions.

Hope you're wrong but wouldn't be surprised either

podgeandrodge · 17-08-2020 12:18PM

bb1234567 wrote: »

https://mobile.twitter.com/mlevitt_np2013/status/1287036738565738496?lang=en

So the darling Nobel Prize winner Michael Levitt has been completely wrong about his prediction of the pandemic effectively totally ceasing in the USA at 170k deaths. Now they are at 173k deaths and over 225k excess deaths and no end in sight to the epidemic there. Now I think it time to stop and question those who hold unwavering belief in certain individuals opinion's just because of their reputation, because time and time again it has turned out wrong since the covid outbreak began.
This prediction was so evidently going to false even when he announced it , it was clear as day, but you've posters being called out as 'armchair epidimiologists ' to in any way question the theories of somebody like this . If anything this pandemic has taught its that well regarded and intelligent scientists and researchers are more than capable of talking out their ass in order to please certain audiences and let them hear what they want to.

Fully agree. People got very caught up in automatically believing everything people like this said, just because they got a couple of forecasts correct in the past. He predicted in March that Israel would only have 10 Covid deaths. A bit out on that one.

JP Liz V1 · 17-08-2020 12:18PM

theballz wrote: »

Does anyone know if the bar in question on Dame street, Berlin was allowed open again last night?
I know the owner came out and said they were making some of decision yesterday - keen to understand whether this happened or not.

Equally, has there been any reports of the Garda following up on this?

These guys need to be made an example of.

Was it a private paid party of an "influencer" or open to the public that night?

JP Liz V1 · 17-08-2020 12:20PM

GazzaL wrote: »

It's a disgrace that DublinPHET and the Dublin Government are threatening to lock down the 25 counties because of a rise of cases in DUBLIN, and DUBLIN thickos gyrating in Berlin DUBLIN 2. Worse than the Black and Tans.

Can Dublin only be "lockdown" or added to LOK group

Loafing Oaf · 17-08-2020 12:21PM

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

Can Dublin only be "lockdown" or added to LOK group

Then that zone would be well and truly LOKD:P

Hego Damask · 17-08-2020 12:21PM

BOOO!!!!

growleaves · 17-08-2020 12:22PM

A man with a PhD and a Nobel prize is an expert in his area and nothing more. This guy I'm sure has a fair handle on biophysics and chemistry, but he has no business making commentary on epidemiology.

I think you're very wrong here. The micro-specialisation in science is a mistake, and in theory scientific theses are supposed to be verifiable from other areas of science. In practice they may be too specialised now but if a Nobel-winning physicist and chemist can't even share comments on these matters (and he would be subject to rebuttals from every epidemiologist in the world) that that is utterly dire.

The cult of expertise has now turned into the cult of micro-expertise. Of course in practice people on this forum who tout this micro-expertise will make unprincipled exceptions for GPs or other medical scientists if they seem to verify the official line (e.g. in the Masks thread there was evidence cited from a GP that masks are effective).

Also if someone doesn't like what an epidemiologist with an alternative opinion says, they are often dismissed on spurious grounds. On this thread a senior theoretical epidemiologist from Oxford University was called "the Mad Mystic" by one commenter

Boggles · 17-08-2020 12:28PM

seamus wrote: »

I think you're being unfair there. Armchair experts get called out whenever they exist.

A man with a PhD and a Nobel prize is an expert in his area and nothing more. This guy I'm sure has a fair handle on biophysics and chemistry, but he has no business making commentary on epidemiology.

This is a classic example of the Dunning-Kruger effect. I have no doubt that the good doctor in his work has dipped in and out of immunology and worked with immunologists on some research.

This has given him an inflated sense of competence in the areas of immunology and epidemiology, to the point that he feels comfortable making obviously stupid statements like this.

What makes it worse is that someone of his credentials should be completely aware of this effect, and also of the fact that the things he says are automatically assumed to be "more right" than someone else's, regardless of the topic. So he should be taking far more care in what he says.

I wouldn't worry about him, he was universally ignored.

Confined to Youtube and the odd piece in the paper.

It is no real surprise, a courtesy 10 second look at his ramblings and straight away you know he was a dangerous fúckwit peddling nonsense.

He wouldn't be the first Nobel Prize winner to lose his faculties later on in life.

growleaves · 17-08-2020 12:29PM

In fact Oxford University's diseases specialist labs questioning of the Imperial College model and their alternate suppositions were insta-dismissed by the Guardian and Financial Times back in March, with commenters who don't understand these matters (by their own definition, since they aren't epidemiologists) echoing those dismissals.

Boggles · 17-08-2020 12:30PM

podgeandrodge wrote: »

seriously, whatever about someone re-posting it saying "Worrying times indeed" (always the ones wearing a mask in their twitter profile ), does a doctor need to be saying "Going to be a long hard Winter"?? ffs.

It's always a long hard winter for GPs.

robbiezero · 17-08-2020 12:30PM

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Ah Mick lighten up have you lost your sense of humour?
I was only joking.

Only misery merchants have no sense of humour.

But this in my backyardism will literally be the death of people. A relative of mine died from covid19 and another young mother still has deep fatigue months later.

Just because you dont know them personally doesnt change the fact it happened.

And Im incredibly sick of our society having to learn the hard way. Jesus what kind of imbeciles are we with ALL the warnings we have had. With the global connections and almost instant comunication and still we dismiss the evidence until we 'see' it with our own eyes. And then its too late and your knee deep in disaster crying I didnt know.

And perhaps in feb it was more understandable. But now. 6 months in and STILL the misery merchant and panic mongering labeld are being thrown around.

YES i am miserable. And rightly so. Its a miserable situation being made worse by morons who wont take simple steps to curb the bug.

And excuse me if trying to warn people is panic mongering. I have been panic mongering here since feb and unfortunately was spot on.

Funnily enough i wasnt paniced myself until now.
Ive been reading about re-infection you see.
This is a coronavirus and on average immunity to one lasts about 9 months. And the CDC reduced that to 3.
That got me curious so i started looking into it.

While there is only one study of reinfection done. (And it was a small cohort) it is a thing.
And anecdotally, 2nd time is more severe.
If you were asymptomatic the first time, its mild symptoms the 2nd. Like the phillipines minister.
Or the chinese lady who was severe first time and died the 2nd time. Then i wonder what happens 3rd or 4th times?

Now again, there has been only one study done. And noone knows if these people are outliers. But if we lose immunity to every other coronoavirus after 9 months why do we believe this one will react any differently?

That is my current misery/fear Mick.
Forgive me if i tried to lighten it with a joke at your expense.

What are the simple steps to curb the bug?

growleaves · 17-08-2020 12:32PM

There you go people, a Nobel prize winner in science is a "f*ckwit" and his theories don't even deserve consideration more than a few seconds glance. Much better that you should listen to 'Boggles', 'hmmm', 'raind' and other posters who presumably aren't "f*ckwits". They know that the official experts in officialdom are officially correct and other scientists are unofficial and don't have the approval of the official people.

17-08-2020 12:33PM

growleaves wrote: »

I think you're very wrong here. The micro-specialisation in science is a mistake, and in theory scientific theses are supposed to be verifiable from other areas of science. In practice they may be too specialised now but if a Nobel-winning physicist and chemist can't even share comments on these matters (and he would be subject to rebuttals from every epidemiologist in the world) that that is utterly dire.

The cult of expertise has now turned into the cult of micro-expertise. Of course in practice people on this forum who tout this micro-expertise will make unprincipled exceptions for GPs or other medical scientists if they seem to verify the official line (e.g. in the Masks thread there was evidence cited from a GP that masks are effective).

Also if someone doesn't like what an epidemiologist with an alternative opinion says, they are often dismissed on spurious grounds. On this thread a senior theoretical epidemiologist from Oxford University was called "the Mad Mystic" by one commenter

Another huge misconception on here if the "peer review" process which is often used to imply its indisputable fact. Peer reviewed means it has scientific merit, not that it is settled science. This only arrives once the scientific community has challenge, replicated, ruled out alternate explanations and arrived at a settled consensus. A peer review in and of itself is just establishing whether a paper, study etc is of sufficient merit to be entered into the discussion. A paper can be wrong but still merit scientific consideration.

Levitt has been spectacularly wrong however on this

JP Liz V1 · 17-08-2020 12:35PM

Jay Bourke (Berlin Dame Lane pub owner) on the radio as bad as Maria Bailey interview

Eod100 · 17-08-2020 12:35PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Well its kind of getting your priorities right.

If NPHET meet this afternoon with others to be briefed after they aren't going to be rushing back to take a press conference with the same questions being asked as the last one.

Its bottom of the list of priorities for them today you would imagine.

Wouldn't be reading anything into it.

Yeah but part of the meeting's brief is to consider other measures. Cancelling on it's own not a sign of anything but it's that and wider context.

Boggles · 17-08-2020 12:36PM

growleaves wrote: »

There you go people, a Nobel prize winner in science is a "f*ckwit" and his theories don't even deserve consideration more than a few seconds glance. Much better that you should listen to 'Boggles', 'hmmm', 'raind' and other posters who presumably aren't "f*ckwits". They know that the official experts in officialdom are officially correct and other scientists are unofficial and don't have the approval of the official people.

He "miscalculated" Irelands population by 300% and declared that we had reached herd immunity a couple of weeks ago.

What would you call a person who peddles that?

Dangerous Fúckwit?

caveat emptor · 17-08-2020 12:37PM

growleaves wrote: »

There you go people, a Nobel prize winner in science is a "f*ckwit" and his theories don't even deserve consideration more than a few seconds glance. Much better that you should listen to 'Boggles', 'hmmm', 'raind' and other posters who presumably aren't "f*ckwits". They know that the official experts in officialdom are officially correct and other scientists are unofficial and don't have the approval of the official people.

Have a look at this? Do you think he is right given it's his subject matter or should he be dismissed as a lopper.
I don't know but he won a noble prize for helping discover HIV.

https://twitter.com/Aryanwarlord/status/1251576545774194688?s=20

17-08-2020 12:37PM

growleaves wrote: »

There you go people, a Nobel prize winner in science is a "f*ckwit" and his theories don't even deserve consideration more than a few seconds glance. Much better that you should listen to 'Boggles', 'hmmm', 'raind' and other posters who presumably aren't "f*ckwits". They know that the official experts in officialdom are officially correct and other scientists are unofficial and don't have the approval of the official people.

I think Boggles may include me with the "f*ckwits" given I disagree with him about 80% of the time

Micky 32 · 17-08-2020 12:39PM

SeaBreezes wrote: »

That is my current misery/fear Mick.
Forgive me if i tried to lighten it with a joke at your expense.

Nah your post is still irrelevent to me so i’lll only qoute what is relevent.

All I did was post that a handful of people i know quite well contracted Covid 19 and fully recovered. Certain posters didn’t like it and tried to make out it was lies because it didn’t fit in their doom and gloom little world. Pathetic.

growleaves · 17-08-2020 12:40PM

Deleted User wrote: »

I think Boggles may include me with the "f*ckwits" given I disagree with him about 80% of the time

Lol okay. That puts you in the company of Nobel laureates though

robbiezero · 17-08-2020 12:41PM

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

Jay Bourke (Berlin Dame Lane pub owner) on the radio as bad as Maria Bailey interview

Baffles me why people in his or MBs situation give interviews. Only stoking the fire.
Lie low for a few weeks and the wave of outrage will pass and be forgotten about.

Boggles · 17-08-2020 12:41PM

Deleted User wrote: »

I think Boggles may include me with the "f*ckwits" given I disagree with him about 80% of the time

Absolutely not.

But if you came out and declared the population of Ireland was 1.7 million and we have reached herd immunity, everything is grand. You would deserve to be called such. Correct?

Anyway I'm an optimistic realist, if you are disagreeing with me 80% of time you are doing it wrong.

17-08-2020 12:41PM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Have a look at this? Do you think he is right given it's his subject matter or should he be dismissed as a lopper.
I don't know but he won a noble prize for helping discover HIV.

https://twitter.com/Aryanwarlord/status/1251576545774194688?s=20

Is astonishing how many believe a Nobel implies the holder is never wrong. The list of winners who disintegrated into a level of madness in later life as their field passed them by and they became irrelevant is long.

Jimi H · 17-08-2020 12:42PM

We’re in a difficult position. The good news is that the recent spike in numbers seems to be mainly people with a younger age profile. Clearly though, if the numbers get out of control, we’ll find it more and more difficult to protect the vulnerable.

I’ve listened to some GPs and doctors from hospitals on the radio over the last few days who are very concerned about the potential strain on the health services as we open the schools and get closer towards winter.

The message from the government seems to be a little lost now and I think we’re all tired of it and suffering from a little fatigue. I find it hard to see how the current strategy of trying to control the numbers will work, especially if the public aren’t on board. Elimination has been touted a few times and I can’t see any other solution although I’m aware of the difficulties of agreeing a cross border solution and restricting overseas travel. It’s the only way I can see how we can open up again without the disease spiralling out of control.

Boggles · 17-08-2020 12:43PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Is astonishing how many believe a Nobel implies the holder is never wrong. The list of winners who disintegrated into a level of madness in later life as their field passed them by and they became irrelevant is long.

Not only that, the amount of back stabbing and thievery that goes on in order to win one of those awards is startling.

17-08-2020 12:44PM

Boggles wrote: »

Absolutely not.

But if you came out and declared the population of Ireland was 1.7 million and we have reached herd immunity, everything is grand. You would deserve to be called such. Correct?

Anyway I'm an optimistic realist, if you are disagreeing with me 80% of time you are doing it wrong.

And here was me thinking I was being the realistic optimist here

podgeandrodge · 17-08-2020 12:44PM

Boggles wrote: »

It's always a long hard winter for GPs.

Sure. But that particular GP's use of "It's going to be a long hard winter" was pitched in a different way entirely, hysteria type pitch!

Covid 19 Part XXI-27,908 in ROI (1,777 deaths) 6,647 in NI (559 deaths)(22/08)Read OP

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